Archive for May, 2006

Wednesday Wrap-Up

Well we got our gains but they weren’t very strong although there was a nice rally right at the end, reversing an afternoon sell-off.

Maybe it’s my sunny disposition but I think we’re going up. I’m not willing to bet we’re going up but I will be quick to get on board if we do. Looking at the Dow, I think we may bob around the 11,100 line for maybe a week and then head back north. I was very encouraged this morning when oil was down and the indexes were up but disappointed at the afternoon’s reversal of leadership. It was pointed out to me however that it is the end of the month and the 2% rise in the energy sector may have been attributable to “window dressing” by funds who were heavy into oil – we will see tomorrow.

The Dow must not go below 11,000 and the S&P must not go below 1,250 but I expect the S&P to have some respect for its 200 dma at 1,258 while the Nasdaq needs to stay above 2,150 until it can make it back over its 200 at 2,230.

If we can make it through next week without dropping below my targets, by Thursday I will want to start shopping so let’s hope for the best.

Rice made a podium statement regarding Iran and had a very strange tone in the opening that reversed at the end. I don’t know who wrote it but it didn’t seem like good diplomacy to me:

Oil traded down .75 for the day to $71.30 but the oil stocks reversed around 1pm in a move that was indicated by Valero at noon. Essentially the initial reaction to Rice’s speech was bearish for oil but after talking it over the traders decided to keep the Iran fear factor in play.

Gold traders were very concerned about a sudden outbreak of peace and gold dropped $11 to finish at $649. As you can see below, the fear factor was almost identical to oil as the Iran statement came out at 11:30 with both commodities dropping 2% and holding there until oil was pumped up in the afternoon and gold followed just a bit in case something was really up:

Another 2pm factor were the FMOC minutes which only seemed to cloud the issue of rate hikes further. At…
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Watch Out Wednesday

Today cannot be a good day unless the Dow gains 400 points. This is not likely as the Nikkei lost 400 points last night although Europe is taking things fairly well so far this morning. India’s economy is growing at a 9.3% pace, 30% better than expected and we’ve already gotten good numbers from Japan and China looks like it’s growing around 10% as well. India’s growth is largely in the service sector, as anyone with a telephone knows, but China does put pressure on commodities, especially oil. We need to get used to rising commodity prices as the falling dollar is here to stay as the rest of the world is growing faster than we are. Fed policies of fighting inflation by keeping the economy in check may have made sense when the US was the world’s greatest economy by a mile but 20 years of persuing that agenda have pulled us back into the pack with many contenders nipping at our heels. As we discussed last night, the S&P will be the one to watch today but anything less than a full reversal of yesterday’s losses will only confirm the alarming downtrend we have been seeing. The SOX are just destroying any chance of a Nasdaq recovery and all 30 Dow components were losers yesterday so at this point all we can do is keep in cash and just cheer for a quick wipeout, maybe another 10% down, so we can get back to bargain hunting. Gold is at a serious inflection point, hovering below it’s dollar adjusted 50 dma of $675. If it breaks through there it should fly past $700 again to test $730. If it is rejected there, we may be seeing $580 again. Oil took a turn down in Europe today, erasing yesterday’s BS gains as traders run in fear of today’s inventory report which will almost certainly show a build despite the holiday driving weekend. The dollar is down 7% from April and oil is at $72, which seems high but 93% of $73 is $68 so we are actually back near the top of the channel we’ve been in all year, not breaking higher as it looks on a chart. Again, I am still the only person in America who adjusts for the dollar but trust me, I’m right and everyone else is wrong – so oil, on the above…
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Terrible Tuesday Wrap Up

If that was a test we just failed!

The Dow did break it’s technical, it crossed 11,100 on the way down to 11,094. That puts us very close to a very terrible ten thousand level… The Nasdaq retreated right back to 2,164, 30 points above last week’s low spike but just barely above the low settle of 2,160 below which we are sure to test 2,025, which is where I now want it as THAT may finally be enough to consolidate for a real rally. The S&P was equally pathetic and landed right on the 200 dma at 1,259 but still above last week’s low spike of 1,245.

That makes the S&P tomorrow’s key indicator as any downward open will put it in a terrible spot. CNBC said decliners led advancers 4:1 but I challenge you to find that many positive stocks. Worst news of the day was that volume finally came in during the last hour and losses accelerated into the bell (note to the S&P – stopping at the 200 dma because you ran out of time to go lower is not what we call holding the line!).

Oil went up but, as expected, oil stocks went down anyway. Tomorrow’s inventory should prove very interesting. This is holding in with my theory that demand was poor this weekend and those in the know are selling ahead of the reports.

Gold got off to a good start but settled flat, also as expected. As these commodity moves are occurring against a falling dollar (lowest since last April but still 5% higher than winter ’04) they are actually bigger than they look.

All in all, a terrible, terrible market with virtually no redeeming qualities whatsoever – that probably means we rally tomorrow but I’m not going to hold my breath but my bull market detector has been going off (Yahoo Finance is slow) although it could also be a bear rush.


What the heck are people selling Google for?

The stock kissed the 200 dma today in the last 15 minutes of trading and looks more likely to break down to $332 than go up to $395. Why is this happening?

Their Q1 market share is up to 50% (6% better than last year).

Q1 Internet ad sales increased 38% from last year to $3.9Bn.

The Q2 estimate for Google is $2.19, even…
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Testing Tuesday

The world markets have lost their confidence over the weekend with Asia and Europe both off in the .5-1% range over fears of a global economic slowdown driven by rising rates and commodity pricing driving inflation (same as it ever was). Smaller world markets are also facing a lot of pressure as doomsayers are predicting their dependence on foreign capital makes them a crash risk (it does). What they don’t say is that perhaps the fact that the US, Russia, China, India, Europe… all have so much foreign investing in their economies is because we are actually starting to achieve a fluid Global Economy and are moving towards a more open and efficient World Market just like we always wanted to! I imagine the economists who warn of these risks are the old economists who still think the boarders between European countries mean something more than arbitrary lines to the people who take $99 round trip weekends to 20 different countries the way we would travel from state to state. Today’s Dow tragedy will be people coming to their senses over GM (up 15% last week) and Wal-Mart coming in with sales guidance at the low end of the range. Exxon should also trade down as nothing blew up over the long weekend (although Iran continues to be a problem) so it will be amazing if the Dow can manage a positive day. We need a lot more than a positive day today to confirm a rally, we need about 2% in the next 2 days from all the indices to demonstrate that last week was anything more than a bounce. The Dow is, unfortunately, key as it is sitting just below its 50 dma at 11,280 and has not reversed an upturn through the 50 since September, when it faked a recovery into an even larger drop (but at least set us up for the October rally). Relative international calm is being offset somewhat by a falling dollar on commodities as gold holds steady despite the falling dollar. Oil is being ratcheted up on riots in Afghanistan and Iran taunting the US, saying we couldn’t invade them if we wanted to because we don’t have the troops for it (true) and the upcoming hurricane season which are all being pointed to to justify the 100% increase in oil prices in 24 months. One thing nobody talks about…
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Long Weekend Wrap-Up

Wow, who’d have thought we’d end this week positive? Great finish – I got my 10 pts on the Nasdaq and the Dow and the S&P finished nicely as well with the S&P just getting over 1,280 right at the bell! Best news is that the commodities did not lead this rally which is very important as we will need new leadership to withstand a pullback that is very likely on Tuesday if we have a relatively calm geopolitical weekend. Oil finished flat at $71.35 which fits in with our theory that yesterday’s action was the holiday weekend buying coming a day early. AAA anticipates a flat year for the number of trips but also highlighted the possibility that trips may be shorter in length. If this combination leads to a demand surprise to the downside it will call into question the whole Summer driving season, even with Hurricane season looming just around the corner. While we are hearing a lot of talk about how an 800 mile round trip (seems to be the average for “big” driving vacations) “only” costs $40 more than it did last year, the analysts are not taking into account the grinding toll of an extra $10 per week per car for a family that has been sucking up vacation funds all year. Gold was down today until they closed the capital because someone thought they heard gunshots in the parking lot which in the end turned out to be an air hammer but it gave oil and gold traders a chance to push their commodities up into the long weekend – talk about jumpy! I held some positions into the weekend, which is very scary but I liked the finish so we just have to hope the World doesn’t collapse while we are on vacation! ====================================== We had a very good trading week because we stayed in cash and caught the turn at just the right time but, since we only had two actual trading days there is not much to review. ADBE went nowhere but that is expected into earnings and the $30s dropped a nickle to .70. AET was flat after several false starts and the $40s are still .60. DRI is not lighting the world on fire but it is moving nicely and the Oct $40s are $1.35 (up 10%). GE is being a little pokey but the Jul $35s…
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Friday Morning

Personal income was up .5 (a little low/good) and spending was .6, just what was expected but the PCE deflator hit 2.1 which indicates some potential inflation which our markets may worry over but on the whole these are very good numbers. Asia is up triple digits and Europe is looking strong again today so anything less than a .5% move up today will be a big disappointment, even on a short trading day. The Dow and the S&P erased a week of losses yesterday but the Nasdaq still has to make about 10 more points to move past “weak bounce” status. Without the Nasdaq getting it in gear, this “rally” will not last! Oil and gold are still heading up slighlty and should stay up ahead of a long weekend which gives us a whole extra day for something terrible to happen. As long as we see this consistent pattern of trading we know the markets remain jittery about international tensions. Volume should be light today and anything can happen but junior traders (the ones that don’t get to stretch the 3 day weekend into 4 days) can usually be expected to keep the status quo which one would hope will be flat to up today. If the world is kind we can expect a real rally on Tuesday but today is a day I will maintain cautious optimism. The note auction went poorly yesterday so watch for creep on the 10 year, over 5% might turn the markets back down. The Enron verdict sends a message that the markets are being regulated and corporate shenanigans will not be tolerated (when they are caught in such an obvious way at least). Overall this should be good for the markets but in the short-term it is worrying tech and health investors, especially in light of the recent options investigations. ===================================== I’m watching ADBE (6/15) as it looks way oversold but the last quarter wasn’t so great so it’s a tough call. Estimates have drifted down to .30 from .32 in the past 3 months so they don’t need much to pull a beat. Unit sales were good at HPQ and Dell and ORCL and SAP are turning around. The $30s are .75 and expire 4 days after earnings so this is a potential wipeout on bad earnings but could be a great play if they surprise. This is one ugly…
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Thursday Wrap-Up

Well that was much better! It was touch and go for a while as the Nasdaq had a terrible time getting over 2,180 but around 3pm the markets finally decided up was the right way to go. I am very pleased with today’s action and hopefully the Dow can test 11,275 (the 50 dma) tomorrow, just 64 points away. Even better than the majors were the NYSE, with a 1.5% gain and the Russell, which had a 2% gain on the day indicating a nice broad rally. The SOX are still failing to participate but many of those companies are held up in the current options scandal and it is that, rather than technical or fundamental reasons, that is holding back that sector. MRVL is the poster child for a good stock that is being weighed down by the stocks it is associated with. Oil went crazy today and mineral stocks staged a comeback so 1/3 of the rally came from the sectors we would rather see stay down for now. Crude rushed up to $71.32 on long weekend short covering (never short oil into a weekend) with the NYMEX closing early tomorrow. Gold ran up $11 to $648.50 which was all it took for the oversold gold miners to post impressive gains. The Enron trial is finally over and the convictions are good for the market as it improves investor confidence if there are teeth to corporate investigations. It looks like John Snow is finally leaving the White House, another level of uncertainty that needed to be removed. It was a very good day but only a bounce until we get past a 50% retracement of losses so it will take another day of similar gains to get us back on track – that’s a tall order for the day before a holiday weekend! ===================================== I thought we missed the boat on EBay and Yahoo but they just kept going up and up with Ebay logging 12% and Yahoo putting up another 3.5% for the day. Google never quite came down to where we wanted it but I flipped to the $420s in comments and they seem to be working so far at $3.10. The $410s never got below $3.40 and ended the day at $5. XMSR missed my bottom target by .21 and made a nice recovery to $14.25 but SIRI was the star we expected it to…
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Thursday Morning

Asia had another big sell-off today with the Nikkei down 213 and the Hang Seng off 125 while Europe is well up today on holidy trading so it will be gut check time here in the states to see if we are benefiting from global rotation or part of a global collapse.

The dollar is enjoying a bit of a bounce and the pre-markets look promising so we’ll keep our fingers crossed! If this is not a good day on the markets then just SELL SELL SELL and walk away for a while.

As is usual when oil prices start falling, Boone Pickens is a special guest on CNBC telling everyone why they should all be investing in oil and how it will hit $100 based on fundamentals (he actually just said “what terror premium?” in answer to a question). Natural Gas invnetories are out at 10:30 and should set the direction for the day.

In addition to the Valero Rule, keep your eye on CHK for how that data is being taken by a pure play. Expect in the very least a sucker’s rally in oil stocks going into the report with probable shorting opportunities coming from XOM, CVX, OII and VLO assuming they open up, stay up and turn down after the report.

Gold bounced slightly but does not look very good and copper was way off as well so without a big recovery in housing starts we can’t expect a recovery very soon. As I said on the weekend, there is a huge boom in building construction but CNBC doesn’t know how to measure it so it gets ignored but I will be looking to get in once these metals bottom out.

We need a greater than 1% move to confirm an uptrend vs a bounce so unless the Dow goes up 150 points I’m just not going to get too excited. Still in day trading mode, taking profits off the table asap – it worked great yesterday so no reason to change.


None of these trades should be taken seriously unless we finish above 1,260 on the SPX (not much to ask for) and over 2,180 on the Nasdaq (I could care less what the Dow does). Anything less than this is a very sad bounce so unless the markets look strong all day, I will be taking very few postions.

MRVL was doing great…
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Wednesday Wrap-Up

As soon as I figure out what those funny green arrows are next to the indexes, I’ll let you know – I vaguely remember seeing something like that once…

Well, while this is nothing to have a party over, it certainly beats the alternative so let’s enjoy it while we can. Now we have to see if we can break barriers on the way up but we’ll worry about that in the morning.

Today I was encouraged by GE finally moving up, HPQ continuing up and YHOO just making a regular event of 3% gains.

Speaking of Yahoo, my super patent pending market meter is going green again as Yahoo Financial is getting slow again, indicating interest is picking back up.

It’s still a minefield out there and if you don’t follow the trading rules and take profits quickly you still risk terrible reversals but, on the bright side, most of our picks are working which means we are getting a handle on this mess!

This was another big volume day where we didn’t turn down so a real bottom may be forming but Europe sure didn’t think so today and the Vonage IPO was a disaster (down 12%) but that may just indicate that people aren’t idiots rather than being a comment on market conditions.

EBAY suffered from the poor IPO showing as it makes their Skype acquisition seem not quite so smart but I think Vonage did poorly in large part because no amount of money is going to help them beat EBay, who can afford to give Skype away to their 300M users.

As I said this morning, we certainly didn’t miss much staying mainly in cash as most postions are still down for the day and, now that there are definate signs of life, we can pick the correct sectors to place our bets on tomorrow.


The XOM spread payed both ways today with the $62.50s opening at .50 and jumping to .80 where they stayed most of the afternoon. The $57.50 puts opened at .75 and ran all the way to $1.35 before pulling back on the afternoon run up.

COP $60 puts were a thing of beauty peaking out with a head fake on the oil report and dropping all aftenoon but the .95 price was too rich for me and I missed the run to $1.60.

CVX $60 puts
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Watch Out Wednesday

This bird flu thing needs to go away if we are going to get anywhere today. Japan was up 300 points on a drop in the Yen but the Hang Seng went down a bit on Yuan appreciation news. Europe is generally down by over a point and our pre markets are all over the place so it’s a real “enter at your own risk” kind of day. This will be our last chance to turn it around or we may face another 5% drop in the markets so today will be very tough to call, especially with the Flu wild card. Gold is down $7 in Europe to $666 which you can interpret as a sign if you wish or possibly that people aren’t worried about bird flu or that people believe bird flu willl decimate the world economy to such an extent that not even gold will hold value. Oil is trading down too and it’s inventory day so we may get a wild correction there at 10:30 (after the usual head fake). Oil puts will probably be the only thing I play today but there are few obvious plays there as they ended yesterday with only a weak bounce on the whole. Yesterday’s buying was very artificial and could be quickly reversed. I should have taken that vacation yesterday as this is not a market worth playing until this Flu panic goes away (of course, if it turns out to be justified, then watch out!). Let’s watch the S&P again as it is now the 200 dma at 1,260 while the Dow is resting righ on the psychological level of 11,100 and a fall into the 10,900s will probably panic investors into another wave of selling. I cannot emphasize a cash position strongly enough in this market. With all indices below technical levels the chance of missing a large rally is very slim while the chance of participating in a crash is getting better every day. Even if your cash position is 75% of what it was you will be better off than if you lose another 25% of your virtual portfolio as you only have to make a 30% comeback from 75% but you have to make a 100% comeback from 50%! ===================================== I’m not going into any oil play unless it goes the wrong way prior to inventory so I can buy cheap and I…
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Phil's Favorites

How Does the Stock Market Bottom?


How Does the Stock Market Bottom?

Courtesy of 

Despite the recent selloff, things are still relatively fine. I know nobody wants to hear this right now, but the S&P 500 is still up double digits over the last year and 36% over the last three years. What has people shook, understandably, is the speed of this decline.

Depending on where stocks close today, we could be looking at a 10% haircut in just five sessions. Over the last 20 years, this only happened during the Yuan devaluation in 2015, the Eurozone crisis in 2011, the GFC (global financial crisis) in ’08 and ’09, and the dotcom bubble in ’00, &rsqu...

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Zero Hedge

NYSE Announces Disaster-Recovery Test Due To Virus Fears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a somewhat shocking sounding move, given administration officials' ongoing effort to calm the public fears over the spread of Covid-19, The New York Stock Exchange has announced it will commence disaster-recovery testing in its Cermak Data Center on March 7 amid coronavirus concern, Fox Business reports in a tweet, citing the exchange.

During this test, NYSE will facilitate electronic Core Open and Closing Auctions as if the 11 Wall Stree...

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Cities With The Most 'New' And Tenured Homeowners

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Homeownership is a major investment. Not just financially, but when a person or family purchases a home, they’re investing years – if not decades – in that particular community. 55places wanted to find out which real estate markets are luring in new homebuyers, and which ones are dominated by owners that haven’t moved in decades. The study analyzed residency data in more than 300 US cities and revealed the top 10 cities with the most tenured homeowners – residents who’ve lived in and owned their home for more than 30 years – are sprinkled across ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Financial Crisis Deja Vu: Home Construction Index Double Top?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Most of us remember the 2007-2009 financial crisis because of the collapse in home prices and its effect on the economy.

One key sector that tipped off that crisis was the home builders.

The home builders are an integral piece to our economy and often signal “all clears” or “short-term warnings” to investors based on their economic health and how the index trades.

In today’s chart, we highlight the Dow Jones Home Construction Index. It has climbed all the way back to its pre-crisis highs… BUT it immediately reversed lower from there.

This raises concerns about a double top.

This pr...

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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Plunge Amid Coronavirus Fears

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. South Korea confirmed 256 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, while China reported an additional 327 new cases. Data on U.S. international trade in goods for January, wholesale inventories for January and consumer spending for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago PMI for February is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the University of Michigan's consumer sentime... more from Insider

Biotech & Health

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?


Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

Coronavirus seems to be on a collision course with the US economy and its 12-year bull market. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Michael Walden, North Carolina State University

Fears are growing that the new coronavirus will infect the U.S. economy.

A major U.S. stock market index posted its biggest two-day drop on record, erasing all the gains from the previous two months; ...

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The Technical Traders

SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 23, 2020, we ...

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Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  


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Chart School

Oil cycle leads the stock cycle

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Sure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.

There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it ...

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Members' Corner

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship


Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...

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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year


Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires


Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:


The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.