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Swing trading virtual portfolio – Week of June 29th, 2009

This post is for live trades and daily comments. 

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- Optrader


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  1.  Good morning, all! And let’s have a great week.


  2.  

    Apple, Palm’s silence isn’t golden, Barron’s reports
    Technology Trader columnist Eric Savitz pointed an accusatory finger at the disclosure practices of companies lately-- believing that the lack of disclosure violates securities laws and goodwill to investors, by not giving holders the information they require to make an informed decision on the stock’s proper valuation. First under Savitz’s gun was Apple’s (AAPL) board and CEO Steve Jobs, for hiding and not commenting on his illness and liver transplant. Also, under the gun was Palm (PALM) management, who Savitz feels is fairly irresponsible about its approach to disclosing information, or lack there of, about the early sales of the Pre device. Savitz says, this sort of thing would be bad e nough if Pre were just another product, but it isn’t. It is a bet-the-company initiative. Bottom-line: Savitz is hoping the boards at both Palm and Apple get a little religion on the subject of disclosure and corporate governance.


  3. GOOG – Sold 1/2.


  4.  sold INTC and 1/3 AAPL


  5. Hello, Morning all  !


  6.  For anyone interested in the article about verticals, I have not forgotten ;-) I am almost done. I am trying to reduce the size of it. 


  7. Op – I’d be happy to provide feedback on the draft of your article (mllange (at) gmail (dot) com)


  8.  /OS Sold last 1/3 CELG calls. It’s been a good run. Will reconsider if it breaks $48.


  9.  Thanks, mllange. I’ll send it to you when it has been reduced to a reasonable size.


  10. LVLT – Looks strong.


  11.  /OS sold 1/3 AAPL calls.


  12.  LVLT-Interesting chart indeed. Do you follow the fundamentals?


  13. Fianancials on LVLT shaky.  I bought some earlier today based on the item I posted last week.
     
    Google: AmTech discusses potential launch of Google Voice (405.68 ) : AmTech notes press sources are reporting that GOOG last month reserved 1 mln phone numbers with VoIP service provider LVLT


  14.  POT chart looking good


  15.  This golden cross on the ES has everyone in a tizzy 


  16.  So today nasdaq is weaker than the market. Rotation?


  17. Rotation? Manipulation? Whats the diff…

    End of quarter rebalancing perphaps.


  18. eng, do you like mos as well? seems like earlier stage than pot, but if you get in pot do you get bg puts as a hedge >


  19. LAMR – looks like it could be interesting as it starts turning up.


  20.  MON is still in bear trend.  I would short MON and buy POT if I were to make another AG trade.  AGU chart is turning bullish but still in this flag.  If it breaks 42 will have to cover, If we stay up here, may break through today


  21.  LAMR-A close above the 200MA would be interesting, indeed.


  22. some color on LVLT …. As a company, it is worthless.  Many hedge funds use LVLT stock as a hedge on other telecom/internet infrastructure holdings.  For example, they may be long company "X", and short LVLT as a hedge.  Or vice versa.
     
    AMZN; been a great swing trading stock today.  For me; short upper 83′s-84; cover lower.


  23. Verticals question:
     
    I bought a BIDU 280/290 July Call Vert and a CME 310/320 July Call Vert, both for $4 the day they both went down 20 bucks. So, max profit for both is 6. Expiration is 3 weeks away and they are both sitting exactly at the top of the spreads. Should I be doing something here, like rolling to take money off the table or just wait to expiry?


  24. eng for mon puts does it make sense to you if you use 77.21 as poistion sizing and stop?and 90 for pot  for stop?
    thanks


  25.  maybe 78 on mon.  Are you in AGU?


  26.  newparadigmz, it depends on your view on the stocks. If you are still strongly bullish on them you should roll to higher strikes. If you want to take some money off the table because you are still bullish but don’t want to keep a full position, you don’t need to roll. There is still a lot of premium in the short calls. Just sell 1/3 or 1/2 of the vertical.


  27. English – are you still short any WFC?


  28.  SPX-There is some strong resistance around 729/730.


  29.  No, not short WFC.  Covered that and sold GS long as well


  30. thanks=)


  31.  Not much to do here, very low volume day.


  32.  bought back 1/3 V.  See if it stays over the 5MA i guess


  33.  This could be the high volume day of the week too


  34. LVLT stronger. 


  35.  MOS is flying.


  36.  Is everyone already on vacation? This is really a slow day so far.


  37. Opt – MOS and POT are showing similar patterns.  Would you consider either for entry at EOD, and if so – which ?  Or would you wait until the 5MA definitely turns upward ? (currently flatish)


  38.  Yah, most folks have left for vacation.


  39. Opt – market is waiting for new earnings season i think


  40.  Partha, I am not looking into AGs for longs. Just for fundamental reasons for now.


  41.  KSS weak today


  42.  With this drop in IV, might be a good time to buy some strangles/straddles.


  43.  They need more money to buy more shares from Eddie?

    June 29 (Bloomberg) -- AutoZone Inc., an auto-parts retailer, plans to sell $500 million of 5.5-year notes as soon as today, according to a person familiar with the offering.


  44. wow.. if mkt keeps this flat and boring , I better take a nap. Sadly im not taking it just to see it mkt moves. :-)


  45.  This must have been the most boring day so far this year.


  46.  opt, what do you think of the AGU chart?


  47.  AGU-I don’t think much more than what you posted earlier. Still in that flag/triangle. Let’s see the close.


  48.  Well, that was fun. I hope everyone comes back tomorrow, for another very exciting day!


  49.  Brutal


  50. LOL, yes another one :)
    No volume, no volatility, no news, no nothing! Just madoff thing.
    I will read the article comparing USA 2009 Vs Argentina 2001. Seems very intresting and as i live in Argentina, and im withness of hyperinflations, deflation, recesions, stanglation, will see how well the escence is captured in that article.
     
    See ya!


  51. Hi, Optrader,
    I am quite new in option trade.  I have read all  eight lessons in the posted "The full option trade  strategy".  I would like to know how the sell target is set and how the stop is selected.  I noticed that you sold 1/3 AAPL today. Can you please share with me what selling rule are you following ? or not hard rule at all ?  I also notice many cases, the underline stock price has fallen below 5MA, which is supposed to be the stop according to the lesson 5 in the Full strategy, but the postion was not closed.  Can you please share the rule of setting the stop ? 
    Will appreciate your help.
    Regards!


  52.  Hi cchen-xh,

    About the stops, I answered your question this weekend for AGU, it is pretty much the same for all. Does it make sense or do you have more questions?

    For targets, we don’t have any profit targets. We just take what the market gives us. When we sell the first 2 1/3′s it is usually at points of resistance, on the daily or intraday chart. Those don’t matter too much.

    For the last 1/3, we just wait to be stopped-out as our stop is trailing

    Does it help?


  53.  

    Lampert, ESL file to sell shares of AutoZone
    ESL Partners LP registered to sell 125,503 shares, ESL Institutional Partners registered 664 shares, ESL Investors registered 27,800 shares, Edward Lampert registered 205 shares, and Edward Lampert & Kindga Foundation registered 203 shares in Autozone. All approximate dates of sale were June 22, 2009


  54.  Apollo Group board increases share repurchaes by $500M :t


  55.  

    Amazon.com upgraded at Cowen
    As mentioned earlier, Cowen upgraded Amazon.com to Outperform from Neutral. The firm expects Amazon to gain more of the consumer wallet as it focuses on lower prices and a superior shopping experience vs. online and offline competitors. 


  56.  

    Freeport McMoRan upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy at Canaccord
    Canaccord upgraded Freeport based on asset and management quality, size and liquidity, and vies as a potential hedge against inflation and U.S. dollar weakness. Target to $61


  57.  

    Dendreon initiated with a Hold at Morgan Joseph
    Morgan Joseph views Dendreon as a potential leader in therapeutic vaccines but would wait for a better entry point. 


  58.  

    Research in Motion coverage transferred with an Outperform at BMO Capital
    Target $100


  59. Amazon.com cuts marketing affiliates due to state sales tax, WSJ reports
    Amazon.com (AMZN) does not want to charge state sales taxes, and to avoid doing so, it is ending relationships with thousands of marketing affiliates who link to Amazon products on their sites in exchange for a cut of sales, the Wall Street Journal reports. The company said Monday that it had terminated its affiliate program in Rhode Island, because a new law there would require companies to collect sales taxes if they have marketing affiliates based in the state

     


  60.  

    Facebook hires new CFO sparking IPO rumors, MercuryNews reports
    The appointment of David Ebersman as the new CFO at Facebook, has sparked rumors of a possible IPO of the company, reports MercuryNews. This stems from commentary back in March from Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, where he told employees in an internal memo that he was seeking a CFO with "public company experience". This was widely interpreted by many to mean an IPO of Facebook. Ebersman, who joins the company from Genentech (DNA) should not be interpreted as a signal that Facebook is gearing up for an initial public offering of stock, said Facebook spokesman Larry Yu. "We’re focused on building a company for the long term," Yu said.


  61.  

    Apple sees repeat of last year’s iPhone sellout, Apple Insider reports
    Apple (AAPL) nearly saw a repeat of last year’s sellouts on the weekend with widespread, but brief, iPhone 3GS shortages at many of its US retail stores, Apple Insider reports. The weekend began with few shortages but by Sunday evening, very few stores had any stock of the white iPhone 3Gs model and limited availability of the black version. 


  62. opt my orginal delta of my mon put is -333, and I bought my put at 75.64 , today the stock open lower do I sell some to keep my delta to -333?


  63.  Looks like another barn burner here


  64.  Bees- you certainly can.  I do this often, especially in this choppy trendless market.  


  65. okay eng, now my delta is -363
    I have 80/70 put , how would you do it ?


  66.  probably just sell 1 of the 80/70 verticals.  Can you take some profit without being eaten up in the spread? 


  67.  AMZN trying to give us that 86 we called out the other day.  


  68. thanks, english, but let me ask you this, but I do have pot call from yesterday as an hedge, and now it is losing money, if I sell 1 pair of 1/3 mon here do I need to manage my pot poistion here? but I still do believe pot will hold and move higher, the reason I consider selling some mon here is because I thought they both move together, so I should slowly move out mon and find another put for an hedge, opt and english would you two give me your thoughts ? thanks


  69.  Bees, I already answered the questions via email.


  70.  You are correct and I thought you probably had that POT on.  I had the WFC GS pair on and took profits on the WFC on the down days and then rode the GS back up.  I would do the same in MON POT.  You can take a little MON off here and keep you POT.  Do you have other puts?  We are a bit short so if you are the same you should be fine with 1/3 more POT long.  It has dropped a lot and could snap back.  Just be patient with the rest of your MON short.  Try to stay in it until the chart turns and you hits your stop.  Consider your overall balance


  71.  NVDA puts hitting on rumors apple is switching away from NVDA and into AMD chip sets


  72. english , I don;t have other puts thats the only position i have mon put and pot call. still trying to learn how to manage the portfolio.


  73.  1) As explained before, POT and MON are too correlated. At this point this is not "balancing" anymore. They move pretty much the same, so any profit that you would make on one will be negated by the loss in the other one. The only one getting rich here is your broker. Pick something in related industries if you want balance, but not that close. Generally we are even just fine with having one call in something and one put in something else, even if they are not in the same industry.

    We are still playing directional bets, and following trends.

    2) If you start playing with your deltas etc. you are going to make your broker even richer. You will lose money on commissions, and in the spread. 

    3) If you sell the MON puts and keep the full position in POT, you will do exactly the opposite of what we are usually doing, which is to keep your winners and sell your losers. 

    That’s fine if you think that this is a range-bound market, and that POT will bounce. But be aware of it, as if the Ags keep dropping you will lose more.

    This is why I recommended yesterday when you emailed me your trades, that you just stick with your strategy and wait until one of them gets stopped-out.


  74. LVLT – Sold 1/3.


  75.  Remember, your goal here is to puke MON at 96.50 and sell POT at 101-110. Or puke POT at 92.50 and cover MON between 70-65.  That is your goal, whether or not that occurs is up to the market gods.  But don’t try to overtrade it, you just want to try to cut one and let one run if a strong trend develops.  Give it some room and just stick to your stops, all you want to do.


  76. opt , in my case I didn’t adjust any of my poistion yet, but what will be the best put the suit me out there ? I am not trying to switch or anything I just want to know.


  77.  AGU testing 200MA again


  78.  Oh, and most important, listen to Opt.  He has a better track record than me. I agree that they are too tightly correlated 


  79. ARNA -Showing some strength.


  80.  Bees, you mean the best put or the best call? They are both going down. If there was something I would replace it is the call. Again, I always sell the losers and keep the winners.

    Well, we don’t have that many calls, but I am still fine with INTC and V.


  81. opt, so what I suppose to do now is wait for one of them to get stop out and keep the winner and move on am I getting you right here?


  82.  OK, sold the last of my CELG


  83.  And again, they are pumping AAPL, AMZN, RIMM etc. to not let this market drop.


  84.  Yes, Bees.


  85. opt thanks got it now, so that’s why this pair is not going to make any money


  86.  It’s like playing hot potato with a hand grenade.  God forbid some fund does not need to sell anything of any size one day, there won’t be any bids below in individual stocks.  Artificial stock pumping usually does not end well.  just wish i knew the motives behind the buy programs 


  87. anyone follow RAX?…


  88.  English, well, today the motive will be to "paint" the quarter. But what about tomorow? And who let goes first?


  89. I talked yesterday about that line at 930. That’s exactly where we hit resistance this morning. And this makes this chart bearish for now, especially if we drop below 5MA, and then 50MA and 200MA.

     


  90.  ES-Bounced on S1.


  91. Lesson learned – should have sold 1/3 Rimm yesterday :-)


  92. Thank you, Optrade, for the explanation about the target and stop. 
     You mentioned that you explained the Stop of AGU last weekend.  Somehow, I missed that and can not find it anymore.  I am wondering if you could please resend.  The question was that AGU price moved above 5MA , but the put postion was not stoped out.  I would like to know how the stop was set in the AGU case.   I am very curious.
    Thank you for the help !


  93. Well I am back today.  Looks like yesterday was a real snoozer


  94.  cchen, here is what I posted last weekend:

     cchen, that’s a very good question. In the strategy, a little bit further down you will read:

     

    "2) The market has to break and close decisively above/below the 5-day moving average in order to validate your stop. A slight break above/below the 5-day moving average should also be disregarded. Therefore, please do not automate your stops, and please wait till the very last second of the session before validating your stop. As for the penetration level, please judge that with your eyes and don’t base it on any percentages. Always use 3-month charts, you can use shorter periods, but no longer than 3 month charts in order to clearly view any cross-overs and degree of penetration."

    So on the 24, it was obviously still very close tp the 5MA. On the 25, it was a little bit further, and this is why we reduced the position. We did not close it completely, because we wanted to still have some puts in the portfolio, and it was up that day because the market had a huge day.

    Hope this helps.

     


  95. SCHN – Getting crushed.


  96.  buying in some of the RIMM 70 puts here to get my deltas back up near 2/3.  Will kick them back out later if we stay up here.  Would like to sell off and move them back to the 65′s but the 70′s have been nice.


  97.  Buying back 1/3 INTC.  Put me at 1/3 total


  98.  By the way, I will be leaving for vacation to France from July 4th until July 23rd. Of course, I will still be trading and managing the blog here, it will just be different hours for me.

    In fact, maybe it will be a good time to focus on strategies that require less watching. I know that a lot of you here do not watch the market all day long, so it might a good time to focus on positions that only require adjustments once or twice a day.

    Maybe, as we discussed before, we can experiment wiht getting rid of the legging-out (1/3′s) and just enter positions that we either let go completely or close completely. Van Tharp thinks that legging-out is an inferior strategy anyway, so maybe we can try and see the results.

    If any of you have other suggestions on some strategies that you would like to work on (like flys, condors, etc.), that recquire less "managing", let me know and we can do this during that time


  99.  Now that we broke S1 I don’t see much support.


  100. I would suggest legging out in two stages.rather than three…. for simplicity’s sake and to let winners run just the same….


  101.  I still like MSFT a lot. They have a lot going on right now. No point in jumping in at this point on the chart, though. WOuld have to wait for either a pullback or a breakout.


  102.  Magret, that’s a good idea. In fact I suggested this for people who have small accounts: just ignore the second 1/3, and do 1/2′s. For big accounts though, when you have 100′s of contracts, 1/3 can make a difference. 

    It’s something we need to look into.


  103. opt, can we get a HOD run?
     
    thanks


  104.  ~HOD6


  105. EDU HOD = 67.22…Last = 67.04
    HUM HOD = 31.855…Last = 31.7
    KIM HOD = 10.06…Last = 10.01
    QID HOD = 32.34…Last = 32.24
    RE HOD = 71.42…Last = 71.01
    RIMM HOD = 71.75…Last = 71.38


  106. why am I not surprised to see RIMM in that group?


  107.  RIMM-Coming out with a $100 price target on the last day of the quarter. Hum…


  108.  Rolled my AMZN 85-80 into the 90-80


  109. Opt – regarding strategies that require less watching: that would be appreciated by me.  I’m back at work now, and can only check the board during lunch, although I hope to check back in around 3:45 or so each day so I can see what you are recommending.  Also, because of the time contraint I’m under, I very much appreciate the "/OB" and "/OS" flags for each change you make, as I can do a ‘find’ on those and quickly jump to them.
     
    Hope you have a great time in France!


  110.  OK, I found a way to refresh the page automatically in Safari :-)

    Just open the page in a tab, and then copy the following where the url is:

    javascript:
    timeout=prompt("Set timeout [s]");
    current=location.href;
    if(timeout>0)
      setTimeout(‘reload()’,1000*timeout);
    else
      location.replace(current);
    function reload(){
      setTimeout(‘reload()’,1000*timeout);
      fr4me=’<frameset cols=\’*\’>\n<frame src=\”+current+’\'/>’;
      fr4me+=’</frameset>’;
      with(document){write(fr4me);void(close())};
    }


  111. In Firefox you can do it with the TabMixPlus add-on.  I have this page and Phils daily pages set to 90 second refreshes.


  112. opt now my poistion sort of more make sense now?
    mon is dropping faster than pot now, is like the two poistion is finally making money, do I just keep them like that or ?


  113. re page refreshes – you can also have the same affect by clicking on the "rss 2.0" link just below the portfolio at the top of each weeks start page.  This is a lot lower bandwidth solution, as you aren’t transfering the whole page (by Friday, that’s pretty big); instead, you are just getting the changes since the last update on your rss feed.  You can specify the time to update, such as each 1 minute. 


  114. opt for mon there is a support on 15min chart near 74


  115. Bees, stick to your plan. You need to force yourself to stop trading so much. Just make a decision and stick to it.  


  116.  Bees-I was afraid you were going to breakout that 15 min. chart :)


  117. Smasher – Where can I set the refresh in TabMixplus add-on.  Thx.


  118. english LOL!


  119. partha – Go to Tools -> Tab Mix Plus Options and you’ll get a pop up of all the options.  Select the Menu section, then select the Main Context Menu tab under this.  These are all the options you get if you right click on a page.  From here make sure Reload Every is selected.  After you’ve done this, you should be able to right click and you’ll have a Reload Every option available.
     
    But, like javaben said, the RSS feed if you use them would be much less of a resource hit for Phil.  I’ve tried to add it to google read just now and I get an Oops…an error occurred. Please try again in a few seconds. when trying to do it.  I’ll keep trying again and if it doesn’t work maybe Optrade can contact Phil/Matt and get them to look in to it.


  120. Any idea how to refresh Safari on the iphone…


  121. Opt    
    I need to renew my annual membership. Can you send me the code or details for that. ( non-PSW , OPT membership only)
    thx    
    yadnum@sbcglobal.net


  122.  Safari refresh on the Iphone. Now that would be cool. What you can do though on the Iphone, is use one of those RSS readers.


  123.  And of course, PALM has such a great valuation that it is up 3% today..


  124. Smasher – Thanks.  RSS doesnt work for me on Opts weekly page – keep getting an error.


  125.  As boring as yesterday so far. Should have left for vacation a week earlier.


  126.  Well, looks like a day with no trades at all. Let’s see what happens tomorrow, as those charts are turning bearish here.


  127.  brutal


  128. ufff, again boringggggg .. we will miss big time those  vix > 30 days


  129.  picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue


  130.  hahaha…


  131. Thank you, Optrade,  for the explnation.
    Have a wonderful time in France.


  132. Good Morning Opt, If you are looking for a low volatility call while you are in St T, look at STX. Have a great time, Jamie


  133.  

    Palm initiated with a Hold at Kaufman Bros.

    Kaufman Bros. finds Palm’s valuation expensive at current levels and is concerned about the continued operating losses. Target $16.


  134.  STX-Jamie, do you still like them after such a run?


  135. SEPR looks interesting.


  136.  /OS sold last V calls


  137. opt feels good of following rules holding on mon and pot


  138.  SEPR-That’s an interesting breakout indeed.


  139. opt , I believe oil is going to be go higher, and I want to build up some long term position on it , what is the best way to do it ? usl ? uso leap?


  140.  INTC breaking up


  141.  Oil-USO is my favorite one in terms of liquidity.


  142. Bees – You might also look at UNG, a natural gas ETF.  Chart still falling, but I’m looking to
    start a position in it once it bottoms.


  143. opt , then how would you suggest me to build up a long term position on it ?
    do I scale in bit by bit ? buying leaps?


  144.  /OS sold last 1/3 INTC calls. That’s a big move. Will reconsider


  145. albo what is your reason behind the gas trade? because demand kicks in winter time?


  146.  Bees, what do you mean by "long term" position? How long do you want to hold it?


  147. opt, thinking of holding it as investment, looking at holding more than a year, of cause it must be going to my way not dropping


  148. Bees – Natural gas is selling considerably below where it has historically sold in relation
    to crude oil.  In my opinion, it should adjust upward.  Not intended to be a short term trade.


  149.  Then I would buy some 2011 Leaps, and maybe sell 1/2 of front month calls against it.


  150. for position sizing what number are you using for these kind of long term trade?


  151. albo when are you getting into the trade, like 5ma showing a uptrend? and if you are entering the trade what price are you using for poisition sizing ? where will you put your stop>


  152.  ES testing R1


  153.  English, a friend of mine was telling me about it yesterday evening. Unreal.


  154. Bees – I will wait til it crosses the 50MA.  Will set stop once I get in the position.  Again,
    this is not a trade.  Looking to keep longer term.    


  155.  Bees, it depends on where your stop is. Same strategy.


  156. albo thanks got it
    opt alright. but do you find some other thing in the same sector to hedge it ? maybe use one of the ags?


  157. Opt. I have some NVDA calls, but looking at the candles I think a reversal is forming here. Think I should get out although the 5 ma is still up. Appreciating your meaning.


  158.  NVDA-Yes, I would get out here. It is red on +130 day, and I don’t like the talks about AAPL dropping them for AMD. You can always re-enter later.


  159.  Bees, you already some Ags, maybe if you really want to be hedged, sell some of your pot calls. I am not that concerned about being hedged with long-term plays, though.


  160. Thanks much Opt.


  161. Opt – I never see anything in the ‘portfolio’ window where the R profit/loss is updated for a trade.  Am I missing something?


  162.  Market keeps going up, but I don’t really see a sector that looks attractive here. Even tech looks tired. So will just sit on my hands for now.


  163.  Javaben, usually I do it when I make a recap every month. But I have some time this morning, so will update right now ;-)


  164.  Ok, updated the P/L. Nothing very significant. A sign of what happened in the choppy market the last couple of weeks. No big losses but no big wins. 


  165.  Opt.  You based your INTC position sizing on a .20c stop?  Your delta must have been huge to get a 2.19R profit out of that sucker, nice one.


  166.  Your CELG R’s are off.


  167.  English, I have $15.50 as a stop on INTC. What did you have? That does not seem like a tight stop at all looking at the chart right now. That was very far from 5MA and below support at $15.60. Did you have even wider than this?


  168.  CELG-Thank you, you are right, I have "0" as stop in there. I knew we had a big winner somewhere ;-)


  169.  INTC-That could have been even bigger :-(


  170.  INTC-Do we agree, English? It’s important stuff here. I agree that $0.30 is probably very tight, in terms of %. That being said, when you look at the chart, INTC does not move much, and a move to $15.50 was definetely taking it out of the band.

    Usually what I do, as I do it fast, is that I look at the chart, then I click on it where I think it is wide enough and would represent a break, and then just input that number in the spreadsheet. In that case I had $15.60 for stop, that’s what I put in the P/L, and used $15.50 in my spreadsheet for position sizing.


  171. opt – re portfolio Rs – wow!  Great job!


  172.  And I just let almost 1R go by closing too early.


  173.  Great job in doing them so fast? I already have the formulas in, I just don’t copy them until positions are closed, or I get some weird numbers (because of dividing by zero). So it’s pretty easy at this point, I just have to copy numbers from my personal position sizing spreadsheet.


  174.  Should have jumped on those STP calls the other day…


  175.  INTC was trading 15.90 and I used 15.  If I had used 15.60, .30c stop against other positions i would have ended up with like 40,000 deltas.  Great if it works but a gap down would have been a massive loser on 400 contracts at 1.46 a piece and not in line with the other positions as far as size.  I would have to either tighten all my stops to get deltas in line or risk having one big bet


  176. Hello, Morning All,
    Do you guys have an option play to hedge against a US$ fall?
    Im trying to find some hedge at low cost, just in case. I was looking into the UDN Dic calls. But maybe you have some better ideas. (I do not trade FX).
    TY


  177.  You should not worry about the number of contracts. Look at the chart, don’t you agree that $15 would be a huge move based on this chart, and disproportionate? Look at how far $15 was from the 5MA at the time we entered the trade? Then, you need a move to $17 only to get 1R?

    40,000 deltas does not mean anything. That’s the equivalent of 4,000 deltas on AAPL. Don’t forget this is a $15 stock, and a $1 is a BIG deal for it. 

    When was the last time INTC gapped $1? The biggest gap in ALL of last year, which was crazy volatile, was around $0.30, which was my stop. Other than that, the big gaps were around $0.15.

    I know a lot of people do this with low-priced stocks with options. They don’t trust the numbers and always buy positions that are too small.


  178.  Spider, a good one is oil. oil usually goes the opposite of the dollar.


  179.  I agree.  I had the same stop when looking at the chart but could not bite on the position.  I will bite next time and live or die by the sword.  I did the 15-17 vertical and ended up with a .66R profit.  Could have used that 40k kicker


  180. AAPL trying hard to break 145


  181. Optrader: I know the commodity move, but that do not hedge you in case of stangflation. If i get it right, current commodity trend (with low real demand) is fueled, at least in part, for hedging against dollar.
     
    If world demand and economy do not recover soon we probably be in a oversupply situation leading into a inventory driven recession, in middle of a credit driven recession. In such extreme situation one can think that the inverse correlation US$ / oil maybe does not  work.
     
     Hellicoper Ben and his QE  is killing me. I’m totally clue less. (And because that, I think that Ben maybe was right).


  182. Opt – when you have a vertical like RIMM and it is moving sideways as we near expiration what are you looking for and when do you make adjustments?  I have the 75/65 vertical in RIMM with a 1/1 ratio and with verticals in this situation I always get confused on what to do.  I dont see any reason to close it unless it breaks up out of this range but I feel like I dont have alot of time in July either.


  183. I rolled into the 80 70 vertical in rimm to get + theta. I have a ratio and the 70′s still have $2. When gs is done propping this market up we can roll it back down. No premium in the 80′s really either.


  184.  RIMM-I would not touch it yet. You still have time, and the fact that it is a vertical protects you anyway.


  185.  Spider, you are right. But in that case, what else do you buy for cover? That’s the thing with forex, you don’t get that many opportunities for balance. Why don’t you just go naked and use your stop as protection? The good thing about forex is that you don;t get any gaps, so your risk is totally defined.


  186. opt do you still suggest me to keep mon and pot without adjusting anything?


  187.  Opt, the 80-70 vertical in RIMM is paying off nicely from just yesterday even though the stock is only down 30 cents.   the 70 puts are down .15c and the 80 puts are up .25c.  the 75-65 has not budged much


  188.  A lot of call buying going on in AKAM


  189.  bearish candle forming in Amascam


  190.  Bees, if you buy some oil, I would sell some POT. Anyway, you are probably going to be stopped-out on it pretty soon.


  191. Opt, do you have any calls that you recommend? I have TXN on the call side and CME & AGU on the put side? Wondering whether to get into AMZN puts but that would unbalance my positions and I’ve been whacked in the past when that happens.


  192.  Arindamc, I still like INTC and MSFT. Looks like some good balance for AMZN. I also like STP for your AGU.


  193.  RIMM-Agreed, 80/70 is better right now, but I don’t like to roll up and down too much. Hopefully the stock drops more and then the 75/65 will start paying nicely. 


  194.  Well the roll is one I am trying to master.  Right now I am just watching my Gamma Theta battle with my tinfoil hat on.


  195.  I feel like being short more AZO.  You can’t use the charts though, more of a Jedi mind feel as to when Eddie eats lunch so that you get a window for the sellers.  I am looking for something to go long.  INTC breaking up was surprising to me as it is not as easily manipulated as the usual suspects.  


  196. opt you said you like stp, then do you like them over uso?    


  197.  AZO-I hear you. My strategy with this one is just to wait. I am playng with it, so theta and IV work my way. And just waiting for the drop…


  198.  How are you structured in AZO right now.  I have the 155-45, but I don’t like the – theta


  199. english how are u playing azo?


  200.  160-150 would give me + theta at 4 to 1 over my neg. gamma


  201. Opt/English – I am out of AZO right now and keep missing opportunities to re-enter.  Would you start to scale in to a position now?


  202.  Blackhawks sign Hossa to a 12 year deal.  Still time for all of you to move to Chitown for next years blackhawks season.


  203. AZO – agree.  I wonder if Mr. Eddie used his AZO position to collateralize another deal and he gets hit with some penalties or other provisions if the position deterioriates below the equivalent of about $147-148.  Its been pretty strong support a couple times since March.    I’ll bet its cheaper for him to buy the stock and drive it back up than it is to pay the penalties. If that’s the case, breaking through that 147-148 range could create a huge slide if he needs the cash from his position to manage the penalties.  All guesswork but plausable.  I know we’re supposed to be working with the 5ma strategy but AZO and logic don’t seem to go together these days.


  204.  Stop- I did. I was out and switched to SHLD, which was real nice.  Out of SHLD and into AZO when it was 149, so yes you can definitely scale in.  Just make sure you are not too aggressive and structure it so you get theta and IV working for you while you wait.  That is what we are doing.  That is what we are discussing now, or i am asking rather.


  205.  Bees, yes, I probably would like those better than USO, especially on a pullback. Just be careful as it is very volatile, like all solars.


  206.  AZO-I have the 160/150 and 145. I play a lot with it though.


  207.  AGU testing the 200, again.


  208. Opt, I loved the chart and noticed that the CEO bought 1,000,000 shares recently. When I looked at it it was just above 5ma


  209. Sorry, STX


  210.  ICE looks like a good short


  211.  Keyser, I agree 100%. If it drops, it would be disaster, a house of cards. This is why they are doing everything they can to keep it up.


  212.  Got a little ego heavy waiting for that 86 in AMZN, should have realized 85 was enough to kick out the final 1/3. I am happy though to see it weak, so I won’t complain Opt  ;)


  213.  80.87 support, 50MA on AMZN


  214.  Yes, no complaining about AMZN today…


  215.  And I agree, lots of support around $81.


  216. Opt – are you looking at any new swing trades going into the close?


  217.  Plan is to buy back 1/3 of INTC calls before close and start a position in STP calls, probably the 16/19 vertical.


  218.  Opt,  I have been patiently waiting for new entries.  Your thoughts on the STP & INTC calls for initial positions???


  219.  STP. are you thinking 1/2 position 17.50 stop


  220.  sgrundahl, what do you mean by "my thoughts"? Yes, I like them, but this is because we have a mostly bearish portfolio. You need some puts if you get those.

    I like AMZN to balance INTC and AGU to balance STP.


  221. INTC – Jul ATM ?


  222.  STP-1/2 position 17.15 stop.


  223.  INTC-Yes, that’s fine. 


  224.  Well, this turned-out to be a very good day after all. 


  225.  ANF managed to close unchanged after being up 4%. The volatility on this one…


  226.  Opt, that is understood and noted.  Can you possibly suggest entry suggestions for AMZN puts / INTC calls / AGU puts / STP calls including suggested stops.  I am new to options and would like to enter positions that I can follow along in the beginning until I get the feel for the trades.  If you have any alternate or other suggested trades that you would suggest for a new portfolio, that would be MUCH appreciated.  


  227.  What do you mean by "entry suggestions"? I like them at the price where they are right now. With ATM options. Does it make sense? Stops should be a little bit above/below 5MA.


  228.  STP makes me nervous.  Why does this one trade so differently than the other solar names.  STP appears to have a terrible balance sheet and high PE compared to the others.  Was everyone chasing the upgrade today?


  229. strike prices for the & stops for the the individual verticals.  Sorry for all the questions.  


  230.  sgrundahl.  Strike prices will be ITM or ATM from the current price.  Stops for the verticals will be above or below the 5MA significantly.  Remember, that we trade these things just like we were trading outright stock, that is what we watch for stops, the stock price.  You don’t place stops on the individual verticals, just place a stop on the stock price and get out of the vertical if that price is violated on the close of the day.  make sense?


  231.  STP-I like the chart, and the fundies. If it breaks down, we will just get-out. I feel that we have a good hedge with AGU as well.


  232.  English.  thanks for the explanation.  I understand that the stop is based on stock price and not on individual verticals.  However, I am not sure how to set chart to identify 5MA correctly.  
    Still trying to wrap my mind around how to select specific strikes for the verticals.   Let’s use AMZN puts / INTC calls & AGU puts / STP calls as an example.  


  233. Hello Optrader,
    Glad to be back and anxious to start trading again.
    Is there an Excel Template for download to help track our personal Swing Portfolio trades?
    I used to program in Excel, but it’s easier to start with an established template.
    Thanks,  Richard


  234. UNG not a good long term hold IMO.  Too much degradation … the ETF gets killed by costs of rolling forward its futures contracts every month.  
    As a trading vehicle; ok.
     
    As a long term hold, I don’t recommend.


  235.  sgrundahl, did your read the strategy about 5MA, etc. as well as the example for position sizing? For verticals, we always pick a long strike that is either slightly ITM or ATM and a short strike that is OTM. English likes to go a little bit more ITM for the long strike, as there is less premium. It’s a personal choice.

    Then, for AMZN for example price is $81.60, 5MA is at $82.87, and if you were to start a new position today you would pick something around $84 for position sizing, to give you enough room.


  236.  Richard, glad to have you back ;-) What kind of spreadsheet are you looking for? Something like what’s at the top of the comments, or something for position sizing?


  237. Good morning all.
    Optrader – Both types of spreadsheet templates would be helpful.  The "comments portfolio" table is easier to make, but the position sizing one would include some formulas for "R" and such.
    Thanks


  238.  Well, for the portfolio the table is above. Let me know if there is something you don’t understand about it. For position sizing, I have an example here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AtIeGXuwQ0KOcGxEVHZVc2Q0d2U1Qm5jVF96YnNVYkE&hl=en


  239.  

    Sepracor downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
    Deutsche Bank downgraded Sepracor after the company’s depression drug missed its primary efficacy endpoint. The firm lowered its target on shares to $16 from $25.


  240.  

    Cisco initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank
    Deutsche Bank expects Cisco to maintain its market share in core product areas and for customer upgrades to accelerate growth. The firm finds shares attractively valued and set a $26 price target on the stock. :t


  241.  

    Palm checks indicate Pre now in stock, says JP Morgan
    JP Morgan’s channel checks indicate supply and demand for the Pre phone has balanced out at Sprint (S) and Best Buy (BBY) stores. The firm believes Palm is on target to ship 270K Pre units, since launch, into the channel by end of this week. Shares remain Neutral rated. 


  242.  Another crook joins the fun:

    Another retailer divests marketing affiliates due to protest taxes, WSJ reports
    Overstock.com (OSTK) informed its marketing affiliates in four states, California, Hawaii, North Carolina and Rhode Island, that it is ending its business with them to avoid collecting sales tax, the Wall Street Journal reports. Earlier this week, Amazon.com (AMZN) made a similar announcement regarding the state of Rhode Island affiliates. Lawmakers in the states have passed or are preparing to pass legislation that would require companies to collect sales tax if they have marketing affiliates in the state. "It’s painful to have to terminate these relationships with affiliates, simply because they live in states where counterproductive (and likely unconstitutional) laws are being passed," Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne said.


  243. WOW !
     SEPR -15.6% (determined that SEP-225289 did not meet the primary efficacy endpoint; the positive control in the study did achieve separation from placebo that was statistically significant on the primary endpoint),
    I was so close to buying calls yesterday.  The chart looked great.
    This shows why it’s dangerous to trade in the biotechs.  Things
    have a way of showing up and biting you !


  244.  

    Notebook demand expected to slow in Q3, DigiTimes reports
    According to industry sources, notebook demand is expected to slow significantly in Q3. The expected slowdown is reportedly due to consumers waiting for Intel’s (INTC) Calpella platform, which will be launched in September, and Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows 7, which will be launched in October. Demand for notebooks is expected to take off after November.


  245. Morning all.
     
    Oil Down, SOLARS probably get killed today.


  246.  SEPR-I was looking at it. It’s crazy. Always be careful with biotechs. Small positions, it’s gambling.


  247. Anybody – Does the market observe the 4 of July on Friday or Monday?


  248.  friday


  249.  SPX right on the 50MA


  250.  Verizon Wireless Offers a Host of BlackBerry Smartphone Choices 07/02 09:34 AM


  251. opt good morning, mon turns out to be a winner, and I sold pot and bought stp yesterday, for mon I do believe it will go near 70, do you suggest any rolling or I just hold on to it


  252.  No rolling.


  253.  /OS sold last 1/3 AAPL calls


  254.  Valuation? No, really?

    Amazon.com initiated with a Neutral at Broadpoint AmTech

    Broadpoint cites valuation, macro concerns, and a near-term lack of visibility for its Neutral rating on Amazon. The firm set an $87 target on the stock. :theflyonthewall.com


  255.  Amazon.com: Bearish flag, bearish cup and handle in progress

    On the 5-minute chart, 5-day basis, there is a small bearish flag in progress that has downside potential to the $78.50 area. On the daily chart, there is a bearish cup and handle in progress that has a first downside objective to the $76 area. :theflyonthewall.com

  256.  ANF below 200MA now


  257.   Potash producers higher following report of price increase

    Bloomberg reported this morning that OAO Uralkali, Russia’s second-largest potash producer, said it raised prices for domestic chemical producers OAO EuroChem and PhosAgro by 20% as demand for complex fertilizers improves. The news has potash producers moving higher this morning in a down market. Mosaic (MOS) is up nearly 2% in early morning trading, while Potash (POT) is rallying around 3% and Intrepid Potash (IPI) over 2%. Agrium (AGU) is bucking the trend, ticking down over half to percent to $39.15.

  258.  ENER moving nicely


  259.  Some AGU support near


  260.  Bees- you are sitting nice


  261.  I have been adding some ANF puts this morning. Not 2/3 yet.


  262. english, I should have just sell abit pot yesterday, but instead I sold everything and get in stp. what is your thoughts for mon ?


  263. opt thannks, by following what you suggest hold on tight on everything and follow simple rules , I am doing quite well this week..


  264. Jun 26  The biggest news in ag stocks this week came again in the fertilizer industry as Potash (POT), after the close yesterday, significantly lowered its second quarter earnings guidance on substantially lower than expected potash sales volumes due to deferral of purchases by customers globally as well as lower realized phosphate prices
     
    Today      -Potash producers higher following report of price increase.
     
    Go figure!
     
    Today -


  265.  Bees, you did fine selling your POT yesterday. You followed the rules and were disciplined. There was no way anyone could guess that Russians were going to increase their prices. Just not very good luck, it happens.

    But trust me, if you keep trading like this, you will make money in the long run. 

    After a trade is made, there is no point in thinking "I should have", or "what if". You can review your trade, see if you did something wrong, or if you followed your rules. If you did not follow your rules, see if there is something to learn from it. If you followed your rules, then feel good about your trading and move to the next trade. 

    After something moves in one direction, it is too easy to say "I should not have sold". No one can predict the market, we can only follow some rules that have been proven to be successful.


  266. Good morning,
    Thanks Opt,  I did read the 5MA strategy and position sizing.  Everything is still a bit new, but I am learning every day.  For AMZN, would you got 80/70 or 80/75??


  267. opt thanks for pointing out what did I did wrong. looking at mon my target price would be $70 if you were me will you do something to protect your profit? or it will be just fine, and holding on stp ..?


  268.  AMZN-I would wait for a pullback at this point, or slowly leg into the trade, buying 1/2 of what you want here, and the other 1/2 on a pullback. There is not enough premium in the 70′s. I would go with 85/75 or I would do a 90/80 or 85/80 ratioed. If you are short the 80′s (which have a lot of premium in them still), you want to be ratioed (less puts sold than the puts owned), because if the position keeps going your way you might be in trouble on a 1/1.


  269.  Bees, I never have targets. If you want to protect some of your profits you can always sell 1/3 or so. I don’t follow MON closely but $72 was obvious support earlier. But stay in the trade, at least partially, until it closes above 5MA.


  270.   JP Morgan shuffles ratings in solar sector, downgrades First Solar

    JP Morgan recommends investors take a defensive position in solar stocks for the second half of 2009 and focus on companies with downside support. The firm downgraded First Solar (FSLR) to Neutral from Overweight on concerns margins may come down due to aggressive pricing and Germany’s subsidy cut could be larger than expected. However, JP Morgan initiated Energy Conversion (ENER) with an Overweight as they see limited downside and an attractive valuation and upgraded Evergreen Solar (ESLR) to Overweight from Underweight due to valuation and low expectations. JP Morgan also upgraded Ascent Solar (ASTI) and Sunpower (SPWRA) to Neutral from Underweight. The firm has a $9.50 price target on Ascent Solar, $28.50 target on Energy Conversion, $5 target on Evergreen Solar, $140 target on First Solar, and $25 target on Sunpower. 

  271.  Surprising that FSLR is green, even with this downgrade, on a big down, with USO down 3%.


  272.  Noted, very helpful.  Thanks!!


  273.  Bought a Spider straddle 2 days ago when I talked about it. Doing real good today with IV jumping.


  274.  ANF testing $24. There is some strong support here.


  275. Hi Opt – I’ve been away for a week (I sold everything before I went). Which open positions do you consider still good for new entry?


  276. Opt – On appl – what particular data/chart/information made you exit the last 1/3 in the morning – as opposed to EOD ? Thx.


  277.  Marek, I still like AMZN and ANF puts. Probably slowly legging-in here. I am bearish overall but still like STP based on the chart. And INTC.

    I still have some shorts on PALM, but it is risky, as you know. Then all the retailers that I have been looking at, such as WSM.


  278.  AAPL-Partha, you are right, if I had been very disciplined I should have waited until EOD, but that’s based on the lagging method. Did you read about the leading indicators?

    I almost sold the last 1/3 yesterday when we printed a shooting star, right after a double top. That was clearly a reversal candle, at the top of an uptrend. I decided to keep it only because I needed to keep some calls overnight for balance as we are very bearish already. 

    So this morning I was watching it closely. When it broke $140, the probability that it would close above 5MA became very slight, so I waited for a bounce. When it bounced to $140.75, I got-out, as posted.

    Does it make sense?


  279. Thank you Opt!


  280. Opt – Make sense.  Not very good at recogonizing candle patterns.  Thx – need to keep practicing..


  281.  ANF just keeps going. Trying to get a fill on those last contracts to be to a full 2/3 position, but it keeps getting away from me.


  282.  Rolled down my ANF 27-24 into the 26-23.  I just put a new line and another 1/2 on as it gets confusing on the spreadsheet otherwise.  Also trouble getting filled, only have 3/4 of 1/2 on the second set


  283.  France -3%. I would not be surprised if we go lower today.


  284. OPT – Will not be around this afternoon.   Have a great vacation !


  285.  Thanks, Albo! Enjoy the long weekend.


  286.  I love that MSFT is dropping today. That’s one I keep on the radar for possible bullish bet, when things turn. That and AAPL.


  287.  HES breaking down through big support


  288. Opt, can you clarify your statement regarding MSFT? Are you saying that you would buy MSFT at this point or are you saying that it is an indicator that the entire market is about to turn bearish?


  289. Opt:  1) on your spider straddle, how far out did you buy?  2) on your AZO straddle, when you say you "play a lot with it", what is your "play" strategy, 3) will you publish your vertical article before you leave on vacation?  Thanks


  290.  Well, STP is doing its job of protecting our AGU puts.


  291.  How are you set up in STP, My 16-19 vertical is not doing much


  292.  Daniel

    1) July.

    2) AZO is not a straddle, it’s just a vertical. I have been playing the range between $150-$151 and $153. Reducing my delta at resistance, increasing at support.

    It is my goal to finish the vertical article either before I leave or in the plane.


  293.  I have the 16/19 vertical as well in STP. My average price is $1.92. It is trading at $2.125 right now. Not that much of a move yet, but it protects our AGU.


  294.  I rarely look at my P/L during the day, so my comment about STP was more about the stock being up, when AGU is up as well.


  295. Opt, if you were ahead in AGU at this point, wouldn’t it be better to exit and re-enter later?


  296.  Arindam, why? do you think it keeps going higher? 


  297. Opt:  When you reduce Delta on your AZO vertical, do you simply adjust both legs at the same time, or do you simply adjust one leg (short side)?  What is the thought process behind adjusting a single leg at a time?  Thanks … BTW, I knew AZO was a vertical, the straddle was a misprint on my part.  :-)


  298. with the Ags, it’s very difficult to know. Sometimes the price moves irrationally higher or lower. AGU is still down compared to POT, etc, due to the acquisition news related drag but not sure how it’s going to behave come Monday.


  299.  Daniel, when I play with it like this, I just do one leg to reduce commissions. There is really no specific thought process, just selling more short at resistance and buying more at support.


  300.  Arindamc, I have no idea either. So I just stick to the strategy and stay in for now. Sure I could try to get out right now, hoping to short again at a higher level. But it could drop as soon as I sell. Who knows…


  301.  Will be interesting to see what happens at SPX 900


  302. Opt:  Regarding reducing Delta on your AZO verical:  1) when you say "selling more short at resistance" I assume you mean increasing your short puts at 153 (STO).  2) when you "sell more at resistance," to adjust delta, how do you avoid do avoid owning more short contracts than long contracts, 3) When you say "buying more at support" I assume you mean decreasing your short put exposure at 150 (BTC, not buying more long puts)?  Somehow, I would think you would want to do just the opposite, ie. increasing your short puts at support (150) and decreasing your short puts (taking profit) at resistance (153)?  Or have you reversed your definition for support and resistance for bearish stocks?  Sorry for being a bit dense?   Thanks.  


  303.  1) No, the opposite. I meant I get "more short". Which means buying more long puts or buying back some of the short puts. Sorry, it was not clear at all in my post. 

    2) I am buying back some of the puts I have sold.

    3) One or the other (opposite of course).

    No I have not reversed the definition. Just bad english, sorry.


  304. Opt – thanks, that helps … makes more sense now.  Have a great vacation and thanks again for the continuing education. 


  305. Anything could happen, but I would be very surprised if we get a strong close. Would seem scary to stay long over the long weekend, with Europe open tomorrow.


  306.  I now have 2/3 of a position left in ANF.


  307.  Here comes the test of 900


  308.  S3 is at 891 on ES


  309.  ~HOD6


  310. CBD HOD = 39.35…Last = 39.18
    CTV HOD = 26.25…Last = 26.15
    GLD HOD = 91.58…Last = 91.4
    MCD HOD = 57.83…Last = 57.5
    MRVL HOD = 11.75…Last = 11.7
    NWY HOD = 3.25…Last = 3.25
    OTEX HOD = 36.95…Last = 36.76
    QID HOD = 33.51…Last = 33.31


  311.   iPhone release in China may face setback, ComputerWorld reports

    While Apple (AAPL) is in talks with China Unicom (CHU) to offer the iPhone in China, the potential deal may face a setback due to a trademark conflict. Hanwang Technology owns the trademark "i-phone" for mobile phones in China and the similarity with Apple’s iPhone may make it illegal to sell the phone in China. According to the website of China’s trademark office, Apple registered the iPhone trademark in China in late 2002 but the application only covered hardware and software, not mobile phone

  312.  Opt, what did you use for stop on ANF?  Also, did you do the 26/23 vertical July’s??  Thanks


  313.  ANF-I just doubled the position I had on. Stop at 5MA. And I have the 26′s indeed, covered with some 24′s and some 23′s at this point.


  314.  /OS sold 1/3 AGU puts. We are just too bearish, so reducing exposure.


  315.  That was just a great day! Loved the close on AZO as well. Have a great weekend everyone!!!!


  316.  Got it thanks.  Do you use the exact 5MA of 25.42?


  317.  No, we always give ourselves some room above/below 5MA.


  318. Noted


  319. Question for Opt, or anyone else who may know.
    The spreadsheet at top is the same for all posts going back through May.
    Is this a bug, or a feature?
     
    Also, I didn’t see an alert or any "/OB" in comments for the STP calls at the top of the sheet.
    Am I seeing the same spreadsheet everyone else is?


  320. Opt
          How do you calculate your pivots?
    <S3 is at 891 on ES>


  321. tradansh,
    I think Opt may be gone. I’m trying to get an answer myself. 
    If its any help, my guess is he uses the TOS (Thinkorswim) pivot point calculator, built in study for the think desktop platform. But opt can confirm when he gets back.


  322.  No, I am still here ;-) Leaving tomorrow.

    The spreadsheet is the same, because it is dynamic, it’s a link, and I just update it. However, since last month, when I do a recap I take a snapshot. You can see in the last recap, where the trades are not the same (they are the trades at the time I did the recap). For older trades, if you want to know something, you can email me, I have kept snapshots.

    For STP, I did forget the /OB, sorry…


  323.  For Pivot points, I get them from the chart. On TOS go to:

    _ Studies

    - Add study

    - Support and resitance studies

    - Pivot points


  324. Good morning from France, everyone :-)


  325.  Vive la France!


  326.  Good morning!


  327. New post! Sorry, I am a little bit late today…


  328. good morning opt! how’s the weather there ? I have a question looking at mon it open near the support around 70.xx something do you take some of the poistion off? if I do then what about stp do I leave it there or reduce the size as well? or I just wait until stp stopped out ?


  329. AMGN HOD = 52.72…Last = 52.61
    AZO HOD = 151.7899…Last = 151.18
    CLB HOD = 82.77…Last = 82.5
    CLR HOD = 23.2…Last = 23.07
    GLD HOD = 90.98…Last = 90.68
    JNJ HOD = 56.71…Last = 56.69
    K HOD = 48.48…Last = 48.33
    KO HOD = 49.17…Last = 49.06
    LO HOD = 69.37…Last = 68.97
    QID HOD = 34.85…Last = 34.72
    ROST HOD = 38.98…Last = 38.81
    SJM HOD = 49.05…Last = 48.81
    WMT HOD = 48.05…Last = 47.93