Archive for January, 2010

Weekly Market Report

Weekly Market Report

(January 31st, 2010 – February 6th, 2010)

Courtesy of InTheMoneyStocks

 

The SPX continued to decline lower again for the third consecutive week. It closed below it’s weekly 20 moving average on very strong volume. This is the sharpest pullback in the SPX since June 2009. In the June to July pullback phase the SPX lost 87 points from peak to trough. Curently this January decline has given back 77 points from it’s recent 1150 top. The weekly support levels for the SPX are 1050.00 and 1000.00 should the decline continue. Since the March low the SPX has not had a single 10 percent correction. In order for a ten percent correction to occur the SPX would need to trade down to the 1035.00 level.

The U.S. Oil Fund (USO) pulled back again this week as the U.S. Dollar traded higher. Oil continues to remain is a sideways base or channel. Currently the low range can be bought and the high range can be sold. This range looks as if it can be bought at the low end and sold at the high end until the USO breaks out or breaks down of this channel. For the near term expect the 10 point range to be in play.    

The SPDR Gold Shares(GLD) sold off with most other commodities this past week as the U.S. Dollar increased. The weekly 105.00 support level held this past week for the GLD. Shoud the 105.00 level fail to hold the next major support level for the GLD will be 100.00 level. Please remember to monitor the U.S. Dollar as gold and the dollar generally trade inverse to each other. Gold is veiwed by many as a global currency and an option against the U.S. Dollar should it decline.

The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) climbed higher again this past week. In last weeks brief report we pointed out the 80.00 resistance level that is now in play and expected off of the current chart pattern. This resistance level should still be watched and possibly a little higher on the DXY. The weekly 200 moving average is currently at 80.58 and is likely the next target for the DXY. Often when price gets very close…
continue reading





Changing Ships

Changing Ships

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

Yeah, so health care didn’t work.  Now, Obama has gotten serious about finance reform.  Only problem is, the health care battle has taken a political toll and the stolen bonuses and lack of lending have been in full effect for another year.

One wonders "What’s the point now?"  Opportunity squandered, expect another America-crushing catastrophe sometime later this decade….it will start in the financial markets.

Cartoon by Mike O’Keefe/ Denver Post

 


Tags: , , ,




Understanding Market Cycles: The Art of Market Timing

Pharmboy, member of our team at PSW, has been writing a book on Technical Analysis.  Here is the first chapter for your enjoyment/educational experience. - Ilene  

Understanding Market Cycles: The Art of Market Timing

Courtesy of Pharmboy

Experts and the main stream media say that market timing is impossible.  That much is true, but when TA is used, timing market movement is very profitable on a consistent basis.  As a technical trader, the purpose is to find the best trades and to time the entry and exit points.  After all, any trader can find the best trade in the world, but if it is not timed well, it may turn into a loss.  Every stock or asset class goes through a classic market cycle.  Figure 1 is a diagram of the four stages of the market cycle:

Figure 1.  Four stages of the market cycle.

 

   

When looking at the charts of any stock or index, notice that it moves in cycles.  By observing cycles, what to expect next is easier to comprehend.  Figure 2 shows two stocks that have completed each of the four stages.

 

Figure 2a and b.  Market stages of two companies.  

2a. Amylin       

 

amln

 

 

2b.  MEMC 

 

 

For a long-term investor or trader, understanding market cycles can greatly benefit their portfolio.

Stages of a Market Cycle

  • Accumulation Phase – This is the bottom (or near the bottom) of a particular stock, sector, or general market.  At this stage, prices do not move upward but rather stay within a neutral trading range.  At this level, the smart money begins to buy up large blocks of shares to accumulate a large position for their portfolio.  They are patient enough to wait years, if needed, because it is difficult to determine how long a stock or sector will be in this stage.  Regular individual retail investors do not even consider buying at this level because, in most cases, they have recently sold into the lows.  At PSW, this is the stage where stocks are nominated to the Watchlist and the biggest discounts


continue reading





Durable Goods: More Guns Than Butter

Durable Goods: More Guns Than Butter

Courtesy of Adam Sharp of Bearish News

Haver Analytics gives us this chart/data:

military spending on durable goods

Military should be the first in line for budget slashing, but the opposite is taking place. While “defense” spending  does boost GDP, and preserve (politically important) jobs, it’s still a huge drag on the real economy.

America’s military is bloated, and much like the FIRE sector, it needs shrinking. Both are incredibly inefficient ways to grow/stimulate an economy. In their current state, both are a drain on American resources. And with their armies of lobbyists, this isn’t likely to change soon.

America faces a funding crisis like we have never seen. The U.S. remains the world’s lone superpower. That would still be the case if we cut military spending 30%.  Reducing the budget and shifting those jobs to more productive areas, like energy and manufacturing, would have immensely positive effects on the economy.

The question is – do our political leaders have the courage to cut spending before things get out of control? Based on what we’ve seen so far – the answer is clearly no.

*****

See also: Clinton presses China over Iran nuke sanctions, Mike "Mish" Shedlock

The country most responsible for the "Arms Race" is the United States of America. US troops stationed all over the world are a destabilizing force….

Earlier today I commented on a huge protest in Japan over US bases. Please see Thousands in Tokyo Protest Against US Troops in Japan for details.

The end of US global dictatorship is nigh. That is a good thing given that we cannot afford the cost.

 





Marcy Kaptur Busting Geithner’s Balls

Marcy Kaptur Busting Geithner’s Balls

Courtesy of Adam Sharp at Bearish News

I approve of this questioning by the Rep from Ohio:

On a related note, I’m almost done with Too Big to Fail — Andrew Sorkin’s insanely investigative bailout book. The stuff on AIG is fascinating. Apparently when the 100% payout was finalized, some pissed-off AIG guys saw some Goldman guys high-fiving each other, ecstatic about the deal.

 





Market Snapshot + Bear Flag Chart Pattern

Courtesy of Market Tamer 

Market Snapshot

ECONOMIC REPORTS

MONDAY 2/1 Personal Income, Personal Spending, Construction Spending, ISM Index

TUESDAY 2/2 Pending Home Sales, Auto Sales, Truck Sales

WEDNESDAY 2/3 Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Change, ISM Services, Crude Inventories 

THURSDAY 2/4 Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Productivity-Prel, Unit Labor Costs-Preliminary, Factory orders 

FRIDAY 2/5 Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings, Consumer Credit

EARNINGS OF NOTE

MONDAY 2/1 ACV, APC, GCI, HUM, MNKD, PCL, SOHU, TUP

TUESDAY 2/2 AFL, ADM, CTRP, CMI, DHI, FISV, JDSU, MTW, MAN, MRO, MEE, MET, MYGN, NETL, PBG, SU, DOW, HSY, UPS, UNM, GRA, WHR

WEDNESDAY 2/3  AKAM, AMP, BDK, BRCM, CBG, CSCO, CMCSA, EFX, HMC, INSP, IP, MWW, NOV, NVLS, PFE, RL, BCO, TWX, V, WLT, YUM

THURSDAY 2/4  BEBE, BKC, CME, CI, DB, DO, GSK, HIT, K, MA, MCO, NOC, PENN, PBI, SLE, SNE, HOT, SUN, TM, UIS

FRIDAY 2/5 AET, AON, BZH, PC, TSN, WY


Stock Market Insights: The Cash Flow Statement

 

Cash is king!  Liquidity in the form of cash tells us that the company can meet its obligations.  The Cash Flow Statement is the third and last statement that we will touch upon.  The statement is filed quarterly and year over year in concert with the Profit and Loss and Balance Sheet.  The Cash Flow Statement is a measure of incoming and outgoing cash from its business operations for a specific point in time.  The statement further defines the cash flow of the company that is indicated on the Balance Sheet.  There are two methods of accounting that are used 1) accrual and 2) cash.  Most companies use the accrual method which accounts for goods delivered as sales regardless of whether they have been paid for or not.  The outstanding balance is shown on the Profit and Loss Statement under accounts receivable.

 

The Cash Flow statement typically divides the accounting for cash into
continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




Understanding Market Cycles: The Art of Market Timing

Pharmboy, member of our team at PSW, has been writing a book on Technical Analysis.  Here is the first chapter for your enjoyment/educational experience. - Ilene  

Understanding Market Cycles: The Art of Market Timing

Courtesy of Pharmboy

Experts and the main stream media say that market timing is impossible.  That much is true, but when TA is used, timing market movement is very profitable on a consistent basis.  As a technical trader, the purpose is to find the best trades and to time the entry and exit points.  After all, any trader can find the best trade in the world, but if it is not timed well, it may turn into a loss.  Every stock or asset class goes through a classic market cycle.  Figure 1 is a diagram of the four stages of the market cycle:

Figure 1.  Four stages of the market cycle.

 

 

When looking at the charts of any stock or index, notice that it moves in cycles.  By observing cycles, what to expect next is easier to comprehend.  Figure 2 shows two stocks that have completed each of the four stages.

 

Figure 2a and b.  Market stages of two companies.  

2a. Amylin       

 

amln

 

 

2b.  MEMC 

 

 

For a long-term investor or trader, understanding market cycles can greatly benefit their portfolio.

Stages of a Market Cycle

  • Accumulation Phase – This is the bottom (or near the bottom) of a particular stock, sector, or general market.  At this stage, prices do not move upward but rather stay within a neutral trading range.  At this level, the smart money begins to buy up large blocks of shares to accumulate a large position for their portfolio.  They are patient enough to wait years, if needed, because it is difficult to determine how long a stock or sector will be in this stage.  Regular individual retail investors do not even consider buying at this level because, in most cases, they have recently sold into the lows.  At PSW, this is the stage where stocks are nominated to the Watchlist and the biggest


continue reading





Front-Running the Markets And the Sickness Unto Death

Front-Running the Markets And the Sickness Unto Death

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain 

Financial Information

And that is the nature of Goldman. Gather up as many customers as possible, aggregate the available information to achieve a superior market view and then relentlessly extract rents from the marketplace. Better yet, tell yourself you’re smarter than everyone else and you’ve earned the rents from the symbiosis."

James Rickards, former General Counsel of Long Term Capital Management

This is a nice, concise, albeit somewhat simplified description, from a more mainstream and highly credible source, of how the markets are operating today to the extreme disadvantage of the public and the real economy. Between front-running and naked short selling the banks have things pretty well under their control.

The market makers are the Wall Street banks are the prop trading desks, trading at high frequency slightly ahead of the markets while peeking into your accounts, gaining just enough unfair advantage to defy the odds of winning and losing in a fairly regulated market.

From James Rickards, The Frog, The Scorpion, and Goldman Sachs:

"Now consider another example of data mining, not done by retail firms, but by giant investment banks such as Goldman Sachs. These banks have thousands of customers transacting in trillions of dollars in stocks, bonds, commodities and foreign exchange daily. By using systems with anodyne names like SecDB, Goldman not only sees the transaction flows but some of the outright positions and whether they are bullish or bearish. Data mining techniques are just as effective for this market information as they are for Google, Amazon, Wal-Mart and others. It’s not necessary to access individual accounts to be useful. The data can be aggregated so that the bank can look at positions on a portfolio basis without knowing the name of each customer.

One need not be a market expert to imagine the power of this information. You can see which way the winds are blowing before the storm hits. You get a sense of when momentum is draining out of a trade so you can get out of it before the market turns. You can see when bullish or bearish sentiment reaches extremes, suggesting it may soon turn the other way. This use of information is the ultimate type of insider trading because it does not break the law;


continue reading


Tags: , ,




The First Year of Obama’s Failed Economic Policies: The Worst May Yet Be Avoided

The First Year of Obama’s Failed Economic Policies: The Worst May Yet Be Avoided  

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain  

"The banks must be restrained, the financial system reformed, and balance restored to the economy before there can be any sustained recovery."

We have been saying this for some time. The report below from Neil Barofsky says essentially the same thing.

"Even if TARP saved our financial system from driving off a cliff back in 2008, absent meaningful reform, we are still driving on the same winding mountain road, but this time in a faster car," Barofsky wrote.

The US is heading towards a double dip recession, and the next leg down may be more fundamentally damaging than before.

The reason for the decline will be the abject failure of the Obama Administration to address the roots of the problem, instead wasting trillions to prop up a banking system that is a useless distortion.

Worse than useless really, because it actually presents a huge negative influence by stifling the recovery, channeling funds to the crony capitalists and non-producing wealth extraction sector, who tax the people like feudal lords under license of a corrupt government.

So far, Obama has failed the people, but preserved the banks. A source of his failure has been his weakness in listening to Larry Summers and Tim Geithner, the Rubin-Clinton wing of Democrats, who have well established their incompetence and inability to act at a level suitable to their positions. They are captive to special interests, locked into the ways of thinking that brought the world to the point of crisis.

In response to the next leg down, Bernanke will monetize debt at an even more furious and clever pace, perhaps in alliance with the Bank of England and Bank of Japan. The ECB resists, and all who balk will be chastised by the monied powers and their demimonde, the ratings agencies and global banks. This is modern warfare of a sort.

We do not expect the corruption of the world’s reserves to be so blatant that the inflation will immediately appear, except in more subtle manner. At some point it may explode, especially if Ben is particularly good at concealing its subtle growth.

Monetary inflation is the growth of the money supply in excess of the demands of the real economy, not nominal growth of the supply. The US has been shifting…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




“Wait, Why Am I in AIG Again?”…The Buy Anything Phase is Over

Joshua Brown says its time to disgorge oneself of one’s garbage. Maybe idiots made from this rally will finally be right. - Ilene

“Wait, Why Am I in AIG Again?”…The Buy Anything Phase is Over

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

Waking Up to Messiness

So you gorged yourself on garbage, chased the china plays, munched on materials and binged on beta…

Now that everything on earth is breaking 50 and 200 day moving averages, your junk food holdings are producing the inevitable tummy ache.

The good news is, you’ve got company.  Fight the urge to rationalize these holdings before they do more damage.

With the big leadership like Apple ($AAPL) and US Steel ($X) under enormous pressure, what hope do the trashiest stocks really have right now?  The answer is that they will be sold even faster than they were bought should this market continue to sell off on both good and bad news.

Greater Fool had worked fairly consistently for months as traders learned that each afternoon, regardless of the news, positions could be turned over to their new owners at ever-higher prices.

The mantra was "follow price" and "it’ll work until it doesn’t work" and "don’t fight the tape".  This led to a broadening rally that rewarded the worst of the merchandise – from small caps to functionally insolvent entities like $AIG, $FNM, $FRE to emerging spec stories to developmental biotech and cleantech companies.

Sitting in more defensive plays like Waste Management ($WM) and Wal-Mart ($WMT) and remaining disciplined with some cash made you look (and feel) like a chump while the dashing trader on the other side of the desk played Chilean fertilizer names or Peruvian silver mining names for triple digit gains on a regular basis.  The temptation to say f&*% it and get in the game was pervasive.

If you dabbled in junk and were then caught blindsided by the change in this tape that began 12 days ago, consider this weekend your chance to make things right.  Even if this just proves to be a dip and the rally resumes through February, at least this will have been your chance to take a hard look at some of the junk you’ve accumulated.

Without having a…
continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

 

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

Courtesy of Chusu He, Coventry University

Investors are still being fairly complacent about the novel coronavirus. After the number of new daily cases suddenly shot up to more than 15,000 on February 12 following more than a week of decline, there were some jitters in the markets. With Chinese authorities saying the increase was due to a decision to broaden the definition for diagnosing people, there were falls in the region of 1% in European markets, and smaller retrenchments in Asia and North America.

It is...



more from Ilene

Biotech & Health

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

 

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

Courtesy of Chusu He, Coventry University

Investors are still being fairly complacent about the novel coronavirus. After the number of new daily cases suddenly shot up to more than 15,000 on February 12 following more than a week of decline, there were some jitters in the markets. With Chinese authorities saying the increase was due to a decision to broaden the definition for diagnosing people, there were falls in the region of 1% in European markets, and smaller retrenchments in Asia and North America.

It is...



more from Biotech

Zero Hedge

China Adopts 'Cultural Revolution-Style' Social Controls To Crush Outbreak As Death Toll Nears 2,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • Taiwan reports 1st coronavirus death
  • Hubei reports 1,933 new cases, 100 deaths
  • Hubei health officials report 1,933 new cases, 100 new deaths
  • Taiwan taxi driver who died from virus carried passengers from mainland, Hong Kong, Macau
  • Singapore reports 3 more cases
  • Total cases aboard 'Diamond Princess' climbs to 355 as US prepares to evacuate citizens
  • Indonesia says 6 passengers from Westerdam cruise ship tested negative
  • There are now at least 68,500 cases worldwide, and at least 1,665 de...


more from Tyler

Members' Corner

How to Stop Bill Barr

 

How to Stop Bill Barr

We must remove this cancer on our democracy.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

...



more from Our Members

The Technical Traders

Is The Technology Sector Setting Up For A Crash? Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

One thing that continues to amaze our research team is the total scale and scope of the Capital Shift which is taking place across the globe.  For almost 5+ years, foreign investors have been piling into the US stock market chasing the stronger US dollar and continued advancement of US share prices. It is almost like there is no other place on the planet that will allow investors to pool capital into such a variety of strong assets while protecting against foreign capital risks.  Yet the one big question remains – when will a price reversion event hit the US stock
market?

So many researchers, even our team of researchers, believe we have found the keys to unloc...



more from Tech. Traders

Kimble Charting Solutions

Joe Friday Says Germany (DAX) Could Rally 30%, Happy Valentines Day For The Bulls!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

German DAX Index “weekly” Chart

The German DAX is one of the more important global stock market indices, as it represents the largest economy / market in the Euro Zone.

So it would be a real treat for the bulls to see this stock market index breakout as we celebrate Valentine’s Day.

The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts; The German DAX looks to have formed a bullish ascending triangle over the past 3 years and it is currently attempting to breakout above the top at (1)....



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Nissan Shares Tumble To Decade Low After Q3 Earnings Miss

Courtesy of Benzinga

The shares of Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (OTC: NSANY) dropped to a decade low on Thursday after the company missed third-quarter earnings estimates and significantly cut its annual forecast for the financial 2019 year.

What Happened

Nissan, on Thursday, reported a net loss o...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

ValueWalk

Russell 2000 Index (RUT) hits an almost one-month high

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Ad the Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, commenting on today’s trading Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) Outperforms Large-Cap Benchmarks

While the overnight session was nothing short of scary stocks held on to most of yesterday's gains and small-caps even extended their winning streak. The Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, finishing higher for the fourth day in a row while outperforming the large-cap benchmarks, and since the Volatility...



more from ValueWalk

Chart School

Dow theory warning from the Utilities Index

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Charles Dow died in 1902, and the investors should thank him for his ever lasting Dow Theory Analysis.

Carrying on this blog theme looking at the Utility stocks. Previous post.
Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends



You can learn about Dow Theory here

This post is concerned wi...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Price May Hit $27K All-Time High By Summer, Predicts Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin is primed for average gains of almost 200% over the next six months, one of its best-known supporters has told mainstream media. 

...



more from Bitcoin

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.