We had a decent week with a limited number of trades this week as we move into what I think should be a big week for us. The market has increased at some pretty alarming rates over the past couple weeks, and I think we may be setting things up as a bit toppy. Next week, we have a slow week in economic data, earnings reports, and the technicals are showing a majority of stocks and ETFs as overvalued. My early prediction is that we will be looking at some inverse ETFs for Buy Picks and a lot of great short sales.
For this week, we had some positive picks with Ultra Proshares Financials (UYG) and Direxion Daily Real Estate ETF (DRN). We ran into some issues, though, with our Overnight Trade of Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF) and a Short Sale on Dillard’s (DDS). We were able to relay the market’s upward trend into some positives by picking ETFs that were volatile and move with an upward trending market. On the other hand, the solar sector and short sales gave us a headache. Let’s recap:
Winners:
Direxion Daily Real Estate ETF (DRN): On Monday, we relayed this Buy Pick of the Day into a 3% gainer. We got involved at 138.60 and sold at 142.49. We liked DRN because of some great news coming out of Greece that it was stable, some great personal spending numbers that were up much larger than expectations, and the world markets continuing to trend upwards. It all turned into a slow move up for the market, which DRN followed.
Ultra Proshares Financials (UYG): Friday was an up and down day for us. The good side of the day came from a solid 2% move upwards for out UYG daytrade. Things looked to continue upwards on Friday with the GDP report and some good earnings. We liked UYG to move a bit under the radar and follow the market up, and I was right.
Losers:
Dillards (DDS): The major move upwards on Monday made our Short Sale of the Day on Dillards a mistake. The earnings on DDS were pretty exceptional, but I did not think they were good enough to make the stock move up what would be 15% in one day. The stock was up near 10% in pre-market, and it appeared to be a solid short. The market momentum and retail momentum were too great. We lost 3%.
Solarfun Power (SOLF): Solar was not bright for us as I had hoped this week. We played our Overnight Trade of the Day by getting involved in this one at 7.25 on Thursday afternoon. We were up over 2% when we closed, but the stock opened down at 7.14 where we got out for a small 1.5% loss. The mistake was made by a missed EPS estimate that was much higher than I thought it was and a downgrade by S&P. I may be giving up on my former favorite.
Additionally, I have done a major update of my Virtual Portfolio that tracks my picks. I started tracking my Buy Picks on March 9, 2009 when I worked on my old website www.theoxengroup.com. The way the virtual portfolio works is that I have three accounts that all started with $1000 each for a total of $3000. The accounts are separated since we make day trades, so we can account for the free riding issue and money can settle. Each trade costs $4 that I make on the virtual portfolio. Below I have provided what we have done since the beginning of the year. On January 1, my account was at $6247.96. Now, we are at $6871.92. That was an increase of 10% over the past two months. Over the past twelve months, however, we have increased our virtual portfolio 129%. I have provided the trades from January through present. If you would like the entire virtual portfolio just let me know.
Here it is:
| 01/05/10 | SRS | 7.64 | 7.51 | -2.00% | 1975.08 | 6205.64 | ||
| 01/11/2010 – 1/12/10 | INFY | 54.83 | 58.85 | 5.50% | 1888.49 | 6294.28 | ||
| 01/12/10 | SRS | 7.5 | 7.72 | 3.00% | 2188.22 | 6348.86 | ||
| 01/13/10 | ERY | 10.35 | 10.04 | -3.00% | 1908.18 | 6281.96 | ||
| 1/14/10 – 1/15/10 | C | 3.5 | 3.56 | 2.00% | 1912.83 | 6306.3 | ||
| 01/15/10 | UYG | 6.15 | 5.99 | -2.50% | 2123.82 | 6241.9 | ||
| 01/20/10 | SKF | 22.2 | 22.64 | 2.00% | 1937.58 | 6271.3 | ||
| 01/21/10 | FAS | 82.85 | 81.2 | -2.00% | 1866.88 | 6225.35 | ||
| 01/25/10 | DRV | 14 | 14.56 | 4.00% | 2200.94 | 6302.47 | ||
| 01/29/2010 – 02/02/2010 | MHO | 10.35 | 10.97 | 6.00% | 2045.52 | 6410.41 | ||
| 02/01/10 | DIG | 32.5 | 33.3 | 2.50% | 1904.48 | 6448.01 | ||
| 02/09/10 | ACLI | 19.56 | 20.04 | 3.00% | 2246.7 | 6493.77 | ||
| 02/09/2010 – 02/11/2010 | HNSN | 2.57 | 2.74 | 7.00% | 2172.67 | 6620.92 | ||
| 02/10/10 | MAC | 30.6 | 29.75 | -2.50% | 1843.78 | 6560.22 | ||
| 2/22/10 – 2/23/10 | SAH | 9.5 | 10.2 | 7.00% | 2475.4 | 6788.92 | ||
| 02/23/10 | ERY | 11.35 | 11.69 | 3.00% | 2229.61 | 6845.86 | ||
| 02/25/2010 – 2/26/10 | LHO | 19.9 | 19.65 | -1.25% | 1812.78 | 6814.86 | ||
| 02/26/10 | DUG | 13.05 | 13.05 | 0.00% | 2463.4 | 6806.86 | ||
| 03/01/10 | DRN | 138.6 | 142.49 | 3.00% | 2283.85 | 6861.1 | ||
| 3/4/10 – 3/5/10 | SOLF | 7.24 | 7.15 | -1.50% | 1782.28 | 6830.6 | ||
| 03/05/10 | UYG | 5.99 | 6.11 | 2.00% | 2504.72 | 6871.92 |
When I joined Phil back in August, I began doing more Short Sale picks and tracking them. The virtual portfolio works exactly like the Buy Pick of the Day virtual portfolio with three different accounts. Over the past two months, I have not had as many Short Sales due to less reports. We have had about ten short sales, and we have increased our virtual portfolio 1%. We missed two big trades over the past week, which reduced us from 5% to 1%. Over the past seven months, we have increased our virtual portfolio 11%. Here is the virtual portfolio since the beginning of the year:
| 01/12/09 | GAP | 10.75 | 10.43 | 3.00% | 1172.52 | 3320.53 | ||
| 01/13/09 | SYMC | 18.8 | 18.61 | 2.00% | 1176.17 | 3324.31 | ||
| 01/15/09 | SHFL | 9.8 | 9.51 | 3.00% | 998.13 | 3345.02 | ||
| 01/20/09 | COV | 52.25 | 51.21 | 2.00% | 1187.4 | 3359.9 | ||
| 01/26/09 | MTG | 6.73 | 6.53 | 3.00% | 1202.97 | 3386.7 | ||
| 02/01/09 | SRS | 8.12 | 8 | 1.50% | 1004.77 | 3393.34 | ||
| 02/03/09 | DUG | 12.5 | 12.8 | -2.00% | 1159.2 | 3365.14 | ||
| 02/16/09 | AESI | 15.9 | 15.42 | 3.00% | 1223.47 | 3385.64 | ||
| 02/23/09 | RDN | 10.15 | 9.85 | 2.00% | 1026.17 | 3407.04 | ||
| 02/26/09 | AXA | 19.75 | 19.16 | -3.00% | 1116.98 | 3364.82 | ||
| 03/01/09 | DDS | 17.9 | 17.36 | -3.00% | 1178.75 | 3320.1 |
Things are looking pretty solid on our Buy Picks and Overnight Trades, and we will continue to find more opportunities. Look for lots of trades next week.
Good Investing,
David Ristau
