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Swing trading virtual portfolio – week of April 19th, 2010

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  1.  good morning.  gold COT still bullish this week.  I expect this pullback in precious metals will either complete today or tomorrow before we get a push up to the old highs


    Suntech upgraded to Hold from Sell at ThinkEquity
    As reported previously, ThinkEquity upgraded Suntech to Hold from Sell. The firm has increased confidence that Germany will not implement a cap on solar installations.


    Lexington Realty upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital
    Target raised to $8 from $6

  4. mentioned positively ahead of results at MKM Partners
    MKM believes can report significant upside to Q1 consensus estimates tomorrow and would be a buyer of the stock ahead of the results. The firm maintains a Buy rating on shares with a $200 price target.


    Apple estimates raised at Kaufman Bros.
    Kaufman Bros. raised its estimates on Apple to reflect higher iPhone and iPad sales than it had previously predicted. The firm thinks the company’s guidance could be less conservative than usual and it reiterates a Buy rating

  6. Opt. What do you think of X puts?

  7.  X-It is right at the 50MA. Wait to see what happens. Last week was a better time to short them.

  8. For anyone playing along in BBI Bonds… from Friday’s press release… cryptic but encouraging. But maybe just planning on filing BK before then!
    "As a result of the continued progress on our recapitalization initiatives, we have rescheduled the annual stockholders’ meeting," stated Tom Casey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Blockbuster Inc.  "We believe the additional time will provide us with the greatest opportunity to successfully complete one or more of our ongoing recapitalization initiatives prior to the annual meeting, possibly resolving our NYSE non-compliance and avoiding the need for a reverse stock split."

  9. TASR for calls … ?

  10.  TASR-Great chart indeed, with good support at the 200MA. The issue with TASR is that anything can happen at anytime (lawsuits), but I do like that chart a lot.

  11. Call me gutsy or call me dumb, but I just bought GS 160/165 call spread before their earnings tomorrow morning. As Opt says, it’s gambling.
    I can’t imagine them saying anything too much worse than everyone is already assuming. Call spread is a good way to limit iVol exposure and to limit downside risk.

  12. that’s too high of a risk Scribe.  2.40 risk to make 2.60.  sell 145 puts to finance it and now you are rock and roll

  13. english – you are happy with youur MON ?

  14. STEC!

  15.  MON-  getting there

  16.  sold a little PEP

  17. Opt – thanks for telling me to adjust STEC – I did it buy buying more Long (as opposed to reducing the short leg) :-)

  18. Expect I bought it for 2.20, lapper. ;) Agreed for an investment it would not be great and your trade would be superior. But this is for a speculative trade.
    Currently, my risk if GS explodes to the downside is 2.20 (actually less because OTM spreads don’t tend to lose all their value this early in the month even with a large move). If I were to sell a put to finance the spread I increase my risk exponentially if there is a large move down. I love the strategy you describe for companies I believe in and wouldn’t mind having put to me. In fact I am using it with APWR right now. But GS is either going to shoot higher tomorrow morning or drop hard. I’m simply placing a directional gamble that it goes higher. I don’t want to own the company long term.

  19. And GS is green (so’s the spread)…

  20. Scribe, for your trade to work two things have to happen, they have to significantly beat and the scandal has to somewhat go away.  I would still sell OTM calls and puts along with bull spread.  Yes risk increases, but at least payoff would be decent.  If you don’t like holding it LT can do ratio on OTM puts.  But all that said it is a gamble, I just see my gamble as a better risk reward.

  21.  I don;t like that spread too much either, Scribe. You are restricitng your profit way too much for the risk. I don’t like verticals as an earnings play in general.

  22.  /OS sold 1/3 WFMI

  23. BIDU – finally putting in 2 back to back days (so far) – its at the 20d …

  24. I am looking at UNH, and WLP for some calls and DRYS, KR, and TXN as a put play. Any opinions?

  25.  I don’t see much in the path of GMCR until around 90, what do you see OPT?

  26. This spread certainly has some enemies! I normally don’t like spreads into earnings either, except when I feel the move will be substantial and I don’t know the direction. I’m not sure what’s not to like in this situation. Stand to gain more if right than what would be lost if wrong. Limited iVol exposure. Limited risk in a highly uncertain environment.
    Here’s a question: Who is going to sell that hasn’t already unless GS comes out and says " we missed earnings and we’re guilty" tomorrow? Think anyone was saying "suit sounds bad but let’s wait to see earnings before selling" when GS plummeted Friday? Me either. GS gets to put their polish on this turd tomorrow and I bet the market buys it for a least a couple hours and that’s where I plan to sell. Hey, I could be wrong, but the risk is limited if I am.
    I know I won’t be making anywhere near the while 2.80 potential profit if I’m right and GS pops tomorrow. But I also won’t lose the full 2.20 I could if GS drops either. What I’m looking for a a quick 50% gain in the value of the spread if I am right and GS goes higher. I would expect similar downside if I am wrong. The spread is actually making money so far as iVol has been shrinking this morning. If this keeps up I might just sell before the close, but I doubt it.

  27. Opt- what is your feeling this week on AMZN?

  28.  I don’t either. The 50 is at $90.24

  29.  /OS sold 1/3 STP

  30. Opt, did you have to sell any STP?  My delta is 2/3 from the drop anyway

  31.  Mine too, but I still wanted to reduce more. Those solars can move fast as you know, and this chart is not looking very good here. Let’s see, I might buy back later, but did not want to risk a 4%-5% move.

  32.  sold some QCOM calls this morning, not doing much but earnings are Wednesday

  33.  I hear ya, I sold a little, sitting under 2/3 a bit.  They tend to be over sensitive to the marklet down moves due to the speculative nature of the business itself

  34.  Scribe, it is not that I don’t like spreads into earnings, it is that I don’t like vertical spreads, when they are not part of a butterfly. During earnings you want to be able to profit from a large move, that’s the point of playing earnings, no? With a tight vertical spread, you limit your upside, while also limiting the range in the range for which you will have a profit. Why not do a calendar instead? A ratio backspread? 

    That being said, if you like it, go for it. No one knows what might happen during earnings, and it might be the right trade.

  35.  AMZN-Well, this is a bearish chart obviously. Now, earnings are in 3 days, so difficult to guess how it would run ahead of them. but we follow prices anyway, we don’t try to predict them.

  36. Sold some X puts.

  37.  X going through the 50 now.

  38.  Now, that is insane, but it does look like the real thing (new Iphone). Found in a bar ;-)

  39. Opt what are your thoughts about STEC as a bullish play pls?

  40.  STEC-I like th chart, but do we know why it was up so much the other day?

  41.  /OS sold 1/3 ANF puts

  42.  AMZN puts acting very well today in fact. Almost at 1/2 now ;-)

  43.  /OS sold 1/3 GMCR puts as we are at the 50 now.

  44.  would love to get 88.15 area today on GMCR.  Opt, what are you targets there for locking in 1/3. Some support in the 90 area, but not sure it is strong enough to hold

  45.  I just did at the 50, English. No need to be greedy here, we still have 2/3 left. Huge day so far…

  46. Dow testing Friday’s low. If it breaks it’s into the abyss with us.

  47.  ANF and RIMM making my day.

  48.  I have to admit, my day is blah due to my CME position.  I had X from 70 so it is erasing the loss but I had a nice CME flyer from the other day and was looking for a push lower for the crush. If CME can fall apart here i will join you on the cheerleading

  49.  You still have some CME? I did not follow this.

  50. I am really itching to take off some more RIMM, as it is a big position, but would love to see a test of the 200 first, or at least $70.

  51.  well, I had the 310-300 vertical then covered the 300′s when it broke 314 and sold the 320′s and covered those when it traded up there last week, keeping the May 310 the whole time.  I was looking real good and sold about 1/3 against with the May 300′s on the move down on Friday, leaving myself with a nice short delta.  Whalla, up $8.50 here….hhmmm

  52.  RIMM – I am thinking the same thing, was really hoping for one downdraft to sell into under 70, we may still get it, but with my CME short i can be persuaded to go early

  53.  I sold a little bit of AAPL calls here. Not 1/3 yet, let’s see.

  54. AAPL earnings tomorrow.  we have to close anyway today EOD, right?

  55. NFLX  :-)
    As English would say, NFLX "is getting it".
    CME : Barron’s came out with something quite bullish on CME – end of the year target is in the low 400s.

  56.  AAPL-It is tomorrow after close.

  57.  Sold a little bit more AAPL

  58. Opt / English, are you bullish / bearish / neutral on FSLR long term (6 months and beyond)?

  59. Scribe – BBI up ~35%.   Guess we should have traded the stock.  LOL.

  60.  FSLR- no idea on solars long term. Hard to tell what the technology will bring and who will win out or lose and very politically tied

  61.  sold a little extra delta off in RIMM

  62.  /OS done selling 1/3 AAPL.

  63.  FSLR-I have no idea about the LT view. On ST, it looks bearish uder the 200. 

  64.  /OS sold last 1/3 CMG calls.

  65. english: is it finally time to buy MON?

  66. Albo, that’s funny! What’s good for the stock should be good for the bonds eventually. Or so we hope! Makes me laugh.

  67.  I did, but i would wait a bit for a stronger move over the 5 and over the 4 weekly.  Just the contrarian in me looking for a lead when nothing else look good to buy

  68.  what is this breaking news, Hekla volcano erupts?

  69.  Closed GS & ANF puts.  Covered numerous stock positions today.  Short term, I am cautious so trimming & covering.

  70.  The Stone Temple never even gave us a chance

  71.  Just went through a bunch of charts. My favorites for calls (not reporting in the next couple of days): HUM, MON and STEC.

  72.  brainfll, you completelly closed ANF? Any specific reason for that?

  73.  I bought back a little bit of the STP sold earlier.

  74. Anyone looking at SNDK? A bearish call by one of the analysts saying it would be fairly valued in the mid 20s. Of course, earnings are in a couple of days.

  75.  ANF…just catching my breath mid-day as it consolidates a little…may re-enter later in the day, in different account.   Also I balanced the account it was in with selling & covered calls.  I have no calls in this account.

  76.  little surprised by the lack of volume here for more near term downside, should get an idea by the close what we are dealing with perhaps

  77.  Here goes RIMM ;-)

  78.  My advice, English: ignore volume. It does not matter. During the way up, people kept saying that it was low volume, so what? It just kept going anyway.

  79.  Volume matters when you have a reversal. Other than that…

  80.  EL and CREE are turning bearish. but we can’t buy all the puts in the world without calls to balance…

  81.  not touching CREE until that weekly breaks, these 5 days have been head fakes.  Plenty of room to the downside once the weekly breaks

  82. Opt. I need some puts. What would your stop be on CREE an EL? Thank you.

  83.  I shorted a little bit of EL. Let’s see, could not resist.

  84.  slowly selling RIMM 75 puts as the bulk is in the 70′s from before.  If we break through 70, that gamma will fill the whole quickly

  85.  EL, I am still short that one

  86.  CREE-I would use $82.50. And $68 for EL.

  87.  And GMCR losing it….

  88. Been buying a little bit of MON.

  89. Guess I’d better tone down my criticism of Paulson.  He’s buying 13% of ACAS !

    << Back

    American Capital Announces $295 Million Registered Direct Offering of Common Stock at $5.06 Per Share

    BETHESDA, Md., April 19, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ --American Capital, Ltd. (Nasdaq: ACAS) (the "Company") announced today the pricing of a $295 million registered direct offering of common stock to a group of institutional investors. The Company has entered into subscription agreements with the investors to sell an aggregate 58.3 million shares of American Capital’s common stock, including 43.725 million shares to funds and accounts managed by Paulson & Co. Inc., at $5.06 per share. The offering is expected to close on Thursday, April 22, 2010, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions

  90.  Been buying some STEC as well, will get to 1/2 before close.

  91. Albo, are you sure he’s not "buying them short?" Ha! He tends to do that, you know. Was this underwritten by GS? :)

  92.  Nasdaq showing relative weakness today.

  93. Opt - Interesting doji forming on POT at 200 MA.  Will wait for confirmation of reversal tho.

  94.  POT-true

  95. AGU can be used as an alternative to POT for smaller players.

  96. Sold some S  puts to increase my long exposure a bit.

  97.  Sold the STP bought earlier.

  98. The MAY OTM call volume on GS is astonishing. Doubling the open interest at several strikes. Much higher than the put volume, too.

  99. Opt/english: Is it finally time to short CAL, AMR etc?

  100. tempted to sell puts and calls for GS, but implied volatility isn’t really that high is it?

  101. Yeah shorting CAL might be just in time for the volcano to stop and the flights resume.  I would not touch it.

  102.  Not touching the airlines. 

  103. I would expect that tomorrow will be the last day to catch gold before it starts moving to 1200 aggressively for anyone interested.  May be able to get in closer to 1130 tomorrow, but I am fully loaded from friday at 1139 average

  104.  Re-entering ANF puts.

  105.  not touching airlines either

  106.  /OS sold last WFMI calls.

  107.  does anyone here follow sugar at all?  Looks like a good long bet once if verifies that it is done with this aggressive drop

  108.  Sold a little bit LPX on this jump. This one just keeps giving.

  109. Blake, why are you so bullish on gold? Agreed on sugar – there’s an ETF (SGG)

  110. did a couple of calendars on IBM (Jul / May 130) and GS (Jul / May 170). Small positions looking for volatility implosion.

  111.  This is what I was thinking would happen with the lack of volume near the lows today, made for an easy stick save to get things back neutral at least and try to get Europe and Asia back on track following our lead

  112. Blake/GLD: you are trading futures, right?  Would GLD work?

  113.  arindamc- the end of all fiat currency is coming!!! go long canned goods, bottled water, ammunition, and gold!!!  just kidding.  I just have a system that I have been using for a while that is giving me great returns and the current action matches up to a nice move up.  Same reason Opt is bullish on any calls he buys, because his system gives him a buy signal.  I just tend to do well with gold, silver, and dollar futures.  Not so well with pretty much anything else, lol!  I make mistakes, but that is what stops are for.  Not that I am a perma-bull, I was shorting it friday morning for the drop.

  114.  /OB done buying STEC

  115.  Sean- yes, I use futures, but GLD options work well too, lots of liquidity.  If you are interested, wait till tomorrow morning.  IF it doesn’t look bullish by Wednesday, it will be time to reconsider

  116. Adrinamac, careful with GS. Gamma could burn you if GS runs higher (assuming you used calls for your callendars)

  117. STEC announces earnings on 5/11/2010. Last = 13.72

  118. Scribe, for GS – I’m expecting it to trade around 170 by May expiration. That will be a nice return. Even if it drops 10, I should be ok by May expiration. If it goes up to 180 (pretty unlikely since there should be a $10 discount for the SEC news), I can roll the May 170 to June 175 or so to stay even on the trade.

  119.  Optrader- My portfolio has been getting bigger, but I have been keeping my R value the same.  Do you have a good rule about when it is safe to increase R when your portfolio increases in value?  Is there a good % increase that you would like to see before you increase the R value?  thanks for the help

  120.  Well, Blake, if R is a % of your portfolio, then it increases by itself with your portfolio, doesn’t it?

  121.  it does, but i have been keeping it constant.  based off of the original portfolio value.  I figured that raising R every step of the way just seemed riskier to me.  I guess it’s not.  Just hate to increase R value and then go on a run of losses i guess.  

  122.  Considering how you have been trading, you should risk at least 3% of your portfolio on each trade. Just figure-out what it is. If you have a string of losses, it will reduce by itself, that’s the beauty of it ;-)

  123. Blake – what would your stop be on Gold … ?

  124. partha-  I would use 1130 as a stop.  I could deal with a close down to 1130 today, but if it happened tomorrow or later I would want to close out the trade.  Unfortunately, it looks like gold is already on the move this morning.  Might want to wait a bit this morning to see if it pulls back into the 1137 area.  I really don’t know, it might take off from here or pullback, but I do think over the next 2 weeks or so it will be going up. 

  125. SeanC-  if you wanted to play gold, I think the best way to do it is to split up your position equally among SLW, GLD, and GDX calls.  I like futures better, but if you are using options, this is the best way to get good exposure, in my opinion


    Potash upgraded to Hold from Sell at Soleil
    Soleil upgraded Potash due to valuation and maintains a $100 price target for shares.

  127.  /OS sold 1/3 STP

  128.  /OS last AAPL

  129. What do you guys think of HGSI’ announcement of lupus drug trials not being on the mark? Anybody in it?

  130.  GMCR :-)

  131.  GMCR – WOW

  132. Arindamac, it worked out well for you on the GS calendar this morning. Well played. I sold my vertical at the open for a 38% gain (was hoping for 50%, but I’ll take what I can get)
    Lapper, you were absolutely right about being more profitable if I had sold a wide far OTM may strangle (or just OTM puts). I didn’t want the extra risk so I’m content not having done it, but it sure would have paid nicely with this tiny move in GS this morning. It seems like a good way to play earnings on any stock someone wants to own long term or on a pullback.

  133.  /OS sold 1/3 GMCR

  134. Opt & English -Great trade on GMCR !

  135. right does not translate into $ :(   I did not play at all.  I am glad you made money

  136.  Yes, this is turning great, and those puts are doing their thing with delta increasing. I don;t see any news though.

  137. Has to do with Diedrich coffee sales I believe

    $ 11.9 mil (Q3) vs.$13 mil (Q2).

    Also growth in total sales of k-cup slowed to 7.2% in Quarter.

  138.  English, do you have a link to the sales of K-cup? 

  139.  Liking it very much…

  140. here goes gold

  141.  I just sold a little bit of GMCR more. Keeping some though, delta has increased.

  142. sold 1/3 GMCR

  143.  No, I am looking. All I could find was that off a message board. I believe GMCR bought Diedrich though

  144.  Opt, how are you structured in GMCR on the remainder. I am just holding the 100 puts with a little less than 1/3.  Thinking of getting back on the gamma train with such little left and running out of gamma soon here.  not sure what the news will play out, do you like hanging with what works and not buy more premium at this point? a.k.a, rolling down the last third from the 100′s to the 85′s

  145. way to go on GMCR!  I sold yesterday to lock in 20% profit.  nothing compared to today though.

  146. Blake: you were spot on yesterday.  Is it too late (you did say today is the last day)?

  147. well Sean, I am only guessing of course, never know for sure…just looking at repeating patterns and what should happen.  I think this is a good entry point here.  We are looking for 2 weeks of higher prices

  148.  English, I have exactly the same as you, a little less than 1/3 of the 100′s. I am fine with the way it is moving right now, but will add on a bounce and roll lower at that time.

  149. Sean, downside is really only to about 1130.

  150.  Jeddah, you sold all of your GMCR yesterday? Why?

  151. wow, the weekly chart on SPWRA is really compressed.  it’s either going to start flying or fall off a cliff.
    GMCR is buying Dietrich from what I can see.

  152.  That is what I figured. i watched the way you traded X and this seems similar in nature. So I will play it the same way, thank you

  153. CELG trying to break over the 50MA and go higher.

  154. I only had a small position.  after the roller coaster ride, I wanted to lock in profits.  It felt like vindication to take some profits after getting burned so many times.  oh well, I’ll live vicariously through yours and english’s trade :)

  155. Iflan – the AAPL 10dma is 244.11.  Interested to see how it handles that level.

  156. Sean, did you see my post about buying SLW, GDx, and GLD?  I still like futures better, but if you lay options, that is a good mix to have.  Obviously don’t make it 3 full positions, just make it all add up to 1

  157.  Opt, you went with a .40c stop on GMCR, right? ;)

  158.  Would like to see PEP pull a GMCR right about now

  159.  Jeddah, it is very important to let your profits run. I know, it feels good to book a profit, but that is why trading is not about feeling good. trading is the opposite.

    You have to do the things that hurt:

    Taking a loss when the easiest way would be to just ignore it and hope that it will turn

    Letting profits run with the risk of losing some when the easiest way would be to just book it for instant gratification.

  160.  .40c on GMCR???? I have $2.15. If you have $0.40, you can stop trading right now, you are very rich.

  161. Opt – In light of your discussion re: rolling down GMCR on a bounce,
    I am long X 65 puts, would you roll those down on this bounce?   Thanks.

  162. Opt, I completely agree.  This is the fundamental struggle I have .. overstaying my welcome.  The number of times I’ve gotten burned on the high flyers like X, GMCR is painful so when the inevitable drop occurs, I end up pulling the trigger too early and missing the big ride.  I have to say, I did stick out the big upswing on friday which normally I would have jumped out for a loss but stuck it out for my 20% gain.  My trading has changed drastically since coming to your board.  Thanks for the good words.
    Now, see if CELG will make us happy.

  163.  I was just kidding of course, i just wish I had with a move like that. I think we may see similar moves in things like CREE and EL when their time comes

  164.  Oh, ok, just saw the smiley LOL. Thought it was a typo first…

  165.  X-ALbo, yes, if you sold some earlier at a lower price, then when you buy back it is good to buy lower strikes. The 65′s are too much ITM right now.

  166.  XOM has been slow but treating me OK for a long.  I like that 71-72 gap being filled somehow.  Not sure what confluence of events need to take place but I do know that it has been acting well on weak days  and eventually if the market wants to make any real ground north it will need to move the big dogs.

  167.  Check out the insider selling record of the CEO in CRM, 10,000 shares everyday as long as the eye can see

  168.  ADM looks ok

  169.  Sold a little more LPX ;-) Will buy back on a pullback.

  170.  started buying back the RIMM puts i sold yesterday, will work back to 2/3 up to 72.13 area and see if we get a rollover

  171. Buying OIH puts here with OIH at $130.55. 

  172. Phil had an interesting comment about the $INDU weekly 200MA. 
    Check out the chart.

  173. Congrats on GMCR … I unfortunately didnt particpate.  I am still runnning reduce positions – only 2 long and 2 short … and GMCR wasnt on the list … but – what I do have is paying, AAPL, CELG, STP, ANF and RIMM.
    I am still waiting for you to lead us into a winning EL trade with 0.50 stop … :-) that would be sweet …

  174. Opt- What are your feelings on the ANF puts at this point?

  175.  ANF-Chart still bearish, fine with the 2/3.

  176. AET – Opt, what do you think about for longs?

  177.  AET-I like it, but I think HUM looks better.

  178.  Bought back a little bit of the GMCR sold earlier.

  179.  /OS sold 1/3 STEC.Big sudden move!

  180. Opt, congrats on the GMCR play. I did not follow you in on that one, unfortunately.

  181.  LPX breaking out

  182.  X found some support on the 50, as expected. Will be interesting to see what happens now.

  183.  any way to get to last week’s comments?  someone mentioned using 5dma – and – a trailing stop to cut losses.  I was interested in what the trailing stop was?

  184.  ANF puts still valid play here?  

  185.  srfrog, the 5MA IS a trailing stop.

  186.  Yes, ANF is still valid.

  187. English – how are you positioned in SPG?  I have a ratioed 85/80 spread.  Have not hit my stop but thinking of closing today

  188. Is the market churning here or is it preparing to launch higher?
    Or am I just bored?

  189. LPX – Opt, how are you playing this one?  Options, stock or both?

  190.  LPX-Stock only so far.

  191.  Albo, you are bored.

  192.  And here goes GMCR again.

  193. Out of short NFLX for a loss – this is like standing in front of a freight train.

  194.  I added some ANF, probably just for the day.

  195.  back to a little bit mre than 1/3 on GMCR

  196.  sold a little of the GMCR I added here, some support around 82.70

  197.  Same here

  198.  QCOM acting well, would love to see it trade to 43.75 at the 200 before earnings tomorrow so I can get out at a nice price

  199.  STP strong.

  200.  i know, but it has more work to do before we can make another move in it. We need the market to make new highs and hold before risk gets hot and everyone wants to take a run at the solar sector I believe

  201.  done buying back 1/3 RIMM here, back to 2/3 now

  202. Opt. The stop on EL is $68 right?

  203.  We don’t have a position yet in EL. Just shorted a couple shares yesterday. But yes, $68 is a good stop.

  204.  If you entered a full position yesterday of course. If it closes like this I would probably exit.

  205. Thank you opt.

  206. Opt. I am holding July AAPL 250 calls. I don’t need to sell them ahead of the earnings right?

  207. opt- are you still holding AMZN?  I was thinking of waiting until after earnings to enter.  Thoughts?

  208.  Yes, you do. This is gambling and they will get hurt anyway by IV crush. 

  209.  AMZN-I only have a little, but will sell before earnings.

  210.  BAck to 1/3 on GMCR.

  211.  whoever is holding long that CREE chart long into earnings has balls of steal.  Maybe they beat, but what that has to do with the stock price, i have no idea

  212.  Good day of trading. Very good week so far, let’s keep it going.

  213. Balls of Steel, must be the same person bought X at  70!

  214.  AAPL killed it again.

  215.  That should be good for LT portfolio ;-)

  216.  Why do they keep halting AAPL on earnings? This is very annoying. Would like to see if we open above or below $260.

  217. The ‘beat’ is 50 cents over two quarters.  see if the market actually reads.  They beat huge this Q and guided lower next Q.  I shorted 200 shares at 262.10 just for kicks.  Maybe buy a bottle of wine on the way home :)

  218.  AAPL - After Hours  High: $ 265

  219.  Bought some stock here at $261. Was short some $260′s to protect Leaps, so that will protect those profits in case it shoots higher.

  220. made 2.50 and covered.  oh well it was fun.  I am out of here before I give the ill-gotten profits back :)


    Apple target raised to $350 from $325 at Deutsche Bank
    Deutsche Bank raised its earnings estimates following Apple’s better than expected quarter and upped its target on shares to $350 from $325. The firm maintains a Buy rating on the stock

  222.  STEC!!

  223.  /OS sold 1/3 STEC

  224.  /OS sold 1/3 CELG

  225.  AMZN breaking higher

  226.  Added back a little GMCR

  227.  AMZN is setting itself up for disapointing.

  228. Opt. Is it wise to sell AAPL leaps into thus rally or can I hold them. I have Jan 2011 $240. Thank you. Likewise with CELG.

  229. CELG triggered my real-time stop. I got all out at 2.10 on the May 60 calls. I’ll feel silly if it reverses and heads higher, but I also won’t get blown out to the downside either if it continues lower into the close. That should be the cue for a 20% run higher in the stock, so you can all enjoy that! Not a fun way to start the morning. Thank goodness for STEC!

  230.  Well, it depends what kind of trades they are. I pretty much always have some AAPL and CELG Leaps in my LT portfolio. I just keep them, and sell front-month calls against them every month. Right now on AAPL, I have my Leaps protected with some short May $260′s, and also I have some long stock. I will wait for the 260′s to lose more premium and will then roll them higher. Will also sell the stock soon, as it was just protection against the 260′s getting too much ITM overnight, which did not happen.

    If your positions are for short term, then you need to follow your stops. But I guess, they are LT plays because you bought Leaps, right? 

  231.  been busy buying CREE puts this morning

  232.  CELG is down in sympathy to GILD, which is ridiculous. In fact all big biotechs are dwon today.

  233.  CREE-I was looking at it yesterday, and it is a very good earnings report. Pretty amazing.

  234.  /OB bought back 1/2 of the STEC sold earlier.

  235. STEC announces earnings on 5/11/2010. Last = 14.38

  236.  I don’t understand why RIMM is up today. They are obviously losing the fight to Apple.

  237. Here goes GMCR again. We broke the 100 this time.

  238. Opt. Can I start a new position into GMCR now? Thank you.

  239.  Of course, Nichania, you can start anything, as long as you have good position sizing and good stops. Your guess is as good as mine as to where a stock is going. GMCR has obviously fallen a lot already, so don’t go with a big position, but why not.

  240.  Ooops, just noticed that it dropped another 2% while I was writing this post ;-) You might want to wait for a bounce now, I guess…

  241. Opt – buy back the callers on CELG ? and wait to sell them again .. they are May 65s … – or just leave them alone ?

  242. Opt – I am short the May $250′s against the 2012 $200′s in AAPL in LT.  When would you recommend I roll the Mays?  Would you recommend rolling them higher in May or out to June.

  243.  ANF hanging at the 20

  244.  Partha, yes, that’s what I just did. Will wait for a bounce to sell some lower strikes.

  245.  Stoptrvl, what ratio do you have?

  246. NFLX reports after close.  Situation similar to CREE.  Selling $90 calls naked.   Might short some stock as well.  Timing sucks, should have done it earlier this morning.

  247.  Sold a little LPX.

  248.  Bought back the remaining of STEC sold earlier.

  249.  WSM flying

  250.  Bougth some GILD calls for a quick trade. Stupid.

  251. Opt – I went 1/1 ratio in to earnings so my overall delta is low however I am not too dissapointed in the way it performed today.  I have only lost about half what I made on long calls in P/L today.

  252. Sfrog, I didn’t see your question yesterday. Had another obligation and wasn’t online. I was talking about the real-time stop in addition to the 5MA last week. I follow the 5MA strategy for closing prices exactly as we all do on the board. In addition (because I’m pleasantly neurotic about risk) I use a real-time stop that if the price crosses at any point in the trading day I have an order set to liquidate the position. I usually set it slightly below the low of 2 days ago and move it up accordingly each day. It stops me from having a position nearly completely wiped out in a big move. But it’s not perfect for a couple of important reasons:
    1) You sell at the market because the stop order is by definition a market order. So you pay the spread. This is why I don’t trade many options that aren’t penny-priced. CELG today was an exception and I paid a price for that.
    2) You’re susceptible to gaps and spikes that wouldn’t otherwise stop you out. It’s very possible you sell at the bottom before something reverses and goes higher. Market makers love to gun for stops like these.
    3) It’s completely possible you get stopped out and the stock goes higher and closes with a decent candle. Because you don’t wait you don’t have the advantage of seeing the close or the new candle. If CELG reverses and heads higher into the close I will have sold my entire position for a loss while those who only trade the close will still be alive in the position, which may turn out to be profitable.

  253.  ok, stop, first, why would you do that? especially into earnings, this is not a good strategy, as you probably noticed from the way it acted, when your short calls went ITM. Even if you "only" lost 1/2 of what you made, you could have built a spread with exactly the same delta/risk, that would have paid better with the stock going your way.

    I was only 2/3 short the $260′s, and still wish I had done better ;-)  

    Anyway, that’s past. I would not touch it right now, no rush in doing anything after holding the trade through earnings anyway. Keep the protection for now, until it calms down a bit and IV drops a little bit more, maybe a day or two more Then, you can roll to whatever is a little bit OTM.

  254. X looking pretty weak again

  255.  X looking bad

  256.  Some people are looking at the same charts here…

  257. Anyone listen to the GILD conference call? We should try to find out how much the new healthcare law was actually responsible for their lowered guidance. If it turns out it was a smokescreen for some company-specific issue, the rest of the big biotechs that are being punished today would be ripe for upside earnings plays as they report, no?

  258.  Scribe, yes, they lowered guidance because of the new regulations (I did not listen to the CC). But they lowered from $7.7B to $7.5B! That does not warrant a 10% drop, when business is just great and they beat earnings.

  259. Opt  – PharmBoy’s comments on CELG ..
    CELG/Stock – don’t know why it is down.  CELG is way overbought and extended in my view.  I like them and think that they have a bit of promise, but compared to GILD who has a great pipeline and P/E is moving in line with big Pharma, I  like GILD long term.

  260.  Now RIMM makes a lot more sense.

  261.  Scribe!  So you are the one who had made that comment :)  Thanks for the reply…  I too took a position in CELG and not happy w/ the action today… but I’m still holding it since as of now I am only using the 5dma as a stop.  Thanks for the detailed explanation!

  262.  Thanks, Partha. I like both companies, and I am not sure I agree that GILD has a better pipeline or that CELG is overbought. But Pharmboy is the expert, so we should listen to him…

  263. I am thinking of doing a LT on GILD too – thats what I wanted to ask …. any opinions on how to structure that ?  2012  40 calls ?

  264. Or is it better to do 2011 40s … ?

  265.  Sure, but I would wait for the dust to settle. You know how public perception is, and they want to make a big issue out of this.

    Remeber, that the CEO of CELG said that they would not be affected. All the issues with medicaid rebates for GILD are pretty much a non-issue for CELG, as they have very little exposure.

    A lot of HIV patients have medicaid, this is not the case with CELG oncology patients.

  266. Sfrog, no problem. Nothing to be unhappy about in CELG action today to my mind. Stocks go up and they go down. If GILD had come out and said healthcare law will bolster their business CELG would have jumped big. It cuts both ways. Like Opt says, all we can control is where we buy and where we sell. No use in being happy or unhappy about anything else unless we failed to use discipline and follow our system. My system has a sissy stop in place and it worked today (so far, at least). I’m happy to have followed my system. That I lost money is just part of the game, no happiness or unhappiness involved. Win some, lose some. Just gotta keep the winners big by letting them run and the losers small by cutting losses. It’s when I don’t follow my system that I get unhappy.

  267.  Great words, Scribe.

  268.  Doubled down on my CELG, let’s see.

  269. Thanks.  Will wait till GILD has stabilized – and take a small position – just write a few may 40s for now …

  270.  This is so ridiculous! All the points fromt he heathcare reform that would have affected CELG did NOT pass. Especially the "dual eligible" provision. And CELG still lowered its guidance by $100million, thinking it would pass. CELG will NOT be affected by Medicaid by more than 3%-5% on sales, and guidance was probably lowered too much in fact.

  271. Look at GENZ – it was killed a couple weeks ago .. due to some news – that was actually stale news.  It just jumped as the 5d crossed the 20d upward.

  272. Opt – I guess my thinking behind going 1/1 was because I only recently started the position and since I felt like I was already chasing I was more concerned about losses than gains.  So for a long term position what do you generally do with them before earnings?

  273.  Sold 1/2 of CELG added earlier.

  274.  Stoptrvl, I usually try to do something with 1/3 of the Leaps covered. Depends on how much the stock has run, etc.

  275. My cumulative NYSE TICK indicator is just about to cross up over the 0 line.  the last time it tried at 10:25, it just touched and bounced down and we had a big push down.  it it gets above, I start lightening up on puts.

  276.  GMCR bounced hard.

  277.  I joined you on CELG here…57.50 stp for sizing, which is the trend line up from the bottom

  278. So help me – I doubled down on CELG too … and took at position in GLD at 40.5 – with $1 stop … will reduce by half by EOD ..

  279. I’m there too so see what happens.  RIMM acting weak too.

  280. WFR put I bought yesterday acting nice.  hopefully cover some STP losses.

  281. woohooo!!! go gold and silver!!

  282. Blake, you said something about seeing how gold acts on Wednsday.  doing pretty good today.  what’s your thoughts going forward?

  283. Blake – please call out your exits on GLD .. I am in on 1/2 position of GLD –

  284. jeddah-  I like it!  I want to see 1200 for starters, not sure about a new high yet.  Momentum has shifted so it should go up a couple days in a row.  probably end the day around 1155-1156 if i was a betting man, but obviously nobody can see the future.  What is troubling is that the miners are not performing as well as I would like to see so far today, we’ll see how they close.  I don’t really know how do advise you on opening a position if you are interested.  I don’t really trend trade with gold, I use more support and resistance, so usually I am buying when it looks like it is falling off a cliff.  Yesterday I told SeanC that he could use 1130 as a stop, I don’t really have a better one yet.

  285. partha- did you get in yesterday?

  286.  CELG not working. Bought half so far, not sure if i want it to go up or down at this point.  Chart is a text book head and shoulders.  Maybe a bounce off the 57.50 – 58 area back to 60 in a couple of days, then on to 54 after earnings is my guess.

  287.  Yes, I don;t like that chart if it closes below the 100, and will seriously reduce.

  288.  Sold teh other 1/2 of CELG bought earlier.

  289. Opt, since I’m only working w/ full positions in and out (due to the small value of my portfolio)… should I still be in CELG?

  290.  oh… just saw your post – I assume (OUT) ;)

  291. Blake, thanks.  I got into GLD yesterday and bought more this morning.  chart looked really pretty on my 30 and 180 min charts with 5MA indicators.  see what happens as it’s hitting 20MA resistance.
    Bailed on CELG.  just keeps getting uglier.

  292.  sfrog, I still have 2/3 of the original position in CELG. Just sold the doubled down. 1/2 higher, 1/2 lower…Let’s see the close.

  293.  Not a bad looking candle


  294.  I sidestepped the CELG fiasco but found myself in the SPG fiasco. i am convinced it does not matter what you buy or sell these days, things that go down bounce back up and things that go up get drilled back down, resulting in a VIX in the 16′s and a bunch of computers collecting exchange rebates as a business model. 

  295.  Added some CELG again, with stop at LOD

  296. english, I could not agree with you more.  This is a day trading environment.

  297.  Fiasco is a big word ;-) It is down 3.5% and we sold 1/3 at $60.

  298.  If we had been long GMCR 2 days ago, that would have been a fiasco.

  299.  CELG is just following every GILD’s move.

  300.  I now have 2/3 GMCR

  301.  Solid moves today is in homebuilders and selected REIT’s…VNO, SPG & KIM, which seems to find support at their 20′s or 50′s.

  302. FWLT chart looks good

  303. Blake – yes – yesterday.
    I had to leave for a while – and I just caught up on comments and looked at CELG – guess I avoided some trading costs :-)

  304. Financials now challengin Mon high – they are below yesterday low … (XLF)

  305.  And LPX keeps going ;-) Been trying to add but not many pullbacks. Very small position now.

  306. Very interesting… AMGN has earnings tonight… could set up very nicely for some upside if they don’t follow GILD’s path. Anyone here think they are affected the same way as GILD by the healthcare law?

  307.  PEP earnings tomorrow before the open

  308. RIMM acting good now.

  309. Blake: I didn’t get around to buy GLD, GDX and SLW as you suggested yesterday.  Is it still OK to buy?

  310.  Thanks for the reminder, English. Will have to close this before EOD.

  311. Opt, if I were to want to play AMGN in a way that I would participate well if they go up on earnings but limit my losses if they fall apart what would you suggest as a way to structure the trade. I would look for them to go to about 60 on good earnings. I need you (or someone else here) to talk me out of going long my old friend the 57.5/60 May vertical!

  312.  sold 1/3 RIMM puts back out

  313. GMCR, Opt, what’s your stop?  I’m thinking 86.

  314. SeanC-  yes, but you have to keep a stop at 1130 for now, so you will have to play a smaller position than monday or tuesday

  315.  Scribe, I don’t like the premiums on AMGN. If you absolutely want to play it, buy some stock and sell a covered call.

  316.  GMCR-For position sizing I am keeping the same stop $2.15. To get out, it is the 5MA.

  317. ugly bar shaping up in xlf and kbe

  318. Blake: thanks; bought a small postion in GLD May 110 calls.

  319.  would like to see GMCR trade back to 89 to reload some puts at a good price

  320. Covered call offers very little upside with lots of downside and small premium erosion potential, no? I’m get similar delta with 2x the vertical and limit my downside risk at the same time.
    I’m buying 1/2 of my planned position in the AMGN 57.5/60 May vertical.

  321. When I say covered call, I mean ratioed.

  322.  Well, you like verticals, so you should go for it, no matter what LOL.

    You should at least take a look at other plays for earnings. IC’s for example offer a much better risk/reward.

  323. IC? What be that? Kind of calendar?

  324. not a strong finish for gold.  probably another day or 2 in this range before we get a strong move, but i won’t be selling anything

  325.  Iron Condor.

  326. Oh, I knew that. :)

  327. Bought second 1/2 AMGN vertical.

  328. gold just sold off with the market and is coming back a bit.  It looks good, but do understand it will go down if the markets come off.  That’s for those that are new to it.

  329.  It is pretty much the same graph as your evrtical, where you have a maximum defined risk (between the strikes in that case), but the risk/reward is much better.

  330.  /OS we will sell 1/3 CELG before close, close the GILD’s daytrade, and close the PEP puts.

  331.  trying to push that ANF back over the 4WA to keep the party going

  332. I’ve played a little with ICs in earnings before. I typically found that the graph didn’t accurately reflect the behavior of the options after earnings. I would always seem to end up breakeven or only slightly up after the actual event and the profit predicted by the graph never seemed to materialize even when everything went exactly to plan. That’s why I changed to verticals. It seems making money without picking a direction is for the most part impossible around earnings unless you sell naked straddles/strangles, which is unadvisable (thought I’ve done it profitably before) for obvious reasons.

  333. /OS sold 1/3 GMCR. keeping 1/3 .I don’t like this candle and don’t feel like giving back some of the profits from yesterday. 

  334. Well, for an IC, it depends how far you are from expiration. Chart is very accurate close to expiration. Farther out you have to figure-out what the IV crush will be. And you can play an IC AND pick direction, just pick the strikes where you want them, like you are doing on a vertical.

  335.  good close on CELG, managed to make a little on that last trade.

  336.  QCOM getting hammered, maybe bearish for RIMM, we will have to see what Skynet thinks tomorrow. 

  337. NFLX nice!   Lets find every overextended stock and short the earnings.  It’s like taking candy from 800 lb gorilla

  338. Yuck. AMGN says same thing as GILD… health reform will hurt their bottom line. Que malo!

  339.  shorted a little NFLX. i want to make sure i am short a little of everything in the S&P 500

  340. English and after you get that done there is always Russell 2000 to look forward to :)

  341.  LOL…LOL….LOL

  342. yes, the NFLX pump from 70 to 87 was pretty shameless. May be a good time to get in after earnings with less risk.

  343.  offering some more NFLX at 90, we will see how many shorts panic to trade spots with me

  344. Ha! Someone just fired off a market buy order and got filled $1 above the market in AMGN. Ouch… time to call your broker if you’re that person.

  345. NFLX made thirty some million dollars and has a market cap of forty five hundred million dollars…i know I have seen this before, my memory is fuzzy

  346. It’s what Microsoft looked like in the 70′s right, English?  :)

  347.  right, MSFT rented movies ;)
    I was thinking it looked more like BBI in May of 2002.  Someone thinks it is the next MSFT though and just traded there paycheck for the chance that it is, with a few others of course following

  348. Note to self: put NFLX bonds on watchlist for 2018…

  349.  My new bear screener turned up microchip – MCHP.  Looks like it meets the 5dma strategy – and is that an evening star I see?  Opt, any opinion on this one?  I might buy the May $30 puts…

  350.  Linear Technology – LLTC, looks like another possibility for puts…  (shooting star, then 2 hammers, then bearish engulfing to go below the 5dma)?  opt is this the correct analysis?

  351.  Chipotle Mexican Grill plans to open 120-130 restaurants in 2010


    Chipotle Mexican Grill upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Jefferies
    Jefferies upgraded Chipotle Mexican Grill two notches to Buy following the company’s better than expected results and raised its target for shares to $150 from $110.


    Green Mountain upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust
    Target $105

  354.  We were right to be worried about that candle yesterday on GMCR.


    Netflix target raised to $110 from $70 at JP Morgan
    JP Morgan raised its target for Netflix shares following the company’s Q1 results and maintains an Overweight rating on the stock

  356. NFLX is a really tempting short!  that valuation is just unbeleivable!

  357.  NFLX-Be patient

  358. NFLX is in the late stages of pump and dump.  game of musical chairs.  Cramer recommends it.  Classic musical chairs.  Only we don’t know when the music will stop.

  359. NFLX- I will wait till Optrader wants to short it!  I tend to get burned on stock trading

  360. I am short 90 calls and 80 puts, but ratio is 4:1.  Will close the puts, put a stop loss on half the calls and ride out the rest.  Left the office yesterday with stock at 83.  I WAS in a good mood.

  361.  Trying to short high flyers is one of the most dangerous games, and very rarely profitable. Valuations do not matter, and we should not try to catch a top. Especially on a stock with low float.

    There are some companies that are doing very well right now, because they are providing products that customers want and like. They have strong growth, and valuation will only matter when the chart start to turn and/or they have some bad news regarding fundies.

    Apple is one of those companies, CMG is another one, and NFLX is another one. They kept going up after earnings when others have dropped on good results.

    GMCR is another one. We were lucky to catch a break on a detoriating chart, but it is the same kind of high-growth consumer company that is presently providing a product/service that people love.

  362.  Covered some GMCR. Just keeping a couple just in case.

  363. Opt – Don’t forget AMZN

  364.  RIMM on the other side, has a slowly dying product LOL.

  365.  Albo, I almost put AMZN in the list, but I did not because of the Kindle/ipad situation. But you are 100% right, and that is what happened at the beginning of the year. Amazon is providing a service that people just love and use every day. They have made our life so much easier. And that’s why it has kept flying with insane valuations.

    But Amazon is such a big company now that growth will be limited compared for example to a CMG…I think there will be a very good opportunity to short AMZN, but we need to wait for the chart. Chart always win.

  366. gold probably gong to drop to 1120 by tomorrow, ugly action.  Need to see if it sets up a bear flag out of this drop

  367.  I see people around me that are still switching to NFLX. So I can’t imagine what is happening in the rest of the country, where all video stores are slowly dying. And when you see their app for the Ipad…

    I think the only ones that will really be able to compete with them are Apple, if they start offering a subscription plan to Itunes, and improve the Apple TV. 

  368. good old short squeeze.  sky is the limit

  369.  Opt, any opinion on the 2 trade I mentioned above (MCHP and LLTC puts)?

  370. Maybe AAPL buys BBI and Scribe lives happily ever after with his bonds.

  371. GMCR flying now. Glad we booked those.

  372.  srfrog, sorry I missed those earlier. Both charts look fine for puts (very similar). Options are not very good though, especially on MCHP where you would have to short the stock.

  373.  NOK taking a big hit on their earnings.

  374.  Should have bought some CMG in the LT portfolio.

  375.  JCG strong.

  376.  LPX is just insane. I managed to buy back a tiny bit this morning, but was hoping for more, and then it just bounced like crazy. Might even turn green here.

  377. LOL Albo! It would be more like AAPL assuming BBI’s massive debt and getting the company for free! Headline would look something like: "Blockbuster Bought by Apple for $0.99 on iTunes Store: Bondholders Rejoice!"
    Happily ever after will be the day when BBI completes a debt exchange or recapitalization or maybe even a bankruptcy and I get paid off for the bonds at a much higher price than I paid. Until then, I’ll kick it with my 40% a year "wait and see" fee!  ;)

  378.  NFLX close to testing $100…

  379. Boooooo AMGN! I guess it’s ok as long as no one tells STEC the market is down today. Got out of AMGN trade for a 20% loss.

  380. English, what are you doing on NFLX?  Misery loves company

  381.  Hi Opt – pardon my newbie-ism… but I am wondering why the options are "not good" for those 2?

  382. Scribe – Hope so !

  383. Sold half OIH puts here at just uder 129.  Buying CME puts.

  384. Hi Flyguy.  Good to hear from you.
    Opt – I’m in PCLN puts with a small profit.  Afraid it’s one of those high fliers you were talking about.
    Been like pulling teeth to make money on the stock on the short side.   What  do you think of PCLN

  385. OOPS !    Make that a small loss on PCLN.

  386. Blake, are you closing Gold then?

  387.  Yes, STEC has been very good. 

  388. Whoever was in UNG here … Nat Gas flying …

  389.  sfrog, I mean that the options are not liquid at all. Trading costs are very high on those. ON MCHP for example, when you asked me, no options had traded. Now there is a little volume. If you go with very small size, you should be ok as spread is not too bad.

  390. NFLX- watching

  391.  PCLN-Sorry, but I have no opinion technically on that chart here right now. It is in a flag. Looked good for puts last week, but there is some strong support at $243. The 50MA is also getting to that level, so maybe if it breaks below.

  392.  I added a very little STEC here. Would like to get back to 2/3 if we stay above that flag.

  393.  GLUU doing its thing.

  394. Sean- no, just watching to see if action looks like reversal or intraday bear flag on the hourly chart.  Looking like a nice reversal so far so we may still be good

  395. On a flight to LAX and they have WiFi.  First time I was ever able to connect.  I can get on TOS but not ETrade.

  396.  back to 1/3 GMCR short here

  397. Insights or thoughts on AMZN earnings tonight anyone? Tempted to do something long (crazy, right?) because apparently the crap flies higher no matter what in this market (good companies, just crap valuations).

  398.  Nice, Stoptrvl!

  399.  I followed you on GMCR, English. Added a little bit, not back to 1/3 though, and probably only for the day. Let’s see.

  400. I thought it was interesting.  First time I have used on a plane.  I am not sure I would trust this first time though.  I’ll update on how it goes.

  401.  yah, I figured this is it or I will just bail on the close on all of it

  402. Sold some GLUU.

  403.  Bought stock in AEO & KIM.

  404. Miners leading gold again, good sign

  405.  STEC!

  406.  someone fill me in on NFLX- can’t you stream movies from CMCSA, HULU, AAPL, BBI, DISH, DTV, and every off shore free download site.  I have an IPAD and I would use Itunes, no? 

  407. lol, English – the miraculous thing NFLX does is somehow getting the US Postal Service to move their stuff at an amazing velocity.

  408. English, the NFLX download app is very intuitive and streamlined. The cable and satellite companies charge on a pay-per-download basis. On top of that, if you have a Roku box or PS3/Wii/Xbox, you can log in to your NFLX account and stream HD quality movies and serials on that box – we have a Roku box in our vacation home and works very well on the same NFLX subscription.

  409. lots of people paniced out of gold this morning and now have to buy back in…going to really get things going over the next week, me thinks

  410. Opt- any thoughts on AMZN?  They look a little over inflated at 148.

  411. So, if I get a ROKU box, i will understand why a NFLX movie is better viewing than all the other forms.  Is the picture better? I still don’t get what the difference is.  I had NFLX a while ago for mail order, but dumped it as soon as I got AAPl tv, because mailing movies around seemed silly.  I am very happy renting a movie from Itunes.  AAPL stock price would triple if people new you could rent movies from them I guess

  412. English, I think NFLX is very good value for the money. We have a $22 per month subscription (includes Blu-ray). I get 3 movies at a time, can and do download on PS3 at my home, can and do download on Roku at my second home. The Roku box is great for my children since we have the cheapest possible cable at the second home but they can watch all the kids shows. I usually don’t watch movies on vacation ;-)   I don’t think you can beat the value of the entire package.
    Of course, the stock valuation is another matter and I agree with you on that.

  413. Ditto w/ AMZN on teh movie rentals…

  414.  AMZN rents them too?

  415.  English, the main advantage with Netflix is the low monthly subscription that gives you unlimited access to movies, not only via mail, but also on your computer, ipad, roku, etc…

    Really, a movie about beastiality? Second movie on the list. Ha Ha Ha!

  417. Partha, I’m in UNG. But it will need to move above 7.6 for me to be meaningfully happy.

  418.  By the way, yesterday afternoon I had to do some stuff around the house, lots of organizing. I was just watching a show on the ipad, and carrying it all around the house with me, putting it on a desk or shelf right by me while doing something else.

    This is just changing everything, not having to be stuck to your sofa while watching something on TV. Very cool.

  419.  I get that, but someone is a loser in that model.   How can you translate a $10 a month subscription if i watch 50 movies into a profit, someone is losing.  That is often why subscription services always lose.  They are great to get subscribers but then you have to pull the rug out from under them at some point.  I remember people said the same thing of AOL once. I agree, none of this really matters because it is trading where it is trading, just trying to figure out the logic of why suddenly movie rental is the future. 

  420. Blake. I am thinking of getting into GLD calls. What do you think?

  421.  JCG is flying. I only have a very little left, but might add later.

  422.  English, the fact is that a lot of people pay $15 a month and only watch a couple movies. So that balances with the number of people who watch a ton of movies. They have been doing that for years now, and are very profitable. They are also getting extremelly low prices from the studios, the way Blockbuster used to.

  423. nichania-  I like it still, but just make sure it doesn’t end up giving you too many positions.

  424.  Bought a little ABX & COST.

  425. its tough out there, lots of whipsaw.  i’m long RAX, went from down 4.5% to almost flat.  SPG is making me green.  The REITs are trying to make my do not trade list.  Tried to short some SMH and PCX, small bounces turn into big ones.  Me thinks the algo boys are working overtime.

  426. MYL – Anyone know much about this one?  looks to be sitting on 5MA.

  427. I’m the guy that subsidizes all you  50 movie a month guys on Netflix.  We only pay 8 or 9 bucks a month for one movie at a time but the movie usually sits here for two or three weeks.  Do stream occasionally on PS3 or computer.

  428.  CELG printing an interesting hammer.

  429.  AAPL on a run

  430.  Parker, I do the same…

  431.  LPX breaking $12

  432.  And STEC flying :-)

  433.  Opt --in reference to AAPL,  probably a poignant example of your comment this morning of  "trying to short high flyers" as AAPL started the day with a quick drop.  I did not, but I imagined going short…now the squeeze play from the quants!!

  434.  The signal was to go long at yesterday’s high.

  435. Opt – Have you been watching MVIS as it’s been hugging the 200 MA?

  436.  I think there are 499 other companies I would rather short than AAPL in the S&P. For now that is. Everything is going great for them, and the valuation is very reasonable. Just shorting a company because the stock has been strong rarely works.

  437.  MVIS-yes, it is in my watchlist, just stuck there.

  438.  And yes, the break of yesterday’s high on AAPL was the perfect signal. 

  439.  Ok, I just sold the STEC I bought earlier. Back to 1/3. GREAT move!

  440.  Amazing how SPX has been finding support on the 20MA this week.

  441. Opt – CELG.  I didnt sell last even at close I with half my day trade position – and I stuck it through today – without dumping it … is it safe to hold for another day – or is CELG too unpredictable. I dont want to make the same mistake twice …

  442.  yah, i just sold my 2nd 1/3 in STEC. Unfortunately I did not buy I wanted at 14.19 yesterday, actually ended up with 1/2 of what I wanted, thought I had a little more time I guess.  Super feelbad when that happens, never happens the other way

  443. Sorry – garbled words … " I didnt sell the last half of my daytrade from yesterday at close" is the correct interpretation :-)

  444.  Partha, are you talking about LT or ST?

  445. ST CELG …

  446.  Oh, your daytrade. I think I would sell it here. Just be happy about the bounce.

  447.  It’s right where it got stuck yesterday, at the 100

  448. LT CELG – I sold some May 60 puts on CELG – just a few …

  449. Opt, I need a short for balance. Is GMCR at this level a good one or would you recommend something else?

  450. Thanks – closed those out today

  451.  Added a little bit of RIMM, probably just for the day because we already have a big position.

  452.  emcgimley, I like RIMM better.

  453.  Sold a little bit of JCG, will buy back by close.

  454.  BIG move in WFMI today. 

  455.  Conpletely out of JCG, will buy back. What a market!

  456. opt – what about ANF?

  457.  Vey tempted to do a bearish play on AMZN’s earnings. But I won’t.

  458.  back to 1/3 RIMM here on that gap fill

  459.  ANF-I am fine with keeping it a little bit more. As long as we get those big moves on our calls, I don’t mind to give back a little on the puts ;-)

  460.  /OB buying back 1/3 of STEC and 1/3 JCG before close.

  461. STEC announces earnings on 5/6/2010. Last = 15.23

  462.  Here goes AMZN

  463.  Had to short a little at $145. 

  464.  And a little bit more at $144..

  465.  Nice move on AMZN

  466. TASR breaking up …

  467. Opt  – I followed an earnings play that Phil did on AMZN – Short 5 May 150s – against long 4 July 160s .. lets seee how it works out tomorrow …  check out TASR …

  468.  Suntech upgraded to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer

  469. Morning …

  470. target raised to $175 from $155 at Deutsche Bank
    Deutshe Bank raised its estimates and price target for and remains a buyer of the stock following the company’s Q1 results.

  471.  Morning, Partha. Did you make a play on TASR? Looks like it is back to $5.35.

  472. I didnt Opt – I have a LT – play – very small buy/write – that is basically guaranteed to payout 40% return if it holds $5 in Jan.  (thats  a Phil play) – thats the only one.  So – it stay on my radar … thats all.  I have found that doign LT and doing swing are completely different animals – I dont feel comfortable doing swing trades completely on my own yet …

  473. AMZN – nothing dents this stock … someday it will fall … but I guess we have other places to make our money till then …

  474.  I wil be out all day today, see you all on Monday, have a god weekend!

  475.  good weekend!

  476. STEC ;-)

  477. At the risk of sounding like a broken record… STEC!
    Or are we becoming immune to the daily 4% moves higher?

  478. Had to steal my thunder before leaving for the weekend Blake? Ha! Have a good one, and nice trading lately!

  479. Oh, nevermind… it was Snow… sorry Blake. Still, nice trading.

  480.  Thanks Scribe, but actually only up 0.5R this week, so not great trading!

  481. My good friend APWR doing nicely today, too.

  482.  /OS sold 1/3 STEC calls

  483. and LPX

  484.  STEC-Scribe, I am not geting immune to the 4% move (more than 5% now). At all. Enjoying each 1s tarting to add-up to some very nice profits.% of it. This trade is starting to add-up to some very nice profits. There is some resistance here at $16, that’s why I sold 1/3.

  485.  LPX is just a machine LOL.

  486.  Have a great weekend, Blake! Great trading, indeed.

  487. Opt. I want to buy AAPL leaps. Is now a good time or shud I wait for a pullback? Thanks.

  488.  oh yeah, keeping gold and silver over the weekend.  now I am really leaving

  489. GLUU!

  490. You followed Rule #1, Blake, so that’s not too bad in my book. At least you avoided AMGN! Though I made AMGN losses back this morning with a COF May 46/Sept 47 diagonal.
    Opt, you should take some satisfaction in having broken me of going into earnings using verticals. I made money on the diagonal even though the stock traded against me. I’ll likely never use a vertical into earnings again.

  491.  GLUU

  492.  Nichania, just buy a little, and more on a pullback.

  493.  GLUU-I sold some of the stock bought around $1. Keeping more than 1/3. I wonder how many times we can do this, and book 25%-30% :-)

  494.  Scribe-Verticals: you made my day LOL.

  495. Opt, where did you see the resistance on STEC at $16 and at what price are you thinking of buying back?

  496.  STEC-Look at the chart on Februay 3rd and what happened after. Should not be a very strong resistance though. I don’t know when I will add back, will just follow the movements intraday. Still have 1/3.

  497. Thoughts on GMCR?

  498.  There is some decent volume on that GLUU’s move.

  499.  CELG looking much better as well, with this candle yesterday.

  500.  GMCR-Well, we have approximately 1/3 left here. I think it is good, don’t want to be too overexposed so we don;t risk our nice profits on it, but ok to stay in it as the chart is still bearish. 

  501.  JCG breaking higher.

  502.  I shorted a little more AMZN on this bounce. Will turn this position into a swing if the chart turns bearish.

  503.  was there some news there for the sudden pop? I am in my bat cave

  504. Opt. For AAPL leaps ATM or OTM?

  505. Homes sales surge 26.9%  in March

  506.  Some shorts must be hurting real bad….

  507.  ATM

  508.  SPX back to resistance. That was a perfect test of the 20 on that pullback.


  509. Blake, stay out next week too.  You left we are running.

  510. This market does 2 things and 2 things only:
    1.) It opens on time.
    2.) It goes up.

  511. if we break 1150 we will see 1170 within a day or two.

  512.  I bought a little bit of AAPL calls. I know it is extended here, but it is just for fun, and to make sure I keep an eye on it, to buy more on pullbacks.

  513.  Also added a little bit of JCG. 

  514.  And bought back a little bit of STEC. Not 2/3 yet.

  515.  haha, lapper, just checked back in, looking good!  I call 1200 next week!  ok, got to go, actually ring shopping for my girlfriend, taking the big step soon.  Seriously leaving now, see you all over the weekend or monday

  516.  Congrats, Blake. You should go with a gold ring.

  517.  Opt, what stop are you using on AMZN, 151?  I started with the 150-140 vertical

  518.  AMZN-To be honest, I have not decided on a stop yet. I have just been shorting some stock, little by little. I should look into it though, as if the chart is confirmed I will switch those to puts. Yes, something around $4-$5 seems right.

  519. Gold is flying …

  520.  Added some AAPL calls and started buying some AMZN puts.

  521. Opt – your timing on AMZN was impeccable

  522. GLUU – something is us – volume is up and its climbing steadily – not the usual 5 min spike …

  523.  Thanks, Partha, but when we get good timing it is mostly luck (the 15 min helped here too). I have had the worst timing too many times LOL. Staying disciplined and patient is what matters though. Glad we went through the annoying times of the last month or two without damage and staying patient, and that it has been paying off very nicely lately.

  524.  GLUU-I agree, this is a huge candle, even for GLUU ;-) Big test coming in the $1.50 area. If we clear that, it should be a lot of fun.

  525.  Here goes AMZN :-) What a day…

  526.  Just made the calculation and I do have a 1/2 with $5 stop. Will reduce it to $4 on a bounce.

  527.  I need to switch the short stock to puts though while keeping same delta. English, why did you go witht he vertical? $140 seems very close.

  528. Opt – I actualy bought 1/4 when  you said you were shorting and completed at PP.  That coupled with Phils AMZN earnings play and the NFLX – so far has made it a bit sweet.  Just because its AMZN and NFLX :-) – I know we shouldnt take it personally – but its nice to make some money on those two in particular …

  529.  Someone tells STEC and LPX that the market has turned red.

  530.  Well done, Partha!!!

  531.  I will adjust it if need be, to think anything will collapse in this market faster than volatility is a killer.  i give up some gamma, no big deal, it is acting very well thus far, as I shorted at just over 147. i can ratio it if need be.  If we start playing the monday bounce and back down and the bounce and this thing whips around in a $10 range, the straight puts will just be a loser alla CME

  532.  LPX and STEC – I was just thinking that.  I want STEC lower now
    LPX I never got a handle on because it would never dip or I was not aggressive enough, or too aggressive selling the spikes

  533.  You went ratioed or 1/1?

  534.  the uglier candle AMZN puts up the bigger the trap it will set. You have to believe this will test that 151 area next week after enough people try shorting it.  The weekly is 139.50 area, so it may touch that and then trade 151 in like 6 hours, as that has been the market pattern regardless of the company and what they do, make money or not.  

  535.  STEC-on one side I want it lower, on the other I am fine with it going up more…I bought back a little earlier as posted, between 1/3 and 2/3 now, so a break of $16 would be nice as well.

    LPX-I am with you. Wish I ahd more, never got to 1/2 position. But it has been up so much that it was still nice. Difficult to keep big positions when things move like this.

  536.  1 to 1 right now

  537.  I only have about 2/3 of my AMZN so far as it fell within seconds of me entering. i will wait for a bounce to add more, otherwise i am at about a $8 stop here. i am fine waiting for Monday if need be, clear the weekend bullish articles about how AMZN delivering toilet paper via subscription service tax free and covering postage is the next big thing, combined with quotes from people saying they love it and will never walk down the street or pay taxes for toilet paper agin.

  538.  STEC-Here we go, $16!

  539.  lol

  540.  I am in STEC stock, how about you?

  541.  STEC-I have mostly stock as well, except from some $14′s that are looking very good. But most of the trading every day has been in stock

  542.  yah, I am jealous of the gamma but the options are pricey.

  543. english – they will set the trap at the 20d – if this hits the 20d – we take our money and run :-)

  544. Rotation – all Biotechs and Healthcare are up today …

  545. Hilarious! COF iVol crushed a whole (measly) 5% after earnings because of the financial overhaul bill.

  546. english: are you in MON?  I bought the call at the big green candle on Tuesday but it’s downhill from then -:(

  547.  yah, MON is a pig. i have 1/3 left as the delta got crushed quickly

  548. you still keeping it, english?

  549.  I have the 70 calls, which are pretty worthless right now. i bought 65′s the other day and it bounced then got rejected right back down, so i sold those and have 1/3 delta with the 70′s.  If it breaks it’s low i will bail on those, otherwise i will wait to see if it turns and maybe buy some 65′s again.  This thing can turn and run $10 in a heartbeat, so i am hanging out with the 70′s in case it does.  I would commit fresh capital here until it gets over the 5 day and hold at least

  550.  maybe they should come out with a subscription service for seeds, that would really get it moving

  551. UNG getting interesting : blue skies after 7.65

  552. Very funny english. 

  553. I have 65′s and may be will hang on to it a bit longer

  554. arindamC – I am playing it through DVN and HGT ….  Lets hope you are right and nat gas gets back to over $5 -

  555. Anyone else in HUM … I followed someone the other day – and its now getting back to scratch …

  556. english: MON moving up finally - perhaps they are considering your subscription idea?

  557.  HUM looks good here, i like the weekly candle as well

  558. GLUU, STEC, & S.   This is fun ! ! !

  559.  Here goes RIMM. This is turning into the best day of the year so far…

  560. HUM earnings 4/26

  561.  Come on, let’s break $70, and I get double-margarita.

  562. back in the OIH puts – with OIH at ~134.75.  June 130′s. 

  563. Opt, what do you think of ERIC as a long? As we recover, it could be a good infrastructure play.

  564.  I have not followed ERIC in a while. I think it will be difficult for them to compete with the handsets, but for infrastructure yes I agree.

  565. LPX!!!

  566.  I bought another 1569 75 puts in RIMM at 5.90, going for broke

  567. MEE … breaking up …

  568. OPT: LPX is not officially on the list, right? 

  569. QCOM on sale … hitting bottom ?

  570.  No, LPX is a bonus play. The best bonus offered here so far.

  571. Opt, is it too late to get into LPX?

  572.  I never got to get to 1/2 position on LPX, that’s why I never put it in the list, but I posted the trade here still. That was like 30% ago.

  573.  I don’t know if it is too late, it feels like it is never too late with this one. But this chart is really insane at this point. Maybe buy a small position and add on a pullback (if you are lucky to get one).

  574.  LPX xhart is nowhere near as insane as NFLX. When LPX reaches 65, then maybe it is NFLX or El or CREE camp.  Until then it is just getting it’s mojo back

  575. VNO, SLG, SPG – all painting a doji with very long shadows on both sides …

  576. Opt. What do you think of AAPL & AMZN? Are you considering opening positions in them today.

  577.  AMZN-I am already in it. See my post earlier. 

    AAPL-I am almost done buying, not 1/2 yet.

  578. english – BIDU earnings coming up on 28th.  Thoughts on BIDU … ?  Its forward PE using optimistic guidance is 42 – higher than any other tech stock including AMZN …

  579. Talk about IV crush.   AMZN down $6.50.  May 145 puts up $.25.

  580.  That’s what earnings do to it.

  581.  BIDU- who knows.  P/E’s don’t matter in a bubble.  We are in the largest bubble the world has ever seen.  i would wait for after earnings and just pick your spot and stick to your stop loss, all you can do.  People are just trying to outrun the printing presses at this point. i don’t think half the holders of most stocks even know what the company does, nor do they care. They heat map the action and play pac man. All bubbles are the same, prices get justified suddenly by news in the press and the sales forces come out telling you you need a roku box, and then you will see the power.  So, will someone pay you more or less for a piece of digital paper in exchange for cash  that says you own part of a Chinese search engine after earnings, maybe, maybe not, wrong question, yes.  
    P.S. I have no idea what BIDU is, quite frankly I have no idea what GOOG is, other than the free part

  582.  /OB only trade I am doing before close is getting JCG back to 2/3.

  583. GILD moving now .. (same with CELG )

  584.  X – last 1/3, what do you think OPT?  Looks like a weak close over the 5 here and still in this bear flag

  585. JCG announces earnings on 5/27/2010. Last = 49.91

  586.  LPX! :-)
    CNX – good time to get in?

  587.  X-No idea here. Could go either way.

  588. Partha, I’m chomping at the bit to buy QCOM, too. I’m not sure now is the time. Not a bad idea taking a stab here though with a stop below 37.80. As long as it doesn’t gap (QCOM never gaps, right!?) your ristk should be very limited. If last quarter is any indication, we have lower to go yet. But maybe they’ll announce a 2000% dividend hike and that they are buying back 150% of the float to prop the stock up here…  I like it for a gamble.

  589. Took a small position in MNKD – Pure spec.

  590.  JCG testing $50

  591.  that’s ok ALBO – every position I take is pure spec

  592. JCI – anyone have thoughts on JCI.  they beat earnings and raised guidance but stock is down today.  are they a recipient of auto bailout $$’s?

  593. english – smile .. MON is green today …at this moment anyway …

  594.  I’m smiling inside, I’m actually  a lot of fun to be around, really, I swear

  595. GLUU again !

  596. GLUU – big push!!

  597. Sold some QCOM 38 puts.

  598.  GREAT WEEK!!! Enjoy the weekend. 

  599.  have a good one all! I enjoyed your company from my lair
    Opt, you can still have 2 margaritas you know

  600. Couldn’t resist… had to take a shot on QCOM. Likely a money loser by Monday at noon, but it was just too tempting. Barely got filled at the close.

  601.  I know…I have to.

  602. Scribe, Partha, QCOM could probably drop to 36 or so. That’s the support level from a few months earlier.

  603. Yep, QCOM may well see 36 before it sees 40… I just think it is too oversold and sees 38.5 or maybe even 39 first.

  604.  Anyone following me on gold, I am closing out 1/2 position tonight, should be able to get the same values in the morning.  I have a 2R profit here and need to preserve some profits, we may get a 1 or 2 day move down from here before finally taking off.  IT would be stupid to close out everything, but taking 1/2 off will be much more comfortable in case of a  down day