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Overnight Market Update – May 25, 2010

Overnight Market Update – May 25, 2010

Courtesy of Rom Badilla, CFA – Bondsquawk.com

Well, I picked a great night to have trouble sleeping.

The Euro is down 1.1 percent to 1.2233 versus the dollars as the European markets open for trading.  Currently as of 4:00am EST, my screens are nothing but a sea of red with most of the major indices down 2 to 3 percent.

Back here in the U.S., S&P 500 Futures are now down 24.9 points to 1046.40.

Swap spreads are spiking higher as this is the real story here. Banks apparently are having trouble with funding as the symptoms of a credit crunch are present. I hope I am wrong but diagnosis will come with the passage of time. 2-Year interest rate swaps is now higher by 7 basis points to a spread differential over comparable maturity Treasuries of 59 basis points. In two trading days, the spread has gapped out a total of 17 basis points. 

2-Year Interest Rate Swap Spreads – Historical Chart

The yield on 10-Year Treasuries is down to 3.11 percent and kissing up against a major resistance level of 3.10 percent. Passing that level could be a race downward, similar to the race toward the low in yields of 2.03 percent in late 2008, which occurred off of the same resistance point. 

If you accept the belief that markets are forward thinking, the pricing suggests in the aforementioned scenario the possibility of a double dip and/or deflation.  In either case and regardless of that happening or not, this is getting ugly real fast. Hopefully, the markets will turn around by the time of the opening bell comes around in the morning. That would be a nice dream to have as I head off to bed. Unfortunately and judging by the issues that is currently plaguing the markets, that’s all it will be for now. A dream. 

 


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