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Swing trading virtual portfolio – week of July 12th, 2010

This post is for live trades and daily comments. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here



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    Qualcomm upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman
    As reported previously, Goldman added Qualcomm to its Conviction Buy List. The firm said Qualcomm will benefit from accelerating smartphone growth, especially in the Android. Target $43


    Celgene upgraded to Buy from Hold at Morgan Joseph
    Morgan Joseph upgraded Celgene based on valuation and expected strong Revlimid sales. Target $66


    Monsanto upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup
    Citigroup upgraded Monsanto to Buy citing valuation and raised its target for shares to $62 from $56


    Research in Motion BlackBerry 6 could boost company, says Kaufman Bros.
    Kaufman Bros’ sources report that RIMM’s Blackberry 6 significantly closes the gap with Apple’s iPhone and Google’s Android. The firm thinks the new operating system could cause RIMM’s shipments to accelerate, and it reiterates a Buy rating on the stock


    The IBD-100 Top Ten for the week of July 12
    The following stocks are the IBD-100 Top Ten in ranking order for the week of July 12: 1-Baidu (BIDU), 2-Lululemon (LULU), 3-Netflix (NFLX), 4-Home Inns (HMIN), 5-MercadoLibre (MELI), 6-Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), 7-Vancelnfo (VIT), 8-Williams Partners (WPZ), 9-Deckers Outdoor (DECK), 10-F5 Networks (FFIV)…NOTABLE CHANGES: Ulta Salon (ULTA) went from #8 to #17…MercadoLibre (MELI) went from #10 to #5…Vancelnfo (VIT) went from #15 to #7

  6. thinks Google is a buy, while Baidu is overbid
    Based on Chinese authorities renewing Google’s (GOOG) license to operate in the country, thinks Google is the real buy, while Baidu (BIDU) is overbid. likes like Baidu on a fundamental basis, however, it’s shares trade at a hefty 37x forward earnings and 95x trailing, which, even for this pricey sector seems excessive. The shares also don’t pay a dividend, and have already surged more than 163% in the past 12 months. Google is trading at a much more reasonable 14.7x forward earnings, and 21.1x trailing. It also has no debt and its stock has risen just 13.4% in the past year

  7.  STEC looks good this morning thus far

  8. David Ristau just shorted STEC for the day …

  9.  Yes, still loving STEC. WIsh I had gone to 2/3 position on Friday as I thought doing, but was pretty close anyway, probably there now.

  10.  The 200 MA is at $15.20 and there is also some resistance at $16.30

  11.  MON is testing the 50.

  12. MRVL filling the gap here, the only one that has not is AAPL, it is the weakest of the herd

  13.  STEC-Thanks for the info on it Diamond. I hope David makes money on it. It is all about timing and there is no reason why we would not be able to both make money ;-) In fact, we already made some very nice profit in it ourselves (the stock is up almost 20% from where we first bought). I’ll just stay in the trend until it turns.

  14.  Whats your favorite PUT here Opt? I never got into DELL, and have 2/3 MRVL and 1/3 NFLX….

  15.  Also, what would you do with GOOG here? I have about 1/2 of a position in calls…

  16.  I don’t like DELL and MRVL here,  the trend changed 4 days ago when you could see all the funds accumulating those two stocks aggressively.  I am looking for something to replace them with.

  17.  Hanna, I am not that crazy about the puts we own right now, so looking at other ones. I’ll answer your question in a little bit.

  18.  WYNN pretty tempting for puts

  19.  yah, WYNN has been weak on this whole run up which is weird considering how strong it was when we were weak. 

  20.  /OS sold 1/3 MON calls. Will probably buy back.

  21.  Have to sell some STEC to be at 2/3 ;-) Will probably just roll higher.

  22.  What STEC calls are you in. I am in the AUG 14 calls but still have not made it back to 2/3

  23.  Also sold a little bit of June $35′s against my Leaps on DNDN to protect that bounce.

  24.  STEC. I have still the 13′s that have jumped like crazy in delta in the last week or so. They are now moving exactly like the stock (delta of 1), so I need to move higher. I am surprised you are not at 2/3. The stock has moved very significantly and the 14′s have a very high delta as well now. What is your stop?

  25.  yah, not sure either, my stop is .60C or 12.40 from my original entry at 13. I am right between 1/3 and 2/3

  26.  Oh, you are in August. I am still in July so maybe they moved faster. But I also have some stock, and I sold a couple 14′s (very little).

  27.  I am leaving for a golf outing in about 30 minutes. Would like to clean up a little between DELL and MRVL, what are you thinking. I dont mind AMZN and NFLX here and would like to stay balanced until we break down below some targets or trade the SPX to the next target of 185 before leaning short again

  28.  Yes, I have $0.60 as well on the original stop. Did you sell some July against your position last week? Maybe you sold a lot?

  29.  No, I sold a little JULY and bought them back when the premium was gone and rolled the whole thing out and up uncovered to August

  30.  Well, for DELL and MRVL I want to see the end of day. MRVL only got out of the flag today, so let’s see what happens. DELL looks strong but there is some resistance at $13. Do you feel that your portfolio is too bearish?

  31.  Covering some VVUS here. I only want to keep a very littel position for the decision of the 15th. Maybe none.

    Will also probably reduce ARNA as well by then.

  32.  We are sitting a full position short here, no problem intraday at this point. MRVL and DELL just filling gaps and you can see the reaction inMRVL after doing so.  DELL I cant believe is still in business, if it weren’t for that cash hoard, they are like MSFT minus any innovation at this point.  MAybe cover 1/3 here and there of those and add a WYNN and add something else long

  33.  covered 1/3 MRVL here, I had a little 17-16 july vertical I needed to clean up anyway and the remainder I have the AUG 16 puts at this point

  34. Is JCP a good short? I don’t like the fundamentals.

  35.  JCP-Yes, I do like it here as a short. You can pick $24.30 as a stop.

  36.  Ok, got to split, I will check in later. OPT, if you add a short or anything, will you post the stop as I wont have access to charts, just quotes. Thank you

  37.  I will. Enjoy your game!

  38.  /OB bought back 1/3 MON calls sold earlier.

  39. MON announces earnings on 10/6/2010. Last = 51.55

  40.  /OS sold 1/3 MRVL puts.

  41. Opt- what do you think of AAPL? Last week it was looking better but now I don’t know. Should I bail completely. I sold 1/4 this AM.

  42.  AAPL-I don’t know why it dropped like this right now. This story about iphone 4 just does not die. Let’s see if it stays above the 5MA.

  43.  Bought back the STEC sold earlier. MUCH cheaper.

  44.  Opt, i have to go….any expected adjustment with NFLX or MON today?

  45. From Phil’s page:
    A federal judge rules that a monopoly-abuse lawsuit against Apple (AAPL) and AT&T (T) can move forward with class-action status. The suit claims the firms’ actions in connection to the iPhone have hurt competition and driven up prices.

  46.  NIcha, no probably not.

  47. nicha –  The AAPL class-action lawsuit status was Friday’s news rehashed on today. However, the "Consumer Reports changes stance" story broke this morning and was reported on Bloomberg TV and CNBC just prior to the drop in AAPL stock. THAT is what moved the stock!

  48.  AAPL-Well, there are still selling them like hotcakes, so…but we will get out if the chart turns bearish, no need to be stubborn.

  49. AAPL/nicha
    See, Nicha, the problem is that "they" like to manipulate the big indices, and the easiest way to jerk the NASDAQ around is to jerk AAPL around.

  50.  Covered some of my short 14′s on STEC here. Will sell some 15′s later. David probably made some good money on this ;-)

  51.  Covered more VVUS short.

  52. AAPL/Nicha – as further proof of the AAPL manipulation, the Consumer Reports story broke on CNBC, tool mouthpiece of GE, GS, et al.

  53. Who is manipulating AAPL and why? Would the sentiment be the same if we were short AAPL instead of long?

  54.  MOS not helping our MON today.

  55.  Every piece of news on AAPL is always exagerated, just because it is so widely followed. Does not really matter much. If the chart turns we will get out. I don’t see it dropping much before earnings, but who knows…

  56. what’s the news on MOS?

  57. Opt – just wondering whether you ever chip in on Phil’s board? I know your trading style is different than his but have you ever just for fun showed up there?

  58. arindamC – Sierra Club suit – potential mine close in Florida for MOS …

  59.  Shorted some CROX for a quick fun trade. Will not publish in portfolio. risky.

  60. thanx Partha – so should be totally unrelated to MON and POT?

  61. arindamC – to my eye – POT bounced off 20dma and MON off the 50dma …

  62.  Nicha, I used to be on Phil’s board before we moved here ;-) I would occasionally post something over there, but our styles are very different as you say. Most of his trades are based on fundamentals, and mine are technical. I try to keep the discussion here to a minimum. It is my goal to just focus on the trades, charts, and results. His side is more open to discussions and debates.

  63. wondering if I should take profit on RIG here.  

  64. Opt- if u r not too busy. How long has the site been around? How long you been with the site? How many members?

  65.  /OS sold last MRVL puts.

  66.  Nicha, those questions would be better asked to Phil, I don’t know exactly. I have been doing this part of the site for 3 years now, but the site started way earlier.

  67.  Opt, what do you have as your stop on NFLX? Also you’r about 2/3 on MON now, right?

  68.  Hanna, our original stop on NFLX was $127. Right now it should be a strong close above the 5MA. We only have 1/3 left, so I am ok with keeping it a little bit longer.

    Yes, 2/3 on MON.

  69.  Glad we covered most VVUS yesterday. pppffeewww…Even if I don’t see what is new in the comments. We all know it works, the issue is safety.

  70.  Sold a little bit of ARNA here at $4.10. Protecting.


    FDA panel review finds Vivus weight loss drug Qnexa effective
    The FDA panel said that 62% and 66% of mid- and high-dose Qnexa-treated individuals, respectively, lost at least 5% of baseline body weight compared with approximately 16% of placebo-treated individuals. In addition, the FDA panel stated that a statistically significant higher proportion of individuals treated with Qnexa achieved greater than 5% body weight loss compared the individuals treated with the individual components. The FDA panel also discussed some safety concerns for the drug in the documents, which were posted ahead of Thursday’s FDA meeting on Vivus’ weight loss drug Qnexa


    Marvell Technology estimates and target lowered at Citigroup
    Citigroup sees risk to Marvell’s hard disk drive and networking related sales and lowered its estimates for the company to the low end of guidance to reflect these concerns. The firm dropped its target for shares to $23 from $24 but keeps a Buy rating.


    Mosaic target lowered to $42 from $65 at Deutsche Bank
    Deutsche Bank believes the mine shutdown puts $1.00 of Mosaic’s 2011 EPS at risk. The firm lowered its target for shares and keeps a Hold rating on the stock.


    Deutsche Bank lowers price targets in Internet space
    Deutsche Bank updated its estimates and lowered price targets in the Internet sector to reflect weakness in e-commerce sales, a slower economic recovery, and currency moves. The firm dropped its price target for (AMZN) to $166 from $177, for Google (GOOG) to $655 from $700, for Digital River (DRIV) to $21 from $23, and for Monster Worldwide (MWW) to $7 from $11. Deutsche remains positive on and Google, however, with Buy rating


    Apple antenna problem could create risk, says Kaufman Bros.
    After Consumer Reports said that it could not recommend Apple’s iPhone 4 due to the device’s reception problems triggered by an antenna gap, Kaufman Bros. believes the issue could create risk for the company. However, the firm continues to believe that Apple could solve the problem by including a case for free with iPhone 4s. The firm reiterates a Buy rating


    Wynn Resorts price target cut to $88 from $93 at Goldman
    Goldman lowered Wynn’s price target due to broad macro concerns. Shares are Neutral rated.


    Google Q2 consensus estimates achievable, says MKM Partners
    MKM believes the consensus estimates for Google’s Q2 are achievable since the expectations bar seems to be set low. As such, the firm sees limited risk of meaningful downside in shares and reiterates a Buy rating on Google ahead of Thursday’s results. 

  78.  VVUS fell 20% from earlier.

  79.  Should have shorted some again on that big jump.

  80.  Bought back the ARNA sold earlier at $3.90. That’s a 5% move…

  81.  penny stock trader powerhouse

  82.  haha..the advantage of being in France, and being able to trade those AH moves. Without having to wake up at 4 in the morning…

  83.  Selling some STEC 15′s, as planned yesterday.

  84.  AAPL is frustrating here

  85. should we get out of AAPL now?

  86.  AAPL chart is pretty ugly, should not fall in love with a company against a bad chart. 

  87. Opt – I am afraid of AAPL. It is below the 5dma. I want to get out. What is your opinion?

  88.  Sold again some ARNA

  89.  Yes, I agree with everyone, we should slowly get out of AAPL.

  90.  Could only sell a couple AAPL calls on the small bounce. Will wait for another bounce at this point. Also going to buy some Leaps for LT portfolio.

  91.  got out of the AAPL around 251 average, could take a few days or weeks for this one to stop selling. So many pumpers in this stock looking to get out on any bounce now.  

  92. Are u buying 2011 or 2012 leaps on aapl.

  93.  $245 is good support. I will buy some Leaps when/if it gets there.

  94. Hello all. Any thoughts on being in SNDK at this point?  

  95.  I am going with 2012 on AAPL. I already have some 2011 though, protected with some July calls that I am covering right now.

  96.  I have a sneaking suspicion you can pick up AAPL after earnings around 180.  Ironic that the market is looking for a multi year top to be put in here and APPL, the head cheerleader, is struggling.  Seems almost too perfect a scenario if the market gets volume and heads for a new powerful leg lower in coming weeks that AAPL was the tell.  Just a hunch, probably wrong, but it would make for a nice ending.
    1100 is so close that we should gravitate there regardless of news.  RIMM looks like it could fill that gap in doing so as it attracts tailwinds from AAPL’s headwinds 

  97.  With the Leaps, I don’t really care. I don’t see why the stock would drop to $180 with the business they have been doing lately with Ipad and iphone. But if it does, then I will be buy more. My time frame is much longer than a month or two.

    Again, for all the bashing, the iphone is still sold-out in most parts of the world. Even consumer reports said they did not recommend it but that it was the best smartphone on the market. I love it when people panic, it creates the best opportunities.

    I was able to sell a couple calls when it bounced to $152, but not as many as I wanted as I thought it would bounce more. Now, I will just wait, hoping that we touch $145 so I can buy some Leaps with the profits from ARNA ;-)

  98.  STEC jumping back above $15 ;-)

  99. Opt- what is your stop on AMZN?

  100.  AMZN-Original stop was $122.8

  101. bought a little AMZN puts to balance out my RIMM calls here

  102.  SNDK-I don’t like it too much. Very weak on a strong day.

  103.  English, when did you buy RIMM calls? I missed it, good move.

  104.  /OS sold 1/3 MON calls

  105.  This morning when I posted. Sold AAPL and bought RIMM, in the gap now so buying AMZN puts as our delta there is nonexistent.  

  106.  back to 2/3 AMZN here against 1/2 RIMM stop at 53 on a 55 entry

  107.  sold some 57.50′s in RIMM, july

  108.  Good trading, English!

  109. sold 1/3 RIMM calls

  110.  like to see NFLX continue this candle

  111. WMT and WAG have been nice movers

  112.  /OB added some NFLX puts. Back to 2/3.

  113. NFLX announces earnings on 7/21/2010. Last = 119.28

  114. Added back to 2/3 NFLX, now I want another call here

  115.  too early on the NFLX I guess, I thought 119.50 was a good entry

  116.  sold 1/3 DELL puts and bought back 1/3 RIMM calls

  117. opt, are you ALL out of AAPL?

  118.  AAPL-No, not at all. I have between 1/3 and 2/3 left.

  119.  Bought some AMZN puts for a quick trade, as it is against the 50MA.

  120. optrader
    where is your jump off on AMD?

  121.  Looks like ARNA wants to break higher.

  122. If INTC does not have good results tonight, this market might drop hard.

  123.  What do you mean by "jump off", Laurel?

  124. at what percentage or price have you set to sell at?

  125.  Sold more AAPL calls. 1/3 left.

  126. Laurel: AMD is david’s pick. He was looking for 5%.

  127.  Sold a little bit more STEC 15′s. Still more than 1/3 position. This one has been very good to us, especially with the trades yesterday. 

  128.  English / Opt : Still holding GOOG Calls, bought near 450 (1/2 position), now 1/2 covered by the July 510s. Would you do anything else ahead of earnings? Thanks!

  129.  hanna5 – i would get out before earnings or figure out a nice bullish earnings spread

  130. Looking at the declining volume on DIA/SPY vs. sharp rally…should we be adding more puts here?

  131.  gbrewing, I feel like we have enough puts here. Small deltas as they have been going against us, but I like our positions here, looks like they would drop nicely if market turns.

    I would like to find a call though to replace AAPL. STEC has been working well, and MON is up a lot from where we bought, but would not mind having something else as we increased NFLX.

  132. OPT, I have been having good luch w CTSH calls.

  133.  Or maybe will just reduce DELL.

  134.  IMAX is looking good.

  135.  CTSH-Good one, but it is exactly at resistance right now. So I would wait for it to break above first.

  136. I am holding GOOG 510/520 July bull call spread- origiinal cost was 0.90 now nicely up to 1.90.
    I am taking 50% off the table and will play with free money into the earnings.

  137. Opt- what to do with AMZN?

  138.  And of course MRVL is red…

  139.  AMZN-I bought some earlier as we had a very very small position at this point. I will probably sell the ones I bought today, but keep the small position just in case INTC disapoints.

  140.  Haichow, I would not play earnings with a vertical spread. Why don’t you convert it to a calendar later?

  141.  By the way, this is not "free money". The money you have made is booked, the earnings play will be a new trade. No need to give anything back.

  142. Opt- thanks for the suggestion- didnt think about it.
    Will wait to sell ALL before earnings and get in calendar spread.

  143. Hum…starting to see some bearish candle in the intraday charts. 

  144.  If you get into a calendar spread, make sure that it is ratioed (sell less front-month than you own back months). If you want, remind me right before earnings and I will look into it with you.

  145. switched aapl calls to vertical rather than selling here……would you have done a calendar instead?

  146.  ISRG looking good.

  147.  Vertical is fine here for AAPL. Just don’t keep it through earnings.

  148.  And IMAX keeps going.

  149.  /OB bought some UNP puts. Small position. Will probably make it 1/2 position by EOD.

  150. gbrewing, for AAPL, are you doing bear or bull spread and july/august?
    I am loking at bull call spread for Aug with the stock pulled back to below 50 SMA.

  151. UNP announces earnings on 7/22/2010. Last = 71.89

  152. WFR looks good for puts as well.

  153.  And APOL

  154.  bought a few APOL puts, still need some more, see how it goes

  155.  /OB bought some IMAX calls. Will get to 1/2 a position by end of day.

  156. IMAX announces earnings on 7/29/2010. Last = 13.32

  157. Hi there  to everyone, I am new here. What does the permalink do? It seems to carry us back to the same page.

  158.  sold a little NFLX puts against the 5dma

  159.  Hi ican, the permalink just gets you to the exact position of that post. It is convenient if you want to keep the address of a specific post somehwere.

  160. ican70 – Welcome!
    The "Permalink" is to link something from the archives (reference) to the current page.

  161. … or what Optrader said. ;-)

  162.  tied between UNP and APOL so I have a little of both, what stop do you like on UNP, 74?

  163. Thanks for the welcome. I appreciate it. I am new to options trading so I hope to learn something. Is there a page I may go to to see the terms?
    OpTrader example- What does-  /OB mean?

  164.  UNP-Yes, $74.

  165. Very counter-intuitive that the railroads are done even though CSX reported good earnings. Opt, English, anything you read into it?
    CSX CEO said that it will take a couple of years for the traffic to return to 2008 levels but other than that, I can’t find anything.

  166. "down" not "done"

  167.  60 minute SPX chart forming another pennant, these have all broken up as of late and would make a move to 1100 by the close typical. If it breaks down that would be the first bearish move of this rise, so one to watch perhaps

  168.  VIX on the verge of making a major low perhaps coupled with zero volume on the upside here and an earnings disappointment could be trouble from these lofty levels

  169.  Ican70. most of your questions should be answered here in the FAQ :

    If it does not make sense, or if you have any questions about the strategy, a specific trade, or anything, please do not hesitate to ask here.

  170. ican70 – To answer your 1:58 pm question (hot-linked via Permalink):
    OpTrader uses "/OB" when he is buying an option for the spreadsheet. Anyone can then do a "search" of the page (search: /OB) to quickly find them.

  171.  AMD looks good except for earnings on thur

  172.  Arindamc, I honestly have no idea. I don’t follow railroads closely.I went with UNP only because of the chart, and because it seems like a good balance to calls if market drops because of earnings, are they are a reflection of the economy.

  173. OPT also recommends a book that I have read and it gives you an education like nothing else. It is "Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" by Van K. Tharp. 

  174.  I am selling a little bit more ARNA here.

  175.  I still believe that the panel on VVUS might be negative, just because of the safety profile. That being said, we never know what the reaction might be on ARNA. If the panel is tough on VVUS, people might think that it will be difficult for ARNA as well to get approved. or not…

    If VVUS gets positive recommendations, then people might think that they are the clear winner as the results are better than ARNA. Or that ARNA will still be the clear winner anyway, just because there are no side effects and doctors will prescribe it for more people.

    So we don’t know. Anything is possible. We have a very big profit in ARNA, so let’s book most of it by only keep "play money" by the 15th. There will be plenty of time anyway between that date and ARNA’s decision this autumn.

    I am personally keeping a position that will still make me very happy if we jump on VVUS’s decision, but I am keeping some dry powder.

  176.  IMAX keeps moving..

  177.  And STEC is testing the 200 again.

  178.  yah, hard to get all the IMAX, I have about 3/4.  At the same time UNP keeps moving as well so I have less than  half thus far i what i want, so all in all its fine

  179.  Nice bounce on AAPL. We will keep our last 1/3.

  180.  I added some UNP. Not 1/2 position yet.

  181.  AMZN about to test the 200 soon

  182.  IMAX-What are going for, for position size, English? Was thinking $0.45-$0.50

  183.  yah, I had .50 from 13.30 and still need more, so I will probably be at .60c unless it pulls back

  184.  /OS The plan for the last hour is to finish buying UNP and IMAX, sell 1/3 DELL puts, and buy back 1/3 MON calls.

  185. haichow, i did august bull spread, bought 250, sold 270.  If aapl drops below 243 I’m out.  Earnings is 7/20.

  186.  /OS sold more STEC $15 calls. I now have 1/3.

  187. Just walked in from the golf course.  Strong day !         Covered some ARNA & OREX.                                                                

  188. Sold some ISRG.

  189.  I am also protecting some of the IMAX profits for the day by shorting a little bit of stock. Will cover and buy additional calls by close.

  190. Opt-  Any thoughts as to if the Avandia issues might play into the VVUS decision?

  191.  Well done with OREX, Albo!

  192.  Jtiff, even if there will probably be some of the same experts on the panel, each drug should be examined with its own safety profile. There might be some caution because of Avandia, but Qxena has plenty of issues and side effects by itself ;-)

  193. Done buying UNP puts

  194. Glad we passed on the WYNN puts yesterday

  195.  Any change with NFLX by close?

  196.  NFLX-No, just keeping it for now. It raised with the market in the last hour, but was weak all day. We need some puts. If INTC disapoints it could get ugly.

  197.  yah, I saw that earlier. With correlation not seen this high since 1987 you have to buy anything that has not moved yet.  that is why AMZN was the strongest mover sine breaking above the 5dma. It seemed like the laggard, but that is exactly what these algorithms sniff out to buy.

  198.  bought back 1/3 NFLX 

  199.  Covered the IMAX short. That was lucky timing on that trade.

  200.  Fun day…See everyone tomorrow.

  201. INTC : Best. quarter. ever.
    This was a huge beat of eps, revenue forecast.

  202. Vivus upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink
    Leerink believes Qnexa issues raised by the FDA are labeling and marketing issues, and not approval issues. The firm expects a positive panel vote for Qnexa and has upgraded shares

  203. Apple weakness provides buying opportunity, says RBC Capital
    RBC Capital believes that Apple could correct the problem with the iPhone 4, and the firm predicts that iPhone 4 demand could rebound quickly. The firm maintains an Outperform rating on the stock

  204. Research in Motion valuation remains compelling, says Credit Suisse
    Credit Suisse believes Nokia smartphone offering will remain uncompetitive and will benefit Research in Motion. The analyst said Research in Motion’s international opportunity remains underappreciated and reiterates its Outperform rating.

  205. That trade in DELL is exactly the example of what we should not do. We were not disciplined and we let evaporate a very substantial profit. It does not matter that we all think that DELL is going bakrupt, we should always listen to the chart and be disciplined.

    That candle on July 7th was a clear sign that we had to get out. Let’s be better at that in the future.

  206.  same with AMZN, MRVL, etc.  The market should tell us when to lean one way or the other by getting stopped out unless it is stock specific. But with correlation running at 87% it is a good time to let the stops let you lean. Just need to be 1/3 or 2/3 one way to make a big difference

  207. Buying some DELL puts for a trade at the 50.

  208.  LOL

  209. Yes, AMZN certainly, but we have had only 1/3 for a long time now. I am ok with the MRVL trade. We exited when it broke above the flag, nothing too bad there or undisciplined. The DELL trade though was very bad, as we had a very big profit, it had dropped a lot, and that candle was very strong.

  210. Good break from MON over the 50.

  211. And from STEC over the 200

  212.  sold a few UNP 70 puts against

  213. Sold 1/2 of the DELL puts bought earlier, as this is just a quick trade.

  214. Sold 1/2 of the DELL puts bought earlier, as this is just a quick trade.

  215.  IMAX just churning at 13.50, strange

  216. Opt – wasnt this the third entry into MON ?  Just helps to remind myself – that you need to respect stops and keep playing the charts.
    I am winding down my trades – going to go on vacation for 2 weeks – and dont want to watch these. 
    You guys have fun and see you all back in August …

  217.  bought back 1/3 RIMM calls

  218. back to half UNP here, those 70 puts lost 50% of there value on that pop.  Have to trade those exp. OTM options more often

  219. Yes, I think it was the third try on MON. Let’s always remember that what happened before does not matter.

  220. Agreed, English. I love those, especially when we are well covered with back month.

  221. /OS sold 1/3 MON calls

  222.  And enjoy your vacation, Partha!

  223.  Selling some ARNA.

  224.  ARNA much stronger than VVUS today :-)

  225.  As you might remember I posted a couple months ago about ARNA getting a peer review article in the NEJM. Looks like it might happen today or tomorrow.

  226.  With the timing of the peer review, I have decided to sell less ARNA than anticipated.

    My belief is that a positive VVUS panel will be a positive for ARNA as it has been the trend this week. A negative panel could be a negative, but now with the timing of the peer review, and depending on the reasons why the panel would be negative (safety concerns), then it could be positive for ARNA as well.

    In any case, even if VVUS gets a positive panel, I don’t think it will get approval (remember DNDN). My feeling is that ARNA will be the winner, but we might have to wait until October for that.

  227.  AAPL back to the 50

  228. Opt – Thanks.  AAPL back on again …  BTW – iPad is apparently a "trendy" gadget in India – friend has asked me to get a 3G model for him. 
    Also – Local supply of iPad has improved – I could walk in and buy one on Monday – 2-3 weeks ago – you couldnt do that.

  229.  Not much happening here..

  230. You gonna buy back the MON calls opt, or just lock in some profits?

  231. Also, you planning on holding apple through earnings?

  232.  I debated a long time yesterday between ISRG and IMAX…Looks like ISRG would have been a better pick after all.

  233.  MON-Yes, I will buy back 1/3. And I will sell AAPL before earnings. But we still have time..

  234. Beautiful shooting star.


  235.  could always buyback 1/3 DELL and hedge it off with some HPQ

  236. opt, which platform are you using for your trading? I dont have all the options that you have on this screen.
    I am with TD ameritrade

  237. Opt or anyone else who has iphone 4: I thought I heard from Bloomberg that Apple will recall iphone 4; but I can’t find any report online.  Anyone else heard this?

  238. haichow, I use Think or Swim for trading, and Power Ertade Pro for charts and watchlists. 

  239.  SeanC, I have heard rumors of it, but that would be very surprising. Sacconaghi estimated that it would could Apple $5B. 

  240.  I think it is more probable that they will give bumper cases for free and/or issue a software fix.

  241. Yes it would be bad; but it may be the thing they have to do to protect their image?

  242.  English, HPQ seems as extended as DELL here, doesn’t it?

  243. If they do recall to protect their image it would be after earnings because that would hit their stock big and english’s target of $180 On apple wud be reached :)

  244.  well, if the fact is what consumer reports claims and it is a design flaw rather the software issue AAPL claims, then yes, they will have to recall because they will have to fix the issue and the new phones will of course not have the problem. If you bought the old phone they will have to be returned to have the Antenna replaced.  the question is not whether or not this will occur, but rather if a new antenna is possible without having to overhaul the design, due to everything fitting the way it is currently designed.  From a consumer stand point, there is no way I would buy a new Iphone right now. When they fix it I will, but the network is already almost unusable and couple that with having to use masking tape to fix a design flaw and, no way.  I have a 3Gs and it works fine and does the same thing as the new one, so I am sure there are a lot of people that feel bitten and it will affect sales.  AAPL has plenty of cash though and this would be a minor hiccup, but stock price and company valuation rarely go hand in hand, especially in this ponzi market where you can just rotate out and into something else at lightspeed.  just my take, I think AAPL will be the tell in 2 months looking back

  245. english, I agree with your sentiments regarding AAPL. If I was going to buy the IPhone4, I would wait for this issue to be resolved. Long term, it’s all good, intermediate term, not so.

  246.  HPQ, yes indeed, it would be a wider stop and you are concerned only with the rate of decline of the two.  HPQ may hold up better on the way down. Just an idea really.  Everything is extended and trading in lockstep as they are all components of ETF’s and thus bought and sold together.  I have been adding DELL puts here for the day, will see how it closes and see if it can be hedged with something.  Interesting that we are up on INTC news, and yet iNTC just keeps grinding lower, makes me ok with adding DELL, but I do want to go home neutral until we take out some price points

  247.  Good analysis, English. I personally love my phone. I just do not hold it in my palm on the left corner, and the signal is fine. I will probably get a bumper case to cancel the issue completely.

    The phone has so many other features I love (the camera takes incredible photos for example, and the battery is amazing compared to the 3GS), that I really don’t care. Apparently I am not the only one as sales are still through the roof even with the issue widely broadcasted. 

    Maybe the media (and especially CNBC) is blowing this out of proportion. Would not be the first time with Apple.

  248.   "the iPhone should have been sitting on a non-metallic pedestal inside an anechoic chamber"
    This is my favorite part.  the point from the stock is that we are going to see more and more conflicting reports and thus no need to be long until the truth comes out. Everything else is just a third derivative of rumor and speculation.  Reminds me of BP and how much oil was gushing and all the attempts, some 90 days later and i still don’t know what is going on down there.  Wait for the dust to settle. I know that will be when I am ready to purchase a new phone

  249. Maybe INTC is a good edge to DELL. Maybe adding some STEC..

  250. Very well could be, but unless the phone takes better pictures than my Canon SLR I will use it to shoot in the restaurant, so a better camera I think is more gimmick.  I am a huge AAPL fan, I trade on Imacs, own an Iphone and bought an IPAD, but I am starting to get very sick of the way AAPL releases products that are blatantly lacking things so obvious so they can release the next version.  I think the consumer is getting more tapped out by the day and you may see a backlash in the next year.  You could also see a backlash from the hosting networks subsidizing these devices.  I don’t know what it is but I am sniffing change for the first time, could be my lunch.

  251. Or just keep the 2/3 DELL and see if it closes in the RED and use the gain as a hedge itself, that would be spicy

  252. Opt, I did not enter the DELL trade initially as I had some other puts. Is it a good time now to enter DELL? If yes, what should be the stop?

  253. Maybe that would be a good indicator to get back into AAPL when english buys a iPhone 4 :)

  254.  Sold the other 1/2 of DELL puts bought earlier.

  255.  Arindamc, sure, if you need some puts. I would use today’s high as stop.

  256.  I dont like the way STEC looks on the daily with those 2 candles making lower highs. The bullish look would be if it trades down to the 5dma and holds to form a pennant, but with the market up here not sure things don’t need a nice round of selling to put the bulls in the nervous court. i am looking for some other call ideas and eating a burrito 

  257.  Well, I will delete this in a little bit, as it is a little bit big and not sure it looks that good in a browser. but as you asked for photos of our vacation ;-) That was taken with the iphone.

  258.  ahh, very nice OPT! Beautiful daughter.  Just had to take my daughter in for 9 month shots, pretty much the opposite of a ferris wheel in France

  259.  hahaha, your time will come. Faster than you think.

  260.  The weakest part of the retail sales numbers this morning was auto parts, yet these things do not go down

  261.  yah, she started crawling a week ago and it’s Katy bar the door.  

  262.  AZO is just insane

  263. AZO will fall so hard and long one day, i hope to be around to see it

  264. english- I got a 9 month old daugher too!

  265.  Bought back some ARNA

  266.  Also started buying back some MON

  267.  nicha- nice!  very fun

  268.  Also bought a little bit of GLUU

  269.  VVUS dropping hard. Taking ARNA with it.

  270.  If you want to follow the panel tomorrow on VVUS from Adam Feuerstein.

  271.  NVDA’s chart looking pretty good.

  272.  /OS sold 1/3 NFLX puts

  273.  I have us leaning a little long here with 1/3 NFLX

  274. /OB Added 1/3 DELL puts.

  275.  sold 1/3 RIMM calls to even up

  276. DELL announces earnings on 8/19/2010. Last = 13.47

  277.  /OB bought back 1/3 NFLX. Sorry, changed my mind.

  278.  We have 2/3 NFLX and 2/3 DELL puts.

  279. NFLX announces earnings on 7/21/2010. Last = 122.32

  280.  Done buying MON calls. Back to 2/3 position.

  281. Some stocks that have zoomed to new 52 week highs in this rally

  282.  New England Journal of Medicine Publishes Results of Two-Year BLOOM Trial Showing Lorcaserin Caused Significant Weight Loss and Improved Maintenance of Weight Loss
    Last update: 7/14/2010 5:00:00 PM
    Lorcaserin Also Improved Values for Biomarkers That May be Predictors of Future Cardiovascular Events -
    SAN DIEGO and WOODCLIFF LAKE, N.J., July 14, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ — Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA) and Eisai Inc. today announced that results from the two-year BLOOM (Behavioral modification and Lorcaserin for Overweight and Obesity Management) trial will be published in the July 15, 2010, issue of the New England Journal of Medicine. The data presented in the article show that lorcaserin used in conjunction with behavioral modification caused significantly greater weight loss and improved maintenance of weight loss compared to placebo. Lorcaserin also improved values for biomarkers that may be predictive of future cardiovascular events, including lipid levels, insulin resistance, levels of inflammatory markers and blood pressure.
    Steven R. Smith, M.D., Scientific Director of the Florida Hospital Translational Research Institute for Metabolism and Diabetes, was the lead author of the article. Neil J. Weissman, M.D., President of MedStar Health Research Institute and Professor of Medicine, Georgetown University, oversaw the echocardiographic safety evaluations that were performed in the study. Drs. Smith and Weissman served as BLOOM’s co-principal investigators.
    "There is a significant and growing need for effective treatment options that can help patients reduce their weight in a well-tolerated and safe manner," said Dr. Smith. "Lorcaserin patients who completed Year 1 of the BLOOM trial lost an average of 8.2% of their baseline weight and improved their cardiovascular risk factors."
    "We have reached another major milestone for Arena with publication of the BLOOM results in the New England Journal of Medicine," said Jack Lief, Arena’s President and Chief Executive Officer. "We look forward to continued execution of our plans for lorcaserin and interaction with the FDA as it conducts its review of the NDA."
    At the end of Year 1 of the BLOOM trial, using Intent-to-Treat with Last Observation Carried Forward analysis (ITT-LOCF), the proportion of patients achieving at least 5% body weight loss in the lorcaserin group (47.5%) was more than twice that achieved by the placebo group (20.3%). Nearly three times as many patients achieved at least 10% weight loss in the lorcaserin group (22.6%) than in the placebo group (7.7%). Lorcaserin patients who completed the first year of the trial according to the protocol lost an average of 8.2% of their baseline weight, or approximately 18 pounds, at the end of Year 1 as compared to approximately 7 pounds in the placebo group. In Year 2, patients who continued to take lorcaserin were significantly better able to maintain their Year 1 weight loss than those who were switched to placebo.

  283.  We have a clear winner with ARNA :-) Am I the only one excited about all this here?

  284.  Apple has informed select media that the company will hold a press conference to discuss iPhone 4 on Friday, July 16 at 10am PDT in Cupertino.

  285.  I’m excited, but I play these side bets relatively small.  I am excited though, don’t get me wrong, 10% is 10%

  286. I am happy abt ARNA too. :)

  287. Opt – very excited.  This was in my LTP – so R was a bit larger than my swing trades …  Let us know – if you are making adjustments …

  288. Opt – I’m exited too  ! ! !     Just not at 2:21 AM.  LOL

  289. Opt – very nice!  Now, ARIA and CRIS need to join the fun…..

  290. Now I’m excited !

  291.  Wow. MON is unbelievable. It went down, down, down. Now it goes up, up, up. :)

  292.  sold 1/3 RIMM calls

  293. Sorry I am late, had to drive to Italy ;-)

  294. So what happened with VVUS? Could not follow.

  295. Adam Feuerstein said they made a good presentation.  Waiting for questions.

  296. /OS sold a tiny ARNA and 1/3 NFLX

  297. Thanks, Albo

  298.  bought back 1/3 RIMM calls

  299.  sold 1/3 RIMM calls and selling 1/3 AMZN puts

  300.  sold 1/3 UNP puts

  301.  Any move on AAPL here? Or are we waiting to see what happens at the press conf?

  302. /OS sold 1/3 UNP puts

  303.  sold a little IMAX

  304. /OS sold 1/3 IMAX calls.

  305.  Just copying your trades today.

  306.  Apparently not going that well for VVUS. My feeling is that they will ask for additional data for safety. Might delay 6 months or so. ARNA might stay up even with VVUS down, just because of peer review. 

    In any case, if ARNA drops fast after vote, it might be a good buying opportunity.

  307.  LOL, then you will be selling 1/3 DELL if it trades 13.20 and fills the gap

  308.  WFMI chart looking good here

  309.  Ok, sounds good on DELL.

  310. Opt: I have a little bit ARNA that I bought a few months ago and didn’t do anything about it – but thanks I am very excited! Should I sell to protect profits – you said "In any case, if ARNA drops fast after vote, it might be a good buying opportunity".

  311. CMG, CREE, SPG, BXP, and UPS look like interesting short setups…
    lots of similar looking charts

  312. I am looking for a good call to buy. Do you like SYT?

  313.  started buying back a little UNP puts

  314.  Opt, The chart on appl looks bearish with the direction of the 5ma pointing down and trading below the 5ma. Are we waiting for the announcement tomorrow

  315.  CLNE held up very well today.  I sold Aug 17s for a quick day trade.

  316. Opt / English – Any adjustment on MON today? The size of this position keeps growing for me with the delta…now about a full position again…

  317. Is ARNA on fire or what??  I too am excited.


  318.  hannah5- that is a beautiful thing!  There is some resistance at the 56.40 area.  But insiders have been buying up the stock of late.  Have you taken any profit thus far?

  319. Selling a tiny more ARNA and taking my wife to a nice itlalian dinner ;-)

  320.  that would be a :)  not a  ;)

  321. Hannah, I just sold a little bit of MON as well. keeping it to 2/3. VERY nice.

  322. SeanC, I would sell 1/3. Not more than 1/2 for sure. Difficult to trade in and out of those big movers, that’s why I have only been selling tiny lots. But I like the risk here, and I am willing to give some back if I have to (and probably buy more). Probably not the case for everyone.

  323. :-) :-) :-)

  324. AAPL- yes the chart is bearish, but it is ok, we only have 1/3 left, willing to take the chance. Also, with earnings coming calls won’t lose much anyway.
    But if you are not comfortable with your position, or somewhat anxious, please reduce! Nothing beats a good night of sleep without stressing-out about your positions.

  325. SYT-not good for options.

  326. strength is INTC is pushing things higher

  327. english, i had a TON of the July 50s that i added at 0.30 or something before the turn. When the stock started moving the postion became HUGE and i rolled it to August 50s, and have now rolled some to August 52.5′s. I just sold some to take it down to 2/3s again. I also sold Jan 45 puts, which are doing well. Just trimming so my portfolio is not too levered to MON….Lemme ask a logistical Q : In order to keep this position at 2/3, would you 1) Sell some of the 52.5s or 2) Roll the position to 55s?

  328.  I would stick with the 52.50′s for now.  As you take profit on the way up via selling some 52.50, you can buy back something higher if you add back later on a dip.  If it trades to 60 and you are back to full you can sell 1/3 by selling those 52.50, then if it were to dip back to 57 say, you could increase your delta back to 2/3 by picking up the 55′s say.  If you move up to the 55′s now, you are just paying commission, and if it pulls back to 54, then you are OTM and need to roll down again perhaps. So, until the delta gets too high on the individual option, where you are not getting any more growth, just hang out.

  329.  reading your post again, I would sell some of the 52.50′s. I am all in the 52.50′s right now.  I will wait till we break good above probably 57 then roll higher.  No need to adjust too much, these are acting very well and the delta is .68 vs. .56 for the 55′s

  330.  Will need to find a replacement for IMAX most likely

  331.  WFMI through the 50 if anyone jumped on long

  332. english – My favorite part:  U.S. Senator Charles Schumer, a Democrat from New York, issued a public letter to Jobs saying Apple’s efforts to address the matter so far are “insufficient” and asking the company “to address this flaw in a transparent manner.”
    The most dangerous place in the world to be is standing between a camera and a pandering Chuck Schumer!

  333. Bought back the ARNA sold earlier.

  334. Like 12% lower. Crazy moves

  335.  I did not read that part.  Why the hell is a politician even weighing in on this issue.  Comments like this will make me revise my DOW targets from 6000 down to 5000.

  336. opt- I sold my 510/520 call spread and bought 1:2 520 calendar spread on GOOG.

  337. Will hold Imax one more day at least. We have already reduced. Let’s see.

  338. Haichow, I don’t have my full think or swim here to make a good analysis, but looks fine to me. When are earnings?

  339. What a joke those politicians are. What did HE accomplish lately?

  340.  DF anyone?

  341. Only plan for last hour is to buy back 1/3 NFLX

  342. We don’t have any earnings on our positions tonight, right? I need to update the spreadsheet, will do it tomorrow morning

  343. GOOG earnings are today- after mkt close.  Whisper # 6.86

  344.  we have most of our tech earnings next week with AMZN, NFLX and RIMM.  Hopefully they dont gun these up to earnings, which is possible with the high short interest getting nervous.  GOOG earnings may be the tell on how the stock reacts 

  345. Surprised by the action on Imax. Looked so strong the other day. It is like all the buyers have disappeared.

  346.  they did some deal and I think people were buying it on hopes of something else in the rumor bag

  347.  sold 1/3 UNP puts, back to 2/3 again

  348. GLUU just moved up.

  349.  Opt, you like 2/3 NFLX over 2/3 AMZN here?  

  350. And GLUU is flying

  351. OREX is probably a good short for anyone who is anxious about protecting their profits in ARNA

  352. AMZN VS NFLX- I don’t really have a preference. I guess NFLX feels more overvalued here. Maybe…

  353.  NFLX is squirrelly with the 20% short interest and earnings are a couple of days before AMZN.  I just don’t want to be forced out of NFLX on some short panic because of earnings, AMZN feels a little safer and the chart is a little worse or the same

  354. AMZN VS NFLX- I don’t really have a preference. I guess NFLX feels more overvalued here. Maybe…

  355. Huge trade in GS, with uptick in price. Strange.

  356. You might be right. Too late for me, though, I already started buying some back. Does not matter much I think.

  357. Added some ARNA here. And shorted a little bit of OREX.

  358.  Whatever is going on a Government Sachs is driving us higher

  359. I have played a lot with the power trade pro on iPad and it is VERY good! Even trading is good on it.
    Now they need to include candlesticks and it will be great.
    Also, all those apps on iPhone and iPad need to be able to sync our watch lists between all devices, including computers. Very annoying To have to re-enter stock symbols and delete some

  360.  BP flying

  361. And added more ARNA. Good for now

  362.  ARNA getting clobbered here

  363.  ARNA really getting destroyed

  364. Adding some ARNA

  365. what’s the story with ARNA? VVUS? why the sudden drop?

  366. Covered 1/2 OREX short

  367. ggog’s earnings must be really good for this sudden mood change or is it the financial reform bill?

  368.  sold 1/3 DELL puts

  369. VVUS rejected.  Buying more ARNA here.

  370. Seems FDA panel rejected VVUS drug

  371. VVUS no vote, as we anticipated. ARNA over reaction.
    Managed a 30% profit on OREX short, wished I had more. Now I have a bigger position in ARNA.

  372.  that was one hell of an ARNA wipeout, up 35% to down 15%…

  373. Again, ARNA does not have the issues that VVUS has a. Stupid to punish it.

  374. And I thought I had seen it all with DNDN…

  375.  Sketchy ass market all around

  376. What is crazy is that now that VVUS is out, the road is clear for ARNA. We have said all along here that VVUS would be rejected. Was expecting a nicer panel though ;-)

  377. What is crazy is that now that VVUS is out, the road is clear for ARNA. We have said all along here that VVUS would be rejected. Was expecting a nicer panel though ;-)

  378. NWBO Opt….DNDN can’t get the stuff out fast enough.  One of the risks I highlighted a while ago.  There are more things in trials for prostate than any other disease right now.  Diabetes is second.  I don’t like DNDN, although they proved to be a good bet at $5.

  379. Should do good on our remaining little VVUS short tomorrow.

  380. Pharmbiy, I meant that I thought I had seen all the crazy biotech action with DNDN. But that was nit bad in ARNA today lol

  381. I hope some of you were more conservative than me and sold more when it was up 30%. I don’t mind myself as I am actually happy to have more now, but not everyone can be patient.

  382. ARNA-Nice bounce after hour. Selling the last buy, booking the profit on those.

  383.  I sold all of mine over 5 and boguht the 5 calender on the first dip under 5 today.  Bought back the July 5 calls for nothing and bought ARNA stock at 3.70, will sell those and go for the free shot

  384.  You can already sell of that stock at $4.3 right now :-)

  385.  selling some here, will sell it all and trade stock short against the 5 calls

  386.  I just went take a look on the Yahoo board for VVUS. Which I never do anymore, and now I know why. There is one guy over there who is convinced that he won’t lose any money because he had a stop at $12 before the stock got halted. So he thinks that al his stock will be sold at $12 no matter what.

    Wouldn’t it be nice if it worked that way? Feeling bad for those people though, that is going to be a huge drop

  387.  So ARNA is pretty much at yesterday’s close. As if nothing happened today…

  388.  $4.45 AH, sold a little bit more.

  389.  Covered 3/4 of those VVUS short :-) This little trade ARNA/VVUS/OREX has been VERY good to us.


    Arena Pharma upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
    JP Morgan upgraded Arena Pharma (ARNA) to Overweight with a $6 price target after an FDA panel voted against Vivus’ (VVUS) weight loss drug. The firm believes Arena’s obesity drug lorcaserin has the best shot at approval given its safety record and trial design.

  391.  Sold a little bit more ARNA at $4.77. Still more in account that yesterday, and P/L is now better 


    Apple could carry out smaller-scale iPhone 4 exchange, says Kaufman Bros.
    After conducting checks, Kaufman Bros. believes a full iPhone 4 recall by Apple is unlikely, but the firm thinks the company could launch a smaller-scale exchange. However, the firm thinks the financial impact of the "death grip" problem is likely to be immaterial and it maintains a Buy rating and $349 target on the stock.

  393.  Congrats to anyone who did not panic yesterday and bought more ARNA on the drop. We could have sold more at the top yesterday, but everything happened like we expected. With the VVUS rejection that created a great buying opportunity.

  394. english – LOL!!!

  395.  bought back 1/3 DELL puts

  396.  GLUU has been sneaking up nicely

  397. GLUU, I didn’t get enough with the secondary offer

  398. UNP going now.

  399.  Selling little by little the GLUU bought 2 days ago. Very nice profit in 2 days, keeping main position.

  400.  Covered the last VVUS short. No need to be greedy. Would take a 58% move anyday. Time to move on.

  401.  tempted to buy GS puts

  402.  bought some AAPL july 240 puts for fun, only 10c

  403. Followed you on those English – mostly to cover my aapl august longs in case the conf is negative

  404.  haana5- I will trade those around for fun, expecting to lose all 10c

  405.  gonna sell some UNP 70 puts, JULY

  406. Yup me too… and, in case i forget to say later, English & Opt thanx for your help this week….with MON and GOOG was my best trading week ever… :)

  407.  hanna5- congrats, let’s continue on this theme for a decade or two

  408.  those selling UNP 70 puts, make sure you are ratioed

  409.  too bad IMAX is such a pig

  410.  sold 20% of my AAPL puts, those were up 100%

  411. /OS Sold another 1/3 UNP puts. Will buy back before close. Nice little trade on AAPL, English

  412.  And started adding some ARNA again.

  413.  DELL starting to look pretty good 

  414.  Yes, imax is the only one that’s annoying. It’s ok, can’t win them all. 

  415.  yah, UNP should pay for IMAX

  416. And more…If you look at both charts, imax is still pretty close to the 5MA, VS UNP. Maybe we should have picked a stop a little bit wider, but we were far from it already. I might sell 1/3 today, and keep 1/3. And keep 2/3 UNP.

  417.  I am bout a scratch with my two stops, 1.70 and .60c, obviously it could start working here if UNP continues and IMAX holds up. i am sure I am up a little with the growth in UNP, but it was a wide stop

  418.  sold half of my AAPL puts now

  419.  Would love to get to 57.50 on MON today and roll up

  420.  MON July 57.50 calls for 3c would have been a good one

  421. OPT, watching MON is like watching Drew Barrymore watch a fuzzy tv.  I cannot look away

  422. LOL. English, nice trade on AAPL. Closed out 2/3 of my puts for 100%+

  423.  Volume levels today running quite high for half day.

  424.  important area right here on the SPX for the bulls to hold

  425.   English,What level are you looking at in the spx

  426.  I am looking through my STU’s from EWI and they had 1074 as an area on the SPX that needed to be breached to signal a real bearish turn. I am trying to find the exact number they were looking for and why, but I have a line at 1074 on my daily SPX chart, trying to look back at why

  427.  Thanks, will pay more attention to those levels

  428.  really looking for a break of 1033 on the SPX till the correction count can be confirmed finished i believe, i will post some updates over the weekend

  429.  Apple starting to breakdown into the announcement. Good fun trade English 200%. Thanks for the charts

  430.  DELL closed that gap here

  431.  I did not get the Drew Barrymore’s joke. But I feel the same.

  432.  UNP looking good.

  433.  Buying back the GLUU sold earlier.

  434. Coverage of Apple’s iPhone 4 Press Conference
    Live Web/Twitter Coverage

  435.  Opt, where would you place your target on unp

  436.  dent123, we don’t really use targets here. We just stay with the trend until it changes. Why get-out at a pre-established target if you can get more? Our biggest wins, and what made a difference, was when we rode a trend forever. 

  437.  That being said the 200MA has been VERY strong support on UPN. So when it gets there we will look closely.

  438.  Understand, I realize that has been my problem in the past, looking to short term and exiting to early.

  439.  I have mac is there a way of updating the page automatically or do I have to keep reloading it

  440.  I have amac is there a way of updating the page automatically or do I have to keep reloading it

  441.  AZO

  442. Opt- wud u do any trades for AAPL before the announcement? Would like to recover aome f my losses but I will NOT do anything unless u agree. Thank u.

  443.  Ok, I have to go for a little bit. Just when the Apple’s conference starts.

    Anyway, would probably not trade around it. It’s been an amazing week so far, and I don’t want to give any of it back at this point.

    I will be back in a couple hours. Only plan anyway before close will be to buy back 1/3 UPN.

  444. /OS I just lied. Just sold 1/3 NFLX puts. Will buy back before close.

  445.  NIcha, my feeling is that it will go up. But we already have 1/3. Plenty of time to make your money back on another trade.

  446.  it’s gambling anyway, no one knows.

  447.  Sold a tiny UNP as well, to protect that profit. Will buy back of course before close, make it a 2/3 position. Ok, I am gone!

  448.  bought some PM puts

  449.  sold a little extra delta off in AMZN puts

  450. English- I sold July calls in CELG for .31 sometime back and they are now .01. Should I buy them back or let them expire. This is in an IRA acct. Thank you.

  451. Opt, English, what do you think of NFLX here from a technical perspective? I would have expected a meltdown today but it’s held up so far.

  452. Opt, I think there’s a mistake in your spreadsheet regarding the NFLX entry price. Currently, it shows 129 – I don’t think NFLX has traded that high ever – it could in the future, but not yet ;-)

  453.  nicha- I would let them expire if they are way OTM, no need to pay the commission
    arindamc- NFLX is holding up so far because of earnings next week and the high short interest.  People will want out before earnings so you have to take each dip as a time to cover because you will be forced to cover before Wednesday at whatever price it trades.  If people start trying to pile out next week it could trade up wherever, so these dips may or may not be the last chance.  Once the covering starts, it feeds on itself.  That is why I liked AMZN yesterday over NFLX, AMZN has [plenty of shorts but not as thin as NFLX

  454.  arindamc- the NFLX entry price was adjusted to reflect the trades we have made. If your entry was 120 say, and we took some off at 110 then bought those back at say 118, you would have made $8 on that scalp of 1/3 of a position. To reconcile this accurately, we just take the $8 and divide by 3 to spread it across the whole position.  8 / 3 = 2.66, so we would count the gain of 2.66 and add that to the entry price. Since it was a gain and we are short, we raise our avg. cost by 2.66 to 122.66.  When we close the position this will accurately reflect the gain on that trade spread across the whole position.  Make sense?

  455. English, thanks for the explanation

  456.  Sounds like AAPL will have a new phone coming out in September or October sometime.  Everyone who bought can get a free case or a refund

  457.  English, trying to understand you reason for jumping in on PM. Is it just the bearing candle you are seeing today after the run in the stock or are there additional  reasons.

  458.  English sorry bearing should read bearish

  459.  dent123- yah, I see a big head and shoulders and it trading at the very top of the range from the neckline to the right shoulder. the candle today is very bearish.  That being said, earnings are next week and I have only bought half of what io want and will exit before earnings unless it drops hard next week before hand.  I dont love this position here, but just threw something on to see how it goes. I am not making it a position yet

  460.  Philip Morris International revises FY10 EPS guidance; sees growth of ~14-17% vs 10-13% projected in April 2010 (44.99 )
    Co issues in-line guidance for FY10 (Dec), sees EPS of $3.70-3.80 vs. $3.77 Thomson Reuters consensus. Reported EPS for FY10 are projected to increase by ~14%-17%, compared to $3.24 in FY09, up from 10-13% range projected in April 2010. This higher projection, compared to the April 2010 guidance, reflects an improved business outlook, in particular with regards to Japan, and the positive impact of the reversal of certain tax provisions, offset by adverse currency of $0.20 per share. This guidance excludes the impact of any potential future acquisitions, asset impairment and exit cost charges, and any unusual events.  
    Seems like they already reaffirmed guidance so some of the news may be already in the price of the stock. I am going to take a small position 

  461. English, thank you so much for the explanation on the nflx entry price. I was sure we had to some explanation one day about this, who the new way to compute re-entries.

  462. That was just a great week, well done everyone! Buying back the nflx and unp here.

  463. Love the DELL puts

  464.  2/3 NFLX

  465. Yes

  466.  have a good weekend everyone!

  467.  Pharm-
    What other biotechs are you following besides ARNA that you have high hopes for?