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Thursday, March 30, 2023


Durable Goods Are Latest Economic Disappointment: June -1.0% Reading Is Largest Decline Since August 2009 (And Misses Consensus Of Course)

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The June US durable goods order is the latest disappointment in a streak of poor macroeconomic data that started well over a month ago, and which will soon enough begin to impact not only GDP but also corporate earnings, as the macro double dip which is now firmly in place, makes it all too clear why companies have been miserly conserving cash. Durable Goods came at -1.0%, a major disappointment to consensus which had been hoping to a nice boost from the previous -1.1% number (now revised to -0.8%), and looking for a +1.0% reading. Better luck next time. Durables ex transportation came at -0.6% on expectations of 0.4. New orders of non-defense aircraft plunged by -25.6%, while the ever critical to the global economy Computers and Electronic products, dropped across both shipments (-4.1%) and New Orders (-1.9%). Overall, this was the largest Durable Orders decline since August 2009.

From the PR:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $2.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $190.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second consecutive monthly decrease and followed a 0.8 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.7 percent.

Yet even after all this time, the old faithful, inventories, just keeps on chugging along. At some point this, too, shall pass, and will destroy corporate margins:

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, up six consecutive months, increased $2.8 billion or 0.9 percent to $308.2 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent May increase.

May’s revised data:

Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $412.7 billion (revised from $413.2 billion); shipments, $416.0 billion (revised from $416.8 billion); unfilled orders, $803.0 billion (revised from $802.8 billion); and total inventories, $520.8 billion (revised from $520.4 billion).

Full release.

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