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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Disappointing NFP: Private Up Just 71k On Consensus Of 90k, Total Down -131K on Consensus -64K

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

July Non Farm Payrolls miss expectations, coming in at -131,000, way below the consensus of -65,000, yet the unemployment rate drops once again to 9.5% as even more people drop out of the labor force. Total Private Payrolls rise only 71k, on consensus estimates of +90k. The June Jobs report is revised majorly downward to -221K, from -125K, as the double dip gets yet another validation. The 2 Year Treasury just hit another fresh all time low of 0.5136%. And the stunner: those working actually declined by 159,000 to 138.960 million, even as another 381 thousand left the labor force between June and July, resulting in an actual drop in the unemployment rate from 9.6% to 9.5%. Another NFP debacle which will certainly cause stocks to sure by at least 5% as QE 2 is now absolutely inevitable.

  • U-6, or real unemployment, is flat at 16.5%
  • The average duration of unemployment is now 34.2 weeks, Median 22.2
  • 44.9% have been out of a job for longer than 27 weeks.
  • Birth/death adjustment just 7k, compared to 147k in June
  • The only silver lining: average hourly earnings up 0.2% to $22.59, even as total private hours increased from 34.1 to 34.2, as those employed have to do triple-duty
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