Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

New Home Sales Forecast

Courtesy of scriabinop23

Population Per New Home Sale

 

Here is a long run look at population divided by number of annual home sales.  From 1963 to 1995, there was a mean of 383.27 people in the US population per each new home built.  Starting in 1995, the number dropped from 394 people per home to a record 229 people per home in 2005 (the building peak).

Assuming this population per production # is mean reverting, and the extra new housing supply was borrowed from future demand, it can be easily forecasted how much was overbuilt starting in 1996 and how long it will take for long run oversupply to return back to zero. This model establishes that new housing sales continue at the 2010 current average rate of 322K/year, and the US population grows 3 million people per year going forward.  A netting out of long run oversupply does not occur until 2013.  After 2013, new home sales should run at population divided by 383.27, assuming long run averages hold, or approximately 840K builds and sales per year at 2014.

These numbers generally concur with the yield curve forecasting a meaningful recovery starting in 2013-2014, as housing supply returns to long run balance.

 

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!





You must be logged in to make a comment.
You can sign up for a membership or get a FREE Daily News membership or log in

Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!