Elliott Wave Update

September 6, 2010

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Elliott Wave Update

Courtesy of Allan

Below is a chart of Primary Wave 1 down which took place from the Fall of 2007 to the Spring of 2009. The SPX dropped about 50% in this wave and period. Primary Wave 2 up retraced a Fibonacci 62% of Primary Wave 1. The operative assumption is that the market has just recently entered Primary Wave 3 down.

SPX Daily Trend Model

Note how well the trend model captured most of this decline. That is what it is designed to do, capture big trends. It does get fooled in choppy, sideways periods, a small price to pay for riding the big ones up and down.

SPX Weekly Trend Model

Once again, the trend model captured most of the move, this time Primary Wave 2 up. When prices break below 1000, Primary Wave 3 down will be firmly in control. Since Wave 1 dropped prices 50%, expect at least the same from Wave 3 and probably more.

Below is an SPX Monthly chart going back 30 years. No EW labels or Fibonacci analysis, just the trend model. But more importantly, let’s apply my "Two-second Stock Analysis" to this chart. To refresh your memory, here are the rules:

(1) Look at any chart, any time frame, but for only 2 seconds (3 seconds if you are in California);

(2) While looking, answer this question: "Do you wish you already owned this stock?"

(3) If the answer is "Yes," then the stock is a Buy;

(4) If the answer is "No," then the stock is a Sell;

(5) If the answer is, "Can’t decide," move to California.

In other words, use the right side of your brain, your intuition, your gut feel, to tell you what to do. The right side of your brain,

".…is visual and processes information in an intuitive and simultaneous way, looking first at the whole picture then at the details. The other (the left brain) is verbal and processes information in an analytical and sequential way, looking first at the pieces then putting them together to get the whole."

SPX Monthly Trend Model

Time’s up. What does your right-brain analysis tell you?

*****

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here. For more details, read this introductory article.