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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Even Steve Wozniak, the Co-Founder of Apple, Made a Freudian Slip Extolling the Virtues and Inevitable Dominance of Android!

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

Sometimes people are just so honest and frank that you really have not choice but to give them credit. I happen to think that I am one of those people. There  (though there may be a few who disagree). Well, it appears as if i have come across another such person, with a statement you just don’t hear everyday from someone in his position. I have been touting the virtues of Android and how it will end up eating Apple’s lunch and anybody who follows me knows I have been keen on Google, via Android, knocking Apple off of its perch, see:

  1. The Mobile Computing and Content Wars: Part 2, the Google Response to the Paradigm Shift
  2. Android Now Outselling iOS? Explaining the Game of Chess That Google Plays in the Smart Phone Space
  3. Android is gaining preference as the long-term choice of application developers
  4. More of the Android Onslaught: Increasing Handset Revenues and Growth
  5. iSuppli Continues to Validate BoomBustBlog’s Original Thesis: Android as the Viral Game Changer!

It is one thing to have Reggie Middleton or BoomBustBlog warn of the Android eating Apple but it is a totally different matter when the actual co-founder of Apple itself (STEVE Wozniak) actually comes out and admits it. Check this out from Endgadget (hat tip to BoomBustBlogger & programmer extraordinaire Indy):

Woz then moved on to the topic of Android saying that Android smartphones, not the iPhone, would become dominant, noting that the Google OS is likely to win the race similarly to the way that Windows ultimately dominated the PC world. Woz stressed that the iPhone, “Has very few weak points. There aren’t any real complaints and problems. In terms of quality, the iPhone is leading.” However, he then conceded that, “Android phones have more features,” and offer more choice for more people. Eventually, he thinks that Android quality, consistency, and user satisfaction will match iOS.

Endgadget quickly published a piece stating that Woz was misquoted by the Dutch paper that initially printed the comment. Here’s how it went:

Woz says he gave the De Telegraaf reporter a lengthy demonstration of voice commands on iOS and Android, pointed out that Android offered the ability to say “Navigate to Joe’s Diner,” and suggested that Apple would catch up through its purchases of Siri and Poly9. According to Steve, that’s about it — he says he’d “never” say that Android was better than iOS, and that “Almost every app I have is better on the iPhone.” Woz did say he lightly prognosticated that Android would become more popular “based on what I’ve read,” but that he expects Android “to be a lot like Windows… I’m not trying to put Android down, but I’m not suggesting it’s better than iOS by any stretch of the imagination. But it can get greater marketshare and still be crappy.” He’s not shy, that Woz — listen to him say it all for yourself after the break.

After reading this, my first thought was hmmm… That was one hell of a misstatement. Endgadget actual had a stream of the interview here. After listening to it, I am still a little suspect, primarily because everything that he said positive about Android was absolutely true. He actually is in complete agreement with me regarding Android taking the path of Windows in the Windows vs  Apple battles of the 90’s and 90’s. I discussed it in detail in the post A Glimpse of the BoomBustBlog Internal Discussion Concerning the Fate of Apple:

The Mac OS actually had the first mover advantage and blew it doing the same thing that they are doing now, which was trying to fight the commodization of their cash cow platform by maintaining a totally vertical manufacturing and distribution channel – controlling software, hardware and firmware while refusing to license any portion out. The result was the proliferation of PC clones that drove the costs of computers considerably below $1000 per unit while Apple was charging up to $3000+ while having an inferior selection of 3rd party applications. Does this sound familiar??? Think of the growth of the Android platform to date.

It is absolutely amazing to hear the founder of Apple iterate such, even though he did attempt to backtrack some. Even with the back tracking, he still assets that Android will probably takeover the market as did Windows. Apple investors should take note, and look at MSFT’s revenues and profits as compared to Apple’s over that same time period. Even Steve Wozniack is implicitly endorsing Google as an investment! He also refers to voice commands, which is absolutely phenomenal and has no comparison in iOS.

Keep in mind this feature came out 2 entire revisions ago (a 3rd, major upgrade – Gingerbread – is due out any day now). In addition, stating that “almost every app I have is better on iOS” is not a glowing endorsement from the guy who literally started and owns the company makes iOS. Parsed semantically, it is an admittance that the  apps he doesn’t have, and cannot get are superior than what is available on the iPhone. Before anyone jumps on me for that analysis, take a look at the apps that are unique to Android and let me know if I have a point:

For the record, I use this app regularly on my HTC Evo, and it is not only quite multi-linguistic conversation starter, but literally amazing. I have muddled through conversations in Taiwanese, Mandarain, Hatian, Dutch, etc.

This is also a revolutionary product that is unique to Android in terms of full integration. It can be used indirectly on other platforms, but the Android implementation/integrations is far superior.

I invite all to take a look at the power and capability of Google Voice via their Youtube Channel.

Those of you who can’t see the potential in this will probably never be convinced, so I won’t even bother elaborating…

While the effects and templates are uber cool in this app, the reviewer failed to elaborate on what is by far the most notable feature of this Android camera replacement app, and that is the ability to set Android to record images nearly uncompressed in JPEG and at max resolution. On my HTC Evo, that is 3264×2448 pixels using the 8 MP camera. The highest settings create 5 to 7 mb files, but the pictures are absolutely phenomenal when taken in adequate lighting. I have had several professional photographers (as in more than 2) say that their next phone will definitely be an Android after seeing how this app combines with the Evo’s 4.3 inch screen and 8 mp camera. The range of real time processing settings and templates are very, very extensive as well.

So, does all of this Android stuff really make a difference? Let’s excerpt

.

Below is a graph showing the longer term trend of Apple market share in the smart phone space. It illustrates the explosive growth Apple has had through its iPhone series, and it also shows some seasonality (ex. lull before hardware upgrade season, etc.). As you can see, the growth trend, viewed either directly or as a moving average, shows marked downward momentum. Of course, it is highly unreasonable to expect a company to continue to grow at the pace that Apple has, but that is exactly what many Apple valuation models that I have come across have – literally hard-coded in. This is folly, in my opinion – particularly considering the effect of the Android competition that is already showing up. If you look closely, Apple’s smart phone market share is already showing NEGATIVE growth!



Since I know that the chart may be a little difficult to read at the tail end encompassing several years of data, I have taken the liberty to drill down to the past year to get a closer look. Remember, Android sales didn’t really get started until 8 months ago, and the big surge didn’t occur until the Evo/Droid X/Samsung Galaxy series were launched in June, July and August – most of which is not captured here. The same is to be said for Apple and the iPhone 4.

Click to enlarge to printer size!

Despite increases in both the overall mobile market and more importantly, the smart phone contingent’s penetration of said market:

  1. Apple’s smart phone shipments are showing a negative growth trend
  2. and more importantly, Apple’s smart phone market share is experiencing a very sharp downward trend as shown by both direct observation and that of the 2 period moving average.

The game has been changed ever since HTC released the Evo, which is essentially a networked pocket supercomputer. We outlined the technically superior features of HTC’s flagship phones in “A First in the Mainstream Media: Apple’s Flagship Product Loses In a Comparison Review to HTC’s Google-Powered Phone” as well as supplying a graphical comparison of the major Android handset releases compared to their most potent competition – Research in Motion Blackberries and the Apple iPhone:

Note to Subscribers, this chart takes precedent over the one included in the Apple business strategy document, Apple business model note. This also ties in with Apple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis Model.

This has not been lost on the market either, reference Big Money Starts to Dump Apple After I Warned of Margin Compression on CNBC Hours Before Apple Announced Compression Friday, November 12th, 2010 and Google’s 3rd Quarter Operating Results: The Foregone Conclusion That Was Amazingly Unanticipated by the Street!!! Monday, November 8th, 2010 and most importantly A Quick Peek Into the REAL WORLD Logic That Went Into Building the BoomBustBlog Apple Model: It’s Called Compression!!!Tuesday, October 19th, 2010

You see, I thought it was rather prescient to call margin compression, live on CNBC (3:40 into the video), just hours before Apple announced… Margin Compression… At a time when just about everyone who could spell Apple shouted Buy! Buy! Buy! Buy! Buy!!!

So, following up on the piece that I did just a few hours ago – Reggie Middleton Wasn’t the ONLY Openly Apple Bear in the Blogoshpere, Was He? along with this cute chart…

More on this topic…

  1. A Glimpse of the BoomBustBlog Internal Discussion Concerning the Fate of Apple
  2. Math and the Pace of Smart Phone Innovation May Take a Byte Out of Apple’s (Short-lived?) Dominance
  3. Apple on the Margin
  4. An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught
  5. After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play
  6. The BoomBustBlog Multivariate Research in Motion Valuation Model: Ready for Download
  7. The Complete, 63 pg Google Forensic Valuation is Available for Download
  8. iSuppli Continues to Validate BoomBustBlog’s Original Thesis: Android as the Viral Game Changer!
  9. BoomBustBlog Research Hits Another One Out the Park! Google up nearly 10% after hours, true blowout earnings unlike JPM
  10. As I Warned in June, DO NOT DISCOUNT Microsoft in This Mobile Computing War! Their Marketing Campaign is PURE GENIUS! and it Appears as if the Phone Ain’t Bad Either
  11. Reggie Middleton Wasn’t the ONLY Openly Apple Bear in the Blogoshpere, Was He?

As Forecast By BoomBustBlog Research, Android Surpasses All OS but Nokia’s and Apple and Android Displace Research in Motion

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