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Presenting The Twelve Things That Keep Niels Jensen Up At Night

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

In his December letter to investors, Niels Jensen from Absolute Return Partners has issued his twelve key risk factors for the global economy for 2012. “In the following I list a number of risk factors which I believe investors should give serious consideration, but I do not for one second pretend for that list to be exhaustive. Neither should you read anything into the order of which those risk factors are listed. If you want my assessment of how to rank the various factors, you need to take a look at the risk scatter chart at the end of the letter.” As always, an entertaining read, and as Jensen is a rather indicative example of the smart money, readers can determine for themselves what it is that keeps the hedge fund community up at night (aside from worries that the Feds will bust their door in any minute).

In summary, the dozen risks are the following:

  1. High yield priced for perfection?
  2. The risk of double dipping
  3. The sinking ship of Japan
  4. Beggar thy neighbour mentality
  5. Capital flows too hot to handle
  6. Chinese inflation out of control?
  7. Food inflation induced civil unrest
  8. Is India an accident waiting to happen?
  9. European contagion and solvency risk
  10. Massive refinancing programme
  11. Premature withdrawal of monetary support
  12. Israel launching a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities;

The matrix below shows the proability and impact of these 12 possible developments:

Full letter (pdf)

Attachment Size
ARP December.pdf 335.23 KB

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