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Thursday, March 28, 2024

The S&P 500 and DAX Are Way Outperforming the Plummeting Hang Seng and Bombay

Courtesy of Doug Short

How much longer will this last?

Here is the latest weekend snapshot of seven major world indexes. For the second consecutive week, the S&P 500 and DAX ended at new interim highs. In fact all the markets saw gains except the Bombay SENSEX, which is now 15.6% off its all-time high set last November, and the Hang Seng Index, which lost 5.42% from its previous weekly close on Wednesday, February 2 (the HSI was closed for Lunar New Year on the 3rd and 4th). The Shanghai Composite remains in the cellar, 18.55% off its interim high, even though it has gained 5.6% since its interim low on January 25.

The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500 and Bombay SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.

A Longer Look Back

Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Bombay, Hang Seng) is readily apparent. However the pattern has been in reversal over the past few months.


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