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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Long Euro Speculator Exodus Continues As Dollar Short Covering Pushes USD To First Net Positive Level Since January

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The most recent CFTC data is out and the results are in: momentum chasing FX speculators continue to retrench to exit positions, as the Euro long orgy, which as recently as May 3 hit a multi year record at 99.5k net long non-commercial contracts. Fast forward 4 weeks, and the recent plunge in the EURUSD has brought the exposure to just 19.1K contracts, the lowest since January 18, and a level prevalent in October and November of 2010. The 4 week drop is the biggest one month drop, as the momentum to the downside accelerates. Although it may still have a ways to go: the recent “support” is around -50k contracts. At this rate it will be hit in about 3 weeks. In the other camp we have the USD which saw short covering bring it to net non-spec exposure climb from -1,270 to 2,485, the first net positive exposure since January 2011. That said, with the EURUSD on the verge of breaching of 1.43, it seems that the great unwind is now over. A complete historical chart of non-commercial specs, and several other products, can be seen below.

And for those curious, here is the latest weekly update of the 2, 5 and 10 Year treasury exposure: there was some modest 10 year covering even as the net 2 Year position rose to a new high.

Lastly, here’s the speculative bonanza in silver. As always, purely in the eye of the beholder.

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