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Friday, March 29, 2024

Today’s Economic Data Docket – Another 400K+ Claims Number, Productivity, And Factor Orders

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Claims, productivity and factory orders.
 
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of May 28): Reversal of increase? Last week, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 424k after falling sharply over the previous two weeks. State-level details released this week may help clarify the source of that increase. Data for the week of May 28 are for a period after the payroll survey week, and therefore should not have a major impact on expectations for tomorrow’s Employment Report.
Median forecast (of 50): 417,000; last: 424,000.
 
8:30: Productivity and costs (Q1-Final): Upward revision. Revisions to nonfarm business output in the second Q1 GDP report imply a small upward revision to Q1 productivity growth, and a small downward revision to unit labor costs.
For productivity, median forecast (of 66) +1.7%; last (Q1-pre) +1.6%.
For unit labor costs, median forecast (of 54) +0.8%; last (Q1-pre) +1.0%.
 
10:00: Factory orders (April): Input for Q2 GDP. The monthly factory orders report will provide more detail on why new orders for capital goods weakened again in April (as initially reported in the advance report on durable goods). The release will also include estimates of manufacturing inventory accumulation during the month, and therefore may have an impact on expectations for Q2 GDP.
Median forecast (of 67) -1.0%; last +3.4%.

Trading Today (from Stone McCarthy)

At this point, market participants are already looking ahead to tomorrow morning’s Nonfarm Payrolls release for direction. Players will need to get through the Jobless Claims and Productivity and Unit Labor Costs figures early this morning, however, and the April Factory Orders release mid-morning. The Q1 Productivity numbers should be little changed from the previous estimate, but there may be a knee jerk reaction to the Jobless Claims release, especially considering how much attention the employment figures will be getting in general after the sharp miss in this morning’s ADP release.

The rally right through the close yesterday suggests few will have the fortitude to go into Friday’s Payrolls release short, which is likely to attract a little buying on dips today, particularly on any attempts to climb back above 3% on the 10-year note.

Using GS data

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