Courtesy of Doug Short.
Note from dshort: As I mentioned in my previous update, the bond market was already showing signs of anticipating Operation Twist, which was formally announced today by the Fed. In fact, in a set of FAQs released in conjunction with the FOMC minutes, the Fed itself acknowledged the phrase “operation twist” as a moniker for its “maturity extension program.” With the release of the FOMC minutes, the rally in selected maturities continued. The yield on the 10-year note hit an all-time closing low of 1.88. The 20-year bond closed at 2.69, an all-time low since it was reintroduced in 1993. As one would surmise from the Fed’s “twist” strategy, yields at the lower end rose.
The first chart shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. The source for the yields is the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates from the US Department of the Treasury and the New York Fed’s website for the FFR.
Here’s a closer look at the past year with the 30-year fixed mortgage added to the mix (excluding points).
Here’s a comparison of the yield curve at two points in time: 1) today’s close and 2) the daily close on the market’s interim high on April 29th. The S&P 500 is down nearly about 14% since then.
The next chart shows the 2- and 10-year yields with the 2-10 spread highlighted in the background.
The final chart is an overlay of the CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year Treasury Note (TNX) and the S&P 500.
The final chart shows the percent change for a basket of eight Treasuries since the initiation of the second round of quantitative easing on November 4th, 2010.
For a long-term view of weekly Treasury yields, also focusing on the 10-year, see my Treasury Yields in Perspective.
