Courtesy of Doug Short.
The 2012 rally picked up steam last week with the average gain of our basket of eight markets approximately doubling the average of the previous week. Europe was home to the best gains. The DAXK (i.e., the DAX ex dividends) was the week’s top performer, followed by the CAC 40 and FTSE 100. The S&P 500’s 2.17% gain earned fourth place. The Asia Pacific markets populated the bottom half with the Nikkei 225 as the only index with a negative weekly close, and a tiny one at that.
The adjacent table shows the 2012 year-to-date performance of our gang of eight. Three markets have achieved double-digit gains in brief space of 5 weeks. The DAXK has overtaken the BSE SENSEX for the lead with the Hang Seng not far behind in third place. The other five markets have healthy single-digit gains. Even the last place Nikkei 225 has averaged nearly a one-percent gain per week.
A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks
The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. I’ve also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.
The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.
A Longer Look Back
Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai, Hang Seng) is readily apparent.
Check back next weekend for a new update.
Note from dshort: At the suggestion of Joerg Willig, a finance professional in Germany, I replaced the DAX index, which includes dividends, with the price-only DAXK. This change levels the playing field, so to speak, for our international comparisons.
