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Swing trading portfolio – week of February 13th, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

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  1. SINA registered active users should be higher than expected, says Susquehanna
    Susquehanna attempted to estimate the active user base of SINA Weibo and used metric comparisons with Facebook, Tencent and Twitter. The firm concluded the fear that only 2-3 million users have been added per month is overdone and that total registered active users will be higher than expected. Shares are Neutral rated. :the

  2. Apple warned not to infringe ITV brand name, Telegraph reports
    ITV, Britain’s biggest commercial broadcaster, has written to Apple (AAPL) to warn it off using its three-letter name for the tech company's expected smart television offering, reported The Telegraph

  3. Pricing for ultrabooks won't hit 'sweet spot' until 2013, DigiTimes says
    The pricing "sweet spot" of around $599-$699 which is expected to drive higher demand of "ultrabook" notebook PCs is not expected to be met by most vendors until 2013, according to industry sources reporting to DigiTimes.

  4. Abercrombie & Fitch shares attractive at current levels, says Jefferies
    Jefferies believes shares of Abercrombie & Fitch are already pricing in bad news at current levels. The firm finds the stock very attractive for the rest of 2012 and keeps a Buy rating on Abercrombie with a $70 price target.

  5. Chinese authorities removing iPads from store shelves, DigiCha reports
    China's Administration of Industry and Commerce has started confiscating any iPads it finds for sale following the verdict of Apple's (AAPL) trademark infringement lawsuit with Proview, reports DigiCha, citing the Hebei Youth Daily. 

  6. US Steel downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc
    KeyBanc downgraded US Steel based on valuation. :t

  7. Marvell Technology downgraded to Hold from Buy at Benchmark Co.
    Benchmark Co. downgraded Marvell Technology citing valuation. :theflyonthew

  8. FSLR looking good for puts

  9. CREE getting hit

  10. AMZn being very uncooperative today.
    HERO- one of my favorite "cheap" stocks is moving today. The last few times it traded over 5 it was good for a run. I added some on Friday.

  11. FSLR weaker

  12. Ah, the safety of AZO

  13. SHLD weak as well

  14. RIG s printing an ugly candle

  15. SINA- I think this one is going on my do not trade list.

  16. Been getting some FSLR puts this morning. Will probably make it a position by the end of day, replacing AMZN.

  17. NFLX seems interesting as well for puts

    Trading SINA with the trend

  19. Opt – Are you closing out SINA today ?
    Also, I don't remember your rolling out the ARMH puts.  Are you still holding the FEBs ?

  20. Yes, closing SINA today. And you should roll everything to March at this point

  21. EL looking good for puts as well

  22. Could use something long- any suggestions?

  23. I bought a little KSS long today. I have been renting longs, selling them on the open waiting for the fall that never arrives and then forced to bite my lip and buy them back near the close

  24. I also have GOOG ,APPL and APA

  25. On the short side I have HRB, OPEN and VXX calls
    I also have a little short CAT, SPG and RIG combined to form 1 position.  Just not ready to make them full yet and choose

  26. though the trick seems to be to just buy anything red and keep buying until its green

  27. /OS Let's close both AMZN and ARMH puts before close, and replace them with FSLR and EL, both with 4% stop.

  28. English – thx, will try some GOOG.

  29. GILD may be ok for calls as well. 

  30. FSLR
    8:50 AM The solar sector looks set for a bloody day after Deutsche Bank and Citibank issue negative comments (previous) on the industry highlighted by the bombshell that Germany subsidy cuts might be even steeper than originally forecast. JA Solar (JASO) -3.9%, LDK Solar (LDK) -2.5%, and JinkoSolar (JKS) -2.6% have joined the cavalcade of solar names in the red in premarket trading.

  31. Germany solar policy likely worse than expected, says Deutsche Bank
    Deutsche Bank's industry checks indicate a worse than expected proposal to cut solar subsidies could get introduced at tomorrow's cabinet minister's meeting in Germany. Specifically, Deutsche is hearing an April subsidy cut of 15% is being discussed, along with a 2% monthly feed-in-tariff cut thereafter and 800-900KWh/KWp subsidy cap. Deutsche believes the potential for a negative Germany policy outcome could serve as a near-term overhang for solar stocks.

  32. /OS Sold 1/3 FSLR puts

  33. Great call on FSLR !
    A few days ago it looked to me like it was about to break to the upside.  Talk about a false move.

  34. APA about to break out of that flag.

  35. DE is breaking out

  36. I think APA earnings are on Thursday

  37. Good FSLR call Opt………..

  38. FSLR-Another example of the news being in the chart before it is out.

  39. FSLR- trading question for Opt/English or anyone else who may have a thought- When reducing position delta such as the case this morning with FSLR- I could either outright sell contracts to reduce my delta by 1/3 or roll down the entire position to a lower delta to achieve the same delta reduction. There are obvious pros/cons. Would appreciate comment.

  40. pstas, it does not really matter that much, but you should roll down if you can, especially when there is a big move like this and your options get so much in the money.

    What is important in any case is that you reduce your delta to 2/3 of your original delta, no matter what you have.

  41. Opt, Why reduce to 2//3

  42. thx opt- now just looking for some of that FSLR mojo to infect NFLX. Not looking healthy today for my puts.

  43. GLUU- sold a Sept $5 straddle today on the few remaining shares. My cost basis is zip but still good deal on a purchase at $4.15. Sell the straddle for $2.15- if called away 125%; if shares put to me- I would own twice the amount at avg of $3.55.

  44. jr_mints – Nice call on RIG.

  45. albo, I sold some puts on it about a month ago so I've been watching it very closely, covered yesterday and went short.

  46. Good move.  I'm still long some leaps which I trade against by writing OTM calls. 
    pstas -I've taken a similar approach to GLUU.  I'm short GLUU Jun 5 calls which I sold just before earnings.  On a pullback, (when Opt says buy, cause he's the man),  I'll prob sell some puts against that position.  Will also pick up some more shares to get back to full.  Who'd thought a little stock could be so profitable ?  Thx Opt !

  47. GLUU- yes, it has been a gift.
    LULU- this one looks so ready for a tumble. the RSI has been "oversold" for over a month.

  48. RIG bounce right off the 20d MA. 

  49. jr-mints, just because when we say that we sell 1/3 we actually reduce our delta to 2/3 of the original delta.

  50. GS for a short, anyone…..

  51. OK, thanks Opt.

  52. I had to get back in some small AMZN puts

  53. falls 2% following report of fewer than expected Prime subscribers

  54. Amazon estimates 3M-5M Prime subscriber as of Oct., Bloomberg says
    Analysts had estimated's (AMZN) Prime service already had 10M users, according to Bloomberg. :theflyonthew

  55. WLP and SWY look okay for calls

  56. Yes, that WLP looks great indeed.

  57. Is it time for the daily paint the close on no volume back above the 5dma

  58. AMZN seems to like those soft numbers

  59. Big support around here (1340ish). If it breaks we might have a change of direction in the market.

  60. That chart on AAPL is just amazing

  61. Also unreal is how the market comes back from weakness every afternoon.

  62. This is truly amazing to watch.

  63. the market gone Simple Jack on us

  64. Apple CEO presentation a positive catalysts, says Goldman
    CEO Tim Cook was the keynote speaker at Goldman's Technology & Internet Conference. The firm said Cook was confident on Apple's incremental growth opportunities, emerging market growth, tablet expansion, and iPhone share gains. The firm views the presentation as a positive catalyst for shares and reiterates its Conviction Buy rating and $600 price target. 

  65. Green Mountain February survey largely positive, says Longbow
    Longbow said brewer growth slowed at Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST) since promotions subsided following the holiday season and that K-Cup demand remained robust. The firm rates shares a Buy with a $93 price target. :theflyont

  66. Netflix CEO thinks U.S. subscribers could more than triple, electronista says
    Netflix's (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings suggested the company's U.S. subscriber base, which stands around 24.4M members, could grow over time to 60M-90M, reported electronista, citing a presentation originally given in November

  67. Potash inventories show massive agains, says Dahlman Rose

    Dahlman Rose said new producer inventory data indicates massive gains in potash inventories and slight declines phosphates. The firm expects Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS) and Intrepid Potash (IPI) shares to be pressured.

  68. Some analysts drop Apple to see broader market outlook, WSJ reports
    Because of Apple's (AAPL) enormous size, Wall Street is having a difficult time getting a big-picture view of the earnings and margins for other American corporations. As a result, some equity analysts are cutting Apple out and finding a dimmer outlook for the broader market, reports the Wall Street Journal

  69. APA earnings before the open tomorrow

  70. Go AAPL!

  71. AAPL is just insane

  72. funny how nothing has changed and no one wanted it at $380

  73. I don't know how many times I rolled higher during this move. Amazing.

  74. /OS Sold another 1/3 AAPL calls. 1/3 left.

  75. SWY still strong

  76. Would like to see GLUU come back down to the $3.60-$3.80 area.

  77. And just rolled the remaining AAPL calls again ;-)

  78. This just in- IBurrito will be launched soon :)

  79. I see that AAPL now accounts for 90% of the upside in the Nasdaq

  80. FIO- Opt/others- any comment for calls?

  81. english, nice call yesterday on SWY, wish I had of pulled the trigger.

    FFIV – Breaking out.
    CREE up nicely.

  83. the Amazonian princess is losing her slipper

  84. Interesting market action…

  85. Thats' some drop on AAPL.

  86. Those AMZN puts are working well now. Will make it a full position on a bounce.

  87. And will probably close the AAPL calls if we get confirmation of this shooting star doubled with a bearish engulfing.

  88. Just need to find a call or 2 then ;-)

  89. OPEN is strong today

  90. HES is good to go for calls

  91. I like ILMN but the options are not great

  92. XEC looks good as well

  93. XEC…that is parabolic…

  94. Apple's iPad 2 pulled from Amazon China store, Slash Gear reports
    Amazon China (AMZN) has pulled Apple's (AAPL) iPad 2 from sale after Chinese courts ruled Apple does not hold rights to the name, Slash Gear reports. Sales of the device continue on Apple's own online store in China as well as other third-party retailers, Slash Gear adds. The decision to pull the iPad 2 from sale on Amazon China was at Apple’s own request, Sina Tech reports, according to Slash Gear

  95. I read that a few days ago on a different site

  96. XCO also has accumulation happening FWIW.  Volatile buy seems to be ready to pop.

  97. Apple's China situation will ultimately be resolved, says Deutsche Bank
    Deutsche Bank expects Apple's China situation will ultimately be resolved with some type of monetary settlement.

  98. getting close to time for the 70 point DOW rally

  99. Pretty much done buying AMZN puts

  100. Buying some LAZ calls.

  101. Went with stock for now.

  102. AMZN-the 50MA is right there at $184.2

  103. Pharmboy – I've sold quite a few puts on XCO.  Stock is down significantly the last few months.  Wilbur Ross has accumulated a huge position at much higher prices and has bought more as recently as 2/6.  He now owns more than 14% of the stock.  Not bad company to be investing with, esp., at much lower prices.  Obviously a play on improvement in nat gas prices.

  104. OPT……………. LAZ full?     AMZN  what  stop?

  105. no option trades on LAZ today!!!!!!

  106. /OB So before close we want to make AMZN puts a full position. Let's also close APA calls as earnings are tomorrow, and let's open some MRVL calls with 3.5% stop.

  107. BAC short?

  108. Yes, forget about LAZ.

  109. 3.5% stop on AMZN

  110. OPEN keeps getting stronger

  111. OPT>
    MRVL full?
    What do you think on BAC puts?

  112. MRVL full yes. BAC why not

  113. /OB Let's also get some OPEN calls, with 4% stop.

  114. /OS And we are closing our last AAPL calls.

  115. OPT………. OPEN is far from it's 5 dma! what is the logic behind?

  116. ES bouncing on S1

  117. for the record.  I have been short OPEN for a while and will be closing out that short today. I don't need another long so will not add it as I added MRVL.  That being said, OPEN is strong today and the charts looks fine for a long shot

  118. WHy because it bounce from support? what are your thoughts ENGLISH

  119. but then again, so did SINA when it pulled the same crap

  120. I almost want to buy some AAPL puts here…

  121. Another crazy bounce?

  122. C'mon down GLUU.  Come back to your rightful owners.

  123. Opt- take a look at the daily chart for CRM. Is that one of those "shooting stars/engulfing candles" ?

  124. AAPL- I closed out the AAPL trade today and totaled things up – I netted a 4.8R profit overall. Could have been little better but I put on a ill-timed cover (short call) . Wondering if others did better than this?
    It was a great run.

  125. To clarify- looking for ideas on how to handle the trade differently to improve performance. Thanks,

  126. Moonves says CBS may produce new original series for Netflix, AllThingsD reports
    CBS (CBS) CEO Les Moonves said his company may end up producing an original show for Netflix (NFLX), though offered no further details, reported AllThingsD, citing his comments on the company's earnings call

  127. Goldman recommends avoiding NVIDIA
    Goldman recommends avoiding Nvidia given a slower ramp for Tegra, lack of design wins at tablet and handset OEMs, and 28nm yield issues. Shares are Neutral rated with a $14 price target.

  128. Qualcomm remains top pick for 2012, says Cowen
    Cowen raised its estimates for Qualcomm and called it their top pick for 2012 citing CDMA-based growth and QTL revenue. Shares are Outperform rated. :theflyon

  129. Green Mountain price target raised to $70 from $65 at BofA/Merrill
    BofA/Merrill citing the introduction of Keurig's new Vue brewer. Shares are Buy rated. :thef

  130. downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    Morgan Stanley downgraded (AMZN) citing the impact from Apple's (AAPL) product strength and the shift towards mobile devices, slowing unit volume growth,, and continued investment.

  131. /OS Sold 1/3 AMZN puts and rolled lower ;-)

  132. AMZN…nice Opt.

  133. OPT ….. nice call on AMZN.
    AAPL short looks good! 

  134. Go OPEN!

  135. Opt, great call on AMZN, now if OPEN can get through the 20dma we might be off to the races on that as well.

  136. BAC looks good for PUTS……..especially with todays rally on the stock !!!!!!!!!!!
    Also SILVER  PUTS….. SLV
    What do you think OPT?

  137. interesting the divergence in DE/ CAT, probably be a lot of spreaders going long DE and Short CAT soon, that is a very popular spread and I am sure some are felling the itch about now

  138. Not very exciting, but EBAY continues to work its way higher.  In same category, MSFT strong today.

  139. GS on fire today

  140. feels like one of those DOW up 275 days in the making

  141. all out of LAZ here, just had a little from yesterday before I stopped buying.  Good one

  142. sold a little MRVL as well

  143. Quite a day for unexciting stocks.  Two more – HPQ & JNJ.

  144. HPQ- Shoot, that is one I almost picked up yesterday 

  145. CREE – Sold some.  Stock up against the 200.

  146. will be hilarious if AAPL breaks through 525 tomorrow or later today

  147. Yeah, yesterday's shakeout was quite constructive.  Cool off the hot money crowd.

  148. Had to cover some MSFT leaps with OTM calls.  Prob too soon, but the move today is just nuts.

  149. With that AAPL move, makes me scared with AMZN, the hammer forming and volume coming in a bit higher, makes me think they will push this right back up.  I know following the rules is important, but me oh my…..

  150. AAPL bounced off the 9ma, interesting. We will resume our regularly scheduled uptrend momentarily.

  151. That is truly amazing of AAPL

  152. That being said, this chart is still bearish for now, even with that bounce.

  153. /OS Sold 1/3 MRVL calls. Good one.

  154. /OS Sold 1/3 OPEN calls

  155. Opt – I have a small position in FFIV calls.  Stock has closed above the 5MA the last two days and is currently trading above it.  Would have expected the stock to move up, but it hasn't.  Am looking to add on strength, if there is some, and am  currently thinking of placing a buy stop order above yesterday's high.  Does this make sense ?  Thanks.

  156. Yes, that makes a lot of sense. Wait for the break first.

  157. SPX back to the top of that flag.

  158. great move on OPEN today

  159. I jumped on OPEN today, but not until 47.50, so just hanging out here till 50 if it gets there to take some profit. I bought back a little AMZN puts on this $5 bounce to protect all of these call profits

  160. great day again!

  161. FSLR up big on SPWR earnings.

  162. Wynn Resorts valuation looks compelling, says Credit Suisse
    Credit Suisse said Wynn Resorts shares have lagged due to its rift with its largest shareholder and the recent informal SEC inquiry. The firm views valuation as compelling and reiterates its Outperform rating and $145 price target.

  163. OmniVision downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
    JP Morgan downgraded OmniVision based on valuation and lack of visibility. Price target is $16

  164. Deckers Outdoor should be bought ahead of Q4 results, says Jefferies
    Jefferies said it would be a buyer of Deckers Outdoor shares ahead of next Thursday's Q4 earnings report. The firm believes conservative 2012 guidance is a largely priced into the stock at current levels and thinks brand fears are overdone.

  165. First Solar jumps 11% after LA country approves construction permit :theflyonthewall.

  166. GS continues on the warpath

  167. KSS has been nice

  168. KSS and MRVL earnings on Wednesday and the markets closed on Monday I believe

  169. CMG new highs

  170. Pretty much all out of FSLR here as delta dropped pretty much to zero.

    I know it sounds crazy when ti is up 12% but almost want to reverse to long.

  171. OK, I did buy a couple FSLR calls, coupled with some SINA puts. Very small positions for those crazy stocks.

  172. Anyone looking at BIDU for a short ? I know its dangerous ..

  173. FSLR- Opt you lose me on that comment. Did you sell your puts? What do you mean about the delta to zero? Please explain. Thx.

  174. EL looks ready to break out

  175. URBN strong

  176. His puts lost so match value that their delta dropped very low and are no longer causing pain as the damage has been done at this point.  The benefit of options, when you are wrong you can limit the damage

  177. BIDU-Agreed

  178. Yes, the delta on the puts on FSLR got crushed overnight. Up 9% or 13% does not make much of a difference at some point. 

  179. Yes, the delta on the puts on FSLR got crushed overnight. Down 9% or 13% does not make much of a difference at some point. 

  180. So, you are just hanging on to the puts? Would you just close this out today assuming no change?

  181. If you still have some puts though with delta because you were more ITM, this is probably a good point to exit.

  182. Recording it as closed now in the spreadsheet.

  183. Unexciting Stock Update:  Today it's GE & INTC.

  184. OPEN getting hammered, any news

  185. 2/13/2012 9:32   single     buy        20           FSLR     42.55     12-Mar 43           put         4.1
    2/13/2012 12:27 single     buy        5             FSLR     41.58     12-Mar 43           put         4.7
    2/14/2012 8:35   single     sell         -8           FSLR     39.34     12-Mar 43           put         5.87
    2/14/2012 9:53   roll         sell         -17         FSLR     38.18     12-Mar 43           put         6.74
    2/14/2012 9:53   roll         buy        17           FSLR     38.18     12-Mar 39           put         4.17
    Don't mean to beat this to death but wondering if I may have missed something here. These are my transactions- purchased the puts then sold some and rolled down to the 39's which brought me down to 2/3 of my original delta.
    The table shows number of contracts; stock price at time of purchase and price of the option
    Would appreciate any comment.
    After hours would be fine if too busy for now.
    FIO making up for some of the other reversals- picked up some calls the other day.

  186. GLUU – Coming back to us.

  187. Here comes GLUU

  188. OPEN-I think it has been up so much, just retracing to the 5MA

  189. pstas, what I mean is that your 38 puts got their delta really down. When the stock is at $44, even if it moves another $1 your options are not going to move much. I always look at y exposure in terms of delta. We already reduced our delta to 2/3 of the original. Then, overnight, that delta got cut in 1/2 because of the move. You then find yourself with a very small position that will not change much unless there is a big move. Makes sense?

  190. nice turnaround in AMZN

  191. AMZN filled the gap

  192. Slowly adding some FSLR calls.

  193. Also bought some small AAPL puts. All of those are very small positions.

  194. OPEN really hit now

  195. OPT what SWING TRADING BOOK or SWING TRADING COURSE would you recomend in order for members to improve our trading?

  196. did your read the Van Tharp book? Specific books about swing trading will not teach you anything more.

  197. I read Trade your way to financial freedom! but i found it to be good for position sizing! what other book?

  198. Almost tempted to get back into APA…

  199. albo – did you do any nat gas plays ?  CHK ?

  200. Check out AMRN….This market is way too rigged.  Here we go again.

  201. anyone here in FTR ?

  202. FTR-yes

  203. partha – Yes, I have CHK Jan 13 Leaps, KWK stock and short puts, and XCO stock and short puts.  Do you have any?

  204. EBAY has been a trouble-free holding.

  205. Will close out FFIV today unless it rallies.  What a bummer.

  206. is AMZN really going to climb back over the 50dma here

  207. Annoying day but good week over all. Enjoy the long weekend!