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Swing trading portfolio – week of October 1st, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

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  1. U.S. equities poised to start the quarter firmer
    U.S. equities poised to start the quarter firmer after mixed global data and stocks. A heavy dose of dovish Fedspeak today from Chicago's Evans, SF's Williams and Chairman Bernanke could fuel some policy-related demand, while ISM and construction reports will be monitored later. Japan's N-225 sank 0.83% after the weak Tankan report, while HK, Chinese and S. Korean stocks were closed, though China's Sep PMIs turned higher (though still below 50). In Europe the Euro Stoxx 50 is over 1% higher as the dust continues to settle on Spain's efforts to restore its banking system, though eurozone unemployment reached a record high. The Dow is 63-points higher, S&P gained 6-points and NASDAQ rallied 14-points ahead of the opening bell. :theflyonthewall.com

  2. /OS Sold 1/3 AMZN calls.


  3. BIDU very weak


  4. Been adding a little bit of LNKD puts. Will make it a full position if it breaks out of this flag.


  5. Um…RIG!!!  Gosh I love that stock….


  6. NFLX..long looking chart.


  7. MMM – obnoxious spike up puts it at new high when corrected for last dividend.


  8. WFC….long chart as well.


  9. LNKD is wanting to reacquaint itslef with 115 and 110 on way to 105 and maybe visit with 100 again.


  10. /OS Sold last STX calls. All out.


  11. NASDAQ about to turn red.


  12. CMCSA – turning down..?


  13. CMCSA – maybe just dividend payout (today).


  14. OPEn's chart might actually turn bullish here. If it closes above the 50MA and 200MA, we will close the puts


  15. It would be funny (ironic) if AMZN tops out when we finally buy calls.


  16. SLV…rolling…over?  or going to break out?


  17. /OS Let's sell 1/3 OPEN puts before close.


  18. That's been a big bounce on OPEN since it hit support at $40..


  19. /OS Sold another 1/3 AMZN calls.


  20. GLUU at the 200.


  21. Bummer… liked the PCLN chart for a couple puts this morning better than I liked CMG. Hope somebody here caught that move.


  22. OPEN looks like it is setting up a right shoulder with this recent pop….


  23. AAPL at the 50dma


  24. Einhorn recommends Chipotle short position, GM, Cigna long positions
    Greenlight Capital CEO David Einhorn, during his presentation at the annual Value Investing Congress event in New York City, discussed a short position in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). Einhorn said the company is under significant competitive pressure, specifically from new menu items at Yum! Brands' (YUM) Taco Bell. Einhorn reiterated his short position in Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR), citing patent expirations and competitive pressures. Einhorn recommended long positions in General Motors (GM), which he thinks is undervalued because of an overreaction to sluggishness in Europe, and Cigna (CI), which Einhorn believes is trading for a discount compared to peers that themselves are undervalued. Notably, Einhorn said at the outset of the event that he would not be discussing Herbalife (HLF), which was widely speculated to be one of his short sale targets. Shares of Herbalife advanced during his time presenting, as did shares of lululemon (LULU), which Einhorn did not mention during the event though rumors had circulated that he might speak about it negatively. In early afternoon trading, shares of Chipotle sank 5.73% to $298.00, while GM advanced 1.69% to $23.48 and Cigna rose 1.23% to $48.68. :theflyonthewall.com

  25. GLUU- anyone see news to account for today's action?


  26. Don't see any news on GLUU.  Big volume tho.   Starting to uncover some stock.


  27. They were meeting with B. Riley today.


  28. Weird day today


  29. Who or what is B. Riley?


  30. Oh, I found it – Investment Bank. Interesting.


  31. U.S. equities are on slightly firmer footing
    U.S. equities are on slightly firmer footing after a better than expected ADP gain was offset by downward back revisions. Much still hangs in the balance in terms of Spain and China, with Spain PM Rajoy still on the fence over aid and after weaker China service sector readings. Stocks in Asia were mixed, with Japan's N-225 off 0.45%, while the HK Hang Seng rose 0.23% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is fractionally lower. The Dow gained 4-points, S&P is flat and NASDAQ rose 4-points in pre-open action, below earlier highs. In M&A news, Best Buy rallied nearly 3% after news its founder and private equity capitalists were mulling a $11 B buyout. MetroPCS surged over 3% on reports it will merge with T-Mobile. Google's Motorola Mobility also abruptly dropped a patent suit against Apple. Up next is ISM services index, which is forecast to sip slightly. :theflyonthewall.com

  32. DECK's chart might turn bullish here.


  33. NFLX looking good, broke the 50MA


  34. Opt – It looks to me like FFIV, LNKD, &  OPEN could all be forming bullish patterns.  What do you think?


  35. Yes, let's get rid of those LNKD puts. And let's give it another day to the other puts


  36. This has been a tough week.


  37. U.S. equities were bolstered
    U.S. equities were bolstered by global equities, which had a moderately positive session overnight heading into the ECB and BoE decisions, which were left unchanged in the end. Initial jobless claims rose less than expected and the ECB said that they believe the OMT has alleviated tensions. Yet focus remains on the cat and mouse game with Spain mulling its aid options and its debt auction, which saw borrowing costs decline. In Asia, the N-225 rallied 0.89%, while the Shanghai Comp gained 1.45%. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is fractionally firmer, while Spain IBEX and Italian MIB are essentially flat. The Dow is 59-points firmer, S&P rose 8-points and NASDAQ is 14-points higher, padding gains in pre-open action. Costco saw Sep same-store sales gain a solid 6%, Marriott beat the Street, but HP plunged 13% after offering bearish guidance. Factory orders are due next, then the FOMC minutes. :theflyonthewall.com

  38. COST looking good again


  39. OPEN has been extremely frustrating this week.


  40. /OS Sold last AMZN calls. All out for now.


  41. Euro touched resistance at 1.30.


  42. MMM has broken out of it's flag ceiling.


  43. NFLX has been crazy strong


  44. Yes, we will close last MMM if it closes like this.


  45. CMG looking weak here. 


  46. SBUX also weak


  47. Very frustrating, as things that appear to consolidate and break up or down, they do the opposite.  Seems like a lot of rotation in an out of things…..or do we call it HFT?


  48. SNDK looks good.


  49. Yes, Pharmboy. There is absolutely no trend sticking right now. Just have to wait to get out of this.


  50. /OB Let's buy back 2/3 AMZN calls before close.


  51. Really, they are buring premium in both directions….unless something is really strong, there is nothing to be had…..just being nimble.


  52. GLUU- trading down in sympathy :
    4:58 PM Zynga (ZNGA) warns it expects 2012 bookings of $1.085B-$1.1B, below already lowered guidance of $1.15B-$1.225B. The company expects Q3 revenue to reach $300M-$305M (above a $275.9M consensus), but forecasts bookings will amount to just $250M-$255M. Zynga blames weakness in games within its web "invest and express" category (e.g. FarmVille, CityVille). Also, an $85M-$95M write-down is being taken on the OMGPOP acquisition. Shares are halted, and will resume trading at 5.05PM ET.


  53. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 114k in September
    U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 114k in September. The 96k August gain was revised up to 142k, while July's 141k increase was bumped to 181k. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% versus 8.1%. Average hourly earnings edged up 0.3% after a flat reading in August. The workweek rose to 34.5 versus 34.4 previously. Private payrolls climbed 104k. Jobs in the goods producing sector fell 10k, while manufacturing declined 16k, and construction added 5k. Employment in the service sector rose 114k. Government jobs increased 10k. Household employment rebounded 873k. The civilian labor force increased 418k. This was a good report all the way around and should support gains on Wall Street and a rise in Treasury yields. :theflyonthewall.com
    08:33 EDT
    theflyonthewall.com: Futures barely react following jobs data
    Stock futures barely reacted following the release of the monthly jobs report. The report showed nonfarm payrolls grew by 114K jobs, versus the expectations for an increase of 115K jobs. Private payrolls grew by 104K jobs, versus the expected 130K jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%, versus last month’s 8.1%. :theflyonthewall.com

  54. GLUU – Time to nibble ?



  55. Opt – You and Pharm mentioned how stocks aren't trending.  A notable exception to that is GOOG.
    Been in quite an uptrend since July !


  56. GOOG-Yes, this has been impressive. Just an amazing trend.


  57. Interesting how VIX has just been going up since opening today.


  58. AAPL going for a test of the 50 again? Or maybe just a pin at 660.


  59. GLUU_Being patient here. Will wait for a bullish candle first.


  60. MDT – Finally has been strong lately.  Covering 1/2 my leaps. 


  61. Interesting…VIX did not lie earlier.


  62. Great day to finish an annoying week! Enjoy the weekend, everyone!