Archive for July, 2013

Comment by IncomeTrader

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  1. IncomeTrader
    March 14th, 2011 at 5:05 pm


    We will if the opportunity presents itself to put on a trade at a good risk reward level with decent premiums.

44 Facts About The Death Of The Middle Class That Obama Should Know

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As Obama parades around middle-America, promoting hope-and-change amid a “Better-Bargain for the middle-class,” it seemed only appropriate to lay out a few ‘facts’ before his next pronouncement…

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

What is America going to look like when the middle class is dead?  Once upon a time, the United States has the largest and most vibrant middle class in the history of the world.  When I was growing up, it seemed like almost everyone was “middle class” and it was very rare to hear of someone that was out of work.  Of course life wasn’t perfect, but most families owned a home, most families had more than one vehicle, and most families could afford nice vacations and save for retirement at the same time.  Sadly, things have dramatically changed in America since that time. 

There just aren’t as many “middle class jobs” as there used to be.  In fact, just six years ago there were about six million more full-time jobs in our economy than there are right now.  Those jobs are being replaced by part-time jobs and temp jobs.  The number one employer in America today is Wal-Mart and the number two employer in America today is a temp agency (Kelly Services).  But you can’t support a family on those kinds of jobs.  We live at a time when incomes are going down but the cost of living just keeps going up. 

As a result, the middle class in America is being absolutely shredded and the ranks of the poor are steadily growing.  The following are 44 facts about the death of the middle class that every American should know…

1. According to one recent survey, “four out of five U.S. adults struggle with joblessness, near poverty or reliance on welfare for at least parts of their lives”.

2. The growth rate of real disposable personal income is the lowest that it has been in decades.

3. Median household income (adjusted for inflation) has fallen by 7.8 percent since the year 2000.

4. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the middle class is taking home a smaller share of the overall income pie…
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Bearish Trades Initiated In Autodesk Options

Today’s tickers: ADSK, SODA & CBI

ADSK - Autodesk, Inc. – Shares in the maker of 2D and 3D design and engineering software are down more than 4.0% today at $35.01 as of 11:40 a.m. ET and options activity on the stock this morning suggests some traders are bracing for the price of the underlying to extend losses during the next couple of weeks. Trading traffic in Autodesk options is heaviest at the Aug $34 strike where upwards of 2,900 puts have changed hands against open interest of 757 contracts. Time and sales data suggests most of the volume was purchased during morning trading for an average premium of $0.33 apiece. Put buyers may profit at expiration next month in the event that ADSK shares slide 3.8% from the current price of $35.01 to breach the average breakeven point on the downside at $33.67. The August expiry put options were also trading heavily during Tuesday’s session. It looks like a roughly 1,900-lot Aug $33/$35 put spread was purchased yesterday at an average net cost of $0.25 per contract. The bearish spread may generate maximum potential profits of $1.75 per contract if shares in Autodesk drop 5.7% to $33.00 by August expiration. The cost of initiating the same Aug $33/$35 put spread has roughly doubled overnight to $0.60 per spread as of the time of this writing.

SODA - Sodastream International Ltd. – Bullish options are active on Sodastream today following the company’s better than expected second-quarter earnings report released ahead of the open this morning. Shares in the name jumped more than 16% to $67.81 after the company raised its full year revenue forecast and posted higher than estimated second-quarter results. Traders positioning for shares in SODA to continue higher during the next couple of sessions snapped up weekly calls on the…
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Comment by ilene

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  1. ilene
    July 18th, 2011 at 4:28 am

     Hi Snow, what do you do in biology?  Here’s an article you might find interesting (also posted in the Favorites):  - Ilene 

Investors Keep Their Feet on the Ground

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Investors remained realistic on Wednesday, despite an impressive GDP, better-than-expected private payroll numbers and no taper announcement.

Investors managed to resist mania on Wednesday after impressive economic data combined with a decision from the Federal Reserve’s Federal stocks, ETF, Daily Market Wrap, SPX, SPX Chart, NYSEARCA:DIA, NYSEARCA:SPY, NASDAQ:QQQ, NYSEARCA:IWM, NYSEARCA:USOOpen Market Committee to delay the dreaded taper its bond-buying.  Stocks held close to Tuesday’s closing prices and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) – also known as the “fear index” – inched upward by 45 basis points, despite economic data which would have sent investors into a euphoric “risk on” mode only a month earlier. 

The market finally seemed to get a grip on its bipolar disorder, with the realization that stocks have reached fair value.  The Relative Strength Index for the S&P 500 has been in the 60s for nearly a month.  An RSI above 70 is seen as an “overbought” signal.  Investors finally seem content with the fact that everything is okay.  No need to go nuts – at least not today.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that during the second quarter of 2013, the American economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.7 percent.  Economists were expecting to see expansion at a rate of only one percent.

The ADP National Employment Report for July indicated that private sector payrolls increased by 200,000, beating expectations of an increase by 180,000 jobs.  Beyond that, the June figure was revised upward from 188,000 new jobs to 198,000.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) lost 21 points to finish Wednesday’s trading session at 15,499 for a 0.14 percent decline.  The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) dipped 0.01 percent to 1,685.  (It’s been closing at 1,685 all week.  The only changes have been with the fractions.)

The Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ) advanced 0.16 percent to finish at 3,090.  The Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) rose 0.17 percent to close at 1,045.

In other major markets, oil (NYSEARCA:USO) soared 1.88 percent to close at $37.36.

On London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange, September futures for Brent crude oil  advanced by 91 cents (0.85 percent) to $107.82/bbl. (NYSEARCA:BNO).

August Gold Futures advanced by $13.10 (1.00 percent) to $1,325.50 per ounce (NYSEARCA:GLD).

Read “Are Gold Stocks on the Cusp of an Upswing?”

Transports returned to…
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Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Valid until the market close on August 30, 2013

The S&P 500 closed July with a monthly gain of 4.95%. All three S&P 500 MAs and three of the five the Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling “Invested”.

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I’ve also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy, three of which (IEF and DBC) are signaling “cash” for the benchmark 10-month MA and two for the 12-month MA alternate strategy.

Backtesting Moving Averages

Monthly Close Signals Over the past few years I’ve used Excel to track the performance of various moving-average timing strategies. But now I use the backtesting tools available on the website. Anyone who is interested in market timing with ETFs should have a look at this website. Here are the two tools I most frequently use:

Background on Moving Averages

Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold the index. When the index closes below, you move to cash. The disadvantage is that it never gets you out at the top or back in at the bottom. Also, it can produce the occasional whipsaw (short-term buy or sell signal), such as we’ve occasionally experienced over the past year.

Nevertheless, a chart of the S&P 500 monthly closes since 1995 shows that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average (SMA) strategy would have insured participation in most of the upside price movement while dramatically reducing losses.

The 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) is a slight variant on the simple moving average. This version mathematically increases the weighting of newer data in the 10-month sequence. Since 1995 it has produced fewer whipsaws than the equivalent simple moving average, although it was a month slower to signal a sell after these two market tops. …
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Treasury Snapshot: Yields and 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Are Off Their Intra-month Highs

Courtesy of Doug Short.

What’s New: I’ve updated the charts below through the July close. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 2.60%, 13 bps off its interim high on July 5th.

The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, published yesterday, puts the 30-year fixed at 4.31%, 20 bps off its interim high two weeks ago, although we’ll get a new weekly update tomorrow.

Here is a snapshot of the 10-year yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage since 2008.

A log-scale snapshot of the 10-year yield offers a more accurate view of the relative change over time. Here is a long look since 1965, starting well before the 1973 Oil Embargo that triggered the era of “stagflation” (economic stagnation with inflation). I’ve drawn a trendline connecting the interim highs following those stagflationary years. The red line starts with the 1987 closing high on the Friday before the notorious Black Monday market crash. The S&P 500 fell 5.16% that Friday and 20.47% on Black Monday.

Here is a long look back, courtesy of a FRED graph, of the Freddie Mac weekly survey on the 30-year fixed mortgage, which began in May of 1976.

A Perspective on Yields Since 2007

The first chart shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. The source for the yields is the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates from the US Department of the Treasury and the New York Fed’s website for the FFR.



Now let’s see the 10-year against the S&P 500 with some notes on Federal Reserve intervention. Fed policy has been a major influence on market behavior. It will be interesting to see how the index fares in as Q2 earnings season opens and the market potentially reassesses its dependency on Fed easing that might be nearing an inflection point.



For a long-term view of weekly Treasury yields, also focusing on the 10-year, see my Treasury Yields in Perspective, which I update on weekends.





Comment by IncomeTrader

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  1. IncomeTrader
    December 30th, 2010 at 10:16 am



    We like the " Thinkorswim" platform which is also part of Ameritrade. Depending on your account size you  can negotiate them down to about  $.50 per contract or lower.

    We are not active traders so commission fees should be a small part of your overall cost.

Dylan Grice On The Intrinsic Value Of Gold, And How Not To Be A Turkey

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Dylan Grice, of Edelweiss Holdings

On The Intrinsic Value Of Gold, And How Not To Be A Turkey

One thing we’ve learned in our time in the investment industry is that people love things that go up. They also hate things that go down, albeit with more intensity. So when gold was going up in every consecutive one of the last twelve years, people quite liked it. But today its price is going down and people don’t like it anymore. Actually, its price has gone down by quite a lot, with the second quarter of 2013 seeing the biggest percentage price decline since the collapse of Bretton Woods. Its price is now back to where it was in the summer of 2010, leaving anyone buying the metal in the last three years, in paper terms at least, under water. It’s not so much that people don’t like gold anymore—it’s that they hate it.

Of course, this makes gold more interesting than it has been in many years. There is blood on the streets. Asset write-downs in the gold mining industry abound. The South African mining body says sixty percent of that country’s mine production is unprofitable at today’s prices. Richard Russell has fittingly described gold as a “stairway to hatred.” So against our better  judgment, despite the trepidation one feels before discussing gold, and mindful that the last thing the world needs is another opinion on gold, we nevertheless venture our own in the paragraphs below. In doing so, we will try to focus on what we know, leaving the speculation over what did or didn’t cause the recent price drop to others. But before we do, let’s consider the following story taken from the current book of the moment here in the Edelweiss office, Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile (from which we’ve stolen the title to this piece). It is about a turkey, unaware of Thanksgiving, using past data to make future projections:

A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to its staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys “with increased statistical confidence.” The butcher will keep feeding the turkey until a few days before thanksgiving. Then comes that day when it is really not a very good idea to

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Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil
    July 3rd, 2011 at 9:15 pm

    Picks/Petronick – Those were the prices at the time.  Of course they are subject to change depending on wherever we open.  If it’s less than you wanted – then don’t sell them.  Also, never accept the bid – it’s a BID, you don’t have to accept it, that’s why there’s also an ask price.  Smart people ASK for more money and, if you don’t get the price you want, then you can move on and sell something else – we always seem to find something else to trade, don’t we?  

    Patience is always the key, we look at many, many trade ideas so why should you ever fill one that isn’t giving you a good price.  It may not seem like much but .05 here and there 20 times is a whole dollar’s worth of profits you flush down the tubes if you let them walk all over you every time you enter and exit a transaction.  


Phil's Favorites

Corporate boards are supposed to oversee companies but often turn a blind eye


Corporate boards are supposed to oversee companies but often turn a blind eye

Courtesy of Siri Terjesen, American University Kogod School of Business

A lot of giant companies are getting into big trouble these days.

When Boeing 737 Max aircraft crashed in Indonesia and Ethiopia, killing a total of 346 people in October 2018 and March 2019, the disasters raised serious questions about the safety of the aviation leader’s anti-stall system.

When some 5,000 Wells Fargo employees fra...

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Zero Hedge

iPhone X Sales Collapse Triggers Serious Breach Of Contract With Samsung 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In an exclusive, ChannelNews reveals Apple is facing hundreds of millions of dollars in penalty payments to Samsung because iPhone demand has fallen.

Apple "demanded" that Samsung construct one of the world's biggest OLED manufacturing facilities exclusively for iPhone screens.


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Wilshire 5000 Creating A Triple Top? An Important Breakout Test Is In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The stock market has been on fire of late, rallying up to the edge of price resistance on several indexes. Today, we look at one of those stock market indexes: the Wilshire 5000.

The Wilshire 5000 tracks all of the stocks in the US market, so it is a broad-based index that carries significant importance when gauging the health of the overall US stock market.

Looking at the long-term “weekly” chart above, it is pretty clear that the index is at an important price juncture.

The Wilshire 5000 spent the last 25 years trading within a rising price channel (1)...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Upgrades Deere, Cites 'Significantly Improved Farmer Income Outlook'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Farmer buying power will remain pressured for 2019, but this will change for the better next year and will help support Deere & Company (NYSE: DE), according to Jefferies.

The Analyst

Jefferies' Stephen Volkmann upgraded Deere from Hold to Buy with a price target lifted from $150 to $190.... more from Insider

Chart School

Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.

This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.

Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT). 

To see when water company's (and such like) are nearing the crazy FANG like valuations a review of the Dow Jones Utility Index channel shows us how history can repeat. The c...

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The "Tesla Killer" Car Is Nowhere In Sight


The “Tesla Killer” Car Is Nowhere In Sight

By Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

Here’s some catnip for the Tesla bulls on this email list: my analyst, Kevin DeCamp, a longtime TSLA shareholder and car owner, took a test drive of the Jaguar I-PACE and, while it “looks great and is fun to drive… it is lacking in a few areas where Tesla really shines.” He concludes that “Tesla may end up killing itself, but the “Tesla killer” car is nowhere in sight.”

The Tesla Killer Hasn’t Arrived Yet: My Test Drive of the Jaguar I-PACE

By Kevin DeCamp

As a long-time, devoted Tesla...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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