Archive for July, 2013

Comment by IncomeTrader

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  1. IncomeTrader
    March 14th, 2011 at 5:05 pm

    amatta-

    We will if the opportunity presents itself to put on a trade at a good risk reward level with decent premiums.







44 Facts About The Death Of The Middle Class That Obama Should Know

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As Obama parades around middle-America, promoting hope-and-change amid a “Better-Bargain for the middle-class,” it seemed only appropriate to lay out a few ‘facts’ before his next pronouncement…

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

What is America going to look like when the middle class is dead?  Once upon a time, the United States has the largest and most vibrant middle class in the history of the world.  When I was growing up, it seemed like almost everyone was “middle class” and it was very rare to hear of someone that was out of work.  Of course life wasn’t perfect, but most families owned a home, most families had more than one vehicle, and most families could afford nice vacations and save for retirement at the same time.  Sadly, things have dramatically changed in America since that time. 

There just aren’t as many “middle class jobs” as there used to be.  In fact, just six years ago there were about six million more full-time jobs in our economy than there are right now.  Those jobs are being replaced by part-time jobs and temp jobs.  The number one employer in America today is Wal-Mart and the number two employer in America today is a temp agency (Kelly Services).  But you can’t support a family on those kinds of jobs.  We live at a time when incomes are going down but the cost of living just keeps going up. 

As a result, the middle class in America is being absolutely shredded and the ranks of the poor are steadily growing.  The following are 44 facts about the death of the middle class that every American should know…

1. According to one recent survey, “four out of five U.S. adults struggle with joblessness, near poverty or reliance on welfare for at least parts of their lives”.

2. The growth rate of real disposable personal income is the lowest that it has been in decades.

3. Median household income (adjusted for inflation) has fallen by 7.8 percent since the year 2000.

4. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the middle class is taking home a smaller share of the overall income pie…
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Bearish Trades Initiated In Autodesk Options

Today’s tickers: ADSK, SODA & CBI

ADSK - Autodesk, Inc. – Shares in the maker of 2D and 3D design and engineering software are down more than 4.0% today at $35.01 as of 11:40 a.m. ET and options activity on the stock this morning suggests some traders are bracing for the price of the underlying to extend losses during the next couple of weeks. Trading traffic in Autodesk options is heaviest at the Aug $34 strike where upwards of 2,900 puts have changed hands against open interest of 757 contracts. Time and sales data suggests most of the volume was purchased during morning trading for an average premium of $0.33 apiece. Put buyers may profit at expiration next month in the event that ADSK shares slide 3.8% from the current price of $35.01 to breach the average breakeven point on the downside at $33.67. The August expiry put options were also trading heavily during Tuesday’s session. It looks like a roughly 1,900-lot Aug $33/$35 put spread was purchased yesterday at an average net cost of $0.25 per contract. The bearish spread may generate maximum potential profits of $1.75 per contract if shares in Autodesk drop 5.7% to $33.00 by August expiration. The cost of initiating the same Aug $33/$35 put spread has roughly doubled overnight to $0.60 per spread as of the time of this writing.

SODA - Sodastream International Ltd. – Bullish options are active on Sodastream today following the company’s better than expected second-quarter earnings report released ahead of the open this morning. Shares in the name jumped more than 16% to $67.81 after the company raised its full year revenue forecast and posted higher than estimated second-quarter results. Traders positioning for shares in SODA to continue higher during the next couple of sessions snapped up weekly calls on the…
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Comment by ilene

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  1. ilene
    July 18th, 2011 at 4:28 am

     Hi Snow, what do you do in biology?  Here’s an article you might find interesting (also posted in the Favorites):  http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/investment_manager.html  - Ilene 







Investors Keep Their Feet on the Ground

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Investors remained realistic on Wednesday, despite an impressive GDP, better-than-expected private payroll numbers and no taper announcement.

Investors managed to resist mania on Wednesday after impressive economic data combined with a decision from the Federal Reserve’s Federal stocks, ETF, Daily Market Wrap, SPX, SPX Chart, NYSEARCA:DIA, NYSEARCA:SPY, NASDAQ:QQQ, NYSEARCA:IWM, NYSEARCA:USOOpen Market Committee to delay the dreaded taper its bond-buying.  Stocks held close to Tuesday’s closing prices and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) – also known as the “fear index” – inched upward by 45 basis points, despite economic data which would have sent investors into a euphoric “risk on” mode only a month earlier. 

The market finally seemed to get a grip on its bipolar disorder, with the realization that stocks have reached fair value.  The Relative Strength Index for the S&P 500 has been in the 60s for nearly a month.  An RSI above 70 is seen as an “overbought” signal.  Investors finally seem content with the fact that everything is okay.  No need to go nuts – at least not today.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that during the second quarter of 2013, the American economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.7 percent.  Economists were expecting to see expansion at a rate of only one percent.

The ADP National Employment Report for July indicated that private sector payrolls increased by 200,000, beating expectations of an increase by 180,000 jobs.  Beyond that, the June figure was revised upward from 188,000 new jobs to 198,000.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) lost 21 points to finish Wednesday’s trading session at 15,499 for a 0.14 percent decline.  The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) dipped 0.01 percent to 1,685.  (It’s been closing at 1,685 all week.  The only changes have been with the fractions.)

The Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ) advanced 0.16 percent to finish at 3,090.  The Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) rose 0.17 percent to close at 1,045.

In other major markets, oil (NYSEARCA:USO) soared 1.88 percent to close at $37.36.

On London’s ICE Futures Europe Exchange, September futures for Brent crude oil  advanced by 91 cents (0.85 percent) to $107.82/bbl. (NYSEARCA:BNO).

August Gold Futures advanced by $13.10 (1.00 percent) to $1,325.50 per ounce (NYSEARCA:GLD).

Read “Are Gold Stocks on the Cusp of an Upswing?”

Transports returned to…
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Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Valid until the market close on August 30, 2013

The S&P 500 closed July with a monthly gain of 4.95%. All three S&P 500 MAs and three of the five the Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling “Invested”.

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I’ve also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy, three of which (IEF and DBC) are signaling “cash” for the benchmark 10-month MA and two for the 12-month MA alternate strategy.


Backtesting Moving Averages

Monthly Close Signals Over the past few years I’ve used Excel to track the performance of various moving-average timing strategies. But now I use the backtesting tools available on the ETFReplay.com website. Anyone who is interested in market timing with ETFs should have a look at this website. Here are the two tools I most frequently use:

Background on Moving Averages

Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold the index. When the index closes below, you move to cash. The disadvantage is that it never gets you out at the top or back in at the bottom. Also, it can produce the occasional whipsaw (short-term buy or sell signal), such as we’ve occasionally experienced over the past year.

Nevertheless, a chart of the S&P 500 monthly closes since 1995 shows that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average (SMA) strategy would have insured participation in most of the upside price movement while dramatically reducing losses.

The 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) is a slight variant on the simple moving average. This version mathematically increases the weighting of newer data in the 10-month sequence. Since 1995 it has produced fewer whipsaws than the equivalent simple moving average, although it was a month slower to signal a sell after these two market tops. …
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Treasury Snapshot: Yields and 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Are Off Their Intra-month Highs

Courtesy of Doug Short.

What’s New: I’ve updated the charts below through the July close. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 2.60%, 13 bps off its interim high on July 5th.

The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, published yesterday, puts the 30-year fixed at 4.31%, 20 bps off its interim high two weeks ago, although we’ll get a new weekly update tomorrow.



Here is a snapshot of the 10-year yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage since 2008.

A log-scale snapshot of the 10-year yield offers a more accurate view of the relative change over time. Here is a long look since 1965, starting well before the 1973 Oil Embargo that triggered the era of “stagflation” (economic stagnation with inflation). I’ve drawn a trendline connecting the interim highs following those stagflationary years. The red line starts with the 1987 closing high on the Friday before the notorious Black Monday market crash. The S&P 500 fell 5.16% that Friday and 20.47% on Black Monday.

Here is a long look back, courtesy of a FRED graph, of the Freddie Mac weekly survey on the 30-year fixed mortgage, which began in May of 1976.

A Perspective on Yields Since 2007

The first chart shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. The source for the yields is the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates from the US Department of the Treasury and the New York Fed’s website for the FFR.

 

 

Now let’s see the 10-year against the S&P 500 with some notes on Federal Reserve intervention. Fed policy has been a major influence on market behavior. It will be interesting to see how the index fares in as Q2 earnings season opens and the market potentially reassesses its dependency on Fed easing that might be nearing an inflection point.

 

 

For a long-term view of weekly Treasury yields, also focusing on the 10-year, see my Treasury Yields in Perspective, which I update on weekends.

 

 

 

 





Comment by IncomeTrader

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  1. IncomeTrader
    December 30th, 2010 at 10:16 am

    dmci

     

    We like the " Thinkorswim" platform which is also part of Ameritrade. Depending on your account size you  can negotiate them down to about  $.50 per contract or lower.

    We are not active traders so commission fees should be a small part of your overall cost.







Dylan Grice On The Intrinsic Value Of Gold, And How Not To Be A Turkey

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Dylan Grice, of Edelweiss Holdings

On The Intrinsic Value Of Gold, And How Not To Be A Turkey

One thing we’ve learned in our time in the investment industry is that people love things that go up. They also hate things that go down, albeit with more intensity. So when gold was going up in every consecutive one of the last twelve years, people quite liked it. But today its price is going down and people don’t like it anymore. Actually, its price has gone down by quite a lot, with the second quarter of 2013 seeing the biggest percentage price decline since the collapse of Bretton Woods. Its price is now back to where it was in the summer of 2010, leaving anyone buying the metal in the last three years, in paper terms at least, under water. It’s not so much that people don’t like gold anymore—it’s that they hate it.

Of course, this makes gold more interesting than it has been in many years. There is blood on the streets. Asset write-downs in the gold mining industry abound. The South African mining body says sixty percent of that country’s mine production is unprofitable at today’s prices. Richard Russell has fittingly described gold as a “stairway to hatred.” So against our better  judgment, despite the trepidation one feels before discussing gold, and mindful that the last thing the world needs is another opinion on gold, we nevertheless venture our own in the paragraphs below. In doing so, we will try to focus on what we know, leaving the speculation over what did or didn’t cause the recent price drop to others. But before we do, let’s consider the following story taken from the current book of the moment here in the Edelweiss office, Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile (from which we’ve stolen the title to this piece). It is about a turkey, unaware of Thanksgiving, using past data to make future projections:

A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to its staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys “with increased statistical confidence.” The butcher will keep feeding the turkey until a few days before thanksgiving. Then comes that day when it is really not a very good idea to


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Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil
    July 3rd, 2011 at 9:15 pm

    Picks/Petronick – Those were the prices at the time.  Of course they are subject to change depending on wherever we open.  If it’s less than you wanted – then don’t sell them.  Also, never accept the bid – it’s a BID, you don’t have to accept it, that’s why there’s also an ask price.  Smart people ASK for more money and, if you don’t get the price you want, then you can move on and sell something else – we always seem to find something else to trade, don’t we?  

    Patience is always the key, we look at many, many trade ideas so why should you ever fill one that isn’t giving you a good price.  It may not seem like much but .05 here and there 20 times is a whole dollar’s worth of profits you flush down the tubes if you let them walk all over you every time you enter and exit a transaction.  







 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Legal cannabis celebrates its first anniversary in Canada: What's next?

 

Legal cannabis celebrates its first anniversary in Canada: What's next?

Montrealers hold up a Canadian flag with a marijuana logo on it outside a government cannabis store in the city Oct. 17, 2018. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes

Courtesy of Michael J. Armstrong, Brock University

This week marks the first anniversary of Canada’s recreational cannabis legalization. It’s an appropriate time to review what happened last year and consider what’s coming next.

Legalization brought big changes for some folks. About 9,200 employees now work at cannabis producers, with ...



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Zero Hedge

Pork-Panic Sends China CPI To 6 Year Highs As Factory Deflation Deepens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

China's producer prices deflated for the 3rd straight month, slumping 1.2% YoY - the biggest deflationary impulse since July 2016 - but, thanks to the explosion in pork prices (as 'pig ebola' spreads), Chinese consumers are facing the worst inflation since 2013.

  • China Sept CPI +3.0% YoY (2.9% exp and 2.9% prior)

  • China Sept PPI -1.2% YoY (-1.2% exp and -0.8% prior)

...



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Chart School

Review of Andrew CardWell RSI with Wyckoff price waves

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RSI measures relative strength of price action of a set period versus prior set periods. It helps review the price swings or waves, the power of each price thrust into new ground, or lack of it. Price thrust like many things relies on energy, and energy is not a constant, it has a birth, a life and a death and relative strength helps us see that cycle. 

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks Should Send Critical Message To Stocks This Week!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Bank earnings could go a long way to impacting the broad market in a big way this week. Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank Of America, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley all announce earning the next couple of days.

As these earning announcements are to take place, the Bank Index (BKX) finds itself facing a key breakout test.

The index remains inside of bullish rising channel (1), as it has created a series of higher lows and higher highs over the past 8-years.

The index has little to brag about over the past 20-months, as it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of falling chan...



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The Technical Traders

Daily Market Analysis and Trade Setups

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CLICK HERE TO GET REAL TIME TRADE ALERTS!

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Insider Scoop

22 Healthcare Stocks Moving In Tuesday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Reata Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: RETA) stock surged 45.2% to $146.07 during Tuesday's pre-market session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $2.8 billion. The most recent rating by Cantor Fitzgerald, on October 15, is at Overweight, with a price target of $180.00.
  • Aphria, Inc. (NYSE: APHA) stock increased by 18.6% to $5.16. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $1.8 billion. According to the most recent rating by CIBC, on July 26, the current rating is at Underperformer.
  • ...


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Digital Currencies

Zuck Delays Libra Launch Date Due To Issues "Sensitive To Society"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Facebook is taking a much more careful approach to Libra than its previous projects, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has confirmed. 

“Obviously we want to move forward at some point soon [and] not have this take many years to roll out,” he said. “But ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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