Archive for August, 2013

Unidentified Marine Sums It All Up

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Presented with no comment…

 

(via @NewsNinja2012)

 

whether or not this is a real member of the US armed forces is unknown but we suspect it sums up many of their perspectives as Obama punts to Congress.





Guest Post: If The Syria Issue Were An ‘SNL’ Skit

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Jim VandeHei, originally posted at Politico,

The Ironic War Plan

Imagine Dick Cheney in a “Saturday Night Live” skit fantasizing about Barack Obama handling the pressures of going to war.

Cheney’s sitting there, yucking it up with Rummy and the boys, eating yellow cake. He laughs off his own reckless rush to an unwinnable war fought on flawed grounds. His thought bubble pops up.

Obama would be droning on about the complexities of Syria, the limits of U.S. power in the region, the danger of action and the wisdom of caution.

He would promise swift action only if true red lines were crossed. The deaths of 100,000 people would not be one of them.

He would feel self-conscious about looking weak, so he would talk to those in the press who truly understand his complex views. In doing so, he would spring a surprise on his advisers and say the movement of or use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime would be the trigger to “change my calculus.”

His staff would leak that it was improvised, so even it didn’t know if it was real.

Syria would then cross that red line, using chemical weapons in defiance of Obama and other leaders of civilized nations, a provocation the president simply could not ignore.

So Obama would promise swift, decisive action. But not until aides leak to the media that he doesn’t really want to do it.

Obama would know his anti-war base on the left would simply hate another war based on allegations of weapons of mass destruction.

So he would promise swift but very limited action. Of course, he won’t topple the regime like that crazy Bush did in Iraq, his staff would privately explain to the press. Of course, it will be short, targeted, with no boots on the ground or sustained effort, it would add.

Obama would seek the backing of world leaders, to find only Britain and France would immediately stand with him and that the same nations who refused to help in Iraq would refuse to help him here. Vladimir Putin, the guy Obama took office promising to straighten out, would thumb his nose.

Obama would get hung up on legal justification for action, finding out quick that it’s scant or at least dubious in the…
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Japan Seeks to Hike Taxes then Waste Money on Stimulus to Make Up for Decline in Spending; Currency Crisis Awaits

Courtesy of Mish.

Politicians and economic illiterates frequently assume two wrongs make a right. Here is a case in point: Japan panel backs sales tax hike coupled with stimulus.

Japan’s government won backing for a controversial decision to raise the national sales tax in 2014 after influential members of a special advisory panel said the step would not threaten economic recovery or business confidence if it was coupled with other stimulus.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe convened the panel to hear a wide range of views on whether to press ahead with a planned hike in the consumption tax to 8 percent from the current 5 percent in April. Unless Abe changes the plan, the sales tax will be raised to 10 percent in October 2015.

Advocates, including officials at the Ministry of Finance, say raising the tax would be an important first step in trying to lower public debt, which is the worst among industrialized countries at more than twice the size of Japan’s economy.

When Japan last hiked the sales tax from 3 percent to 5 percent in 1997, consumer spending tumbled by 13 percent in the quarter after the higher tax went into effect. That was followed by a recession.

Two Wrongs Don’t Make a Right

When you cherry pick a panel, and the panel has a pre-determined outcome, the answer always comes out the way you expect.

Thus Abe’s blue ribbon panel concluded tax hikes won’t hurt. And for good measure, if by some chance they do, the panel suggested wasting those tax dollars on stimulus.

Good grief!

Appearances of Success

 Appearances of success are not the same as success.

It is conceivable that such a preposterous plan might “appear” to work for the simple reason Japan’s two lost decades might have finally played out on their own accord.

However, that will not make the policy successful in any real sense. Raising taxes and then wasting the money are never good solutions to anything. Two wrongs don’t make a right….



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Gearing Up For September

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

September is likely to be dominated by a number of key event risks, in addition to ongoing uncertainty around the US growth outlook, the Fed’s reaction function and heightened EM volatility. We highlight the major events and likely market implications.

Via BofAML,
Fasten Your Seatbelts

1. Potential US strike on Syria

US officials are reportedly preparing to launch missile strikes at strategic targets inside Syria in reaction to the Syrian government’s alleged use of chemical weapons last week. The British parliament held a vote on whether to authorize the use of military force in Syria, but the vote failed, leaving the US with less support from key allies than expected. However, according to press reports there is a reasonable probability of a unilateral US strike over the weekend or early next week. Nevertheless, markets seem largely unfazed heading in to the long US weekend, though the situation remains highly uncertain.

Rates implications: oil shock and rates

It is too early to assess the economic and rates implications of a potential strike given the uncertainty around the timing and duration of the conflict and possible spill-over in the region. However, there has already been a sizable run-up in oil prices this week (Brent crude is up 4.8% since last Thursday’s close) and this could have effects on rates. Table 2 shows the average impact on 10y nominal Treasury yields, real yields, TIPS breakevens and the stock market in episodes where oil moved by more than 1 standard deviation over a month.

The most obvious impact is a consistent rise in TIPS breakevens across episodes. The impact on nominal rates is mixed, with half the events leading to a rise in nominal rates and half declining. Table 2 isolates market shocks in certain specific oil shock periods. Clearly, the effect on nominal yields is ambiguous, but real yields have generally declined and breakevens have consistently risen.

2. FOMC meeting

Markets have been fixated on the timing of tapering, but there will be a number of other important aspects of the September 18 FOMC meeting.

Apart from the decision to taper or not, also crucial to the market will be guidance around the size and composition of tapering and guidance around the forward tapering path. The FOMC statement may or may not introduce language addressing this issue, but…
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Comment by jomama

View Single Comment

  1. jomama
    November 18th, 2007 at 4:48 pm
    K1, thanks you’re the best! Thanks for all of your hard work. Belated Happy Diwali (If i remember correctly, you’re a fellow desi)







Comment by CMan

View Single Comment

  1. CMan
    November 18th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
    K1,
    I echo all of the comments above – Your contribution is priceless – great material for newbies and a nice quick ref for all.
    HUGE THANK YOU!







Comment by Henk

View Single Comment

  1. Henk
    November 9th, 2007 at 7:06 am
    Good Morning
    any idea where that break out level may take us to??







Comment by k1

View Single Comment

  1. k1
    November 3rd, 2007 at 4:35 pm
    Ins and Outs of PSW:
    Of Interest (phil’s desktop, trader status, etc.)
    Liberal Leanings (including detailed plans to fix the world)
    The NYMEX Scam
    Esoterica: things I found along the way







Comment by Richard

View Single Comment

  1. Richard
    November 3rd, 2007 at 6:21 pm
    It just occurred to me that it might be very helpful to put a new tab at the top of the PSW home page for “The K1 Project”. That will make your efforts easy to find and refer to for months and years to come.

    So, what’s your favorite color, K1?







Comment by Richard

View Single Comment

  1. Richard
    November 4th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
    Well, K1, I’m sure Phil or Jared will find a place for your red tab somewhere. While you are still developing the project, it might be most useful under Newsletters. After you’ve completed the areas you have indicated, maybe then would be the time to put it in Education. That’s my two cents. Wherever your tab ends up, I’m sure it will be “hit on” frequenly.







 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Explosion Hits Russia's Largest Virus Lab Which Houses Plague, Smallpox, Ebola And Other Deadly Viruses

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A sudden explosion at a Siberian virus research center on Monday reportedly left the facility engulfed in flames, according to several Russian news outlets. 

Firefighters and other emergency personnel were dispatched to the "Vector Institute" located several miles from Novosibirsk - an emergency which was upgraded "from an ordinary emergency to a major incident," a...



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Phil's Favorites

The future of work will still include plenty of jobs

 

The future of work will still include plenty of jobs

Even though the future is unknown, Canada’s employment rate has risen steadily from 53 per cent in 1946 to more than 61 per cent today. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Wayne Simpson, University of Manitoba

There is now widespread anxiety over the future of work, often accompanied by calls for a basic income to protect those displaced by automation and other technological changes.

As a labour economis...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Is The Drone Strike a Black Swan?

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Pundits are calling yesterday’s drone strke a “black swan.” Can a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility, be a “black swan.”

According to Investopedia:

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.

I seriously doubt that no one expected or could have predicted a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility.

Call Me A B...

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Insider Scoop

New Relic Cuts 2020 Sales Guidance, Announces Changes In Management

Courtesy of Benzinga

New Relic (NYSE: NEWR) has reaffirmed its second-quarter guidance and cut its sales guidance for fiscal year 2020 from $600 million-$607 million to $586 million-$593 million.

The company’s chief technology officer, Jim Gochee, and chief revenue officer, Erica Schultz, have resigned. New Relic also named board member Michael Christenson as its chief operating officer. Christenson joins from his ...



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The Technical Traders

Metals are following downside sell off prediction before the next rally

Courtesy of Technical Traders

It is absolutely amazing how the precious metals markets have followed our October 2018 predictions almost like clockwork.  Our call for an April 21~24 momentum base below $1300 followed by an extensive rally to levels above $1550 has been playing out almost like we scripted these future price moves.

Now that the $1550 level has been reached, we are expecting a rotation to levels that may reach just below the $1490~1500 level before attempting to set up another momentum base/bottom formation.  And just like clockwork, Gold has followed our predictions and price is falling as we expected. Just look at our October 2018 chart where we forecasted the price of gold...



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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bond Yields Due For Rally After Declining More Than 1987 Stock Crash

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year Durations

The past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion.

This has spurred recession concerns for much of 2019. Needless to say, it’s a confusing time for investors.

In today’s chart of the day, we look at a longer-term view of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year treasury bond yields.

Short to long term bond yields are all testing 7 to 10-year support levels as momentum is at the lowest levels in a decade.

A yield rally is likely due across the board after a recent decline that was bigger than the stock crash in 1987!

If yields fail to ral...



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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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