Archive for August, 2013

Unidentified Marine Sums It All Up

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Presented with no comment…

 

(via @NewsNinja2012)

 

whether or not this is a real member of the US armed forces is unknown but we suspect it sums up many of their perspectives as Obama punts to Congress.





Guest Post: If The Syria Issue Were An ‘SNL’ Skit

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Jim VandeHei, originally posted at Politico,

The Ironic War Plan

Imagine Dick Cheney in a “Saturday Night Live” skit fantasizing about Barack Obama handling the pressures of going to war.

Cheney’s sitting there, yucking it up with Rummy and the boys, eating yellow cake. He laughs off his own reckless rush to an unwinnable war fought on flawed grounds. His thought bubble pops up.

Obama would be droning on about the complexities of Syria, the limits of U.S. power in the region, the danger of action and the wisdom of caution.

He would promise swift action only if true red lines were crossed. The deaths of 100,000 people would not be one of them.

He would feel self-conscious about looking weak, so he would talk to those in the press who truly understand his complex views. In doing so, he would spring a surprise on his advisers and say the movement of or use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime would be the trigger to “change my calculus.”

His staff would leak that it was improvised, so even it didn’t know if it was real.

Syria would then cross that red line, using chemical weapons in defiance of Obama and other leaders of civilized nations, a provocation the president simply could not ignore.

So Obama would promise swift, decisive action. But not until aides leak to the media that he doesn’t really want to do it.

Obama would know his anti-war base on the left would simply hate another war based on allegations of weapons of mass destruction.

So he would promise swift but very limited action. Of course, he won’t topple the regime like that crazy Bush did in Iraq, his staff would privately explain to the press. Of course, it will be short, targeted, with no boots on the ground or sustained effort, it would add.

Obama would seek the backing of world leaders, to find only Britain and France would immediately stand with him and that the same nations who refused to help in Iraq would refuse to help him here. Vladimir Putin, the guy Obama took office promising to straighten out, would thumb his nose.

Obama would get hung up on legal justification for action, finding out quick that it’s scant or at least dubious in the…
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Japan Seeks to Hike Taxes then Waste Money on Stimulus to Make Up for Decline in Spending; Currency Crisis Awaits

Courtesy of Mish.

Politicians and economic illiterates frequently assume two wrongs make a right. Here is a case in point: Japan panel backs sales tax hike coupled with stimulus.

Japan’s government won backing for a controversial decision to raise the national sales tax in 2014 after influential members of a special advisory panel said the step would not threaten economic recovery or business confidence if it was coupled with other stimulus.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe convened the panel to hear a wide range of views on whether to press ahead with a planned hike in the consumption tax to 8 percent from the current 5 percent in April. Unless Abe changes the plan, the sales tax will be raised to 10 percent in October 2015.

Advocates, including officials at the Ministry of Finance, say raising the tax would be an important first step in trying to lower public debt, which is the worst among industrialized countries at more than twice the size of Japan’s economy.

When Japan last hiked the sales tax from 3 percent to 5 percent in 1997, consumer spending tumbled by 13 percent in the quarter after the higher tax went into effect. That was followed by a recession.

Two Wrongs Don’t Make a Right

When you cherry pick a panel, and the panel has a pre-determined outcome, the answer always comes out the way you expect.

Thus Abe’s blue ribbon panel concluded tax hikes won’t hurt. And for good measure, if by some chance they do, the panel suggested wasting those tax dollars on stimulus.

Good grief!

Appearances of Success

 Appearances of success are not the same as success.

It is conceivable that such a preposterous plan might “appear” to work for the simple reason Japan’s two lost decades might have finally played out on their own accord.

However, that will not make the policy successful in any real sense. Raising taxes and then wasting the money are never good solutions to anything. Two wrongs don’t make a right….



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Gearing Up For September

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

September is likely to be dominated by a number of key event risks, in addition to ongoing uncertainty around the US growth outlook, the Fed’s reaction function and heightened EM volatility. We highlight the major events and likely market implications.

Via BofAML,
Fasten Your Seatbelts

1. Potential US strike on Syria

US officials are reportedly preparing to launch missile strikes at strategic targets inside Syria in reaction to the Syrian government’s alleged use of chemical weapons last week. The British parliament held a vote on whether to authorize the use of military force in Syria, but the vote failed, leaving the US with less support from key allies than expected. However, according to press reports there is a reasonable probability of a unilateral US strike over the weekend or early next week. Nevertheless, markets seem largely unfazed heading in to the long US weekend, though the situation remains highly uncertain.

Rates implications: oil shock and rates

It is too early to assess the economic and rates implications of a potential strike given the uncertainty around the timing and duration of the conflict and possible spill-over in the region. However, there has already been a sizable run-up in oil prices this week (Brent crude is up 4.8% since last Thursday’s close) and this could have effects on rates. Table 2 shows the average impact on 10y nominal Treasury yields, real yields, TIPS breakevens and the stock market in episodes where oil moved by more than 1 standard deviation over a month.

The most obvious impact is a consistent rise in TIPS breakevens across episodes. The impact on nominal rates is mixed, with half the events leading to a rise in nominal rates and half declining. Table 2 isolates market shocks in certain specific oil shock periods. Clearly, the effect on nominal yields is ambiguous, but real yields have generally declined and breakevens have consistently risen.

2. FOMC meeting

Markets have been fixated on the timing of tapering, but there will be a number of other important aspects of the September 18 FOMC meeting.

Apart from the decision to taper or not, also crucial to the market will be guidance around the size and composition of tapering and guidance around the forward tapering path. The FOMC statement may or may not introduce language addressing this issue, but…
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Comment by jomama

View Single Comment

  1. jomama
    November 18th, 2007 at 4:48 pm
    K1, thanks you’re the best! Thanks for all of your hard work. Belated Happy Diwali (If i remember correctly, you’re a fellow desi)







Comment by CMan

View Single Comment

  1. CMan
    November 18th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
    K1,
    I echo all of the comments above – Your contribution is priceless – great material for newbies and a nice quick ref for all.
    HUGE THANK YOU!







Comment by Henk

View Single Comment

  1. Henk
    November 9th, 2007 at 7:06 am
    Good Morning
    any idea where that break out level may take us to??







Comment by k1

View Single Comment

  1. k1
    November 3rd, 2007 at 4:35 pm
    Ins and Outs of PSW:
    Of Interest (phil’s desktop, trader status, etc.)
    Liberal Leanings (including detailed plans to fix the world)
    The NYMEX Scam
    Esoterica: things I found along the way







Comment by Richard

View Single Comment

  1. Richard
    November 3rd, 2007 at 6:21 pm
    It just occurred to me that it might be very helpful to put a new tab at the top of the PSW home page for “The K1 Project”. That will make your efforts easy to find and refer to for months and years to come.

    So, what’s your favorite color, K1?







Comment by Richard

View Single Comment

  1. Richard
    November 4th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
    Well, K1, I’m sure Phil or Jared will find a place for your red tab somewhere. While you are still developing the project, it might be most useful under Newsletters. After you’ve completed the areas you have indicated, maybe then would be the time to put it in Education. That’s my two cents. Wherever your tab ends up, I’m sure it will be “hit on” frequenly.







 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

The dysfunctional debt ceiling and why we should kill it: 5 questions answered

 

The dysfunctional debt ceiling and why we should kill it: 5 questions answered

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is taking ‘extraordinary measures’ to avoid busting the debt ceiling. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Courtesy of Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

Editor’s note: The U.S. government maxed out its national credit card in March and has been moving money around ever since to avoid running out of cash. Very soon the Treasury Department ...



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Zero Hedge

This Is Where The Next Recession Will Start: An Epidemiological Study

By Nicholas Colas of DataTrek

(Published at ZeroHedge)

US recessions are like epidemics: they all begin somewhere, and the “tell” is state-level unemployment data. For example, the end of the 2000 dot com bubble hit Connecticut and Massachusetts first – two hubs for the financials services industry with lots of affluent investors to boot. The end of the 2000s housing boom predictably impacted Florida and Nevada before the rest of the country. This time around, the data shows the manufacturing-heavy states of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana are most at risk. No wonder “Dr. Fed” wants to inoculate the region with lower interest rates.

When medical professionals study epidemics, they look for the source of the ou...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver ETF (SLV) Testing Dual Breakout Resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver (NYSEARCA: SLV) has been in a bit of a slumber when compared to the price action for Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Precious metals bulls hope that this about to change, as bullish action from Silver is necessary to confirm any bull market / move in metals.

Today’s chart takes a closer look at the Silver ETF (SLV) on a weekly basis. As you can see, Silver is up 5 percent this week alone.

This is good news for metals bulls. But this rally isn’t confirming a breakout just yet.

As you can see in the chart below, SLV has been trading between support (1) ...



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Insider Scoop

Analysts Weigh In On Netflix's Rocky Quarter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reported second-quarter results highlighted by an uncharacteristic decline in U.S. subscribers while international subscriber adds missed expectations. Here is a summary of how some of the Street's top analysts reacted to the print.

The Analysts

Mor...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>