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January 23rd, 2010 at 1:25 pm
Phil
No question about it – you have been warning about overvaluation in the markets for some time along with the prediction a correction will materialize sooner than later – I heeded your advice for caution the week before last, and closed out 50% of my portfolio and went to cash Thank you for the sage advice.. With my stops and hedges in place I thought the balance of my positions were safe. Obama’s two speeches this past week made the decision for me on another 40%, so now I am down to 10% with most of the positions 100% hedged with no stops as I would be killed by taxes if stopped out. So here I am starting over "squeezing nickles into quarters" and looking for bearish opportunities that seen to be the most attractive plays going forward. When this correction reaches the levels we had early spring of last year, then I will begin to accumulate stocks using the buy/write strategy.
Re your very interesting post on the residential real estate experiences, I must confessI was a contributor/participent in the bubble formation. Like so many others taking out mortgages on houses, I was leveraging this opportunity as a speculator. On the mortgage application, you would always be asked the question – "Will this be your primary home that you will be residing in?" I would always give a Yes answer. What an easy scam that was – after a week of residency, you rent it out and go get another "primary" residence. At one point I had five "primary" residences, however they all were in sequence. I do not think I was alone, and I made a lot of money for realtors that did almost nothing for their few minutes of work. This was legal and I did not lie, but the regulations were a joke. These type of regulations allowed speculators like me to legally contribute to the bubble.