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Saturday, April 20, 2024

Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

     Europe closed flat.  

    Gold/Yodi – I know it is subject to short-term runs as people flee to safety but let’s say 30 people are on the floor of an office building and there’s a small fire in the copy room so they all run into an elevator that has a capacity for 12 people.  Is the elevator safe?  Certainly, historically, it has taken many people safely downstairs and it does seem safer to go downstairs than to stay on the same floor as a fire, even a small one but there does get to be a point, perhaps once you get past 20 people in the elevator, where the elevator becomes more dangerous than staying put.  By the 25th person, you probably have more chance of dying in the elevator than even a bigger fire would pose and by 30 people, some are almost certain to be crushed and suffocated, even if the whole thing doesn’t crash – killing them all.  I’d say gold is somewhere between 20 and 30 people at this point and more people are getting on board every day…

    PM/IKdubbs – Portfolio Margin – not a toy!  

    Dollar fully recovered to yesterday afternoon and markets pretty much back as well.  At least that makes sense.  Gold, copper and silver keeping their gains .  Silver popped $30 and no one is saying anything.   

    SLW is outperforming SLV by 60% this year so I like shorting them better than shorting silver because silver doesn’t have the production scalability that gold does so there is no reason for a miner to drastically outperform the metal .  SLW Feb $35 puts at $1.35 were over $2 on Friday so I like them for a quick 20% gain.  



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