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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    Not even getting the weak bounce so far.   Don't forget, failure to make a weak bounce and finishing down 1.25% indicates follow-through lower the next day.   What we then want to know is whether it is accelerating or decelerating (closer to 0.625% or 2.5%).  We are certainly primed for a 10% sell-off and -1.25%, -2.5%, -5% and then decelerating to -1.25% and 0.625% would be a perfect pullback.  

    From 16,500 on the main index, 10% down is 14,850 so 15,000ish is about as low as we expect to go – even if things get ugly.  The 200 dma is 15,400, which is 6.66% off 16,500 – the mark of the Blankfein!

     

    TSLA/Yodi – No rational person would but keep in mind that the company's entire float is 83M shares and, according to Yahoo, 106% of it is held by Institutions and Mutual Funds.    FMR alone owns 11.6M shares, BNP 7M, TRow Price 6M…  So "people" don't own TSLA at all and, what few people do own it (as opposed to day trading or options trading, where they never get the shares) are mostly wealthy TSLA owners who just paid $90,000 for a car and don't think owning 100 shares for $17,500 is strange at all.  Those same people are mainly in California and obviously wealthy and they live in places where they see lots of people with Teslas and lots of people talking about them.  In my town, or even  in NYC, for that matter, I see zero Teslas and I know zero people who want one or even care about the company at all.  But, with that small a float, they don't need NY/NJ to know or care about their stock – they literally only have to fool some of the people all of time.  

    VZ/StJ – I always did like them better but, this year, I ran them both down for our trade of the year ideas and T seemed stronger going forward.  If VZ gets cheaper, that may change.  

    You're welcome Mill.  You have to have some rules in your head – even if you end up not following them because at least then you KNOW you are playing on the fringes.  

    TOS/Scott – That's why I'm ignoring all those pop-ups urging me to run the update.  



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