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2024
March 5th, 2007 at 11:11 am
Sigh. All this stuff going on and I’m too busy to play.
Ya’ll might recall that I was traveling for awhile in February. Well, the week I got back I made the mistake of mentioning to a friend that I was thinking about maybe considering eventually going back to work. By the end of the next day I was Vice President of Engineering at a startup still in stealth mode. Which isn’t leaving me much time for trading and research and such.
I’m not sure which way this market is going to break; however, long term I like QQQQ and SPY quite a lot considering how relatively low the PE ratios are. AMD isn’t quite cheap enough for me just yet as I think it’ll likely get a bit cheaper before bottoming (likely in July/August); however, INTC could choose to give them a break earlier. I continue to like GLW long term.
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AAPL is reportedly having a surprisingly good quarter with year-over-year Mac sales up 100+% in January, with iPod sales ahead of expectations, and with their US market share continuing to outgrow the market. According to http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=5 , AAPL has grown from 4.37% market share last March to 6.38% last month (notice that this market share number is mostly a measure of installed base; however, the growth element represent a leading indicator of current quarter market share).
Adobe has announced that they’re launching Creative Suite 3 on March 27 which means that the creative community will finally have an Intel-native version of Adobe’s products (that leaves Microsoft Office as the only major non-native application). This is widely expected to push up sales of Apple’s high-end desktop products. Apple will be hosting a special event at the National Association of Broadcasters show on April 15. Most likely focused on software (Final Cut Pro almost certainly), Apple has in the past also introduced hardware at this show and, if they haven’t done so in conjunction with Adobe, they might introduce updated desktops here (probably a 2 x quad core desktop configuration). The Adobe release + new hardware would likely push desktop sales up at least 20% for calendar Q2.
MacOS X 10.5 (aka Leopard) remains on track for a “Spring” release. Which in Apple’s vernacular traditionally means sometime before the first day of Summer. With Apple’s World Wide Developer Conference scheduled for June, the most likely scenario has Leopard shipping in June. I’ve not done the math lately, but just about every machine Apple has shipped in the last 3 years is capable of running Leopard and more than 50% of the “recent installed base” paid to upgrade to 10.4 in the first year of its release. Similar results for 10.5 would yield 7.5 million sales of Leopard at (assumedly) $129 each or just under a billion in incremental revenue of the next year. There will also be a slightly smaller boost from iLife ’07 and iWork ’07.
Finally, Intel’s Santa Rosa chipset should be available starting late April/early May which means that Apple should be updating at least the MacBook if not the MacBook Pro in calendar Q2. The MacBook has to be updated in the Spring to ensure that school boards have something interesting to order for the fall semester. 😉
Then there’s some wildcards from the Airport Base Station and Apple TV. And, did we mention the iPhone. I understand that the iPhone is getting some press as well. Anyway, with a trailing PE of 31 and a PEG of only 1.3, AAPL seems to be doing okay.
Now back to work…
reinharden