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Testy Tuesday – Dow 17,000 Edition

RUT WEEKLYRussell 1,200 already failed.  

That's strike one for the rally.  Strike two would be the failure of Dow 17,000 and strike three would be the NYSE failing to hold 11,000.  One day does not a correction make and yesterday was another very low-volume affair so we certainly aren't going to draw any conclusions until we see a proper trend.  

What we do know for sure is that the ENTIRE move above 1,160 on the Russell, 11,000 on the NYSE, 16,850 on the Dow, 4,400 on the Nasdaq and 1,960 on the S&P was also low-volume BS and can't be trusted either.  

With the Russell slipping 1.77% in a single day, you can see why we made TZA (ultra-short Russell) one of our primary hedges in the Short-Term Portfolio.  In fact, we pressed that bet on Wednesday morning, while the index was popping in the morning as I said to our Members in the Live Chat Room:

In the STP we have 20 TZA Aug $15 calls at 0.70 and they are now .40 with TZA at $13.49.  We can DD or we can spend 0.23 to roll them down to the $14s.  Since TZA was $15 last week and since Aug is 43 days from expiration, I think it makes more sense to roll closer to the money than DD.  Keep in mind that, if TZA goes $1 lower and we had doubled down, we will have spent .40 more to have 40 contracts that would be $2.50 out of the money but if we roll again for another .23, we would have 20 of the $13 calls for about the same price and our net $1.16 would still be back to even on less than a 10% move higher, vs 20% we'd need to get back to $15.55 (break-even on 2x).  

So let's roll our 20 TZA Aug $15 calls (.43 now) to the $14 calls (.66) for 0.23 per contract.   Our short puts are the $12s, so no worries yet (and not even if they fall another $1.

The plan is working well as already the Aug $14 calls are back to 0.91, up 50% from Friday's entry on that 1.77% pullback in the Russell – now THAT'S LEVERAGE!  Trades like that are why our protective Short-Term Portfolio gained 2% yesterday while the market was pulling back.  Our STP is bearish protection for our Long-Term Portfolio which, so far, is holding up well because it has it's own internal hedges on each position.  

SPY 5 MINUTEHaving that kind of balance in our portfolios allows us to relax and watch the markets long enough to pick up on new patterns – without having to make rash decisions.  That too has value – even though it doesn't immediately show up on your balance sheet.  The ability to take a long weekend or, God forbid, a whole week away from the markets without worrying is also a huge plus to our system that is often underappreciated.  

In yesteday's Live Member Chat Room, we adjusted a bit more bearish with some QQQ puts right at 9:35 as we could see the weakness (the same weakness we had expected) taking form right at the bell.  When you are balanced, it's easy to make very minor adjustments that move you more bearish or bullish on the fly. 

NYSI DAILYThe overall market is still bullish (because the Fed is still there), this is just a short-term correction we're expecting and we're not even sure we'll get that the way things are going.  It's hard to imagine the individual earnings of a lot of these companies will justify their incredible valuations and that's where we think they may run into trouble.  

As you can see from Dave Fry's NYSI Chart, we're already as overbought as we were in February and, though that didn't cause the market to drop, we did flatline until May, when we had worked it off a bit.  

With big, technical lines like S&P 1,200 and Nasdaq 4,500 so close (and we're already at Dow 17,000, Russell 1,200 and NYSE 11,000) – it simply doesn't seem likely we'll be able to fly over them while the Summation Index is so overbought – in the very least, it needs a rest.  


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  1. Oil Lines

    R3 – 104.81
    R2 – 104.43
    R1 – 103.95
    PP – 103.57
    S1 – 103.09
    S2 – 102.71
    S3 – 102.23

    The oil market has been a little quiet… Maybe time for some big moves.

  2. Good morning!  

    Guy on CNBC made a good comment – Cash is selling for 400 times earnings.  Low rates of returns are keeping people out of it and making companies selling for 50 times earnings SEEM reasonable by comparison but only by comparison.  If rates normalize, what would keep people in the market?  

  3. I actually feel bad for TSLA for a change on the trademark dispute in China.  Seems you can steal companies names and register them in China before the company enters the market.  Similar to how we used to have squatters registering domain names of companies or people and sell them back to them which is now illegal.

    Between that, manipulating their currency for favorable trade and hacking into corporate computers stealing trade secrets, I don't know why we don't put a tariff on crap from China which would bring more manufacturing back here and also give us leverage in negotiating with them to stop the crap they are pulling.

  4. Good article on the bad calculations that companies make when they offshore their business:

    I’ve had executives attest to variants of this behavior, that they offshored even though it was not particularly good for the company because Wall Street wanted it and doing so popped the stock. One can similarly imagine that the simple minded story that Phillips was “concentrating manufacturing” would sound great at investor presentations and never got scrutinized once it became a pillar of the professed strategy.

    Once again, maybe ideology (and greed) trumps facts!

  5. Tuesday’s economic calendar

    12:00 AM ET

  6. Global Indices lower overnight on weak U.S. cues

    06:00 AM ET

    • Japan -0.42%.
    • Hong Kong +0.01%.
    • China +0.20%.
    • India -2.20%.
    • London -0.58%.
    • Paris -0.40%.
    • Frankfurt -0.53%.

  7. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 95.0

    07:30 AM ET

  8. ICSC Retail Store Sales

    07:59 AM ET

    • ICSC Retail Store Sales: +1.7% W/W, vs. +1.0% last week.
    • +3.3% Y/Y vs. +4.6% last week.
    • The y/y index shows sharp increase with 4-week average of 3.8%, strongest reading in 2 years.
    • The index seems to increase more in June as compared to May.

  9. Redbook Chain Store Sales

    09:08 AM ET

    • Redbook Chain Store Sales: +6.0% Y/Y vs. +3.1% last week.
    • Heavy weather on the East Coast from Hurricane Arthur drove shoppers into malls and outlets.

  10. Outlook for coffee crops improves

    09:12 AM ET · KRFT

    • Coffee prices continue to retreat from their highs as improved weather in Brazil and strong output in India pushes up estimates on global output for the robusta and arabica varieties.
    • Many coffee sellers have already lifted retail prices (KRFT, SBUX, SJM, DNKN) and could see a benefit if their purchasing contracts get locked-in at lower levels.
    • Related ETFs: JO

  11. Goldman Sachs turns negative on The Fresh Market, shares -6.6%

    08:57 AM ET · TFM

    • The Fresh Market (TFM) is downgraded to a Sell rating from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.
    • The investment firm thinks TFM will be under pressure from rivals in the specialty grocery sector and could see higher input costs in key categories. The two trends are likely to cut into margins.
    • TFM -6.6% premarket

  12. A red flag on Wal-Mart’s U.S. sales?

    08:51 AM ET · WMT

    • Wal-Mart (WMT) is not seeing a bounce in sales tied to the increase in hiring reported by the Department of Labor in the U.S., according to U.S. chief Bill Simon.
    • The exec says the economy isn’t any better or worse for Wal-Mart’s “core” customers.
    • Retail analyst are taking the comments as a red flag that the company’s revenue could disappoint.
    • Simon’s appearance on CNBC later this morning will take on some extra significance if the topic of QTD U.S. sales comes up.
    • WMT -0.1% premarket

  13. Groupon surges on upgrade

    08:41 AM ET · GRPN

    • “Our upgrade rests a lot on management delivering on their promise, which we feel is achievable based on our sensitivity analysis,” says B. Riley analyst Sameet Sinha, boosting Groupon (GRPN) to a Buy with price target raised to $9.50 from $6.
    • Several management initiatives – including increased marketing, more efficient fulfillment, and technology deployment – should be getting traction, he says. The company is also entering a period of easier year-over-year comps.
    • Shares +5.9% premarket

  14. Delta Air Lines lower after Air France-KLM warns

    08:40 AM ET · DAL

    • Shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) are off again in early trading
    • A guidance cut from Air France-KLM appears to be setting the tone.
    • Air France-KLM dropped estimates after factoring in bookings for July and August.
    • DAL -1.7% premarket and now down close to 16% from the 52-week high set in June.

  15. When IPOs crumble

    08:19 AM ET · CRMB

    • Crumbs Bake Shops (CRMB) announced late yesterday that it would close all 48 of its stores in the U.S.
    • The company had its Nasdaq listing suspended last week for failing to maintain a market capitalization above the minimum set by the exchange.
    • Shares of Crumbs Bake Shop fetched $13.10 at their IPO debut in 2012.

  16. 3rd bailout chatter for Greece

    08:08 AM ET · GREK

    • The Greek government is busy ruling out the need for a 3rd bailout after the Troika suggests another one could be needed and Mario Draghi warns on the slowing pace of economic reform. The country faces about a $16B funding gap in 2015.
    • Stocks in Athens of are off 3%.
    • GREK -1.9%, NBG -4% premarket

  17. Lloyds the pick among U.K. banks

    08:01 AM ET · LYG

    • It’s been a tough year for the U.K. banks, but Lloyds (LYG) has shown relative strength, notes Investec’s Ian Gordon and could return to positive EPS this year, while recovery for RBS remains a long way off.
    • Further boosting Lloyds, says Gordon is valuation – trading at just 1.3x times his estimated 2015 book value, and the likely initiation of at least a token dividend for 2014.
    • Patience is required for RBS, however, as the bank should continue to lose money for the next two years, It could take a successful IPO of Citizens – with full exit planned for 2016 – to trigger a meaningful move higher.

  18. And a good analysis of why the dollar remains a reserve currency for now amidst complaints from France about the sanctions against BNP-Paribas:

    Now it is true that countries like China and Russia are pushing for more and more trade transactions to be denominated in non-dollar currencies. But if the US is involved in any way, use of dollars is inevitable. And while China has plans to create institutions to engage in international development and payment settlements, those are a long way from being established, let alone mature. Most important, the renminbi will not replace the dollar until China is prepared to run trade deficits, and there’s no evidence it is willing to cross that Rubicon. [...]

    The lack of any serious successors means dollar dominance is certain to continue for at least the next decade. When a transition starts to take place, it is more likely to be chaotic rather than orderly, as the period from World War I to the end of World War II, when the change from a sterling-dominated era to the dollar era, attests. So dollar haters, be careful what you wish for.

  19. Report: Nike to pass on renewing Manchester United deal

    07:57 AM ET · NKE

    • Nike (NKE) will end a long-time deal to supply Manchester United (MANU) with soccer kits after its current contract expires, according to Reuters.
    • The 7th-place soccer club was looking for a new sponsorship deal at around £60M ($102.1M) per season.
    • What to watch: Nike isn’t expected to go overboard trying to nab deals with other top European teams with its DNA in backing the top individual stars in a sport, rather than clubs or teams. Adidas (ADDYY) will likely have talks with Man U. about replacing Nike.

  20. LiveDeal adds 922 restaurants to deal engine

    07:47 AM ET · LIVE

    • LiveDeal (LIVE) announces it added 922 restaurants to its well-publicized deal engine during June.
    • The company says the growth marks a deeper penetration in the key cities where it operates.

  21. Online sales crumble at Marks & Spencer after website redesign

    07:42 AM ET · MAKSY

    • Marks & Spencer (MAKSY) reports same-store sales fell 0.6% during its FQ1.
    • The U.K. retailer saw a surprising 8.1% drop in online sales after a website redesign took customer aback.
    • Shares of M&S are stable in London trading after guidance came in at expectations.

  22. $600M revamp from AMC Networks includes reclining seats

    07:22 AM ET · AMC

    • AMC Networks (AMC) says it will spend close to $600M to update its line of theaters.
    • Each facility will cost between $350K and $500K to update with revisions which may include reclining seats and larger spaces for movie watchers.
    • Many theaters have seen revenue increase after going with the premium seating format despite the loss of seating capacity.

  23. On the hour

    09:00 AM ET

    • S&P -0.18%.
    • 10-yr +0.23%.
    • Euro -0.05% vs. dollar.
    • Crude -0.02% to $103.51.
    • Gold +0.46% to $1,323.10.

  24. Strike looms for GM in South Korea

    07:09 AM ET · GM

    • A strike in South Korea could lead to production cuts for General Motors (GM) in the region, warns region chief Sergio Rocha.
    • Close to 15K union employees working for GM South Korea will vote today and tomorrow on the issue of staging a strike.

  25. Volkswagen brand sales up 3.8% for first half of year

    06:59 AM ET · VLKAY

    • Volkswagen (VLKAY) reports sales of the VW brand rose by 3.8% to 3.07M vehicles for the first half of the year.
    • Sales for the brand fell in many markets, but saw a 19% jump in China.

  26. GM to invest $270M in Argentine aluminum motor factory

    06:36 AM ET · GM

    • General Motors (GM) is beefing up its investment in Latin America, outlining details of a new manufacturing facility in Argentina which will produce aluminum motors.
    • GM will invest $270M in the project, and it will be located in the province of Santa Fe.
    • The factory will produce an annual 90k motors, and operations are expected to begin in early 2017.

  27. Air France-KLM reduces profit estimate

    05:03 AM ET · AFLYY

    • Air France-KLM (AFLYY) warns that its 2014 profit may now be 12% lower than previously estimated. The company is now expecting earnings of approximately €2.2B, down from €2.5B. Despite the guidance drop, Air France-KLM highlighted that this will still represent a 20% improvement from 2013 EBITDA.
    • The carrier has attributed the new estimate to overcapacity, which has resulted in lower prices for both its passenger and cargo markets.
    • Despite the reduced profit guidance, net debt is still estimated to be reduced to €4.5B in 2015.

  28. Samsung, Intel, Dell partner to create device connection standard

    04:40 AM ET · SSNLF

    • Samsung (SSNLF), Intel (INTC) and Dell have teamed up to create a standard by which household gadgets communicate with each other, called the Open Interconnect Consortium. The partnership also includes chipmakers Broadcom (BRCM) and Atmel (ATML).
    • The new consortium will rival the AllSeen Alliance, a similar framework supported by Qualcomm (QCOM), LG (LGEIY), Microsoft (MSFT) and other companies.

  29. Popularity rises for Google’s ratings of ISP streaming quality

    04:16 AM ET · GOOG

    • Google’s (GOOG, GOOGL) new website that rates Internet service providers’ video streaming quality, for content streamed on YouTube, is gaining in popularity. A link to the website appears on YouTube when videos are slow to buffer.
    • “There are many factors that influence your video streaming quality, including your choice of Internet Service Provider. Learn how your ISP performs and understand your options,” the website reads.
    • The new rating service comes at a heated time between broadband providers and content companies to who is at fault for slow streaming speeds. New “net neutrality” laws have also added to the conflict by allowing ISP’s to create pay-for-priority deals with content providers.

  30. Reuters: U.S. to begin settlement talks with Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank

    03:36 AM ET · CRZBF

    • U.S. authorities are starting to discuss settlement options with Commerzbank (CRZBF, CRZBY) and Deutsche Bank (DB) for their money transfer operations which evaded U.S. sanctions, Reuters reports. The banks are accused of transferring money on behalf of companies in Iran and Sudan.
    • Commerzbank, is likely to settle with a deferred prosecution agreement that would suspend criminal charges in exchange for a financial penalty and other concessions. The NYT reports the bank could likely pay at least $500M, although the the timing of the deal is still unclear. The bank set aside $1.3B at the end of 2013 as a provision for litigation risks, including a possible U.S. investigation.
    • The new litigation comes after last week’s BNP Paribas settlement for $9B.

  31. AT&T will be the first carrier to sell LG smartwatch

    02:43 AM ET · T

    • AT&T (T) says it will be the first U.S. wireless carrier to sell LG’s (LGEIY) smartwatch – known as the “G Watch”. The device was made in partnership with Google (GOOG, GOOGL), and will be available for pre-order starting on July 8 for $299.
    • Demand for wearable devices is skyrocketing. Juniper Research forecasts the value of the wearable device market this year at $1.5B, up from $800M in 2013.

  32. F-35 contract talks on hold

    01:45 AM ET · LMT

    • Most Lockheed Martin (LMT) F-35 fighter jets have been inspected, after the entire fleet was grounded last week. The U.S. military had suspended all flights after an engine broke apart and caught fire at an Air Force Base in Florida.
    • The incident has put contract negotiations for the next batch of fighter jets and engines on hold. The warplane’s engine is manufactured by Pratt & Whitney (UTX).
    • The F-35 was also supposed to make its international debut at two air shows in Britain on Friday and next week, although no decision has yet been made on whether to allow the jets to fly to Britain.

  33. Samsung misses Q2 forecasts; low-end phone competition a culprit

    Yesterday, 11:43 PM ET · SSNLF

    • Samsung (SSNLF, SSNGY) expects to report Q2 revenue of KRW51T-53T ($50.4B-$52.4B), and an op. profit of KRW7T-7.4T ($6.9B-$7.3B). Those guidance ranges are below Bloomberg consensus estimates of KRW53.2T and KRW8.1T.
    • The electronics giant blames “mid-to-low end” phone competition in China and Europe, a strong won, and higher marketing spend aimed at lowering phone inventories.
    • Also, tablet shipments fell more than expected due to a weak market, and mobile weakness had a spillover effect on internal display and chip sales.
    • Samsung is facing intensifying low-end/mid-range smartphone competition from Chinese OEMs pricing aggressively – its smartphone share fell Y/Y in both Q1 and Q4 (per IDC) following a long run of share gains, while Huawei and Lenovo each grew rapidly. Xiaomi, which shipped 26.1M phones in 1H14 (+271% Y/Y), is also a growing threat.
    • The tablet weakness comes after the market’s growth slowed to a trickle in Q1. Notably, Samsung states phablets are cannibalizing 7″-8″ tablets, and a lack of carrier subsidies is leading to low upgrade rates (previous).
    • Samsung is “cautiously” optimistic about Q3. It expects hardware refreshes to boost smartphone sales, and for display and memory chip sales to also rise.
    • Shares are up 0.5% in Seoul. Investors have been expecting soft Q2 numbers.

  34. New York governor signs pot law

    Yesterday, 08:08 PM ET · AEGY

  35. Report: YouTube brought Google $1.5B in 2013 net revenue

    Yesterday, 07:06 PM ET · GOOG

    • YouTube (GOOG) had $3.5B in 2013 gross revenue and $1.5B in net revenue (excludes content provider payments), The Information reports.
    • The gross figure is well below the $5.6B estimated by eMarketer last fall. Nonetheless, YouTube, whose profitability has often been questioned, is said to be in the black.
    • The Information also reports daily viewing hours are now near 300M – up from 100M in fall 2012, but well below an ambitious 2016 target of 1B. The site makes note of the competition YouTube, still the 800-lb. gorilla of free Web video, faces from rivals ranging from Netflix to Yahoo to Facebook. Yahoo is reportedly prepping a video site, and hoping to enlist disgruntled YouTube content providers.
    • In an apparent sign YouTube monetization is now a priority, Google recently replaced Salar Kamangar as YouTube’s CEO with former ad/commerce product chief Susan Wojcicki. Since then, YouTube has rolled out a program allowing brand advertisers to focus on top content providers, and has been rumored to be eying game live-streaming platform Twitch, whose base skews heavily towards the 18-34 demographic beloved by advertisers.
    • Previous: YouTube, others chase TV video ad dollars

  36. Alcoa still eyed warily at Cowen, even as it lifts estimate ahead of earnings

    Yesterday, 06:55 PM ET · AA

    • Alcoa (AA) will kick off earnings season when it releases its financial results after the close tomorrow, and Cowen analysts say they remain cautious on the stock given the fundamental weakness in the aluminum market while seeing the company as well positioned to take advantage of the secular growth in both the aerospace and automotive markets.
    • AA has removed a lot of cost from the business, providing it with efficiencies once the market improves, Cowen says even as it keeps its Market Perform rating and $12 price target on the shares and slightly raises its Q2 EPS estimate to $0.13 from $0.12.
    • AA fell 1.6% today ahead of tomorrow’s report.

  37. Out of XRT for a 44% gain in 5 days.  Thanks Phil.

  38. TASR taking it a bit on the chin.  Anybody know when they report?

  39. Good Morning!

  40. Woops, off to a quick drop at the bell!  

    Oil popped to $104 though.  Gasoline bottomed at $2.97, now $2.987.

    Gold back to $1,324, silver $21.19, copper $3.27, nat gas $4.18 with the Dollar at 80.28, Euro $1.36, Pound $1.71 and 101.50 Yen to the Dollar.  

    Yen failing 101.50 is a good reason to short /NKD at 15,300 (tight stops).

    China/Rustle – It's like trading with the Mafia.  

    Offshoring/StJ – I've consulted on many projects where it made little or no sense but the companies were bound and determined to do it anyway.  It goes back to intangibles, like having customer service people who don't have accents, which may lead to better CS scores but don't show up directly on the bottom line.  Offshoring manufacturing can lead to very costly production mistakes – also doesn't show up when looking at the raw cost of production.  

    Dollar/StJ – Seems like we have this conversation every two or three years and nothing ever actually changes and then everyone forgets the last failed attempt to displace the Dollar and it cycles round again.  

    XRT/DC – Very nice, you are welcome.  

    TASR/Cdt – I don't see a date yet but last earnings were 4/30 so figure July 30ish.  

    • Dow -0.46% to 16,946.50. S&P -0.37% to 1,970.40. Nasdaq -0.35 to 4,435.62.
    • Treasurys: 30-year +0.52%. 10-yr +0.27%. 5-yr +0.15%.
    • Commodities: Crude +0.39% to $103.94. Gold +0.56% to $1,324.40.
    • Currencies: Euro -0.04% vs. dollar. Yen -0.26%. Pound +0.07%.

    "This Is The Worst Of All Possible Worlds," The Fed "Is Borrowing Returns From The Future"

    Warren Buffett's 'Single Best Measure' Of Stock Market Value Is Higher Today Than It Was During The Credit Bubble

    Meet The $1 Billion Company With Zero Revenues

    Ukraine Advances, Putin Stays Silent

    Why The Super Typhoon Heading Toward Japan Could Be So Dangerous

    China Developers Slow to Pay Realtors Amid Rout, Centaline Says

    Minimum Wage Consequences? iPhone 6 Will Be Made By "FoxBots"

    Brazil carmakers slash forecasts as June output plunges

    • Seadrill (SDRL -4.8%) opens sharply lower after launching a $1B 2019 convertible bond concurrently with a voluntary incentive payment offer to convert an existing $650M 3.375% 2017 convertible bond.
    • The senior unsecured bonds will be convertible into common shares, with an annual coupon of 2%-2.50%, and have a conversion premium of 30%-35% over the reference share price based on the volume-weighted average price of the company’s shares today in Oslo and New York.
    • SDRL intends to use the proceeds to fund its newbuild program and for general corporate purposes.

  41. Bank loan funds go….zoom…then boom….

  42. I think we'd better take $2.30 and run on our QQQ July $97 puts in the STP and $25KP, that's up 47% in a day and neither portfolio needs it as a hedge – was just meant as a momentum trade.  

  43. AAPL/Phil- My AAPL positions are as follows: 2044 shares stock (dividend reinvesting)

    35 Oct 14 96.43 naked calls @2.14 

    21 Jan '16  $85.71/107.14 BCS bought @ $8.05 adjusted

    14 Jan '16 $85.71/100 BCS @ $4.33 split adjusted

    5Jan '16 $80/100 BCS @ $9

    5 Jan '16 81.43 puts sold @ $7.50

    Thats a big basket of apples! 

  44. Pharm

    Did you see this one ?

    Behind The Promotion Of Northwest Bio


  45. That was a quick $0.50 round trip between 104 and 103.50 on oil…

  46. That was a weird move in oil! Jumped from 103.50 to 104.20 and right back down to 103.50 in no time at all.

  47. AAPL/Craigs – So you have about $200K tied up in the stock AND you have 3,500 shares worth of October bullish calls as well – that's a bit redundant right there, isn't it?  Those calls are now $4.50 so $15,750 there gives you all of the upside over $98.50 without tying up the other $200K.  

    I love AAPL and I don't mind it being 20% of a portfolio for a LONG-TERM investment but, short-term, it's had a great run and you are not just being greedy but greedy and unrealistic to hold both the stock and the naked calls and risking all that profit.  

    I'd just cash the stock, roll the October call money into the more sensible 2016 spreads and IF AAPL GOES LOWER – then I'd consider adding more puts.  Meanwhile, you'd have $200K in cash going into earnings, which keeps you from suffering major damage and leaves you with plenty of flexibility to adjust.  

    Oil/StJ, Craigs – Blow off spike I think (trying to trigger buy orders and stop out shorts before heading lower), these inventories will likely disappoint as the weather wasn't good on the east coast this weekend and I don't know what these traders are going to do with 700,000 open contracts in the 4 front months.  December is already going to be causing a rolling problem very soon as it's stuffed with 220,000,000 barrels already. 

    Click for
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Aug'14 103.39 103.84 103.27 103.62 09:58
    Jul 08


    0.09 63387 103.53 241418 Call Put
    Sep'14 102.83 103.30 102.76 103.07 09:58
    Jul 08


    0.04 26818 103.03 231030 Call Put
    Oct'14 102.10 102.62 102.03 102.29 09:58
    Jul 08


    10541 102.29 159621 Call Put
    Nov'14 101.38 101.68 101.24 101.50 09:58
    Jul 08


    6504 101.50 75573 Call Put
    Dec'14 100.59 100.91 100.49 100.70 09:58
    Jul 08


    -0.08 19437 100.78 220346 Call Put

  48. Rolling ARIA out-7 calls are down 45% already.  Earnings 8/6. TASR earnings 7/30.

  49. A sudden drop to gold that doesn't make sense. Anyways, it might signal the stock rally is not done yet…

  50. NURO – no options but big move on FDA approval of their wearable chronic pain tech

  51. Phil

    Those TZA August $14 calls ($1.24) are almost 100% the roll price of ~$.67 . Since they were coupled with the August $12 puts was the plan to cover them or just sell the calls and keep the sold puts?

  52. Phil // Morning
    Your call on QQQ puts. I have SQQQ Aug $40/44 BLCS ( $1.28 )
    Would you cash these as well ?

  53. TASR – might be Phil's stock-of-the-decade, but it's my loser-of-the-week. :-(

  54. Phil,
    In main page you refer to S&P 1200, rather than 2000 i think

  55. Phil – I've been out of the country and away from internet access for over a week.  I didn't see any emails about the butterfly portfolio, so I assume it is cranking away until July expiration?  No new positions?  I'm enjoying going back and reading your daily articles.  

  56. you guys who trade futures profitably really impress me.  i swear my timing is wrong 90% of the time

  57. Rev – no changes to the butterfly collection. Just watching the prices flutter up and down….

  58. Quote of the day:

    Ben Carlson, “The real “perfect” portfolio is whatever approach allows you to stick with your investment plan without completely abandoning your strategy at the worst possible times.”  (A Wealth of Common Sense)

  59. Butterfly – Thanks Eric!

  60. Phil -I am holding the SQQQ 40/44 BCS as a hedge also, and have the same question as Wombat? What should I do with these? Based on the p/l on TDAmeritrade I have somehow managed to lose on this even though the SQQQ is up considerably since I entered the trade the day you suggested it. I am guessing it's because of the rather large spreads on these ? They use the bid on the long calls $2.75 and the ask on the short calls $1.55 so it says I am down $150 but hopefully the price would be somewhere in the middle of the spreads if I chose to move out already. 

    Also it is very strange to be out of my Apple positions for the first time in  4 years, but I do feel like it was time to take a breather and not let greed get the better of me. I would welcome your advice down the road if you think it is time to be aggressive with Apple at any point. I need to make sure I don't jump back in at the wrong time because of the wrong reasons. Thanks for your guidance. 

  61. PSW / Giga
    So,I spent the weekend with a friend who is extremely well connected in 'libertarian' and research circles here. He also has a second home in Nevada.
    Long story short, he owns three TESLA's and is very enmeshed with their business. We often joke because he knows how bearish I am. I took my first ride and also went through all the third party API's that had been given to him by TSLA to Q/A ( he a fricken dot com trustafarian – cashed out 20 years ago ) 
    Very impressive. However I don't my respect for the car change what I think the stock is worth.
    The reason I bring this up is the Gigafactory is a go. All I can say is that its just outside of Reno on a 117,000 acre industrial park. We did a little more digging and found that 'very big corps' are buying up all the surrounding land. 
    But I'm sure its just a coincidence ; >

  62. Kyoto chosen best destination by Travel Magazine – I agree.  It's where I went on my honeymoon.  If I could speak Japanese, I wouldn't mind living there either.  

    Kyoto Chosen as No.1 Destination by US Travel Magazine

    QQQ puts topped out at $2.75, so we were a bit early – but that's what TZA and DXD are for.  The real key (in the STP) is the $2,000 we made on QQQ paid for our TZAs so now they are a free hedge.  

    Gold/Invest – Especially when the Dollar is dropping too (80.20). 

    NURO/Scott – That stuff does sound interesting. 

    TZA/DC – As I just said, they are essentially free protection now and they are there to protect us from catastrophic failure – not just a 3% pullback in the RUT over 2 days.  

    There's a reason we went aggressive with TZA, the RUT had (per the 5% Rule) the best chance of giving us a good pullback and, when we calculated the downside, we decided that EVEN IF we got burned on a Russell move over 1,200 – we'd still be happy to own TZA at net $12 as a primary hedge. So, at about $16, I'd be looking to take some off the table and probably roll to a more conservative hedge (and we still have a large Oct DXD spread).   

    This is one of the nuances of layering your hedges over time, we took the momentum trade on QQQ for the quick money and TZA will be more profits for short-term money (that's why they are naked – so we can cash them in easily) and DXD, at about $5,000 with $20,000 of upside potential, is our longer-term hedge and, if all goes well, will become free if we can now make $3,000 on TZA.  

    Depending on WHEN that happens, we then would have to consider other timeframes and other hedges but the general principle is to just keep switching to fresh horses along the way.  Call it the Pony Express Hedge.

    SQQQ/Wombat – Spreads are different.  As noted just above, we take different hedges with different time-frames for different reasons.  SQQQ is at $42.45 so "on track" if you think the Nas has more weakness ahead.  The spread is just $2 at the moment and I don't know what .72 really does for you vs your overall portfolio performance but the purpose of our short-term hedges in the STP is simply to pay for our long-term hedges, which we are then happy to lose money on as the market goes higher (and our LTP makes more money).

    We've been doing that all year, that's why the STP is even, even though the LTP is up 20%.  We use those small victories to pay for all those hedges we lost money on along the way.  

    TASR/Scott – It's certainly not a short-term stock.  They are in a heavy R&D cycle which then leads to a lot of marketing and education and training to make the sales of new products.  You have to either believe in them or not. 

    Mesa Police Department Expands Body-Worn Video Program With TASER's AXON Flex Cameras and

    TASER Books More Than 3,300 New Stun Gun Sales in Q2

    Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department Upgrades 883 TASER X26P Smart Weapons

    In the LTP, we have 10 2016 $13/20 bull call spreads with short $13 puts, we'll certainly be adding to that as we get a better price.  The Income Portfolio doesn't have TASR – when it stops going down, we'll add there too. 

    S&P/Brit – Thanks, hopefully not a psychic slip!  

    Butterfly/Rev – Same as it ever was but down 4% this cycle so let's look:

    • BTU – Bad timing buying back the Sept $17 calls ($1.09, now .55) but nothing we can do about it now.  I think we'll wait and see.  
    • CZR – Sept $20 puts hurting us, but only a little and maybe we'll consider selling lower calls but no great rush.
    • DIS – Over our line but weakening. 
    • JPM – Right on target.  
    • TXN – Close enough.  

    So the Butterfly Portfolio is being exactly as boring as it's supposed to be and no new positions unless the VIX improves or we get something exciting from earnings to play (a violent move in a usually non-volatile stock is usually good to play).  

    Timing/Toe – So don't play that game.  We pay almost no attention to the Butterfly Portfolio or the LTP or Income Portfolios and they make great returns because we sell premiums to other suckers who think they have good timing but are wrong 90% of the time.  It's not just you – 80% of put and call options expire worthless – SO SELL THEM!!!  

    Very good quote StJ.  

    Fundamentals/Scott – That's something we hear at the top of every rally "Funamentals don't matter – this time is different."  Fools some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time (like now).   Meanwhile, I posted that chart over the weekend of the most successful investors of all-time and 90% of them were fundamentalists.  

    I can certainly see how straight fundamentalists can get fed up with a market like this – thank goodness I'm not one of them!  I don't mind playing the game – I just don't like to get so wrapped up following the herd that I forget we're all heading to a cliff.  I mean, for God's sake, people just made this mistake 6 years ago and now they are acting like it never happened.  Same BS – "Fundamentals don't matter, Emerging Markets, China, New Tech, Globalization…" if I keep going I'm going to throw up!  

  63. Kyoto/Phil

    Did you read article carefully:

    One can also find “reimagined ryokan (Japanese-style hotels) and an emerging style scene that is cutting edge, even the Yakuza have state of the art weapons” said a magazine correspondent in a video clip posted on the magazine’s website.

    “I am deeply moved and happy” that Kyoto was picked as the best destination in the world, Kyoto Mayor Daisaku Kadokawa said in a statement. The mayor said the outcome was a result of coordination between the public and the corporate sector to improve the city’s appeal for tourists despite rampant gang warfare.

    “We hope to continue offering visitors the experience of Kyoto’s unique culture, arts, sights and hospitality,” Mr. Kadokawa said.

  64. PSW / PS
    We also spent the weekend hooking up his property with HD surveillance cams all through a central access point on a subnet that we can control from SF. We're running four different subnets ( one public, as were rigging our neighborhood up because of crime ) 
    UBNT just released their new line of hardware and it's fricken AMAZING. 
    That in combination with the CSCO news ( theres a secret SSH backdoor on ALL CSCO routers !! – just released yesterday ) I am super bullish.
    CSCO – Very bad. Very very bad.

  65. SQQQ/Craigs – The first thing you have to learn is to ignore the balance your broker puts on a position like that.  SQQQ is at $42.78 so the spread is worth $2.78 if it stays here and you wait PATIENTLY for the premiums to run out.  The only thing that matters is what you think SQQQ will do between now and August.  If you think the Nasdaq will go lower (now 4,380), then SQQQ can easily put you in the money for $4 and you gain $1.22 more (44%).  That's an exact number – it's math.  So you have $1.22 x however many contracts of upside protection against the Nas going lower against $2.78 x however many contracts against the Nas going higher.  If you aren't going to make AT LEAST 2x the $2.78 x however many contracts if the Nasdaq goes up from here on your longs – then you are overhedged (or poorly positioned).  

    As to AAPL, feel free to ask me anytime you think it's cheap as we always look for entries.  They're up from $75 pre-split to $95 and that's 26% so say 25% was $93.75 and 20% was $90 and those are the lines we want to watch for support and look how $90 was already tested on the first pullback so, if $93.75 holds up on this one – that's going to be a bullish sign.  Even if $93.75 fails, as long as $90 holds, that's going to be an entry opportunity but we'll still get rejected at $100 and likely pull back to $95 (weak pullback of $25 run) or $90 (strong pullback) so I don't see any reason to get excited about anything until they finally break over $100 and hold it.  

    Reno/Wombat – That would be nice, Reno could use the business and they sure have plenty of cheap land out there and easy airport access – good choice. 

    Kyoto/Rustle – Have you been?  It's a really amazing place, they do have a little of everything – even stylish Yakuza.  We stayed in a very old, traditional hotel that was like a mansion on a hill and had amazing meals every day and never used a car, taxi, bus or train once in a week – we just walked around town and took it all in – a fantastic city.  

    As to Yakuza, if you don't bother them, they generally don't bother you – here's a good article on one guy's encounter.  

    CSCO/Wombat – What do you mean bad?  Just that UBNT has better stuff?  I wouldn't worry, corporations are going to risk network security on new companies in any great numbers.  It takes years to gain the confidence of IT departments.  As with IBM, no one gets fired for going with CSCO.

    We have the UBNT 2016 $45/55 bull call spread in the Income Portfolio from 5/28 and we've been waiting on selling puts for a nice pullback since.  If it does come back down, I'd be happy to add it to the LTP too but I wouldn't get too excited – competition is very stiff in that space.  

    As to CSCO, they are testing the top of my expected range.  Maybe this earnings we get a chance to add them:

    CSCO/JMD – I love CSCO but I think they are fairly valued now at $23 with a range of $20-25 being fair.  I hope they miss so we can add them but I don't think they will.  No compelling reason to play them here.  

  66. Phil / CSCO
    Yes, the hardware is incredible, and yes, it will take time for enterprise adoption.
    Perhaps I wasn't strong enough in my language. A SSH backdoor to all CSCO's routers is comparable to a Snowden release. It will be interesting how Chambers handles this.

    It takes years to gain the confidence of IT departments

     and ironically it will take weeks to lose it.

  67. Wombat--I am confused — it sounds like you are super bullish on UBNT and super bearish on CSCO? Is that right?

  68. that is correct sir. sorry it sounded confusing.
    although i wouldn't be super bearish on CSCO, as they are so ingrained in IT systems, it would take some major undertaking to replace them. I'm just really interested in how these blue chips will handle 'oops, we have the ability to see all your systems and internal docs, but we didn't use it – honest'

    I am super bullish on UBNT, I was so impressed with their new releases – and they're beautiful.

  69. BBBY – $2B stock buyback plan… the next RSH?

  70. Kyoto/Phil

    Kyoto, never been, but I've never been to Europe either.

  71. addendum / UBNT
    the real interesting thing to me about UBNT is that it was created by an old AAPL friend that was in charge of their airport systems. With the new rollout of AAPLs 'home kit' it will be interesting to see how UBNT is incorporated, as its not competitive but extensions to everything AAPL will offer ( smart appliance, surveillance, wireless, control and automation )
    Very similar positioning as NEST ( also old AAPL engineers )

    Kyoto / 
    Wish I could post pics. Cherry Blossom Festival in Kyoto – nothing like in the entire world.

  72. SSH/Wombat – Fixes already circulating but I think they will have to replace the affected hardware, or at least offer to.  

    Speaking of AAPL, testing $95 from above now. 

    PCLN – Where's Jabob with an U F for PCLN?

    NFLX with a big wheee! too:

    CMG failed at $600:

    BBBY/Scott – Nope, we went over their business recently and decided they will survive.  Probably a good use of their cash to buy their own stock at this point, with a p/e of 10.  

    $2Bn is 20% of the stock – I sure wouldn't want to stand in their way (and we went long last week anyway).  

    Europe/Rustle – Never been?  That's sad, you do need to go.

    Cherry blossoms/Wombat – Hard to do it justice in a photo:

    This is what our hotel looked like:


  73. Hey Hey – Cleveland gets the RNC ! Way to go Cleveland }}}}

  74. phil – nice call on nq – your target was perfect – 3840ish

    bounce time?  3915-3840 = 75 points

    weak bounce 3855 strong bounce 3870

  75. Live Trading  Today at 1pm (EST) – ie. 30 minutes:  

  76. Kyoto

    This guy posted a tourism video on Kyoto, he is wearing the worst rug on his head, looks like a nice place:

  77. Yes, all of us Fundamentalists are quaking in our boots at the report that Fundamentals no longer matter wink:

    greatest invetors ranked

    THIS time WILL be different!  Really.

  78. Link/Phil: The link you posted at 12:36 is a replay of the 7/1/14 webcast.

  79. Nasdaq 100 almost all down, but of the few up, BBBY, COST, MDLZ, PAYX are showing well. Are these good defensive stocks?   Perhaps taking in the Spanish monies that should be coming out of Spanish banks following the announcement to tax bank deposits? 

  80. Webcast – Sorry try this one.  

    This week's selloff looking like March's

    • Leading this week's decline are a lot of the same names which led March's "momo" selloff, among them the biotechs (XBI -4.5%) and social media (SOCL -4.4%). Also familiar, small caps (IWM -1.5%) are off more than the other major indexes.
    • Doing their jobs are the low volatility ETFs like SPLV (SPLV) and USMV (USMV -0.2%), as well as defensive sectors like the utilities (XLU +0.6%).
    • Raymond James' typically bullish Jeffrey Saut is out with a note calling for the first decent pullback of the year – a  10-12% decline – to commence later this month or early August, and he suggests investors begin raising cash.
    • Biotech ETFs: XBIBBHFBTPBE
    • Strong employment report and coming Fed rate hikes? Long-term Treasurys have their eye on something else, with the yield on the 10-year note off another four basis points in early action to 2.57%. The yield touched 2.70% in wake of Thursday's fast nonfarm payroll number.
    • Previously: Treasury yields jump, gold slumps after strong jobs print
    • Checking Eurodollar futures for expectations of tighter monetary policy, they've backed off a bit from rate hikes as well, the June 2016 contract ahead by four basis points, but still pricing in a Fed Funds rate about 130 basis points higher in two years then it is now.
    • TLT +0.75%
    • Data from the Office for National Statistics has shown that U.K. manufacturing output fell 1.3% during May, the first drop since November last year and the biggest decline since January 2013. On the year, manufacturing output rose 3.7%, and has grown for nine consecutive months.
    • Industrial production fell 0.7% in May from April, the largest drop since August of last year. Industrial production grew 2.3% on the year, and has now grown for nine months.
    • The monthly falls in the industrial sector aren't a sign of weakness in the economy, says the Office for National Statistics, but rather it suggests a slowdown in the pace of growth among manufacturers in the second-quarter.
    • The British Chambers of Commerce's second-quarter economic survey also indicates a slower pace of growth in the manufacturing sector. Despite the slowdown, the BCC did not make changes to its GDP forecast of 0.8% for Q2 and 3.1% for the year, and warned the Bank of England not to raise interest rates to protect growth recovery.

    End of gold exodus helps 2014 ETF flows top 2013

    • ETF inflows year-to-date of $73.7B topped $67.9B from the same period one year ago, according to Credit Suisse, with Vanguard being the owner of four of this year's five best-sellers: The FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA), the REIT ETF (VNQ), the S&P 500 ETF (VOO), and the FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) each picked up at least $3.3B in inflows. Also in the top five is SSgA's Energy Select SPDR (XLE) with $3.2B.
    • This year's overall numbers aren't as relatively impressive when taking gold out of the equation, as $25B exited the SPDR Gold Trust one year ago, while flows this year have been relatively flat.

    Solar stocks drop; China reportedly thinking of cutting targets

    • OTR Global reports the Chinese government is thinking of cutting its 2014 solar installation targets due to credit availability issues.
    • The government previously set a 2014 installation target of 14GW (8GW distributed systems, 6GW utility). Deutsche has already expressed doubts about its feasibility following a soft Q1.
    • U.S. and Japanese shipments have been faring better, but new DoC tariffs could take a toll on near-term Chinese sales to the former market.
    • Solar stocks are lower amid a market selloff: YGE -5.3%. CSIQ -4.7%. SCTY -3.5%. FSLR-3.5%. SPWR -3.2%. JKS -4.6%. HSOL -4.4%. SOL -3.5%. DQ -3.4%. CSUN -5%. TSL -2.7%.ENPH -3%.
    • Solar ETFs: KWTTAN
    • Update: OTR's note comes amid a report the Chinese government plans to hike its subsidies for power sales stemming from rooftop solar projects by up to 55%, putting their revenue (on a per-kWh basis) on par with ground-mounted projects.
    • Casino stocks open trading lower after Deutsche Bank lowers estimates on Las Vegas Sands and comments from MGM China's Pansy Ho on travel trends in Macau create a ripple of worry.
    • Bank of America isn't helping sentiment with a new note out to clients in which it forecasts July revenue in Macau will fall 11% Y/Y.
    • Decliners: Las Vegas Sands (LVS) -2.6%, Wynn Resorts (WYNN) -2.3%, MGM Resorts (MGM)-2.2%, Galaxy Entertainment (GXYEF) -1.5%.
    • Following checks with Japanese hard drive component suppliers Nidec and TDK, and research firm TSR, CLSA reports Seagate (STX -0.9%) is cutting its Sep. quarter forecast for industry hard drive shipments to ~133M from a prior 140M-145M.
    • In April, Seagate guided for June quarter industry shipments to be "down a few points" from a March quarter level of 138M, but to also reach 140M-145M in each of the next 2 quarters. The market has been pressured by SSD cannibalization and weak enterprise storage sales, but has also benefited from stabilizing PC sales and healthy demand from Internet giants.
    • Seagate and Western Digital (WDC -1.5%) are only down moderately on a rough day for tech. Seagate reports on July 17, and Western on July 30.
    • Other names with strong industry exposure: MRVLHTCH
    • The Chinese government has told China Mobile (CHL -0.4%), China Unicom (CHU +1.3%), and China Telecom (CHA -0.3%) to slash phone subsidies and advertising by a combined RMB40B ($6.4B) in 3 years, Bloomberg reports.
    • The government came to its decision after concluding carriers are spending too much to promote the iPhone (AAPL -1.8%) and other high-end hardware. While a large chunk of Chinese phone sales are unsubsidized, subsidies have been growing as carriers try to sign up higher-income subs to 3G/4G postpaid plans.
    • A possible motivation: Apple and Samsung control much of the high-end Chinese phone market, while local firms (both OEM and white-label) control much of the mid-range and low-end.
    • China Mobile, which began selling the iPhone in January, has forecast its subsidy spend will rise 29% in 2014 to RMB29B ($4.7B). China Telecom says it has already been "implementing stringent control on [its] selling expenses to ensure operating profitability.”
    • UBS, generally upbeat about Apple this year, thinks subsidy cuts could slow Apple's Chinese momentum. The company Greater China sales rose 13% Y/Y in FQ2 to $9.3B.
    • The Bloomberg report comes as Samsung says it expects to report soft Q2 smartphone/tablet sales. Among other things, the company blames tough low-end/mid-range phone competition, and weak tablet market demand caused by phablet cannibalization and low upgrade rates. CIRP has observed iPad upgrade cycles are notably longer than iPhone upgrade cycles.

  81. Webcast time!

  82. carnage in momo land again today…india may have made tradable top…big surge in euro cds

    epicenter of current bubble…high yld debt

  83. Quote of the day II

    Neil Irwin, “Welcome to the Everything Boom — and, quite possibly, the Everything Bubble. Around the world, nearly every asset class is expensive by historical standards.”  (The Upshot)

  84. Interesting statistic:

    The number of job openings in the U.S. economy climbed to the highest level in 7 years, even as the number of people being hired was little changed from recent months, according to the Department of Labor‘s monthly job openings and labor turnover survey, known as JOLTS.

  85. wow egle down 33 percent at 1.89

  86. LUV – interesting spike down this morning.. looks exactly like clearing out stop losses to the 50ma.

  87. scottmi 

    do you think Ual is a short

  88. Jabo

    ANOTHER fire on TSLA

  89. UAL/qc – well I don't follow them, or the industry as a whole (though I generally think all airlines are shorts just about all the time).. have been playing LUV long as a trend following play for a while now. UAL sure looks like a good short entry here: in a downtrend, just bounced off the 5ma. not holding the swing low of 39.20 from april.. yeah, i'd sure buy puts here with a stop at a close over the 200ma.

  90. TSLA/wombat – as wear and tear on the batteries/vehicle accumulate from just driving around, I wonder if we can expect more?

  91. i think shadow would have a 'resounding yes' on that 

  92. another fire today?

  93. ya – came across a feed, can't find it again. perhaps they were referring to the one yesterday.

  94. EGLE/Tommy – Wow, bad news for GNKOQ being extrapolated by manipulators.  I'd like to buy more but have to wait for the dust to settle:

    Genco Bankruptcy Ruling Provides Insight Into Value Of Eagle Bulk Shipping Shares

    Eagle Bulk Shipping: The Grim Reaper Says You're Next

    Check out the author of the SA article:

    This is the guy moving EGLE 30% – what a joke!  NOTHING actually happened to EGLE but people treat any author on SA as if he's some sort of expert.  That's why I left them, they were using my reputation (and other good writers) to give credence to their pump and dump schemes.  I just can't believe they still haven't all been arrested.  

    LUV/Scott – I'll be very interested to see the airline earnings this Q.  

    TSLA/Wombat – I still don't see news of another fire.  TSLA stock back to $220.  Are you sure you didn't start that rumor?  

    Meanwhile, indexes having big trouble at those bounce lines.  

  95. Oh sorry, forgot to make my point that this idiot's article from SA appears as news right on Yahoo Finance's main feed and probably found on Google Finance, MSM, etc.  I was watching Bloomberg earlier and their source for a story was "Seeking Alpha says.." as if you can actually rely on what someone there says!  Dow 50,000 if this is how we're going to make our investing decisions…

  96. Phil / TSLA
    It came across on of my RSS feeds quickly. I think they might of been referring to the one yesterday that hit a pole and fricken cracked in half.
    poor TSLA 


  97. was there a fire at NFLX and PCLN too?

  98. jabo
    arson is not an investment strategy ; >

  99. Fire/Wombat – Well, in that case please try to confirm information before putting it out during a broadcast – it makes you and I both look foolish. 

    LOL Jabob.  

  100. apologies Phil
    I'm going to torch my neighbors TSLA right now.
    we're even.

  101. COST – really running up today.

  102. Sellers come back from their break.  Still no volume. 

  103. Phil

    Check this post to Pharm

    July 8th, 2014 at 10:02 am

    same topic as EGLE

  104. Phil / TF
    By 5% logic, /TF had a very strong bounce, but now is failing. 
    Am I calculating wrong ?

  105. GIS – wrong side of 50ma. can they raise prices faster than inflation?

  106. This is a post on FB from Sheridan.  Kinda interesting.  No real opinion, just sharing….

    One strategy to utilize in the upcoming earnings season for speculative trades is the double diagonal. Many traders overlook the double diagonal as a way to play the selling of a strangle. A strangle being the sale of out of the money calls and puts on an underlying. For example, lets say XYZ stock is trading at $250 on the day before the earnings release. One way to select your strikes is to use the market maker expected move. You can derive that by adding together the at the money call and at the money put. Adding those together gives you an idea of how much the market makers think a move could be in either direction after earnings numbers are release. In our example lets say the atm call is selling at a mid price of $5.00 and the atm put is selling at $5.00, add them together and you can see the market makers are a projecting a possible move of $10. So if XYZ is trading at $250 you sell a call above $260 strike and a put below the $240 strike in the nearest expiration period.. Then buy your diagonal wings in the next week or month out. The longs will help cut your margin, if you just sold the strangle alone you would be naked, which is both dangerous and has a high margin cost. Something to consider using in the 2nd quarter earnings season. Options provide many ways to play opinions you may have on the market and at Sheridan Mentoring we educate students to become proficient in the different strategies.

  107. NWBO/qc….early on, when they were in the pennies, we played them.  They doubled.  We sold half, the stock went back down, and we lost the rest, moving out of the position.  Someone has been pumping them every since….this stock is now one that I believe Adam Feuerstein and I agree on…it is a dog, with fleas, and very loose stools.

  108. Great WSJ paper today if anyone gets it.  Good section on future trends and technology and they have a partial reprint of the first WSJ which was today in 1889, it was 4 pgs long.

  109. SPY July 198 Calls for 47c….TA says 1960 held….voo doo, whatever, it is a line that is on the charts and a good risk reward.

  110. IRBT movement today has got to just be a pullback from the pretty great appreciation it's seen recently yes?

    Viewing the bottom excluding overshoot of 32 to the recent peak of 42, it's a $10 run expecting a $4 strong pullback.  I take it I should look for consolidation in the near term and likely trailing back up through 40 to resume the upward movement or a pullback past $38 as a warning sign?

  111. Here is an example of my buying calls now…in the channel after a pull back.


  112. Best game in World Cup in 5 min.


    Brazil VS Germany………bets?

  113. Yodi ? Got some cash you want to lose ?

  114. NWBO/QC – It's a shame but Financial Media has become such a scam and with Murdoch buying the Journal and Bloomberg using SA as a source – where they hell can we go to get real information?  

    /TF/Wombat – Depends on context.  From 1,200 to 1,160 was 40 points so 8 points weak to 1,168 and 16 points strong to 1,176.  Kind of came between the two at best, that's not very strong.  What really matters is whether weak bounce holds and, if not, then more downturn likely to come.  From 1,200 5% down is 1,140 so that's our next stop but, if we stay around 1,168, then drop is decelerating and we can assume 1,140 will hold and then we'd look for 12-point bounces to 1,152 and 1,164, which means that zone between 1,164 and 1,168 should be the point of contention on /TF.  

    GIS/Scott – Input prices coming down a bit, fuel down a bit, should be good for them but not a bargain until $50. 

    Double diags/Burr – Those work, though I prefer to use ratio backspreads where I actually have an opinion on earnings rather than tying money up in binary events.  

    WSJ/Rustle – I love that old paper! 

    IRBT/JPH – Sure, when the whole market is down, can't blame people for taking some profits off the table on a recent winner.  

    SPY/Pharm – Are you saying your call buying is causing all those up moves?  Impressive!  cheeky

    World Cup/Advill – Is that thing still on?  I thought America lost?  

  115. Wombat TSLA

    Wait until charges go past 1,500 times if they make that many. What is the warranty? I can't imagine the look on ones face, "You need a new battery, $40,000."

  116. Thanks, Pharm. I like the spy risk/reward too.

  117. AA with a big beat!  

  118. YEH…..I bought the 15 call on AA.

  119. I love the authenticity of Kyoto. I’ll add it for my future travel destinations.

  120. OMG 29 minutes

    5 – 0 Germany. !!!!!

  121. A national tragedia is coming to Brazil!,

    Congrats.  Wombat

  122. So…everybody is calling for a big correction/pull back on CNBC.  I'm thinking it's time to close out my couple short positions!

  123. I bought the 14 put on alcoa…boooooo

  124. Phil // TSLA

    aha ! I was not crazy – this is what i saw on the feed. amazingly no coverage.

  125. People jumping off bridges in Brazil as we speak… I am shocked. Germany is good, but Brazil was horrible. They have been running on the host nation wave for a couple of games, but ran into a wall today!

  126. That AA beat could be a good signal for the economy. Demand from aeronautics and automobile industry is good. Aluminum is on so many consumer products as well…

  127. Touchdown Germany. Who says soccer is boring. Invest. in Brasil…with the thought this loss sends Dilma out of office…

  128. Wombat / Fires

    Sorry man, but if you read the article it only talks about the same two fires already reported… the "half split" and the rear ending of a Toyota…

  129. ECA

    Unusual Activity Alert: Maintaining Long Delta in Encana Corp (ECA)

    Share on facebookShare on twitterShare on emailShare on printMore Sharing Services


    Posted 4 hours, 54 mins ago by The Options Insider in Unusual Activity

    Shares of Encana Corp (ECA) are up .01 to 22.28 today. ECA is near the upper end of the 52 week range.

    Today paper traded 22500 ECA Jan 2015 23 calls for 1.50 and sold 12500 Jul 22 calls and 10000 Jul 21 calls.  The ADV is 4457 contracts. The OI is 16453 on the Jul 21s, 32457 on the Jul 22s and 60 on the Jan 2015 23s.

    The volume went up in three large blocks.  While the trades were not marked spread, they did go up at the same time on the same exchange.  If the trade was a rolling customer they went up for a .10 credit.  The trader wanted to maintain a long delta (buying Jan 2015s) and was most likely closing the short term options.

     30-day implied volatility is 28%.   10-day implied volatility is 21%.  30 day implied volatility is trading above the 10 Day Historical volatility.

    Encana Corporation (Encana) is a North American energy producer. 

  130. akademia // TSLA
    thats what I was referring to.

  131. If every 'football' game scored 5 goals in 30min, I'd be a huge huge fan.

    I just cannot get excited about a score of 0-1

  132. Score / Burrben – Funny that we celebrate it when a pitcher throws a no-hitter but find it boring when a goalie like Howard plays so well that he keeps the score to 1-0… 

    I have watched a lot of sport since I have come to this country – baseball, hockey, football, basketball and more. I learned all the rules, the traditions, the best players and I find that it makes it a lot more enjoyable once you understand the entire culture around a specific sport. You appreciate more the subtlety of the game. But it takes a long time. When my family and friends come visit, I usually take them to a baseball game but most of the time they find it boring because unless you understand the tactics involved, the pitching strategy and all the rules, there is not much going on. And it would take too much time to explain everything. But I guess it makes for a nice dinner! 

  133. comment on my rant on SA about editorial integrity

    "SA has long been deteriorated into the level of Yahoo financial "

  134. StJean/AA

    Didn't you put up some information once on company stock performance after being removed from a major index? After watching AA since being removed from the Dow, I might want to pay more attention to this.

  135. StJ // Home run
    I can totally appreciate that, baseball being one of the few sports without a clock. I played when I was a kid and traveled internationally, so it's in my blood. Also, my fondest memories are of me and my dad listening to baseball on the radio when I was little. I used to have the complete Detroit Tigers roster taped to the top of my bunk-bed. You're correct that you have to know baseball deep to really really enjoy it ; its a shame that most people don't get there. Then on the other hand there are the nuts that can tell you Hank Aaron's batting average in 1963. Freaks, but I love 'em – keeps the game alive.
    I find that the problem with baseball these days is the same that all American sports are suffering from – loyalty. Today they are traded like commodities. When I was a kid Aurelio Rodriguez was a Tiger. I simply couldn't fathom that he would be anything else.
    It's hard to give your heart to a gypsy I guess ;%

  136. From Bloomberg, Jul 8, 2014, 11:39:52 PM

    Hatta Rajasa, vice presidential candidate, from left, Prabowo Subianto, presidential candidate, Sudharto P. Hadi, debate moderator, Joko Widodo, governor of Jakarta and presidential candidate, and Jusuf Kalla, vice presidential candidate, sing the national anthem of Indonesia during a debate in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Saturday, July 5, 2014. Indonesians will vote for their next president today. Photographer: Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg

    Asian stocks fell, with the regional
    index heading for the steepest one-day drop in two months, as
    global equities drop amid concern valuations are too high. The
    yuan gained to a three-month high and copper fluctuated after
    Chinese inflation data came in close to economists’ estimates.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  137. From Bloomberg, Jul 9, 2014, 12:02:33 AM

    July 9 (Bloomberg) — Donna Kwok, a China economist at UBS AG, talks about the nation’s economy and currency.
    Consumer-price inflation in China slowed last month, data today showed, while the pace of declines for producers decreased. Kwok speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    China’s factory-gate prices fell in
    June at the slowest pace in more than two years, adding to signs
    of stabilization in the world’s second-largest economy.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  138. From Bloomberg, Jul 8, 2014, 11:03:33 PM

    China’s President Xi Jinping called
    for greater military communication with the U.S., saying as he
    opened high-level talks between the two countries that any
    conflict would be a global disaster.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  139. From Bloomberg, Jul 8, 2014, 4:35:41 PM

    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.4 percent to 1,969.08 at 9:46 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 79.99 points, or 0.5 percent, to 16,944.22. Trading in S&P 500 stocks was in line with the 30-day average at this time of day.Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

    U.S. shares extended a selloff today, with the Nasdaq Composite Index sliding the most in two months, as Raymond James & Associates said equities are vulnerable to losses and Citigroup Inc. cited investor concerns for a “severe” pullback.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  140. From Bloomberg, Jul 8, 2014, 7:49:05 PM

    Pedestrians walk past the Barker Block loft building in downtown Los Angeles, California, U.S. Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg

    Henry Nunez, a real estate agent in Arcadia, California, met with so many homebuyers from China that he bought a Mandarin-English translation app for his phone.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  141. From Bloomberg, Jul 9, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    Here’s what to look for when the
    Federal Reserve releases minutes from the Federal Open Market
    ’s June 17-18 meeting at 2 p.m. today in Washington.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  142. From Bloomberg, Jul 8, 2014, 10:59:01 PM

    Housing sales in Hong Kong are rising after government efforts to cool soaring prices led transactions to plunge last year to the lowest since at least 2002. Photographer: Jerome Favre/Bloomberg

    On a Saturday morning in mid-June,
    thousands wait, crammed into Hong Kong’s Fortune Metropolis
    mall, across Victoria Harbor from the main business district,
    their eyes locked on large elevated screens. Cheers erupt when
    numbers flash, indicating the lucky ticket holders in the crowd.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  143. From Bloomberg, Jul 3, 2014, 7:36:09 AM

    April 12 (Bloomberg) — The villagers of Halliberu in southern India are on the crest of an electricity revolution. Bangalore-based Simpa Networks Inc. has been installing solar power equipment in their non-electrified houses. ¶From the poorest parts of Africa and Asia to the most-developed regions in the U.S. and Europe, solar units and small-scale wind and biomass generators promise to extend access to power to more people than ever before. Bloomberg’s Natalie Obiko Pearson reports on the story featured in the May issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine. (Source: Bloomberg)

    India’s ambition to skip a generation of electricity technology starting with solar panels on telecommunications towers is being hampered by dust and urban sprawl.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  144. Watch this video at

    Why the Chips Are Down for Atlantic City

    July 8: Cape Resorts Group Co-Founder Curtis Bashaw and Imax CEO Richard Gelfond discuss Atlantic City casino closings.

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  145. From Bloomberg, Jul 9, 2014, 1:12:55 AM

    China’s benchmark stock index fell
    the most in two weeks, led by technology and health-care
    companies, after the release of inflation data.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  146. Watch this video at

    In Midterms, More Money, More Problems?

    July 8: Bloomberg’s Yang Yang reports on the 2014 midterm elections.

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  147. Watch this video at

    GOP Candidates Attacked Over Wealth

    July 8: Bloomberg’s Yang Yang discusses the impact of money on the 2014 midterm elections.

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  148. Watch this video at

    Silicon Valley Teen Interns: Making $6K/Month at 13

    July 8 (Bloomberg) –- Bloomberg’s Sarah Frier reports from the Sun Valley Conference and discusses why some Silicon Valley interns are so highly paid. She speaks on “Bloomberg West.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  149. Watch this video at

    Time to Get Rid of Your Euros?

    July 8: On today’s “Insight & Action,” Adam Johnson looks at Mario Draghi, the ECB balance sheet and why you may not want to hold Euros.

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  150. From Bloomberg, Jul 8, 2014, 10:40:15 AM

    June 24 (Bloomberg) — Kenneth Bentsen, president of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, talks about the need for government and private industry to work together to fight cybersecurity threats.
    Bentsen speaks with Stephanie Ruhle and Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Wall Street’s biggest trade group has proposed a government-industry cyber war council to stave off terrorist attacks that could trigger financial panic by temporarily wiping out account balances, according to an internal document.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  151. From Bloomberg, Jul 8, 2014, 7:02:43 PM

    Vanessa Selbst honed her poker skills while attending Yale University, eventually playing full time after graduating in 2005 with a political-science degree. Photographer: Joe Giron/WSOP via Bloomberg

    Vanessa Selbst spent part of her opening day at the World Series of Poker’s main event fighting for social justice which, along with an aggressive playing style, has come to define her career.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  152. From Bloomberg, Jul 9, 2014, 12:01:02 AM

    Aldo Lavaggi said that thanks to his tiny house, he “earns more than he spends,” as a folk musician and can splurge on things like gourmet cheese from the local organic market. His home features a lofted bed, composting toilet, wood burning stove and full sink, and runs on a car battery and solar power. Photographer: Nina Glinski/Bloomberg

    Doug Immel recently completed his custom-built dream home, sparing no expense on details like cherry-wood floors, cathedral ceilings and stained-glass windows — in just 164 square feet of living space including a loft.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  153. From Bloomberg, Jul 8, 2014, 6:05:43 PM

    Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during an event at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., on July 2, 2014. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    House Republicans proposed legislation to limit how the Federal Reserve makes monetary policy, a week before Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver her semiannual testimony to lawmakers.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  154. From Bloomberg, Jul 8, 2014, 3:38:46 PM

    Consumer borrowing in the U.S. surged again in May as Americans took out more loans to purchase cars.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  155. From Bloomberg, Jul 8, 2014, 4:21:06 PM

    In an op-ed for, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin said “it’s time to impeach.”

    Could Republicans really impeach the president on the grounds of, well, just because they want to? Alas, this week, it’s looking a little more likely that could happen, and a little less likely that Democrats are just being paranoid about it.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  156. From Bloomberg, Jul 8, 2014, 2:01:28 PM

    Source: JP Morgan Chase & Co.

    It has become commonly accepted that stocks are very expensive, overbought and perhaps even in a bubble.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  157. Burrben, I agree with you. I'd be a real futbol fan if it scores like today's Germany game. I can't understand why most of soccer game scores 1 or 2 in the freakin 120 mins. I guess I've been influenced by watching and playing bball since I was a kid. Anyways, I only find soccer interesting in World Cup….. lol

  158. StJ.  I think I figured out why we don't see eye to eye on sports.  I think there are two types of sports fans.  The first kind really cares about the game, the details, the history, the 'defense', and watches espn during the week to really understand the two teams who will be playing on the weekend.  That's not me.

    I'm the fan who likes watching sports because it's a fun time to hang out with friends, a reason to meet up with a group of people with a common interest, and generally share in the excitement of scoring and winning.

    Gathering 10 friends at a bar and having beers without a score in 1.5hrs isn't generally a "fun" time.  We have fun together, but walk out saying like…. "well, that wasn't as fun as we hoped".  

    All sports can be REALLY boring.  Baseball, american football, hockey, etc.  Soccer has a high likleyhood though of ending up with a low score.  Generally with the others, you get to celebrate something at least twice during a game.  And if I'm not celebrating……

  159. Good morning! 

    Futures so flat it looks fake – we'll have to see what happens at the open but Fed minutes at 2 make this a wild kind of day.  

    Hang Seng dropped 1.5%, Shanghai down 1.25%, India down 0.5%, Singapore down 0.25%, Nikkei 0% – this is exactly what we expect in the 5% Rule when bots control the markets.  

    Asian Stocks Drop as Corn Extends Slide; Copper Advances. Asian stocks fell, with the regional index declining a second day, extending a global retreat in equities amid concern valuations are too high. The yen held gains as copper climbed while corn futures continued their longest slump since November.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.4 percent by 10:06 a.m. in Tokyo, set for the steepest one-day drop in 2 1/2 weeks as Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.5 percent in a third day of declines.

    CARSON BLOCK: China's Fake GDP Is Over-Inflated By 25%

    End to China’s property boom has barely begun (FT)

    Europe is down a bit, let by FTSE down 0.5% but Italy up 0.5%, so balance of a sort.  All of them have sold off since the open into lunch.  


    I don't know what the Government is going to do for money when they run out of banks to fine:

    Citi(C) near multi-billion dollar deal to resolve mortgage probe. The Justice Department and Citigroup Inc. are close to a multibillion-dollar deal to settle allegations the bank sold shoddy mortgages in the run-up to the financial crisis, according to people familiar with the matter. ?

    Still, all about the Fed today.

    • MBA Mortgage Applications:
    • Composite Index: +1.9% vs. -0.2% last week.
    • Purchase Index: +4% vs. -0.7% last week.
    • Refinance Index: +4% vs. +0.1% last week.
    • Fixed 30-year mortgage rates 4.32% vs. 4.28% last week.


    "Don't Worry, Be Happy" Fed Financial Stress Index At Record Low For 3rd Week

    Is The Fed Going To Attempt A Controlled Collapse


    • Argentina will meet with court appointed debt mediator Daniel Pollack for the second time this week to discuss its dispute with holdout investors. The country is trying all it can to avoid a debt default by the end of the month.
    • U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa previously blocked a June 30 coupon payment that Argentina tried to make on its restructured bonds, triggering a 30 day grace period for the country to finally negotiate with holdouts.
    • Benchmark Discount bonds rose 1.6% to 88.65 on Argentina's local over-the-counter market, while Par bonds were up 1.3% to 49.90. Traders cited optimism over the talks as the cause of the increase.
    • ETFs: ARGT


    Stock Buyback Shocker: Companies Using Secured Bank Loans To Repurchase Stock

    Debt: Eight Reasons This Time Is Different

    What "Rosy" Job Numbers? Wal-Mart CEO Slams Recovery Mirage


    10 States Where Home Values Have Surged Past Their Housing Bubble Peaks

    Hedge funds attract $72.2 bln in first five months of year -dataInvestors poured $72.2 billion into hedge funds worldwide in the first five months of 2014, marking their strongest five-month start to a year since 2007 partly on fears of a downturn in stock and bond prices, data from a survey showed on Tuesday.

    Rail Traffic Is Growing Like Crazy (Business Insider)


    • The Container Store (TCS) -15% AH after missing FQ1 earnings estimates and issuing downside guidance for FY 2015, as the specialty retailer says it is "experiencing a retail funk."
    • FQ1 net sales rose 9% Y/Y to $173.4M, but same-store sales slipped 0.8% and gross margin narrowed to 58.1% from 58.4%.
    • See FY 2015 EPS of $0.49-$0.54 vs. $0.57 analyst consensus estimate, and FY 2015 revenues of $820M-$830M vs. $831M consensus.
    • "We thought our sluggish sales were all because of weather and calendar shifts that began last November and continued into the spring, but now we've come to realize it's more than weather and calendar," CEO Kip Tindell says.


    Alcoa(AA) earnings easily beat Street estimatesAlcoa reported quarterly earnings and revenue that handily beat analysts' expectations on Tuesday.

    Boeing, Emirates complete $56B order - That's almost a whole year of normal revenues in one order!  

    • Boeing (BA) has finalized a $56B order for 150 777X planes from Dubai's Emirates airline. Included in the deal are purchase rights that Emirates could exercise for an additional 50 airplanes – which would bring the value of the order to $75B.
    • The new acquisition deals a harsh blow to Airbus (EADSF), after Emirates scrapped a $16B purchase for 70 Airbus A350's in June, and was looking to replace the order.



    • The Senate has now called up GM (GM) execs to testify why it took the company nearly 11 years to recall cars produced with a faulty ignition switch. GM CEO Mary Barra, General Counsel Mike Millikin and Delphi Automotive CEO Rodney O'Neal will testify before a subcommittee on July 17.
    • The Senate is expected to investigate the issue in depth, compared to the House which held its hearing last month.
    • This will also be the first time the public has heard from Delphi, which manufactured the switch.


    Should be good for PFE! - Pfizer lawsuit dismissed
    • Pfizer's (PFE) long-running lawsuit pertaining to its pain-relieving drugs Celebrex and Bextra has been dismissed prior to its scheduled trial in September.
    • The company was accused of misleading investors about the safety of the drugs, although the case was thrown out after the plaintiffs failed to procure evidence relating to the danger and damages of the painkillers.
    • PFE +0.3% AH


    • Northwest Bio (NWBO) CEO Linda Powers denies charges contained in yesterday's Seeking Alpha article by Richard Pearson that the driving force behind gains in the stock price is a string of promotional pieces, asserting that the author didn't mention "the real reason, that the company has made tremendous operational progress."
    • Pearson contended that "many of the authors who have written on Northwest are using fake identities and fake credentials. They pretend to be biologists, other scientists, or fund managers. In fact, they are just paid writers."
    • Powers says NWBO has a business relationship with an outside investor relations firm that promotes the company on social media sites, but that writers are not commissioned to write puff pieces, as Pearson alleges.
    • NWBO has dropped nearly 7% since Pearson's story was posted Monday morning.


    KLA-Tencor(KLAC) says June quarter booking above expectationsChip gear maker KLA-Tencor Corp said on Tuesday its bookings in the fiscal fourth quarter were close to $895 million or $900 million, higher than expected and helped by demand from contract chip manufacturers.


    • Facebook (FB) ad campaign software provider Nanigans reports (.pdf) its clients saw a 146% Y/Y increase in Facebook ad click rates in Q2 to 0.36%. Click rates were only at 0.24% in Q1, and 0.23% in Q4.
    • The average price of ads sold on a CPM basis rose 57% Q/Q and 218% Y/Y to $1.95, and the average price for cost-per-click (CPC) ads rose 7% Q/Q and 29% Y/Y to $0.55.
    • E-commerce ad clients (a major vertical) saw a 111% increase in click rates, a 175% increase in CPMs, and a 30% increase in CPCs. Gaming ad clients saw a 579% increase in click rates, a 367% increase in CPMs, and a 30% increase in CPCs. Mobile strength fueled the gaming click rate and CPM growth.
    • Sponsored (unpublished) news feed page posts made up ~50% of tracked ad spend, and app install ads ~30%.  56% of spending was on mobile.
    • Nanigans also issued positive numbers for Facebook ahead of its Q1 beat. Q2 results are due on July 23.
    • Apple (AAPL) has filed a patent for products housed entirely in glass to be used to hold the internals of a mobile device or to house a TV or monitor.
    • One of the biggest challenges with the new design is to make it both lightweight and durable.

    Oh no!


  160. Wombat, yea, I grew up in Detroit area and could not imagine Al Kaline going to any other team, Mantle, Berra, all the same. Now they are just commodities and and go with the highest bidder. I really don't care who wins anymore but maybe because I'm not a kid either. I just want the team to win that I bet on – more interesting fort me that way.

  161. Kyoto/Invest – Japan, overall, is a fantastic place to visit.  

    TSLA/Wombat- So I suppose the final verdict is that you are, in fact, crazy?  surprise

    AA/StJ – Seems like more of a sign that they've done a wonderful job moving towards higher-markup finished goods (engines, auto bodies, etc) and a little bit about a recovery from a too-low price in aluminum.  

    ECA/Burr – Bound to be volatile with Nat Gas dropping back to $4.15.  I'd be careful of reports from those guys when they say "ECA is near the upper end of the 52 week range" when they actually have just dropped 10% in the last few weeks.  Certainly not how I'd characterize the action, more like a very weak 0.28 bounce off a $2.83 drop (10% bounce) and the $2.83 retrace is exactly 40% of the $7 run for the year.  Weak bouncing off a 40% retrace is not at all bullish.  

    For pricing ECA, I'd be more concerned with the fact that last time Nat Gas was below $4.20 was March, when ECA was below $20.  There's no reason at all to think nat gas will go up this summer – unless we have some big hurricanes that shut production but it's too early in the season for that anyway.  

    Big Chart – Cobras may be coiling up for a spit.  

    Soccer/StJ – Baseball is also mind-numbingly dull but has the benefit of more bursts of excitement than soccer as well as players who stand still long enough to give you a chance to think about those nuances.  I used to be one of those geeks who knew the stats of every player but my brain had to dump that information for other things as I got older.  I still use hall of fame player stats for passwords though.  I can't sit through baseball anymore but I still like the highlights and the reason I do still love football is that, with Tivo, you can get through a whole game in 40 minutes or less.  

    Actually, I think that would be a good service, editing football games down to the actual plays – not even the huge amount of time the clock is running while people stand around huddling or waiting for refs to move the chains.  Just snap/play, snap/play, snap/play – I'd buy that channel!  Too bad Aereo got smacked down by the court – doesn't bode well for my football business plan…

    Oh, and if you want to make baseball exciting for your friends, you should go with my friend who has front-row seats on the 1st base line at Yankee Stadium.  At least 3 or 4 times a game, a ball comes at you at about 110 miles per hour – that will keep them on their toes!  My friend and I have to protect the wives, who obliviously yack away while line drives fly at their heads.  

    SA/Wombat – Far worse than Yahoo but shame on Yahoo for promoting them (SA pays them to be featured there).  

    Freaks/Wombat – Ever play Strat-O-Matic?  I used to love that game.  Broke baseball down into pure statistics.  It was the original fantasy league (and they had football too).  

    Soccer/Invest – Would the game be better with more scoring?  I don't think so.  Imagine if the net were bigger and the goalie missed 5 or 6 a game on each side?  Not really an improvement.  I think soccer is fine as is – it's just that we didn't grow up with it and so we don't really get into it like other countries.  

    Good point Burr.  

    Good point Jomp.  Free agency did kill my love of the game.  I know the exact moment, when the Mets let Tom Seaver go to Cincinnati (1977), that was the last straw for me.  I was already disgusted by the Yankees  buying pennants and I THOUGHT the Mets had integrity.  Seaver was traded mid-season and went 14-3 for Cincinnati, winning 21 for the year.  What kind of morons let a guy like that go (and it was over nothing)?  I remember going to the game when Seaver pitched against the Mets and cheering for the Reds.  He kicked their asses, striking out 11 and hitting a double!  That is absolutely the year I gave up on baseball.

  162. C´ can´t compare beisbol to soccer ( football in the rest of the world), in my case I never understand Beisbol, and have some relatives in Miami who are fans and has been "explaining" me the game….was with them in Dolphns Stadium, ate my hotdog etc…..still don´t understand it .

    So agree with you Phil is one of the thngs that comes when you are a child.

  163. Sarah Palin may be a bible spouting moron, but she certainly looks good in a tight white shirt! If she ever does get elected president (God forbid) I would volunteer to be her special intern, ala Monica Lewinsky! If she opens a couple more buttons on that shirt seen in the picture posted earlier, I may have to rethink my entire political agenda!

  164. Craig / dirty mind:


    I thought exactly the same LOL…

  165. Yikes!  There must be a real shortage of good-looking women where you guys are from.  NYC is full of good-looking women (and much smarter than LA!).  

  166. C´mon….I´m living in Barcelona  beach side….nudist beach.

    Just joking Craig…



  167. Just listened to a car show and America gets less than Europe in the BMW I8. Only 5KW battery, 3 cylinder engine but the same price, $137,000. They didn't bother to tell test results but this is not even close to a good deal. One must really want carbon fiber.