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  1. Phil

    Meanwhile, what's going on in the markets?

    The ECB Rate Decision is 7:45 and official expectations are they hold steady at 0.5% (higher than us or Japan).  Whispers are for a cut to 0.25% and Germany is already negative on their bonds but anything other than a cut is likely to disappoint.  

    Even more disappointing would be Draghi not formally announcing those "drastic measures" he keeps promising.  Keep in mind, Europe is in a Recession, this will be their 2nd consecutive declining quarter and that's what a Recession is.  He speaks at 8:30 and he'd better be coming out in one of those suits that are made of money at this point.  

    Oh yeah, and it better be made of Dollars because Euros aren't worth much! 

    That's one of the problems with stimulus when reality kicks in (ie. when printing money finally makes your currency devalue) – the more stimulus you make the less effective each unit is as the units lose their value and then the print more and they become more worthless and the problem is (going back to Dollars) that the US GDP is $17Tn and the Money Supply is about $12Tn (up from $10Tn a few years ago) and the people's net worth is $100Tn and Corporations are good for another $100Tn so if you print $1Tn, like the Fed did last year, and you knock 5% off the value of the Dollar – then you've lose 5% of the GDP in buying power ($850Bn, but only the half that is our imports) while decreasing wealth by $10Tn – it's a no-win game.  

    You can get away with it once in a while but when you relentlessly devalue people's life savings – they do begin to notice!  That's how Japan ended up with deflation – their people are, by nature, savers and their reaction to their wealth declining was to spend less (as everything you buy loses value) and save more and that created a savings glut that kept rates low – no matter how much money the BOJ printed.  

    We're different, if you print money, our people will take it and spend it – even if they can't pay it back!   Our Corporations are happy to spend it to because, if they buy their own stock or another company, their earnings go up and the CEOs personally get huge bonuses and they, for the most part, really don't give a crap about the company they run – it's just a paycheck and the way boards fire CEOs – they may as well grab what they can, when they can.  

    And, of course our Banksters love it because it generates fees so our lend and spend economy generally responds better to stimulus than Asia or Europe.  It's also because our people are simply worse at math and less economically educated than people in Europe and Asia and they don't understand what's happening to them!  

    Buy nothing day is a thing in Europe – can you imagine that happening here?  That's another problem with these attempts to find International solutions to economic crisis – we're not homogeneous enough to pull that off!  

    Anyway, today the Nikkei plunged 2.6% to 15,600 – very good for those EWJ puts!  China is still closed for their holiday (and Hong Kong is still a mess with the protests).

    Europe is mixed with FTSE, CAC and DAX down slightly, Italy down 1% and Spain down 0.6% – not too bad considering the horrible lead-in they got from us but that's all about Draghi as they are SURE he will save them in half an hour.

    Oil just tapped $89 so there's our $500 for the morning – DON'T BE GREEDY.  If it goes over $89, you can play that bullish with tight stops but I think $89 may be a line of contention and we'll go above and below it a lot, and I don't have the conviction to play either side of it so I'd rather not risk it. 





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Phil's Favorites

Opposite of Conventional Wisdom

 

Opposite of Conventional Wisdom

Courtesy of 

There was an article in the New York Times that highlighted the reversal of previous findings in medicine.

Of more than 3,000 studies published from 2003 through 2017 in JAMA and the Lancet…more than one of 10 amounted to a “medical reversal”: ...



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Zero Hedge

WTI Extends Losses After Smaller Than Expected Crude Draw

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Oil prices plunged today as Trump and Pompeo defused some tensions with Iran and geopolitical risk premiums were squeezed out suddenly.

“Bullish catalysts are in short supply,” analysts at London-based broker PVM Oil Associates Ltd. said in a note to clients.

“The Gulf Coast of Mexico hurricane premium is fading as offshore operations in the region resume. At the same time, the U.S. shale engine continues to give oil bulls a sleepless night.”

API

  • Crude -1.401mm...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

U.S. & Euro Financials Lagging Big Time! Should Stock Bulls Be Concerned?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Historically its been positive to see Financials doing well at the same time the broad market is pushing higher! If financial stocks are lagging bit time, should stock bulls be concerned?

This chart compares banks and in the U.S. (XLF) & Europe (EUFN) to the S&P 500 over the past 18-months.

Currently, XLF is lagging the S&P by more than 11...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For July 16, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $5.00 per share on revenue of $9.13 billion.
  • Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $2.02 per share on revenue of $836.92 million.
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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Breaks Back Below $10k, Crypto-Crash Accelerates As Asia Opens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update 2010ET: Having briefly stabilized after this morning's weakness, cryptos are tumbling once again as Asian markets open.

Bitcoin has broken below $10,000 again...

*  *  *

While all eyes are on Bitcoin as it slides back towards $10,000, the real mover in the last 12 hours has been Ethereum after...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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