Archive for April, 2015

Well That Hasn’t Happened Before – Exhibit 5

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

We have never, ever, seen more trades per second in stocks than at the peak of yesterday’s post-FOMC reaction…

One glance at this chart shows the ‘arms war’ under way in the so-called markets – this frequency of trading is 10 times higher than 2010 averages… and just keeps getting higher.

This burst of high-frequency-trading – 864,000 trades per second – coincided with the short-term top post-FOMC as the machines “gave it all they could, Cap’n” to prove The Fed has a bloody clue what it is doing now…

It appears the ‘oomph;’ of HFT is running out of gas.

Chart: Bloomberg and Nanex

*  *  *

See Exhibit 1 here

See Exhibit 2 here

See Exhibit 3 here

See Exhibit 4 here





STTG Market Recap Apr 30, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

Quick Note from Blain: Made some short and “to the point” market analysis videos over at Ticker.tv. These are 100% mobile friendly, please check them out and let me know what you think. If you like them I will try and make some every couple days. Thanks!

Indexes continue to show weakness as the S&P 500 fell 1.01% and the NASDAQ 1.64%.  Data today showed that consumer spending in March posted the the biggest increase since November, while February’s gain was larger than previously estimated. Incomes were little changed reflecting a drop in dividend payments.

At this point that bearish outside reversal day we mentioned Monday as a potential short term top in the NASDAQ has actually led to follow through.  Sometimes you get surprised when old fashioned bearish indicators still work in these markets.   That index has now quickly fallen below its 50 day moving average after being in a parabolic state early Monday nowhere near even the 20 day moving average – things can change fast.  The S&P 500 never closed over our upper trend line which has not been the case during the past 9 months during rallies.  So it was a notable underachiever and is now well below that level.

spx

nasdaq

The Russell 2000 – which had been an outperformer this year – really took it on the chin today. It sliced through the 50 day moving average and now is approaching the 100 day – what a quick move.  It is now near an old support level.  Remember the Russell 2000 companies were benefiting from the strong dollar as investors rotated into these names which don’t have much dollar exposure (i.e. exports).  But as we showed yesterday the dollar rally has ended and now we are seeing an almost perfect correlation out of the Russell 2000 – interesting.

rut

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator is already fast approaching the initial stage of oversold – it has been a while since we saw these type of readings.

NYMO

Apple (AAPL) was a big drag as the Wall Street Journal reported that supplies of the company’s Apple Watch were limited at the…
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Cost Obsessions Around the World

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored Raul via Fixr.com,

Google’s autocomplete function provides suggestions derived from common Google searches by other users. Comparing autocomplete results for searches on different countries reveals how certain places are perceived by people around the World.

It turns out that Google searches for the cost of something vary widely depending on the country of interest. For example, people are most interested in the cost of a passport or a patent in North America. As for Europe, many are concerned about practical things like the cost of living, studying, or buying a beer. Google users are interested in basic necessities such as food, livestock, and fuel in Africa. But if you look closely, you will find some more controversial search results, such as prostitution in Brazil, Ukraine, Hong Kong, and Latvia; slaves in Mauritania; a kidney in Iran; in vitro fertilization in Australia; and rhinoplasty in Korea.

Intrigued by the results of our U.S. state-by-state analysis of Google autocomplete results, we decided to see what the worldwide results look like. We began by googling a simple question for each country:

 

The results were then recorded and put into an infographic to see how countries and continents compare. Here are the results by continent:

Life in North America appears relatively boring. So boring that Canadians are chiefly interested in the cost of a passport for leaving the country. Better to go to Mexico where everyone has great abs.

 

Panama hats are popular in Ecuador. Prostitution is of interest in Brazil and Uruguay. And in Chile, the price of coke is of prime importance … we’re not sure which kind.

Some quirky search results for Europe include Rolexes in Switzerland, mooring a yacht in Monaco, nose jobs in Albania, and flying a MiG (a Russian fighter aircraft) in Russia.

 

For Asia there is a wide range of results, reflecting the diversity of cultures within the continent. The biggest financial concern for people searching about Lebanon appears to be the cost of a PS3; for Kuwait it is Lamborghinis, carpets for Armenia, and watermelons for Japan.

 

Google users are mostly concerned about the necessities of life in Africa. But apparently in the case of Sierra Leone people are more concerned about buying diamonds, and…
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No More Greater Fools: Retail Traders Are “Pretty Fully Invested” In Stocks, TD CEO Says

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

“Margin loans at high levels, client cash at low levels and account holders at the firm logging in frequently.”

If you didn’t know any better, you might think the above is yet another example of someone describing one of the dynamics driving China’s self-feeding equity mania. After all, the country’s “world-beating” rally has everyone from housewives to banana vendors opening stock trading accounts by the millions while piling on margin debt and trading so often that the computers tracking volume literally give up and shut themselves down.

Alas, the quote featured above is actually from TD Ameritrade CEO Fred Tomczyk and he’s describing America’s own legion of day-trading BTFDers who are apparently all-in at just the wrong time:

A broad look at the 6.5 million customer accounts at TD Ameritrade indicates that retail investors are “pretty fully invested” in stocks, the online brokerage’s CEO said Thursday.

Fred Tomczyk cited several signs of this: margin loans at high levels, client cash at low levels and account holders at the firm logging in frequently. “It’s usually a good indication that people are very engaged in the markets and watching their investments closely,” he said on CNBC’s ” Squawk Box .”

But Tomczyk acknowledged the potential pitfalls of these trends and what they may portend for stocks. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a correction here. We’ve had six [or] 6½ years of up markets here.”


Ultimately then, the greater fool theory of investing whereby it doesn’t matter how much you pay as long as the next guy is willing to pay more — the same greater fool theory of investing that China’s regulators have warned has taken hold in Chinese stocks — may have just run out of fools, but we suspect that’s fine as long as price-insensitive corporate management teams can issue new debt and plow the proceeds back into their own stock.





Do You Want to Know a Secret?

Courtesy of Tim Knight from Slope of Hope

I hate tech bubbles.

No, that's not the secret. Everyone knows that. The secret I am referring to is a company named, literally, Secret. And the existence of this company, as well as the easy $6 million its co-founders pocketed when they shuttered the place, is absolutely symptomatic of this bubble-of-bubbles we are living in (the third one of the past fifteen years, incredibly).

I didn't even know Secret existed, because I'm too old to spend my time worrying about every new little app that comes along that lets teenagers engage in cyber-bullying and exchange  dick pics. It's just not my cup of tea. But I happened to stumble across this article yesterday, which was headlined:

0430-secret1

Now a startup shutting down isn't any bigger news than someone finishing a satisfying lunch somewhere, but the "Ferrari" mention intrigued me, so I read further.

Turns out a chap named David Byttow (whose profile picture looks exactly like the sort of person who would do such a thing) started the company way, way, way back in October 2013. He was able to get $35 million – - that's $35,000,000 - – in funding for his app. The elevator pitch for this thing was: "Share anonymously with friends, co-workers and people nearby. Find out what your friends are really thinking and feeling."

 

I dunno, but when I want to know what my friends are thinking and feeling………I ask them. But, then again, I didn't raise $35 million, so who am I to judge?

The media had some pretty ugly things to say about Secret, but in the Silicon Valley, which is where I live, stupid apps getting tens of millions in funding with no prospect of profits is commonplace. What got my attention was that, as the app's popularity was cratering, the co-founders managed to raise more cash and – – astonishly – - pocket $6 million from selling a portion of their own holdings to these new investors.

During this time (when, in retrospect, it is obvious that the app was a flash in the pan, and users had lost interest), the message from the company was that it might "pivot", which is Silicon-Valley-speak for a product that has…
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25 Years Of US Monetary Policy Explained (In 1 Cartoon)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Bernanke claims that “Fed actions didn’t favor Wall Street over Main Street,” we suspect the following chart clarifies the effect of his and his predecessors actions on the average American…

h/t @FedPorn





LInkedIn Crashes 25% After Missing Revenues, Cutting Outlook

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

LNKD has collapsed 27% on the back of missed revenues and lowered outlooks for Q2 and 2015 drastically. What is most dramatic – just as was seen with YELP and TWTR is the velocity of repricing which indicates just how far expectations for growth in the tech sector are from reality… and strongly suggests all is not well as El-Erian’s “wedge” between markets and fundamentals snaps shut…

Just totally ugly:

  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2Q REV. $670M-$675M, EST. $718.3M
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2Q ADJ. EBITDA ABOUT $120M, EST. $197.1M
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2Q ADJ. EPS ABOUT 28C, EST. 74C
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2015 ADJ. EBITDA ABOUT $630M, EST. $815.9M REV.
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2015 ADJ. EPS ABOUT $1.90, EST. $3.03

The result…

Which means LNKD has done nothing for over 2 years…

and th elatest exuberance is all as margin debt soars.

Charts: Bloomberg





16 Signs That The Economy Has Stalled Out And The Next Economic Downturn Is Here

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

If U.S. economic growth falls any lower, we are officially going to be in recession territory.  On Wednesday, we learned that U.S. GDP grew at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2015.  That was much lower than all of the “experts” were projecting.  And of course there are all sorts of questions whether the GDP numbers the government feeds us are legitimate anyway.  According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if honest numbers were used they would show that U.S. GDP growth has been continuously negative since 2005.  But even if we consider the number that the government has given us to be the “real” number, it still shows that the U.S. economy has stalled out.  It is almost as if we have hit a “turning point”, and there are many out there (including myself) that believe that the next major economic downturn is dead ahead.  As you will see in this article, a whole bunch of things are happening right now that we would expect to see if a recession was beginning.  The following are 16 signs that the economy has stalled out and the next economic downturn is here…

#1 We just learned that U.S. GDP grew at an anemic 0.2 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2015…

The gross domestic product grew between January and March at an annualized rate of 0.2 percent, the U.S. Commerce Department said, adding to the picture of an economy braking sharply after accelerating for much of last year. The pace fell well shy of the 1 percent mark anticipated by analysts and marked the weakest quarter in a year.

#2 If you strip a very unusual inventory buildup out of the GDP number, U.S. GDP would have actually fallen at a -2.5 percent annual rate during the first quarter…

The only good news: the massive inventory build, the largest since 2010, boosted GDP by nearly 3.0%. Without this epic stockpiling of non-farm inventory which will have to be liquidated at some point (and at a very low price) Q1 GDP would have been -2.5%.

#3 Our trade…
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Dollar-nado Sparks Market Turmoil In April

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If you were long AAPL, Bonds, Small Caps, Trannies, or Silver in April (or The Dow since 2014)…. this is for you…

Great news today on wage costs sparked the initial wave of liquidity-addicted selling which then accelerated this afternoon as headlines from Iran hit…

By the close, Small Caps were worst on the day from The FOMC statement…

And on the week… Small Caps are ugly, Dow and S&P down but holding on for now…

And for April…

Biotechs buggered… (closed below its 100DMA to Feb lows) – down 14.3% from highs 5 daya ago!

Apple anxiety… (closed below its 50DMA) dow over 8% from highs..

Twitter Twatted… -24% from pre-earnings early release…

The dollar dropped, led by more EUR strength (back over 1.1250 today!)…

Treasuries blew higher in yield early on as it seemed the “rate hike meme” trade was back and everything was sold. But once stock selling accelerated, bonds rallied and ended close to unchanged…

All commodities are up on the week still but gold and silver were clubbed like baby seals around the data release this morning…

*  *  *

For the month of April:

  • The dollar ended a 9 month streak with a 3.5% drop in April (most since April 2011)
  • The Euro is up 4.3% in April (most sicne April 2011) ending that 9-month streak
  • Biotechs ended a 6 month streak with a 7.3% plunge in April (most since April 2014 – Yellen warning)
  • WTI Crude rose 24.8% in April (the most since May 2009)

Notable selling in Treasuries and curve steepening with the long-end around 23bps higher in April…

The dollar had its worst month in 4 years – led by EUR strength following Draghi’s dare…

And despite the dollar weakness, gold ended flat, silver down but copper jumped on China QE and oil just went up because everything’s normal again…

Finally for 2015, The Dow dropped back into the red and Trannies hit new lows for the year…

Everything has recoupled as Oil soars…

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Yellen is Stallone; Obama is the guy in the chopper; Everyone on CNBC is the lady hanging from the rope…





The New New New Normal – US wages rising

The New New New Normal – US wages rising

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, the Reformed Broker

This morning the markets are shocked thanks to a year-over-year gain in US salaries and wages of 2.6%. The ten-year Treasury yield is now up almost 10% over the last four days.

I was at a BlackRock iShares conference last week where Morgan Stanley’s economist Ellen Zentner predicted almost this exact number and reaction:

Bonds are selling off hard on the news and stocks don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

Here’s the chart via Quartz:

us_wage_and_salaries_year-on-year_change_us_wage_and_salaries_year-on-year_change_chartbuilder

Josh here – obviously this stands in sharp contrast to the malaise depicted in Q1’s abysmal GDP release. Now of course, there’s no reason to believe that this is the start of a more meaningful trend. Every economist will tell you that the hallmark of the post-crisis period is the “growth scare” where it looks momentarily like we’re breaking into escape velocity. All big bets on this sort of thing have ended in tears so far.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Treasury Yields Are Tumbling Back To Record Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Yesterday's brief interruption in the demise of yield (driven by rate-locks due to the massive Alphabet issuance), has ended with Treasury yields erasing the entire move and then some.

Source: Bloomberg

Aside from the flash-crash spike lows on March 9th, this is the lowest 10Y yields have been ever...

Source: Bloomberg

And st...



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Watch Chris Talk Corporate Earnings on Yahoo! Finance

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Out of the 312 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far for the second quarter, 82.1% reported above analyst expectations, according to data from Refinitiv. Founder and Chief Market Strategist of “The Technical Traders.com” Chris Vermeulen joins Yahoo Finance’s Akiko Fujita to discuss.

Learn more about our latest research and alerts on Gold, Silver, Oil, and Equities at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

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Momentum Monday - Digital Dominance...This Week Semiconductors and 5G

 

Momentum Monday – Digital Dominance…This Week Semiconductors and 5G

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Good Monday morning everyone.

As always here is this weeks Momentum Monday from Ivanhoff and I.

I walk through the Apple explosion to new highs and what that means for my stops and area where I would get defensive.

Google is the weakest of the FAANG stocks.

I shared some fresh ideas with Ivanhoff in the software and 5G sector which include $ESTC $SWKS $QRVO and $QCOM.

I hope you enjoy it.

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There aren't enough batteries to electrify all cars - focus on trucks and buses instead

 

There aren't enough batteries to electrify all cars — focus on trucks and buses instead

Garbage trucks, buses and the van that delivers your Amazon purchases are all prime candidates for electrification. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Cameron Roberts, Carleton University

We need to change our transportation system, and we need to do it quickly.

Road transportation is a major consumer of fossil fuels, contributing 16 per cent of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, which warm up the Earth’s atmosphere and cause changes to the climate. It also ...



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SEC's Pathetic Agreement With Bausch Health Companies

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing SEC’s pathetic agreement with Bausch Health Companies Inc (NYSE:BHC) (formerly Valeant); Insys documentary; Opioids, Bribery, and Wall Street; Novartis bribery settlement; Kodak.

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SEC's Pathetic Agreement With Bausch Health Companies

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Here's How To Buy The Top Stocks In The Hottest Sectors During The Covid Crisis

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech has been the place to be during the Covid-19 crisis. Investors Business Daily recently highlighted how one can own the strongest of the strong by just owning one ETF (See article here).

This chart looks at the Dorsey Wright Focus Five index ETF (FV), which reflects that it is attempting a bullish breakout while creating higher lows over the past 6-years.

The $2.1 billion fund tracks the Dorsey Wright Focus Five Index, which provides access to five First Trust sector and industry ETFs. Dorsey Wright & Associates selects the funds based on relative price momentum, then weights the compone...



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Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



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Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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US Dollar Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

If investors can correctly forecast the US Dollar then their portfolio will be standing on better ground.

Jesse Livermore said investors must familiarise themselves with all matters of the market. The sine wave cycle below shows regular tops and bottoms and if the investor ignores this repeating phenomena it could be at their peril. If you decide to do so, you best have a good technical or fundamental reason.

The sine wave cycle below was found with readtheticker.com 'Cycle Finder Spectrum' use of 'Bartels' logic. Yes it is mathematics, but within the site RTT Plus service we also examine the dollar fundamentals  (like: inflation, money s...

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Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

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Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

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  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

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Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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