Archive for April, 2015

Well That Hasn’t Happened Before – Exhibit 5

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

We have never, ever, seen more trades per second in stocks than at the peak of yesterday’s post-FOMC reaction…

One glance at this chart shows the ‘arms war’ under way in the so-called markets – this frequency of trading is 10 times higher than 2010 averages… and just keeps getting higher.

This burst of high-frequency-trading – 864,000 trades per second – coincided with the short-term top post-FOMC as the machines “gave it all they could, Cap’n” to prove The Fed has a bloody clue what it is doing now…

It appears the ‘oomph;’ of HFT is running out of gas.

Chart: Bloomberg and Nanex

*  *  *

See Exhibit 1 here

See Exhibit 2 here

See Exhibit 3 here

See Exhibit 4 here





STTG Market Recap Apr 30, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

Quick Note from Blain: Made some short and “to the point” market analysis videos over at Ticker.tv. These are 100% mobile friendly, please check them out and let me know what you think. If you like them I will try and make some every couple days. Thanks!

Indexes continue to show weakness as the S&P 500 fell 1.01% and the NASDAQ 1.64%.  Data today showed that consumer spending in March posted the the biggest increase since November, while February’s gain was larger than previously estimated. Incomes were little changed reflecting a drop in dividend payments.

At this point that bearish outside reversal day we mentioned Monday as a potential short term top in the NASDAQ has actually led to follow through.  Sometimes you get surprised when old fashioned bearish indicators still work in these markets.   That index has now quickly fallen below its 50 day moving average after being in a parabolic state early Monday nowhere near even the 20 day moving average – things can change fast.  The S&P 500 never closed over our upper trend line which has not been the case during the past 9 months during rallies.  So it was a notable underachiever and is now well below that level.

spx

nasdaq

The Russell 2000 – which had been an outperformer this year – really took it on the chin today. It sliced through the 50 day moving average and now is approaching the 100 day – what a quick move.  It is now near an old support level.  Remember the Russell 2000 companies were benefiting from the strong dollar as investors rotated into these names which don’t have much dollar exposure (i.e. exports).  But as we showed yesterday the dollar rally has ended and now we are seeing an almost perfect correlation out of the Russell 2000 – interesting.

rut

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator is already fast approaching the initial stage of oversold – it has been a while since we saw these type of readings.

NYMO

Apple (AAPL) was a big drag as the Wall Street Journal reported that supplies of the company’s Apple Watch were limited at the…
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Cost Obsessions Around the World

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored Raul via Fixr.com,

Google’s autocomplete function provides suggestions derived from common Google searches by other users. Comparing autocomplete results for searches on different countries reveals how certain places are perceived by people around the World.

It turns out that Google searches for the cost of something vary widely depending on the country of interest. For example, people are most interested in the cost of a passport or a patent in North America. As for Europe, many are concerned about practical things like the cost of living, studying, or buying a beer. Google users are interested in basic necessities such as food, livestock, and fuel in Africa. But if you look closely, you will find some more controversial search results, such as prostitution in Brazil, Ukraine, Hong Kong, and Latvia; slaves in Mauritania; a kidney in Iran; in vitro fertilization in Australia; and rhinoplasty in Korea.

Intrigued by the results of our U.S. state-by-state analysis of Google autocomplete results, we decided to see what the worldwide results look like. We began by googling a simple question for each country:
full-map

 

The results were then recorded and put into an infographic to see how countries and continents compare. Here are the results by continent:

full-map

Life in North America appears relatively boring. So boring that Canadians are chiefly interested in the cost of a passport for leaving the country. Better to go to Mexico where everyone has great abs.

full-map

 

Panama hats are popular in Ecuador. Prostitution is of interest in Brazil and Uruguay. And in Chile, the price of coke is of prime importance … we’re not sure which kind.

full-map

Some quirky search results for Europe include Rolexes in Switzerland, mooring a yacht in Monaco, nose jobs in Albania, and flying a MiG (a Russian fighter aircraft) in Russia.

 

full-map

For Asia there is a wide range of results, reflecting the diversity of cultures within the continent. The biggest financial concern for people searching about Lebanon appears to be the cost of a PS3; for Kuwait it is Lamborghinis, carpets for Armenia, and watermelons for Japan.

full-map

 

Google users are mostly concerned about the necessities of life in Africa. But apparently in the case of Sierra Leone people are more…
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No More Greater Fools: Retail Traders Are “Pretty Fully Invested” In Stocks, TD CEO Says

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

“Margin loans at high levels, client cash at low levels and account holders at the firm logging in frequently.”

If you didn’t know any better, you might think the above is yet another example of someone describing one of the dynamics driving China’s self-feeding equity mania. After all, the country’s “world-beating” rally has everyone from housewives to banana vendors opening stock trading accounts by the millions while piling on margin debt and trading so often that the computers tracking volume literally give up and shut themselves down.

Alas, the quote featured above is actually from TD Ameritrade CEO Fred Tomczyk and he’s describing America’s own legion of day-trading BTFDers who are apparently all-in at just the wrong time:

A broad look at the 6.5 million customer accounts at TD Ameritrade indicates that retail investors are “pretty fully invested” in stocks, the online brokerage’s CEO said Thursday.

Fred Tomczyk cited several signs of this: margin loans at high levels, client cash at low levels and account holders at the firm logging in frequently. “It’s usually a good indication that people are very engaged in the markets and watching their investments closely,” he said on CNBC’s ” Squawk Box .”

But Tomczyk acknowledged the potential pitfalls of these trends and what they may portend for stocks. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a correction here. We’ve had six [or] 6½ years of up markets here.”


Ultimately then, the greater fool theory of investing whereby it doesn’t matter how much you pay as long as the next guy is willing to pay more — the same greater fool theory of investing that China’s regulators have warned has taken hold in Chinese stocks — may have just run out of fools, but we suspect that’s fine as long as price-insensitive corporate management teams can issue new debt and plow the proceeds back into their own stock.





Do You Want to Know a Secret?

Courtesy of Tim Knight from Slope of Hope

I hate tech bubbles.

No, that's not the secret. Everyone knows that. The secret I am referring to is a company named, literally, Secret. And the existence of this company, as well as the easy $6 million its co-founders pocketed when they shuttered the place, is absolutely symptomatic of this bubble-of-bubbles we are living in (the third one of the past fifteen years, incredibly).

I didn't even know Secret existed, because I'm too old to spend my time worrying about every new little app that comes along that lets teenagers engage in cyber-bullying and exchange  dick pics. It's just not my cup of tea. But I happened to stumble across this article yesterday, which was headlined:

0430-secret1

Now a startup shutting down isn't any bigger news than someone finishing a satisfying lunch somewhere, but the "Ferrari" mention intrigued me, so I read further.

Turns out a chap named David Byttow (whose profile picture looks exactly like the sort of person who would do such a thing) started the company way, way, way back in October 2013. He was able to get $35 million – - that's $35,000,000 - – in funding for his app. The elevator pitch for this thing was: "Share anonymously with friends, co-workers and people nearby. Find out what your friends are really thinking and feeling."

 

I dunno, but when I want to know what my friends are thinking and feeling………I ask them. But, then again, I didn't raise $35 million, so who am I to judge?

The media had some pretty ugly things to say about Secret, but in the Silicon Valley, which is where I live, stupid apps getting tens of millions in funding with no prospect of profits is commonplace. What got my attention was that, as the app's popularity was cratering, the co-founders managed to raise more cash and – – astonishly – - pocket $6 million from selling a portion of their own holdings to these new investors.

During this time (when, in retrospect, it is obvious that the app was a flash in the pan, and users had lost interest), the message from the company was that it might "pivot", which is Silicon-Valley-speak for a product that has…
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25 Years Of US Monetary Policy Explained (In 1 Cartoon)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Bernanke claims that “Fed actions didn’t favor Wall Street over Main Street,” we suspect the following chart clarifies the effect of his and his predecessors actions on the average American…

h/t @FedPorn





LInkedIn Crashes 25% After Missing Revenues, Cutting Outlook

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

LNKD has collapsed 27% on the back of missed revenues and lowered outlooks for Q2 and 2015 drastically. What is most dramatic – just as was seen with YELP and TWTR is the velocity of repricing which indicates just how far expectations for growth in the tech sector are from reality… and strongly suggests all is not well as El-Erian’s “wedge” between markets and fundamentals snaps shut…

Just totally ugly:

  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2Q REV. $670M-$675M, EST. $718.3M
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2Q ADJ. EBITDA ABOUT $120M, EST. $197.1M
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2Q ADJ. EPS ABOUT 28C, EST. 74C
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2015 ADJ. EBITDA ABOUT $630M, EST. $815.9M REV.
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2015 ADJ. EPS ABOUT $1.90, EST. $3.03

The result…

Which means LNKD has done nothing for over 2 years…

and th elatest exuberance is all as margin debt soars.

Charts: Bloomberg





16 Signs That The Economy Has Stalled Out And The Next Economic Downturn Is Here

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

If U.S. economic growth falls any lower, we are officially going to be in recession territory.  On Wednesday, we learned that U.S. GDP grew at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2015.  That was much lower than all of the “experts” were projecting.  And of course there are all sorts of questions whether the GDP numbers the government feeds us are legitimate anyway.  According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if honest numbers were used they would show that U.S. GDP growth has been continuously negative since 2005.  But even if we consider the number that the government has given us to be the “real” number, it still shows that the U.S. economy has stalled out.  It is almost as if we have hit a “turning point”, and there are many out there (including myself) that believe that the next major economic downturn is dead ahead.  As you will see in this article, a whole bunch of things are happening right now that we would expect to see if a recession was beginning.  The following are 16 signs that the economy has stalled out and the next economic downturn is here…

#1 We just learned that U.S. GDP grew at an anemic 0.2 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2015…

The gross domestic product grew between January and March at an annualized rate of 0.2 percent, the U.S. Commerce Department said, adding to the picture of an economy braking sharply after accelerating for much of last year. The pace fell well shy of the 1 percent mark anticipated by analysts and marked the weakest quarter in a year.

#2 If you strip a very unusual inventory buildup out of the GDP number, U.S. GDP would have actually fallen at a -2.5 percent annual rate during the first quarter…

The only good news: the massive inventory build, the largest since 2010, boosted GDP by nearly 3.0%. Without this epic stockpiling of non-farm inventory which will have to be liquidated at some point (and at a very low price) Q1 GDP would have been -2.5%.

#3 Our trade…
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Dollar-nado Sparks Market Turmoil In April

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If you were long AAPL, Bonds, Small Caps, Trannies, or Silver in April (or The Dow since 2014)…. this is for you…

Great news today on wage costs sparked the initial wave of liquidity-addicted selling which then accelerated this afternoon as headlines from Iran hit…

By the close, Small Caps were worst on the day from The FOMC statement…

And on the week… Small Caps are ugly, Dow and S&P down but holding on for now…

And for April…

Biotechs buggered… (closed below its 100DMA to Feb lows) – down 14.3% from highs 5 daya ago!

Apple anxiety… (closed below its 50DMA) dow over 8% from highs..

Twitter Twatted… -24% from pre-earnings early release…

The dollar dropped, led by more EUR strength (back over 1.1250 today!)…

Treasuries blew higher in yield early on as it seemed the "rate hike meme" trade was back and everything was sold. But once stock selling accelerated, bonds rallied and ended close to unchanged…

All commodities are up on the week still but gold and silver were clubbed like baby seals around the data release this morning…

*  *  *

For the month of April:

  • The dollar ended a 9 month streak with a 3.5% drop in April (most since April 2011)
  • The Euro is up 4.3% in April (most sicne April 2011) ending that 9-month streak
  • Biotechs ended a 6 month streak with a 7.3% plunge in April (most since April 2014 – Yellen warning)
  • WTI Crude rose 24.8% in April (the most since May 2009)

Notable selling in Treasuries and curve steepening with the long-end around 23bps higher in April…

The dollar had its worst month in 4 years – led by EUR strength following Draghi's dare…

And despite the dollar weakness, gold ended flat, silver down but copper jumped on China QE and oil just went up because everything's normal again…

Finally for 2015, The Dow dropped back into the red and Trannies hit new lows for the year…

Everything has recoupled as Oil soars…

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Yellen is Stallone; Obama is the guy in the chopper; Everyone on CNBC is the lady hanging from the rope…





The New New New Normal – US wages rising

The New New New Normal – US wages rising

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, the Reformed Broker

This morning the markets are shocked thanks to a year-over-year gain in US salaries and wages of 2.6%. The ten-year Treasury yield is now up almost 10% over the last four days.

I was at a BlackRock iShares conference last week where Morgan Stanley’s economist Ellen Zentner predicted almost this exact number and reaction:

Bonds are selling off hard on the news and stocks don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

Here’s the chart via Quartz:

us_wage_and_salaries_year-on-year_change_us_wage_and_salaries_year-on-year_change_chartbuilder

Josh here – obviously this stands in sharp contrast to the malaise depicted in Q1’s abysmal GDP release. Now of course, there’s no reason to believe that this is the start of a more meaningful trend. Every economist will tell you that the hallmark of the post-crisis period is the “growth scare” where it looks momentarily like we’re breaking into escape velocity. All big bets on this sort of thing have ended in tears so far.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Stocks Slump After Quad-Witch; Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Jump

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Without the quad-witch magic, stocks unable to hold gains as bonds, bullion, and bitcoin all see safe-haven bids...

Chinese stocks trod water largely overnight after a big week, with tech and small caps leading the drop...

European stocks drifted lower for the 3rd day in a row, despite an excited open...

Ugly day for Trannies ...



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Phil's Favorites

Corporate boards are supposed to oversee companies but often turn a blind eye

 

Corporate boards are supposed to oversee companies but often turn a blind eye

Courtesy of Siri Terjesen, American University Kogod School of Business

A lot of giant companies are getting into big trouble these days.

When Boeing 737 Max aircraft crashed in Indonesia and Ethiopia, killing a total of 346 people in October 2018 and March 2019, the disasters raised serious questions about the safety of the aviation leader’s anti-stall system.

When some 5,000 Wells Fargo employees fra...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Wilshire 5000 Creating A Triple Top? An Important Breakout Test Is In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The stock market has been on fire of late, rallying up to the edge of price resistance on several indexes. Today, we look at one of those stock market indexes: the Wilshire 5000.

The Wilshire 5000 tracks all of the stocks in the US market, so it is a broad-based index that carries significant importance when gauging the health of the overall US stock market.

Looking at the long-term “weekly” chart above, it is pretty clear that the index is at an important price juncture.

The Wilshire 5000 spent the last 25 years trading within a rising price channel (1)...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Upgrades Deere, Cites 'Significantly Improved Farmer Income Outlook'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Farmer buying power will remain pressured for 2019, but this will change for the better next year and will help support Deere & Company (NYSE: DE), according to Jefferies.

The Analyst

Jefferies' Stephen Volkmann upgraded Deere from Hold to Buy with a price target lifted from $150 to $190....



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Chart School

Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.

This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.

Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT). 

To see when water company's (and such like) are nearing the crazy FANG like valuations a review of the Dow Jones Utility Index channel shows us how history can repeat. The c...

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ValueWalk

The "Tesla Killer" Car Is Nowhere In Sight

 

The “Tesla Killer” Car Is Nowhere In Sight

By Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

Here’s some catnip for the Tesla bulls on this email list: my analyst, Kevin DeCamp, a longtime TSLA shareholder and car owner, took a test drive of the Jaguar I-PACE and, while it “looks great and is fun to drive… it is lacking in a few areas where Tesla really shines.” He concludes that “Tesla may end up killing itself, but the “Tesla killer” car is nowhere in sight.”

The Tesla Killer Hasn’t Arrived Yet: My Test Drive of the Jaguar I-PACE

By Kevin DeCamp

As a long-time, devoted Tesla...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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