Courtesy of Read the Ticker.
Nothing goes is a straight line for ever! After a long period of time you know something scary is coming!
Stats from the 100 years trend of Dow Jones Industrials Index
10 year cycle of years starting with a 7 on the end (1987, 1997, 2007) and years ending with a 8 on the end (1988, 1988, 2008).
During the 2years of 2017 and 2018 the odds are:
1) 20% chance the up trend will continue at the same pace with no correction greater than 12%.
2) If (1) occurs and a major correction is delayed the odds increase a 20% plus correct is very likely.
3) 80% chance the trend does not continue at same pace and will either fall or trend flat.
4) 40% chance price will trend higher or go flat, with no major corrections.
5) 60% chance some sort of correction greater than 12.5%.
6) 40% chance some sort of correction greater than 20%.
7) 40% chance some sort of correction greater than 30%.
8) 30% chance some sort of correction greater than 50%.
9) Two major bearish corrections in a row is unlikely [subject to (2) above].
Corrections come in many forms, fast or slow, no one knows what is in store this time. From above you can bet on (1) and (3).
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Investing Quote…
..”I believe that uncontrolled basic emotions are the true and deadly enemy of the speculator. That hope, fear, and greed is always present, these emotions sit on the edge of the psyche, waiting on the sidelines, waiting to jump into the action.”..
Jesse Livermore
..”Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven”..
Arthur Miller, “The Crucible”
[Contrarian Investing]
..”it is better to have few stocks and to watch them carefully”…
Bernard Burach
..”If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks”..
John (Jack) Bogle
..”Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets”…
Stan Druckenmiller
