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  1. phil

    Good morning!

    Waiting on the BOE rate decision, any minute.  Would be a surprise if they tighten.   Draghi already had his say:

    Mario Draghi called for continued euro-area stimulus even as the economy enters a new phase in its upturn, saying support is still needed to entrench the trend.

    “All the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the euro area — deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones,” the European Central Bank president said on Tuesday in Sintra, Portugal. “However, a considerable degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for inflation dynamics to become durable and self-sustaining. So for us to be assured about the return of inflation to our objective, we need persistence in our monetary policy.”

    The euro jumped as Draghi said that most factors damping inflation are temporary, and was up 0.6 percent at $1.1250 at 9:50 a.m. in Lisbon.

    Europe is flat, Asia was flat and we're flat – very exciting stuff!  Oil $43.84, might be finally going for $44, /RB $1.45 but Dollar back down at 96.61 so not at all impressive.  Silver was the right horse to back, just hit $1,000 per contract at $16.65 so done there and we'll look for fresh horses.  Nas was certainly the right short, still down at 5,760 and that was good for over $2,000/contract – it doesn't always have to be oil, you know!

    /TF short below 1,415 is the percentage play to make ahead of the BOE, assuming the Dollar bounces- tight stops above, I have to keep saying.

    Oh, I guess /DX long at 96.70 is good too!

    EU just fined GOOGL $2.7Bn for anti-trust violations.  It's not because they monopolize search but because they use that monopoly to send people to their own services over others (ie, they cheat/lie to you).  This will be interesting.  

    And here's a great article for history buffs:  "For the love of Zeus, stop misusing Thucydides"  - Great example of how you have to be critical of information – even the citations that are used to verify the information you're verifying.  

    • The White House says it has evidence that Syria is preparing to launch another chemical attack and warned that it will "pay a heavy price" for doing so.
    • In April, U.S. forces fired 59 Tomahawk missiles (NYSE:RTN) at a Syrian air base that was linked to a chemical-weapons attack in Idlib province that killed more than 80 people.

    Crisis in Brazil deepens

    • The country's attorney general has formally accused President Michel Temer of corruption, making him the first sitting president to face criminal charges.
    • While the alleged bribery scandal at meatpacker JBS (OTCQX:JBSAY) has spurred impeachment talk, it will definitely reduce the chances Temer can push through reforms needed for Brazil to rebound from its worst recession on record.

    Big week for the IPO market

    • The IPO market is expected to see more deals price this week than at any time over the past two years, as a strong stock market and the performance of new listings boosts confidence.
    • Investors that bought U.S.-listed IPOs priced in 2017 are so far reaping an average return of 12%, according to Renaissance Capital, whose exchange-traded fund IPO has returned over 22% YTD.

    CBO evaluates Senate health bill

    • The Senate Republican healthcare bill would result in 22M more people uninsured by the end of the coming decade, while reducing federal spending by $321B during that time, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
    • The figures, which were released just hours after GOP leaders revised the bill, complicates the path forward for the already-fraught legislation.
    • Is a vote before the July 4 recess still realistic?


    • A trade complaint asking the Trump administration to impose tariffs on solar panels could devastate the U.S. solar industry, wiping out two-thirds of systems forecast to be installed over the next five years, according to a report by GTM Research.
    • The case, filed by bankrupt panel manufacturer Suniva, would cause equipment prices to spike in the U.S. and prompt installations to fall to as low as 25 GW during 2018-22, down from GTM’s current forecast of 72.5 GW, the report says.
    • The biggest impact of tariffs likely would be felt by large-scale unity solar farms, which compete as an alternative to natural gas, while residential rooftop installations would take a lesser hit, GTM says.

    Big oils can survive at $40 but need $60 to thrive, BMO says

    • Global oil majors including Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Total (NYSE:TOT) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B) can survive in a $40-$50/bbl oil price range but they really need oil above $60 to thrive, according to analysts at BMO Capital.
    • The analysts say that at $40 oil, the group's operating cash flows fail to cover current capex and dividend expectations, even with the aid of scrip, whereas at greater than $50/bbl, the majors should on aggregate be able to match full cash outflows
    • BMO sees only XOM able to cover its full cash dividend at ~$50/bbl in 2017, although the others should be able to organically cover their dividends at $50-$55 with the aid of financial levers such as scrip dividends, project deferrals (for re-engineering), further cost reductions and efficiency gains.
    • General Electric (GE +0.2%) has been a longtime underperformer vs. the S&P 500 and has taken a 13% drubbing YTD, but Barclays analyst Scott Davis makes the stock his new Top Pick, replacing Honeywell (HON +0.4%), as he sees Ge earnings forecasts as too low.
    • Barclays believes the naming of John Flannery as the new CEO, "combined with a bottom-quartile valuation, significant cost-out program, better cash generation, accretion from BHI, and a top-decile dividend yield continue to make GE one of the most compelling stories in our universe."
    • GE's detractors point to an unrealistic earnings ramp through 2018 and weak free cash flow generation, but the firm thinks GE's cash deficit is "largely explainable given structural changes in the business and cyclical headwinds from new product introductions."

    California to list Monsanto's glyphosate as causing cancer

    • California's environmental regulator says it will add glyphosate, the active ingredient in Monsanto's (NYSE:MON) popular Roundup weed killer, to the state's list of chemicals known to cause cancer, effective July 7.
    • The agency says the designation under California's Proposition 65 state law will proceed following an unsuccessful attempt by the company to block the listing in trial court.
    • MON calls the state's action "unwarranted on the basis of science and the law," and has appealed the trial court's decision as it plans to continue its legal challenge.

    Best Buy looks to ride smart home products wave

    • Piper Jaffray analyst Peter Keith thinks Best Buy (BBY +2.1%) is in a good position to benefit from the smart products home trend. Key snippets from the firm's note are posted below.
    • "While Home Depot and Lowe's will participate in Smart Home product adoption, BBY's smaller revenue base provides greater leverage to the cycle."
    • "Additionally, BBY can sell products to strengthen wifi signals throughout homes as consumers add more and more connected devices. Further, BBY recently introduced Best Buy Smart Home by Vivint to provide increased home security and monitoring capabilities. BBY is also remodeling the Smart Home area at the front of the store to expand the product assortment. Finally, the "Connected Home" category has been called out as a key comp driver for each of the last 3 quarters."
    • The suite of "smart" home products offered by the company includes locks, cameras, lights, thermostats and nursery items (BBY Q1 earnings call transcript).

    Blockchain moves into mainstream finance

    • Meet the "Digital Trade Chain Consortium."
    • IBM is building a blockchain-based platform for seven big European banks that will simplify finance transactions for small- and medium-sized businesses.
    • The project, which aims to be up-and-running by the end of the year, will mark one of the first real-world use cases of blockchain technology for financial institutions.

    'Transformers' opens softly for franchise but tops box office

    • Transformers: The Last Knight took over for Cars 3 atop the box office charts over the weekend, but with a Transformers franchise-low opening.
    • The latest Transformers picture from Paramount (VIA +2.7%VIAB +2.9%) drew $44.7M to lead comers, including Wonder Woman (TWX +0.1%), which held its No. 2 spot with $24.9M. Cars 3 (DIS +1.2%) lagged that only slightly, with $24.1M.
    • Wonder Woman is lifting the DC Comics Universe as it plugs away: Now at $318.1M in domestic grosses, it's hit $653.9M on a worldwide basis in four weeks of release.
    • Cars 3 drew just under $100M cumulative domestic in its second week, and added another $11.9M from 26 international markets to bring its global cumulative total to $141.3M.

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Phil's Favorites

Cursed By Momentum


Cursed By Momentum

Courtesy of Tim Richards

Edgy Investors

Although most investors have no edge on the market there's a proportion of them that persist in trading actively, the main effect of which is to enrich their brokers. There are various explanations of why this occurs, but it seems to come down to some combination of inherent overconfidence and a perverse refusal to take account of negative information. 

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Mapping The Countries With The Most Billionaires

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

There are roughly 36 million millionaires in the world.

That means if you meet someone from the global population at random, there’s a 1 in 200 chance that they could be a millionaire – this makes for surprisingly good odds.

However, as VisualCapitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, the billionaire on the other hand is a much rarer breed. According to Forbes, there are just over 2,000 billionaires in existence, making up just 0.00003% of the global population.

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Bitcoin: Bubble Or Hyperdeflation?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin flew too close to the sun. Now the eyes of the world are upon the crypto market, with all the consequences that follow...

“30th anniversary of Black Monday, when markets dropped 23% in a day. In crypto we just call that Monday."

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But, as Incrementum's Demelza Hays and Mark J. Valek show in their latest magnificent Crypto Research report, it all happened as it always has.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high and then predictably it fell again. All c...

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Bitcoin Update, demand is present

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When a Wyckoff trader looks at a stock chart of price and volume one looks for foot prints of material demand and supply. The current bitcoin chart shows very significant demand prints.

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By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

They are known as the FAANGs but Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google/Alphabet should also be dubbed the great disruptors. They have created new businesses and destroyed old ones, changing the way we conduct our personal and business lives in the process.

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Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


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Fatal Flaws of our Enlightenment?


David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on many topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He’s also one of the “World’s Best Futurists.” Find David’s books and latest thoughts on various matters at his website and blog. In ...

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The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

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Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

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Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

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Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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