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  1. stjeanluc

    Phil and members interested in the volatility trade – Wanted to check with you on an idea I started testing. Up to now I have been playing the VIX by selling calls against UVXY but I stopped because a) they reset too much and b) I don't like being short calls to begin with. But I am now looking at the opposite trade which is to sell puts against SVXY. First, I believe that over the next 20 years or more, it's going to infinity (or close):

    SVXY ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures monthly Stock Chart

    It's 2000% in 5 years or so and the underlying instrument is very bullish. Spikes in the VIX are damaging, but the VIX always, always reverts to the mean. A big VIX spike would be a buying opportunity and I would back up the truck then. We have not seen a prolonged bear market but even then, the VIX reverts to normal quickly. In the meantime, it might still make sense to sell some premium as income. Using the old condor book as guideline, I sold 2 months ahead with a delta of 10. In this case a couple of weeks back, I sold a Dec 70 puts for $2.50 against $1200 of margin (not a bad return for 2 months). The idea would be to roll once the delta go over 20 in order not to get overrun and maybe close after one month (it's already showing a 44% gain). First DD at a lower strike and then roll away. In this case, the Dec 70 can be DD to the Dec 55 or so and then to the Jan 18 35. Roughly of course as the other greeks mean bigger changes. Worse case, the 2020 are out and you can roll to the 2020 20 P very easily if needed. And then I would just sit and get assigned if we got there and take the shares. But chances are we will never get there. I don't see the VIX staying at 50 for 2 years. If that's the case, we'll be having other problems like buying iodine tablets. Am I missing something? This looks like a decent income trade to me if you have loads of margin and are not afraid of rolling.





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Chart School

Narrow Trading Ranges Set Up New Breakout Opportunities

Courtesy of Declan.

The past few days have seen markets shape narrow mini-trading ranges, each following breakouts from larger consolidations. Large Caps show this best

The S&P cleared a dual 4-month and 6-week consolidation before shaping the past 8-day 'flag'. Look for a break of 2,740 and a push to challenge the next swing high at 2,800 - although a test of this should be enough to go on and challenge all-time highs.


The Dow Jones Index could be considered to have broken from its mini-consolidation. Volume was...

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Phil's Favorites

Impeachment Fantasies

 

Impeachment Fantasies

Courtesy of 

The stock market seems to have gotten very good at ignoring the coming constitutional crisis. It may one day start to care again but I think it’s fairly clear that at this point, it cares not at all. I think the market is smarter than many pundits give it credit for.

New all-time highs in the Russell 2000 small cap index this week make it clear that investors expect consumers and businesses to go on with their lives regardless of what happens in Washington D.C. – and that they’ll continue to benefit from the improved economy and drastically lower tax environment.

The Mue...



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Zero Hedge

Elon Musk's Great Model 3 Bait and Switch

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Tesla Model 3 was supposed to be the "entry-level" electric vehicle for the middle class, that "made it up in volume": leading up to the release of the Model 3, it was positioned as the people's EV that everybody could afford and that, once mass produced, would help Tesla generate cash and profits consistently. The car's relatively modest $35,000 price tag was heralded as one of its key selling points, low enough that Tesla could generate the volume needed to gain operating leverage from selling it to the masses. 

But as Elon Musk himself admitted this weekend on Twitte...



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Biotech

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

In 2013, Kyoto University’s Shinya Yamanaka was awarded one of the first Breakthrough Prizes in Life Sciences for his discovery of “induced” stem cells that enabled researchers to convert adult cells back into stem cells.

The Breakthrough Prize is not to be sneezed at. Founded in 2013, the prize “honours transformative advances toward understanding living systems and extending human life.” It’s also the most financially attractive aw...



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Insider Scoop

36 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Quotient Limited (NASDAQ: QTNT) rose 29 percent to close at $6.05 following commencement of EU blood grouping field trial.
  • Mannatech, Incorporated (NASDAQ: MTEX) climbed 22.64 percent to close at $19.50 on Friday after the company reported commencement of modified Dutch auction cash tender for up to $16 million of common stock.
  • Shineco, Inc. (NASDAQ: TYHT) gained 19.41 percent to close at $2.03 following Q3 results. Shineco posted Q3 earnings of $0.21 per share on sales of $13.3 million.
  • ...


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Digital Currencies

5 Factors That Drive Bitcoin's Ups & Downs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Kayla Matthews via Hackernoon.com

The price of Bitcoin has been wildly volatile. From November to December 2017, it increased by 223 percent. It fell by 59 percent between January and February 2018, increased by 64 percent from February to March and then dropped again during March by 40 percent.

While this isn&r...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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