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  1. phil

    HBI/Rookie -   Well, if you were never in it, no harm in waiting.  I still like the trade – it has a long way to go but we'll be picking a new entry from scratch in Jan, when we begin re-deploying out capital.  

    It's up 10% from our entry and hopefully will pull back a bit before racing up to $22.

    • Subscription notice: You can automatically receive Stocks to Watch every week by following the SA Stocks to Watch account and setting email alerts on.
    • Key events are scheduled for the companies listed below next week.
    • Expected IPO filings: Adial Pharmaceutical (Pending:ADIL), Casa Systems (Pending:CASA) and Burger King Brasil on Dec. 14; Newmark Group (Pending:NMRK) on Dec. 15.
    • Star Wars: The timing for Disney's (NYSE:DISThe Last Jedi opening on Dec. 15 is promising amid the consumer spending bounce and with the MoviePass (NASDAQ:HMNY) model generating interest with millennials. Numbers to watch include the early box office forecast for a +$200M opening weekend and the $248M mark delivered by The Force Awakens in 2015. Theater chains AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), Cinemark (NYSE:CNK), Regal Entertainment (NYSE:RGC), Marcus Corporation (NYSE:MCS) and IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) hope for a strong buzz factor into the weekend, while Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) eyes a Star Wars toys boom.
    • Bitcoin watch: Looking for Bitcoin exposure without having to deal with tokens, mining and eye-popping volatility? Fundstrat says potential Bitcoin/Blockchain equity plays include Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTCQX:GBTC), MGT Capital Investments (OTCQB:MGTI), HIVE Blockchain Technologies (OTCPK:PRELF), U.S. Global Investors (NASDAQ:GROW), DigitalX (OTC:DGGXF), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), CBOE Holdings (NASDAQ:CBOE), Overstock.com (NASDAQ:OSTK), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Square (NYSE:SQ).
    • Notable earnings reports: Salesforce.com on Dec. 11; Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY), VeriFone (NYSE:PAY) on Dec. 12; ABM Industries (NYSE:ABM) and Nordson (NASDAQ:NDSN) on Dec. 13; Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), Jabil (NYSE:JBL) and Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) on Dec. 14. See Seeking Alpha's Earnings Calendar for more.
    • Quiet period expirations: Retail upstart Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX) is up over 50% from where its IPO into its quiet period expiration on Dec. 12. Other names to watch include SendGrid (NYSE:SEND) and Arsanis (Pending:ASNS) on Dec. 11, along with Bluegreen Vacations (Pending:BXG), SailPoint Technologies (NYSE:SAIL) and Level Brands (NYSEMKT:LEVB) on Dec. 12.
    • IPO/secondary share lockup period expirations: Athenex (NASDAQ:ATNX) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) on Dec. 11; Portola Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:PTLA) and Adomani (NASDAQ:ADOM) on Dec. 12; Boston Omaha (OTCQX:BOMN), Interspace Diagnostics (NASDAQ:IDXG), Curis (NASDAQ:CRIS) and Workhorse (NASDAQ:WKHS) on Dec. 13; Acushnet (NASDAQ:GOLF) on Dec. 14; Genpact (NYSE:G) on Dec. 15.
    • Annual meetings: The headliner of the week is Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ:DECK) on Dec. 14 amid the heated proxy fight between the retailer and Marcato Capital. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) and 1-800-Flowers.com (NASDAQ:FLWS) on Dec. 11, as well as United Natural Foods (NASDAQ:UNFI) on Dec. 13 are also on the calendar.
    • Analyst/investor meetings: Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE:AJG) on Dec. 12; TE Connectivity (NYSE:TEL), Lending Tree (NASDAQ:TREE) and Jones Lang Lasalle (NYSE:JLL) on Dec. 13.
    • Business update/Guidance calls: American Water Works (NYSE:AWK), Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNFOTCPK:GLNCY) and Principal Financial (NYSE:PFG) on Dec. 12; Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) on Dec. 13; Axalta Coating Systems (NYSE:AXTA) and Prudential (NYSE:PRU) on Dec. 14; MetLife (NYSE:MET) on Dec. 15.
    • M&A watch: Deals are heating up in a number of sectors. The deadline for bids on Unilever's (UNUL) spreads business is Monday, while an Apollo Global acquisition of Qdoba (NASDAQ:JACK) is said to be imminent. Disney (DIS) and Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXFOXA) are a step closer to striking an asset deal which could include Hulu.
    • FCC watch: The commission will vote on repealing current net neutrality rules during a scheduled meeting. The usual media suspects such as Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Sprint (NYSE:S), AT&T (NYSE:T), Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) and Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) are likely to weigh in on the consequences of the vote.
    • Credit card delinquency reports: American Express (NYSE:AXP), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Capital One (NYSE:COF), Discover Financial (NYSE:DFS), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF) are all due to post credit card chargeoff data on Dec. 15.
    • Cowen Networking & Cybersecurity Summit: Presenters at the gathering from Dec. 12-13 include execs from Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET), MACOM Technology (NASDAQ:MTSI), NeoPhotonics (NYSE:NPTN), Check Point Software (NASDAQ:CHKP), Cisco (CSCO) and Quatenna Communications (NASDAQ:QTNA).
    • Barron's mentions: The publication cuts right to the chase to name its top picks for 2018. Alphabet (GOOGGOOGL), Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.ABRK.B), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE:EPD), Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY), Anthem (NYSE:ANTM) and US Foods Holding (NYSE:USFD) all make the list. There's a less optimistic view on the off-price retail sector expressed, with Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST) and TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) seen at risk for share price falls.
    • Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, Nasdaq.com, CNBC.
    • Goldman Sachs equity research analysts publish a slew of sector-by-sector outlooks for 2018:
    • Aerospace/Defense: Bullish on defense, more selective in commercial aerospace – top picks NOCLLLFLIRHRSLDOSTDG.
    • Agriculture: Neutral overall but potential upside in nitrogen, value-added protein and biofuels – top picks CFUANDARGPRETSN.
    • Autos: Cautious as North America auto cycle likely continues "to cool off, on its way to a normalized SAAR by 2020" – potential strength in secular growth exposed names APTVDLPHVC.
    • Chemicals: Three interesting value names, including two with near-term catalysts in sight (DWDPPAH) and one that does yet not fully reflect an underlying mix shift in earnings (NYSE:EMN).
    • Construction: Prefers building products on more dynamism driven by continued input inflation, rising rates, peak PMI and an evolving legislative environment - MHK is top pick.
    • Machinery: Group is a buy as share of industrial capex is 20% below normalized levels, used equipment inventories are lean, Street estimates are still beatable – top picks CATDEAGCOTRMB.
    • Medical Technology: Attractive view on med tech, neutral on life science tools – adds HOLX to conviction list; other top picks BAXEWISRG.
    • Multi-Industry: Optimistic as bottom-up capex remains positive while tax reform could spur investment, though high quality cyclicals preferred - IR upgraded to Buy.
    • Packaging, Paper & Forest Products: WRK is top pick given exposure to e-commerce growth and self-help opportunities.
    • Transports: Sees divergence between airfreight/logistics (attractive) and rails (cautious) due to continued strength in consumer/logistics business lines, deceleration in industrial/commodity business lines – recommends FDXUPSXPOCNI.
    • Source: Bloomberg First Word
    • General Electric (NYSE:GE) shares are reiterated with a Neutral rating at Goldman Sachs, which says it is staying on the sidelines despite the recent selloff until it sees more evidence that a turnaround – proof of a recovery in cash flows and end markets – is working.
    • Analyst Joe Ritchie says 2018 will be a transitional year for GE, with investors focused on whether or not the company can meet its targets: "On cost-outs, GE is targeting $3B-plus of actions in 2017-18 to generate $2B-plus of net benefits, and we believe it will be critical for GE to demonstrate core margin expansion."
    • Progress in GE Power also is a key area of debate, and the "ability to offset end market weakness with cost-outs and show 60% free cash flow conversion in 2018 (vs. negative in 2017) will be a key measure in increasing confidence [and] believability that fundamentals can turn around by 2019-20," Ritchie writes.
    • The same analyst who presciently slapped a Sell rating on GE also is bearish on 3M(NYSE:MMM), reiterating his Underweight rating on the view that 3M's valuation reflects too much optimism about its fundamentals.
    • J.P. Morgan's Stephen Tusa thinks the market is mistaking some cyclical improvement for visible, execution-driven growth that 3M can control, when these factors actually are out of its hands.
    • "Similar to lower multiple/lower quality stories, 3M has enough noise in the numbers (gains representing 5%-10% of earnings, dramatic stock comp payments) to call it the beginning of a trend line on margins [but] 3M this cycle has had a 'perfect storm' for relative outperformance as lack of oil/gas exposure has boosted relative organic while providing significant raw materials benefits, an element that is cyclical," Tusa writes.
    • The analyst concludes that 3M is a staple-like asset but he does "not see enough growth and/or free cash flow to put into the compounder category where it currently stands."





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Phil's Favorites

Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius

 

Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius

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Last week Barry sat down for an amazing conversation with Joel Greenblatt, author of You Can Be a Stock Market Genius (originally titled Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius).

Greenblatt tells a story about when he went to a school in Harlem to talk with kids about investing. To explain how markets work and how they influence behavior, he brought a jar of jelly beans into the class room and had the kids write down how many beans they thought were in the jar. The average guess was 1771, remarkably close to the actual number, 1776. Before he revealed the average guess, he wen...



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On a global scale, the U.S. economy is massive at close to $19 trillion in size.

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Semiconductors Approach 200-day MA; S&P Sleeper Play

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There were modest losses today with most indices holding the status quo from Friday. The one exception was the Semiconductor Index as it lost over 1% in a confirmed break of support. However, it does have the 200-day MA for a likely test tomorrow. All technicals are negative and relative performance took another step lower but no change there.


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Bitcoin Tops $9,000 As NY Fed Says "Doesn't Pass Test Of What Currency Should Be"

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But while Bitcoin is rebounding, the rest of the cryto-space is soaring...with Ripple up 85% and Ethereum up lamost 65% in the last two weeks...

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Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

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Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

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Buffett At His Best

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The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

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Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

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The tricks propagandists use to beat science

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The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

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We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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