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  1. phil

    Edison says fire investigations now include possible role of its facilities

    • Edison International (EIX -7%) sinks in early trading following an investor update on the wind-driven Southern California wildfires that are affecting customers and electric service in Southern California Edison's service territory.
    • The causes of the wildfires are being investigated by fire protection agency CAL FIRE, other fire agencies and the California Public Utilities Commission, but SoCal Edison believes the investigations now include locations beyond those identified last week as the apparent origin of the fires as well as the possible role of its facilities.
    • The fires have destroyed more than 1,000 structures since igniting last week; the Thomas Fire – one of six in total – is larger than all of New York City and was ~20% contained as of last night, according to CAL FIRE.

    Canadian oil plunges to three-year-low on pipeline, rail bottleneck

    • Prices for heavy Canadian crude oil tumble to a three-year low against benchmark prices, widening by more than US$10/bbl since August, as pipeline companies including Enbridge (ENB-0.6%) ration space amid high Western Canadian inventories.
    • ENB said yesterday it would ration space on some of its pipelines by another 5% in December, which comes after it required shippers on light oil feeder pipelines around Edmonton, Alberta, to restrict deliveries because of “high inventories.”
    • Crude export pipelines already were filling up as new oil sands production enters the market; for example, output at Suncor Energy’s (SU +0.4%) Fort Hills mine has started and is scheduled to reach 20K-40K bbl/day by next quarter.
    • TransCanada’s (TRP -0.6%) Keystone pipeline to the U.S. shut for nearly two weeks last month after a spill in South Dakota, contributing to rising oil inventories in Western Canada; service has resumed, but the pipeline is required to run at a reduced pressure, meaning less oil can pass through.
    • Also, space on rail cars is in short supply after three disruptions to the Canadian National Railways (CNI -0.3%) system in the past two months, while business on all of the company’s lines is up 10% since last year, CNI says.

    Oasis Petroleum -15% after paying 'hefty price' for Delaware Basin acres

    • Oasis Petroleum (OAS -14.7%) plunges ~15%, most on the NYSE, in heavy volume as investors show their dismay over the company's planned public offering of 32M common shares.
    • OAS agreed to buy 20.3K acres in the Delaware Basin for $946M, consisting of $483M in cash and 46M common shares of common stock, meaning the company is issuing 78M new shares – substantial dilution to existing investors considering it had ~233M shares outstanding as of the end of Q3.
    • The deal also is viewed as a departure from its Bakken-focused strategy, and its per acre price of $46,660 looks like a hefty premium; Motley Fool's Matthew DiLallo notes two deals in the same region by Marathon Oil in March, one in which MRO paid $1.1B for 70K net acres (~$15K/acre) and the second  in which it spent $700M for 21K net acres (~$33,333/acre).
    • SunTrust Robinson Humphrey downgrades shares to Hold from Buy with an $11 price target, cut from $14, citing the "hefty price" OAS paid to enter the Delaware Basin.
    • An explosion this morning at a major natural gas facility near Austria’s border with Slovakia killed one person and injured 21 while causing some gas flow disruptions to other countries.
    • The Baumgarten plant east of Vienna is one of Europe's most important gas supply hubs as the key entry point for Russian gas into Austria and onward to Italy and other countries; Austrian and Italian gas prices are surging as a result of the blast.
    • Austrian operator OMV (OTCPK:OMVJF) has closed the facility, and Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY), which feeds gas to the hub, says it has been forced to reroute supplies to customers.
    • Analysts say a prolonged outage would reduce stocks and set the stage for higher prices in parts of Europe this winter, with Italy the most vulnerable.

    Glencore to double cobalt production as automaker demand surges

    • Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNFOTCPK:GLNCY) says it is the “best placed” among diversified mining companies to profit from the electrification of vehicles and plans to double its production of cobalt in the next two years, while also confirming that it is in talks with Tesla, Apple and Volkswagen for possible cobalt supply deals.
    • Glencore's Katanga Mining unit in the Democratic Republic of Congo expects to produce as much as 34K tons of cobalt in 2019 vs. the 20K tons/year guidance CEO Ivan Glasenberg gave in August, which could give Glencore control of ~40% of world supplies.
    • The company’s Mutanda Mining, also in the Congo, was the largest cobalt producer last year, shipping 24.5K tons out of a worldwide market of 109.5K tons, but the planned increase at Katanga will make the mine the world’s biggest by a comfortable margin.
    • Earlier: Glencore sees strong year of trading as metals rally (Dec. 12)
    • Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAYannounces a record month for its namesake brand.
    • Volkswagen deliveries were up 11.8% globally to 594.3K units.
    • China deliveries rose 5.2% to 285K to help offset a dip in Europe. North America deliveries were up 3.5% to 51.4K.
    • YTD Volkswagen brand deliveries +4.0% to 5.417M units.
    • The company says orders for e-models are on the rise.
    • Consumer Edge analyst James Albertine forecasts Tesla (TSLA +2%) will generate $2.0B to $3.5B in annual revenue from its truck business depending upon volume and final pricing.
    • The outlook is based on Tesla capturing 5% of what is expected to be a smaller Class 8 market in a few years.
    • In previous reports, Albertine has pointed out that Tesla’s competitive edge is in battery manufacturing and autonomous software.
    • Consumer Edge has an Overweight rating and $385 price target on Tesla.

    Chicken processing stocks under pressure

    • The chicken processing industry is being hit by a price collusion lawsuit filed by a group of grocery cooperatives and smaller grocery chains.
    • The legal action alleges price fixing through the Georgia Dock Benchmark Price Index.
    • Defendents include Tyson Foods (TSN -0.2%), Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC -1.3%), Perdue Farms and Sanderson Farms (SAFM -0.9%).
    • The group fell off yesterday on concerns over the suit and retail chicken pricing. On a longer time fram, investors should keep an eye on a push to tax producers based on greenhouse gas emissions.
    • Sources: Bloomberg, Agweb.com

    Toy story: Mattel weak after downgrade, Star Wars hopes for Hasbro

    • Shares of Mattel (MAT -4.8%) trade weak again as investors assess the company's update on Q4 sales issued yesterday.
    • The stock was also hit with a downgrade by Moness Crespi Hardt to Neutral from Buy on concerns that toy sales are trending lower this holiday season.
    • Hasbro (HAS +0.1%) is holding up today, despite the negative view on toy sales. Early positive reviews on Star Wars: The Last Jedi could be helping to boost sentiment.
    • Previously: Mattel announces private offering of senior notes due 2025 (Dec. 11)
    • Previously: Ratings agencies weigh in on Mattel (Dec. 11)

    CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing players sell off, down as much as 4%

    • CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing outfits Editas Medicine (EDIT -2.2%), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA-2%) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -3.6%) are all under pressure mid-session.
    • The culprit appears to be an article from EurekAlert!, published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, citing a study implying that people's unique genetic differences could undermine the efficacy of CRISPR/Cas9, regarded by many as the "next big thing" in biotech. Such differences could mean than the gene edited therapy will need to be customized to each patient's genome.
    • The study, led by Boston Children's Hospital and the University of Montreal, analyzed 7,444 previously published whole-genome sequences to determine if any of the individuals carried DNA sequence variants in the areas targeted by the guide RNAs used to direct CRISPR/Cas9 enzymes to the desired DNA locations for ~30 high-priority diseases. Results revealed that about 50% of analyzed guide RNAs could be potentially affected by such variants. In a few cases, the genetic variants could cause off-target editing which, in rare cases, could have serious consequences.
    • The data will appear this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition.

    Big Media shadow over Netflix?

    • Is big media a big problem for Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)? The Wall Street Journal's Elizabeth Winkler notes the Disney-Fox and AT&T-Time Warner deals on top of the huge original content push from Apple and Amazon could disrupt the streaming scene.
    • "While the deal making may not dethrone Netflix, it faces risks. High audience numbers will be driven by blockbuster shows, not loyalty, which helps explain why content exclusivity on platforms is rising," writes Winkler on the development.
    • Shares of Netflix are up 50% YTD.
    • Costco (NASDAQ:COST) is offering members the opportunity to buy a one-year subscription to MoviePass and Fandor in a package deal for a flat fee of $89.99.
    • MoviePass is the surging movie ticket subscription service that has sent shockwaves through the exhibitor sector, while Fandor is a highly-regarded streaming provider of independent films.
    • The offer will only be available online at Costco.com until December 18.
    • Shares of MoviePass owner Helios and Matheson Analytics (NASDAQ:HMNY) are up 28% in early trading off the development. Fandor is a private company.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Positive reviews for Star Wars: The Last Jedi are providing a bit of a lift for AMC Entertainment (AMC +3.1%) and Cinemark Holdings (CNK +0.9%) ahead of the key opening weekend. Regal Entertainment (RGC) trades slightly lower after a Cineworld investor questioned the pending merger earlier today.
    • Rolling Stone calls the latest Star Wars installment the "epic" you have been waiting for.
    • New York Times: "Lo, it is a satisfying, at times transporting entertainment. Remarkably, it has visual wit and a human touch, no small achievement."
    • IndieWire say director Ron Johnson gives "new hope to the sprawling franchise by balancing off the spectacle with a fresh bag of tricks."
    • After 138 reviews, the Rotten Tomatoes rating on The Last Jedi is 93%.
    • A common complaint on the film was the 2 hour and 32 minutes running time, a length which will also hold down the number of screening during the opening weekend.

    Verizon +2.4% as Nomura upgrades to Buy, sees 15%-plus upside

    • Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is up 2.4% and inching close to its 52-week high (set in the first few trading days of 2017) after an upgrade to Buy at Nomura Instinet.
    • Jeffrey Kvaal had previously rated the stock Neutral, as have about two dozen other analysts.
    • But he's joining 10 others in the Buy column, and boosted his price target on the stock to $61 from $47, implying about 15% upside from today's higher price.

    Bitcoin Futures: 3 Nightmare Scenarios 





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Zero Hedge

Visualizing U.S. Energy Consumption In One Chart

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Every year, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a federal research facility funded by the Department of Energy and UC Berkeley, puts out a fascinating Sankey diagram that shows the fate of all energy that gets generated and consumed in the United States in a given year.

Today’s visualization is the summary of energy consumption for 2017, but you can see previous years going all the way back to 2010 on their website.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Never Begin With the End in Mind

 

Never Begin With the End in Mind

Courtesy of 

The thing about biases is that they’re human, so they’re seen in every walk of life. In who we choose to be friends with, in what news we read, in investing, and in sports.

In Michael Lombardi’s new book Gridiron Genius, which I highly recommend, he talks about all of the biases ...



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Insider Scoop

Splunk's Beat-And-Raise Q1: The Sell-Side Reacts

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SPLK 7 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday Earnings Scheduled For May 24, 2018 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Second Day of Bullish Defense

Courtesy of Declan.

The market had initially reacted to Trump's decision to cancel his North Korean summit before coming to its senses and finishing where it left off yesterday.

For the Russell 2000 it was a bullish doji to follow the 'hammer'; those brave enough to buy the morning dip will be feeling confident as technicals remain bullish.

...

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Digital Currencies

How the US Government Could Effectively Use Crypto

The US government could start, or officially endorse an existing crytpo coin. What they would do is build a fee into the software protocol that went to a single address that they control. This is effectively a tax. The fee could be a transaction fee, a percentage of the next block award, or a combination of both. How this works is every single transaction that occurs everywhere wihtin the system, the fee scalped goes directly to this single address that is owned by the IRS, in this case, the "New-IRS." Forget postcards. We're down to a single dude in one office chair in front of one computer. Imagine that being the IRS, because that's where this is going. The consequences of this mechanism are dramatic. First off the IRS is now one guy. Granted, this guy controls the private key for the most valuable thing in the world. This key would be the single most important key right up there with the nuclear launch code, but the system would most definitely still work. More strikingly, the US...

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Biotech

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

In 2013, Kyoto University’s Shinya Yamanaka was awarded one of the first Breakthrough Prizes in Life Sciences for his discovery of “induced” stem cells that enabled researchers to convert adult cells back into stem cells.

The Breakthrough Prize is not to be sneezed at. Founded in 2013, the prize “honours transformative advances toward understanding living systems and extending human life.” It’s also the most financially attractive aw...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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