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  1. phil

    Good morning!

    Futures popping right up at the open – just madness.  Check out the Nas since 8am:

    They are leading the pack at the moment and the Dow is lagging and needs to pop 24,600.  Can we finish the year at 25,000?  Maybe even the week?  

    UNG/Calch – Seems very messy and I hope you sold some short calls at some point.  UNG is at $5.35 and the 2019 $4s are $1.65 and the $5s are $1 and the short Jan puts are way in the money.  Keep in mind that buying naked calls (or puts) is a suckers game – it's exactly what we try to teach people NOT to do at PSW.  Bottom line is you lost about $4,000 on the calls so there's no "fix" to this thing – it's just a matter of whether or not you want to continue being long Nat Gas to try to make $4,000 back.  

    As a new trade for UNG, looking to make $5,000, I'd go with the following:

    • Sell 40 2020 $5 puts for 0.80 ($3,200)
    • Buy 60 2020 $5 calls for $1.45 ($8,700) 
    • Sell 60 2020 $7 calls for 0.70 ($4,200) 

    That's net $1,300 on the $12,000 spread and, while you are waiting, you can sell 20 (1/3) April $6 calls for 0.25 ($500) as picking up $500 per quarter will drop your net to $0 in less than a year.  

    In your case, you are already down $4,000 on the puts so down $8,000(ish) total (assuming no calls were sold) and this spread does give you back that and 50% more if all goes well.  Downside is still owing 4,000 UNG at $5 ($20,000) but you're on the hook for 1,000 shares for $10,000 now – so not much worse off, I think.

    FTR/Baron – $10.36 today!  Unless you want to add more to the position, there's not much to do.  It depends what calls you sold and for how much, of course, but let's say you have our LTP position, which was:

    And our call in the last Review was:

    • FNSR – We got more aggressive last month and now we're being punished.  May as well take advantage and roll our 20 2019 $23 calls at $3.10 ($6,300) to 40 of the 2020 $17 ($6.50)/25 ($3.80) bull call spreads at $2.70 ($10,800) and one day we will sell short calls too.  Not that we need to but we can also roll the 10 short 2019 $25 puts at $7.50 ($7,500) to 20 short 2020 $20 puts at $5.30 ($10,600).  That's net about $1,000 for our changes and we're in a $32,000 spread for net/net about $14,000.  
    • FTR – Can't not DD here.  Let's buy 6,000 more at $6.95 ($41,700) and sell 50 of the 2020 $8 calls for $1.10 ($5,500) so we're 1/2 covered with an average cost of $9.56 (and possibly assigned 4,000 more at $10 on the puts side).  If all goes well though, we'll collect $2.16 in dividends so, by the time we get to 2020, our net will be down to $7.40 and then we'll roll the short calls and all will be well (hopefully).

    I included FNSR since it was next to it, in case people were wondering where we left them.  

    Anyway, so with FTR, we had 10,000 shares and we sold 50 (1/2) 2020 $8 calls for $1.10 because we really believed in FTR and the short calls helped pay for the DD without assuming too much more risk (since the non-believers were freaking out at the time).  So now the short 2020 $8s are $2.80 and FTR is at $10.37 so we don't really care if half our position is called away as we still get dividends on 1/2 and we're effectively cashing out for $10.80, which is like cashing now and getting an 0.43 dividend too!  

    If we just had 5,000 FTR and fully covered them (possibly because the non-stop stream of FU's made us feel like it was a mistake to hold on, rather than sticking to our trading plan) then we could add 20 of the 2020 $5 calls for $5.30 ($10,600) and roll the 50 2020 $8 calls at $2.80 ($1,400) to 70 $12 calls at $1.90 ($13,300) and that would ensure nothing gets called away on dividends for net $11,300 but the dividend is only $3,000 so you are risking $8,300 on a stock that's almost certain to pull back at least 0.60, which is another $3,000 so it's back to a matter of faith as FTR will still have a rocky ride going forward.

    Delay/StJ – Good luck with that. That only counts for Democratic Presidents in their last 18 months of office picking Supreme Court judges, apparently.  

    All news/Baron – Now you are catching on!  

    OpenBazaar/Grass – Oh there's lots of ways, including sending them traffic or good old cash payments.  We're evaluating what will give us the best bang for the buck with GRE.

    SVXY/StJ – The VIX hasn't moved much all year (just stays low) but SVXY goes up and up and up.





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Zero Hedge

Apple Slides After Taiwan Semi Blames "Very High-End Smartphone" For Unexpectedly Poor Guidance

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In the latest confirmation that earnings from Apple are set to disappoint, perhaps bigly, overnight, the world's largest semiconductor producer, Taiwan Semiconductor, reported disappointing guidance, with management blaming a "very high-end smartphone" prompting renewed questions about the collapse in global iPhone demand.

The market wasted no time to price in the ongoing decline in demand for $1000+ iPhones and Taiwan Semi ADRs fell more than 5% in pre-market trading while Apple, Nvidia and AMD are all dow...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Thursday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard is set to speak in Washington at 8:00 a.m. ET.
  • Data on initial jobless claims for the latest week will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Philly Fed general conditions index for April is schedule for release at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Governor Randal Quarles will testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 9:30 a.m. ET.
  • The index of leading economic indicators for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Energy Information Administration’s weekly report on natural gas stocks in underground storage is schedule for release at 10:30 a.m. ET.
  • Data on money supply for the recent week will be released at 4:30 p.m....


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Phil's Favorites

Our Strange Attraction To Self-Destructive Behaviors, Choices, & Incentives

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

The gravitational pull of self-destructive behaviors, choices and incentives is scale-invariant, meaning that we can discern the strange attraction to self-destruction in the entire scale of human experience, from individuals to families to groups to entire societies.

The proliferation of self-destructive behaviors, choices and incentives in our socio-economic system is profoundly troubling. Exhibit 1 is the opioid epidemic (chart below). How did we reach this level of individual and social self-destruction?

There are culprits aplenty: a "healthcare" (sickcare) system that incentivizes maximizing profits by whatever means are available (for example, claiming addictive medications aren't addictive); a system that encourages the consumption of c...



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Chart School

Short Opportunity Negated

Courtesy of Declan

Well, that didn't last long.

The shorting opportunities which offered themselves yesterday didn't last the morning; morning gaps held beyond the first half-hour of trading and bar a small sell-off into the close markets finished higher and above key moving averages and trading channels.

The Dow created a breakout which now offers a potential long play. Stops go on a loss of 24,600. Technicals finished with a new long 'buy' trigger in Stochastics.
 


The S&P finished above the 3-week ...



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Digital Currencies

Only 0.04% Of Taxpayers Are Reporting Any Bitcoin Gains To The IRS

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

With the US tax deadline just one day away, crypto investors who traded actively during the market's run-up and inevitable meltdown should have a lot of activity to report to the IRS.

But according to a survey conducted by Credit Karma, only a handful of people who have filed their taxes using Credit Karma's tools have reported bitcoin holdings or holdings of some other cryptocurrency - fewer than 100 out of a total of 250,000 filers, or a whopping 0.04% in total.

In all likelihood, this means that (tens of) thousands of bitcoin traders are refusing to pay the IRS, either betting on the anonymity of the blockchain to conceal th...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida

...

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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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