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  1. phil

    SVXY/StJ – Selling the short-term puts works like a charm. 

    FTR/Baron – Did you do the adjustment?

    FTR – This is a tough one as we're miles down but they are going to pay an 0.60 dividend on Dec $14th and that's 10% of the stock price so it's silly not to double down and buy 2,000 more shares for $6.73 ($13,460) and we'll sell 20 of the 2020 $5 calls for $1.90 ($3,800) so that plus the $1,200 we collect on this quarter's dividend means our 2,000 new shares are costing net $8,460 or $4.23/share.  That being the case, we may as well sell 20 of the 2020 $4 puts for $2 ($4,000) and roll the 20 short 2019 $10 puts ($6) to 40 short 2020 $4 puts (60 total).   That drops our net on the new 2,000 shares to $2.23 and we make 100% if called away at $5 and, if they keep paying a $2.40 annual dividend (doubt it) that would be like collecting 27% per quarter in dividends. 

    In that case, we still had 2,000 open shares, so the same 1/2 cover and I'd lock in gains by covering the other 2,000 now with the 2020 $8 calls and letting the new 2,000 get called away for $5 since the main reason to DD was because we were worried FTR was going lower and now it bounced back, so no more worry there.  The same logic applies, you can get more aggressive but we already sold the put for $2 so your net on the new $2,000 was just $2.83 and getting called away at $5 is a $2.17 profit in less than a month – not sure what more you expect out of a trade…

    Effectively, if you get called away and your basis was $15 on the uncovered $2,000, this lowers it by $2.17 to $12.83 and you have 60 2020 $4 puts so, if FTR goes lower, then you have 8,000 shares at $6.21 avg and, if FTR goes higher, then you keep getting your 0.60 dividends and you are even by the end of this year and profitable after that and THEN you can worry about rolling the 20 short 2020 $8 calls.  

    Fed/Mkucs – I think a bigger raise will spook the markets but it's not likely after that CPI report.  No sign of wage pressure either.  If they don't raise rates, the Dollar will drop and that will support the market a bit but, on the whole, I don't see it being a huge boost though Dow 25,000 is so close.

    GE/Yodi – The difference is HOV had exciting premiums to sell.  With GE, for $17.85, you give up an 0.48 dividend and you can sell the 2020 $18 puts for $2.10 and buy the $18 ($2.75)/$22 ($1.30) bull call spread for $1.45 and that's net 0.65 credit so your net entry would be $17.35, not much different than buying the stock so not a big deal to play.  You could sell the $15 puts for $1.20 and drop the net entry in exchange for the credit but still only $4 potential upside and a bit less downside risk.  The low VIX makes these trades a lot less fun. 

    MLPs/QC – Why pick one when you can just go with LNG, who are doing half the exporting?   We liked them at $40 but $48 not too terrible and you can sell the 2020 $42.50 puts for $5.50 and buy the 2020 $42.50 ($13.50)/$52.50 ($7.50) bull call spread at $6 for net 0.50 on the $10 spread.  If you bought 10 of those for $500, you could sell 3 of the Jan $47.50 calls for $1.85 ($555) and that's just 37 days out of 765 you have to sell so paying yourself an almost monthly dividend of 100% on your cash while you wait to see if you get 20x returns.  Seems more exciting than trying to pick an MLP winner just to get a 13% dividend…

    That's a good one for the Watch List!  

    GRE/BDC – Thanks for clarifying.  

    GRE/Jet – Well Greg will take them at an 0.00044 exchange rate as a Membership payment so at least you have that outlet for now.  Biggest transaction today was someone buying 4,239,507 GreenCoins for 0.08479 BitCoins which, at $18,000 is $1,526 seems like 0.00036 to me.  CoinMarketcap says GRE is at 0.00038.  

    GNC/Torquio – Nothing new, just waiting to see what they announce re. restructuring debt but that's going to probably be when they announce next earnings (2/15ish).

    TEVA/Jabob – Pretty much the same restructuring noises that have been going on all month, while it's climbed 35%.  I guess it would be nice if they never, ever pulled back and every day was green but, if you want that, you should buy BitCoins or DIA – not real stocks.   

    TEVA WTF!

    TEVA WTF???

    TEVA tease.. DANGIT!

    TEVA down 4% dangit! 

    M WTF? 

    TEVA, FTR, M, GE, GNC none of them seem to want to let the others win the POS FU stock of the year award.

     

    So, you can continue to be a deer in the headlights or learn to go with the flow on these things.  As noted on GNC in our last review (11/22):

    • GNC – Keep in mind here we are in for net $2.70 unless the stock is under $7.50 in which case we own 12,000 at a $5.10 avg but, either way, we're in the money at $6.45 and it's great for a new trade as the paper loss is gigantic – despite the fact that it's "on track".  
    • GE – NOW we think it's the bottom (waited last month).  Let's buy another 2,000 shares at $18.30 and buy back the 20 short 2019 $25 calls at 0.37 and sell 20 2020 $18 calls for $3.25 so the net cost of our new 2,000 is $15.42.  We have 20 short 2019 $28 puts at $9.80 ($19,600) and let's roll those to 25 short 2020 $25 puts at $7.35 ($18,375).  
    • M – $20 is a great floor and we're well-positioned. 
    • TEVA – Now the 2020s are out so we can roll our 30 2019 $17.50 calls at $1.95 ($5,850) to 40 of the 2020 $12.50 ($5)/20 ($2.50) bull call spread at $2.50 ($10,000) and we'll roll our 30 short 2019 $25 puts at $11.70 ($35,100) to 30 short 2019 $20 puts at $8 ($24,000).  As we initially collected $28,500 on the short puts, our net credit becomes $17,400 or $5.80 per contract so our break-even becomes $14.20.

    Tulips/BDC – Well anything that happened 400 years ago is going to be tricky to document.    I suppose you could compare BitCoins to gold back in 2010, when people lost faith in money and it went from $200 to $4,000 before collapsing.

    Image result for gold bubble

    I'm sure you'll say this time is different because it's a new paradigm, etc. but, at the moment, I'd rather buy /YM or hold onto my 10 /SI longs ($122.74) than own a BitCoin for $18,000.  We can benchmark that and see how things go.  My /SI longs are using $57K in margin so call it 3 BitCoins worth. 

    Fed/Mkucs – Yes, it is what they do but they are entrusted to do it with restraint and, failing to do so, they risk devaluing the currency.  It is necessary to grow the money supply to reflect the growing economy or Dollars would now be worth at least $15.88 (an ounce of silver).  

    Related image

    /CL/Japar – It's been way too tricky to call.  Without an obvious toppy move, I can't get interested in playing it.  $58.50 has been a reliable top, of course and any break below $57.50 is shortable – same line we've been playing since early November but below $57.50 is too iffy for me.

    Oh yeah, we forgot about today's report:

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -5.1M barrels vs. -3.8M consensus, -5.6M last week.
    • Gasoline +5.7M barrels vs. +2.5M consensus, +6.8M last week.
    • Distillates -1.4M barrels vs. +1.0M consensus, +1.7M last week.
    • Futures +0.23% to $57.27.

    Build in /RB is a big concern and net/net, not much of a draw.  

    Futures/Japar – No, they are essentially where I want them.  

    Delay/StJ – Well they could ask but I doubt the GOP will see it that way.  

    Crypto/BDC – But you do see that, if we had real, limited supplies of currency – that a crash like we had in 2008 would destroy the global economy.  Without the Fudge Factor of the Central Banksters – a major correction like that would run BitCoins up as much as the markets and housing go down, transferring massive amounts of wealth from non-holders to holders and, since the crypto holders don't employ the non-holders – there would be no way for them to earn it back without taking massive pay cuts and selling their stuff for far less than they paid for it.  

    Go silver!  Already I'm outperforming BitCoin, which si down to $17,200 now.  





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Zero Hedge

Simon Black On "The Coming Boom In Gold Prices..."

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In June 1884, a local farmer named Jan Gerritt Bantjes discovered gold on his property in a quiet corner of the South African Republic.

Though no one had any idea at the time, Bantjes’ farm was located on a vast geological formation known as the Witwatersrand Basin… which just happens to contain the world’s largest known gold reserves.

Within a few months, other local farmers star...



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Phil's Favorites

The hypodermic effect: How propaganda manipulates our emotions

 

The hypodermic effect: How propaganda manipulates our emotions

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg departs after testifying on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., in April 2018 about the use of Facebook data to target American voters in the 2016 presidential election and data privacy. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

Courtesy of Isaac Nahon-Serfaty, University of Ottawa

The scandal surrounding the improper use of data by Cambridge Analytica and Facebook in the 2016 U.S. election is reminiscent of the old debates about propagand...



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Chart School

S&P To Test 200-day MA

Courtesy of Declan

After yesterday's selling today's late recovery was a chance for bulls to catch some breadth.

The S&P came close to tagging the 200-day MA on the intraday low. The index is on a path to the lower channel. There was no technical change and relative performance remains weak.
 


The Nasdaq stalled mid-decline. Today's doji did not appear at a natural support level and the 200-day MA still looks the better support test but aggressive longs may try fish for a position here with a stop on a loss of 6,926.
...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto Billionaire Sued By VC Giant Sequoia Over Collapsed Funding Deal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Marie Huillet, CoinTelegraph.com

Venture capital firm Sequoia is suing Zhao Changpeng, the CEO and founder of Binance, currently the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trade volume, for allege...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For April 25, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE: TMO) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $2.4 per share on revenue of $5.63 billion.
  • Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.41 per share on revenue of $37.16 billion.
  • Twitter, Inc. ...


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Biotech

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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