Comment by phil

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phil
December 4th, 2017 at 1:17 pm

SVXY/Pat – It was:

In the OOP, we have:

60 SQQQ June $20 ($4)/$28 ($2.10) bear put spreads at $1.90 ($11,400), now $3.80/1.90 so even and SQQQ is at $22, so this one is fine for now.  

• 20 SVXY March $105 ($20)/$80 (10) bear put spreads at $10 ($20,000), now $12.25/5.25 ($7 = $14,000)
• 15 short SVXY Dec $80 puts at $12.90 ($19,350), now 0.42 ($630) 

So down $6,000 and up $18,720 is net up $12,720 – we finally figured out how to profit from the VIX!   We'll want to keep this going so we may as well roll the 20 March $105 puts ($12.25) to 20 June $115 ($22.50)/90 ($12.75) bear put spreads at $9.75 so we're pocketing $2.50 ($5,000) but we should also roll the 20 short March $80 puts at $5.25 ($10,100) to 15 short Feb $90 puts at $5.60 ($8,400) so we'll spend a little bit of our winnings to stay safe while we're set up to collect another $8,400 if the VIX stays low and, if not, we have $50,000 coming to us before we have to worry about the short puts.  



Butterfly/Kevin – There's no real need to shut down Butteflies but I am considering doing all new portfolios from scratch so new people can go through the whole process.  People following the old trades should know what to do by now and, if not, they can certainly ask.

What does everyone think – all new portfolios for 2018?

If we do liquidate, I think I'd put on a couple of shorts and longs like short TSLA, long HBI – some things I'm pretty confident in regardless of market direction in Q1.

Exeptions/Kevin – Sure, there will be some but, on the whole, I'd kind of like to start again with $100K in STP, OOP and Butterfly and $500K in LTP and get back to a teaching/building cycle.  So, while I might make a buy/keep list – I might not act on it until Jan 2nd, when we begin deciding from scratch how to turn $800,000 into $1.2M over the next 12 months using our 3 core strategies. 

I think, at this point, I've proven my point that the LTP/STP strategy pays off dramatically over time….

Hedges/Lala – Sadly, I am screen impaired today in NYC so I'm going to start doing the main work tomorrow and it's going to take the next couple of weeks to decide exactly what's going on but, like I said – I'd rather just cash it all in (ignoring tax issues) and start from scratch on Jan 2nd.  It doesn't mean you have to – I'll always be here to answer questions on whatever trades you do have. 

Oh, except Mondays.  March 29th is my 55th birthday and the start of my retirement so Monday, March 26th, will be my last working Monday.  In 5 more years I will also retire from Fridays and, at 65, I will retire from Wednesdays. It doesn't mean I won't be around – I will be sometimes – it just means don't plan on it!  We are going to learn to trade 4 days a week and that may mean more weekend hedges but I don't think we'll miss 5 days and, if we can pull it off – you'll get 33% more weekend for the rest of your life!  

In my case, it will give me more weekday time to spend on PSW Investments and our Hedge Fund (Capital Ideas) so you may not see it as retiring but I don't fish or golf or play bridge (poker yes) – so, for me, this is what I do for fun when I retire!  

Of course I love the markets too and, if something interesting is happening – even if I'm away, I will be able to check in and chat.  There's no better place to be during market hours than right here, in our chat room – so, even as a  semi-retired investor – this is where I'll be checking in!  

Canada/BDC – It's an odd coincidence because a lot them have been using BitCoins to store their money and transfer funds to suppliers and, by accident, they got rich simply because they happened to be holding BitCoins when they went crazy.  Then they told 2 friends and so on….

Shooting down/Yodi – As above, I'm for just getting all out for the simplicity of it.  The real question is what will I buy back in Jan? 

Computing/Baron – Things are just nuts.  That's why I want to cash out.  What if people realize these prices make now sense – who are you going to be able to sell to then?