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  1. phil

    Good morning!

    Took a detour last night and ended up getting home late – passed right out after a long day but now it's too much sleep so I'm wide awake at 2am…

    Towelie/Naybob, Baron – I have, on the other hand, always followed Doug Adams' advice on that subject and always have a really good towel.  They are, actually, incredibly useful and versatile from pillows to swaddling babies to make-shift sacks to traction devices for cars that get stuck in the mud or snow, so:

    Image result for don't forget to bring a towel animated gif

    MSFT/Scott – Just caught up in the tech sell-off.  Went from $60 to $85 this year and $55 at the election is 54.5% – kind of due for a pullback, right?

    /SI/Japar – I sure do like /SI but hard to call a bottom here, though I'd have conviction at $16.  I blame BitCoin (as noted at the Nasdaq yesterday) for sucking up $200Bn from the same kind of people who would usually buy silver or gold as an alternate store of wealth.  

    See, only $42Bn of physical gold is actually traded in a year! 

    So I think, when and if the BitCoin fad dies out, or at least calms down, then money will move into silver and gold again because certainly this irresponsible budget by our Government is not good for the Dollar and, even if it does manage to boost the economy – that would likely lead to the inflation the Fed is pushing for and inflation is generally good for gold and silver.

    Fiber/Stu – Good comparison.

    Welcome Mitomeio!  Yes, the FTR ex-dividend is likely to drop the stock a quick 0.60 and yes, if your premium is less than 0.60, it makes sense for the caller to grab your stock and get the dividend.  I would buy the stock for $9.20 and sell the Feb $9 calls for $1 so you are netting in for $8.20 and don't care if you get called away with an 0.80 profit and, if not, you get your dividend.  

    FU Portfolio/DC – Because the idea is to start from scratch and teach people how to build portfolios over time.  By it's nature, the LTP will always end of with "FU Stocks" because we cash in our winners and tend to work our losers so, given those conditions, after 4 years, what will be left in a portfolio?  In the LTP, which started with $500,000, we now have $1.35M in CASH!!! and we have some positions that have a loss and some that have a gain for another net $460,000 positive Dollars.  If I HAD to keep a position I'd sure as Hell keep the 50 AAPL 2019 $150/180 bull call spreads with 15 short $120 puts and 20 short Jan $155 calls at net $41,907 because that's going to return $150,000 so why, if I'm only going to keep 3 positions, would I choose FTR or GNC or TEVA over that?  Those positions are 3 of 61 open stocks in the LTP and our strategy is all about BALANCE, which means we're always going to have some beaten-down value stocks to balance out the momentum stocks we're playing.  I'm sure we'll be adding all of those names back, along with AAPL and other more sensible positions.  I just picked FTR again on the simple covered call above!  

    Thanks GrassHopper!   Yellow on TOS indicates a 6/100 split and $9.45 in cash against old positions.  They standardize everything to 100 units so 1/15th 6.66 shares and they can't give you 6.66 shares so you get 6 shares and the cash value of 0.66 shares (at the time of the split).  





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Zero Hedge

Richmond Fed Survey Crashes By Most In 25 Years

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When hope dies... against expectations of a small rise from March to a 16 print, April came in at a disastrous -3 (the worst data since Sept 2016).

From record highs just a couple months ago, Richmond Fed manufacturing has crashed by the most in the survey's 25 year history into contraction...

It was a bloodbath below the surface too.

New orders collapsed to -9 from +17, order backlogs plunged to -4 from +10 and while wages a...



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Phil's Favorites

Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius

 

Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius

Courtesy of 

Last week Barry sat down for an amazing conversation with Joel Greenblatt, author of You Can Be a Stock Market Genius (originally titled Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius).

Greenblatt tells a story about when he went to a school in Harlem to talk with kids about investing. To explain how markets work and how they influence behavior, he brought a jar of jelly beans into the class room and had the kids write down how many beans they thought were in the jar. The average guess was 1771, remarkably close to the actual number, 1776. Before he revealed the average guess, he wen...



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Chart School

Semiconductors Approach 200-day MA; S&P Sleeper Play

Courtesy of Declan.

There were modest losses today with most indices holding the status quo from Friday. The one exception was the Semiconductor Index as it lost over 1% in a confirmed break of support. However, it does have the 200-day MA for a likely test tomorrow. All technicals are negative and relative performance took another step lower but no change there.


The Nasdaq broke bearish wedge support but is resting on a minor support level.  Today saw a new On-Balance-Volume 'sell' trigger but the 6,800/7,500 trading ra...

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Insider Scoop

32 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Limelight Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: LLNW) gained 21.71 percent to close at $4.99 on Friday following a first-quarter earnings beat. The company also raised its fiscal 2018 estimates.
  • Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) shares surged 17.17 percent to close at $7.78 after reporting strong Q1 results.
  • Farmers Capital Bank Corp (NASDAQ: FFKT) rose 16.45 percent to close at $49.20. WesBanco Inc (NASDAQ: ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tops $9,000 As NY Fed Says "Doesn't Pass Test Of What Currency Should Be"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is now up almost 40% from its lows right before Tax-Day, breaking back above $9,000 for the first time in over a month.

But while Bitcoin is rebounding, the rest of the cryto-space is soaring...with Ripple up 85% and Ethereum up lamost 65% in the last two weeks...

As it seems 'risk-on' is back in the cryptocurrency markets after a month or two of tax turmoil...

Additionally, Bloomberg ...



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Biotech

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>