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  1. phil

    Big Chart – Wow, the Nas may test the 15% line at 6,210 at this rate.  Now we should calculate the drop from the 20% line (6,480) – even though we didn't hit it.  6,350 was the 17.5% line, so over that is going to be bullish again.

    Had we completed the move from 6,210 to 6,480, that would have been 270 points and call it 250 and call it 6,200 and 6,500 so we have a weak retrace of 50 to 6,450 and a strong retrace of 100 to 6,400 and those are clearly blown.  

    6,500 back to 6,200 then gives us a 50-point weak bounce to 6,250 and the 100-point strong bounce at 6,300 and those lines are the ones that are in play and they are bearish lines – as opposed to retrace lines, which are in play from a position of strength when they hold up.  

    Each 25 points on the Nas is significant and 6,350 is the 17.5% line, so super-significant there but we're miles away now and simply trying to make a strong bounce but failing 6,300 today will be a very bearish sign for the Qs.

    Tax Deal/StJ – I think they will push something through.  They don't know how long Trump will be President to sign it.  

    Bitcoin/StJ – I find those numbers hard to believe but I guess it's possible.  

    Interview/Pirate – The one in yesterday's post?   It works for me but I do have a Twitter account.  Sign up and follow me!  

    LB.TO/Tommy – Well what bothers me is that it was 4.9% of one portfolio they sold which, if you apply that to their whole portfolio, can get very ugly.  And now people are going to be looking for discrepancies (like when one person gets food poisoning, the whole chain goes under scrutiny).  I wouldn't jump right in and I'd wait for the audit and, hopefully, it discloses more bad loans but not so bad it justifies the next big sell-off.  You should go into that event prepared for a number and be ready to buy on bad news if it's not as bad as what's priced in.  On the whole, I was loving Canadian banks earlier in the year and last year but now they've appreciated to about the right price – so not too exciting. No reason to short them though.

    HRB/Baron – Aren't you the one I gave the bullish play to?  

    Submitted on 2017/12/05 at 12:01 pm

    HRB/Baron – Now there guys I love when they are cheap:

    There's not likely to be anything exciting about these earnings but you can pick up the July $24 ($4)/30 ($1.40) bull call spread for $2.60 and it pays $6 if all goes well for a $3.40 (130%) in 6 months if all goes well.  If earnings are disappointing, then you can sell puts like 2020 $20 puts, which are $2.60 now while the $25 puts are $4 – so in that range and that would more than pay for the spread and then you can invest in rolling the long calls so, either way, it's a good position.

    I know it doesn't seem sexy but already the July $24s are $5.40 and the July $30s are $2.20 for net $3.20, which is up 0.60 (23%) in a day.  

    It's not just about being right or wrong.  What I liked about the trade was that, even if earnings were bad – I still like HRB for the long-term, so I could adjust the trade and get another chance at it down the road.  The short bet was a one-time thing where you HOPE they disappoint but, if they don't disappoint – what is your comfortable exit strategy?  

    You are never going to be right (or wrong) 100% of the time.  Most people are 55/45 (mostly wrong) and the best stock-pickers are thrilled with 60/40.  The rest is all about risk-management and having a good plan for what to do when you are wrong.  Even if you are only right 40% of the time, if your winners pay 2:1 and your keep your losses at 50% then 10 $100 bets yield: $200, $200, -$50, -$50, -$50, $200, -$50, $200, -$50, -$50 - and that's STILL net +$200.  THAT is the goal of investing – win more than you lose on each bet and THEN worry about improving your guesses!  

    Questions/Seer – Well that will be up to you.

    Butterfly/Options – Well I watch the net of the rolls and, sometimes they are favorable and sometimes not and I try to pick good spots in the ranges and take advantage of good prices on each end.  Once there's no premium in a short put or call – it's no longer working for you so it's a good time to do something – unless you think it's got value as protection, of course.  In general, I try not to make changes more than the usual monthly updates – one of the points I like to hammer home in the portfolios is NOT to constantly mess with positions.  If you have a balanced portfolio, the number of things that work out tend to outnumber the number of things that hurt you by leaving them alone over time.  

    What would I have done?  Well either next week or in a month I would have made the adjustments but, since I think we're going to correct, I'd probably wait until Jan to see where we are.  

    TEVA/Jabob – Doesn't look like there's a deal with AMZN.  

    CLF/Stock – Benefit from protectionism.

    Slowdown in China is spooking people but CLF could care less:

    That's what I like about them.  

    As a new trade, you can sell the 2020 $7 puts for $2.50 to net in for $4.50 and leave it at that or you can add 2x the 2020 $4 ($3.10)/7 ($1.95) bull call spreads at $1.15 for a net 0.20 credit on $8 worth of spreads that are $4 in the money so far (though, at $6, you'd have to give $1 back to the short puts and only make 300% if CLF stays flat).  

    HBI/Jeff – Well our trade last Tuesday was

    In the OOP let's:

    • Sell 15 HBI 2020 $20 puts for $3.50 ($5,250) 
    • Buy 25 HBI 2020 $18 calls for $4 ($10,000) 
    • Sell 25 HBI 2020 $23 calls for $2 ($5,000) 

    We did double that in the LTP and now the $20 puts are $3.10 ($4,650) and the $18 ($4.50)/23 ($2.40) bull call spread is $2.10 ($5,250) for net $600 which is up $850 (340%) in a week.  I think the puts were $3.40 by the time we got in but the spread was an easy fill at $2 but the point is there's no loss there and you can certainly keep it as we're going to go right back in and I'd still do this position since it's now more in the money and still about the same price with $12,000 more to gain.  

    Remember, we are cashing in our portfolios because they are there to TEACH people.  If you have positions you like, there's no need to get out of them if they are well-hedged.  We're expecting a 20% correction that might not even come but, rather than hassle with keep this and not this and jiggle around all our positions and hedges and make a huge mess – why not just cash out and start from scratch?

    It doesn't mean you have to – we're only going to go back into most of the positions we have now – only smaller as we're banking $2M in gains!  





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Zero Hedge

Visualizing U.S. Energy Consumption In One Chart

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Every year, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a federal research facility funded by the Department of Energy and UC Berkeley, puts out a fascinating Sankey diagram that shows the fate of all energy that gets generated and consumed in the United States in a given year.

Today’s visualization is the summary of energy consumption for 2017, but you can see previous years going all the way back to 2010 on their website.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Never Begin With the End in Mind

 

Never Begin With the End in Mind

Courtesy of 

The thing about biases is that they’re human, so they’re seen in every walk of life. In who we choose to be friends with, in what news we read, in investing, and in sports.

In Michael Lombardi’s new book Gridiron Genius, which I highly recommend, he talks about all of the biases ...



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Insider Scoop

Splunk's Beat-And-Raise Q1: The Sell-Side Reacts

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SPLK 7 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday Earnings Scheduled For May 24, 2018 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Second Day of Bullish Defense

Courtesy of Declan.

The market had initially reacted to Trump's decision to cancel his North Korean summit before coming to its senses and finishing where it left off yesterday.

For the Russell 2000 it was a bullish doji to follow the 'hammer'; those brave enough to buy the morning dip will be feeling confident as technicals remain bullish.

...

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Digital Currencies

How the US Government Could Effectively Use Crypto

The US government could start, or officially endorse an existing crytpo coin. What they would do is build a fee into the software protocol that went to a single address that they control. This is effectively a tax. The fee could be a transaction fee, a percentage of the next block award, or a combination of both. How this works is every single transaction that occurs everywhere wihtin the system, the fee scalped goes directly to this single address that is owned by the IRS, in this case, the "New-IRS." Forget postcards. We're down to a single dude in one office chair in front of one computer. Imagine that being the IRS, because that's where this is going. The consequences of this mechanism are dramatic. First off the IRS is now one guy. Granted, this guy controls the private key for the most valuable thing in the world. This key would be the single most important key right up there with the nuclear launch code, but the system would most definitely still work. More strikingly, the US...

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Biotech

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

In 2013, Kyoto University’s Shinya Yamanaka was awarded one of the first Breakthrough Prizes in Life Sciences for his discovery of “induced” stem cells that enabled researchers to convert adult cells back into stem cells.

The Breakthrough Prize is not to be sneezed at. Founded in 2013, the prize “honours transformative advances toward understanding living systems and extending human life.” It’s also the most financially attractive aw...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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