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  1. phil

    Retail investors scooped up shares at fast pace in November – TD Ameritrade

    • The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index surged more than 15% in November – the largest single-month increase ever.
    • "The retail investor has become a bit more of a believer,” Ameritrade's Joe Kinahan tells Bloomberg. "We don’t want people to get overzealous, if you will. This is controlled exuberance.”
    • Investor Movement Index

    Sell-side mostly looking for bounce in Toll Brothers

    • Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) tumbled more than 7% yesterday following an earnings miss, but the sell-side is mostly defending, with a number of price target hikes.
    • Wells Fargo ups to $54, KBW to $50, and Oppenheimer to $53. Toll closed last night at $46.93.
    • KeyBanc is an exception, downgrading to Sector Weight.
    • Speaking on the earnings call, CEO Douglas Yearley said the company hasn't seen a change in buyers' behavior from looming tax reform (which could did the value of the mortgage interest deduction, particularly for the high-end homes Toll mostly builds).
    • Checking guidance, Toll expects sees revenues rising as much as 29% in fiscal 2018, but the adjusted gross margin of 24% would be slightly down from this year.
    • Shares +0.25% premarket
    • Previously: Toll Brothers misses by $0.02, misses on revenue (Dec. 5)

    Crude oil settles at two-week low on surprise rise in U.S. fuel stocks

    • U.S. crude oil tumbled 2.9%, its biggest daily decline in more than two months, to settle at $55.96/bbl amid a big jump in U.S. inventories of refined fuel while U.S. crude production hit another weekly record.
    • The latest EIA weekly data showed U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 6.8M barrels and distillate inventories added 1.7M barrels, hitting prices of both crude and products in a market that analysts say was tilting bullish and vulnerable to a selloff.
    • The EIA also showed U.S. crude stocks fell by a greater than expected 5.6M barrels, but this in part was due to closure of the Keystone pipeline after a leak in mid-November, which cut flows to the Cushing, Okla., hub; the line has since reopened.
    • “A solid draw to crude inventories amid higher refinery runs – nearly 800K [bbl/day] above year-ago levels – [was] offset by a whopper of a build to gasoline inventories,” says Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData.
    • “The sentiment-driven support to crude oil prices has somewhat dissipated as market participants look beyond last week’s OPEC meeting,” says Abhishek Kumar at Interfax Energy’s Global Gas Analytics in London.

    Exxon is latest U.S. firm to supply newly free Mexico fuel market

    • Exxon Mobil (XOM -0.4%sends two cargoes to Mexico totaling 120K barrels of diesel and gasoline from its refinery in Beaumont, Tex., in its first fuel shipment to the country's newly free market.
    • XOM is moving cargoes along Kansas City Southern's (KSU -0.3%) rail network and plans to utilize the San Jose Iturbide terminal in Guanajuato state, which is being expanded, to bring in more supplies.
    • A growing number of foreign companies plan to invest in ports terminals, fuel storage facilities and other logistics infrastructure in order to compete with state-owned Pemex, the country's primary fuel vendor and distributor; Chevron last week said it would bring products from its California refining system to Mexico to supply its gas stations once the infrastructure becomes available.
    • First Solar (FSLR +4.6%) breaks out to fresh one-and-a-half-year highs in a strong response to yesterday's investor update, which included above consensus 2018 earnings guidance and the rollout of its long-awaited Series 6 panel.
    • Analysts weigh in with several price target raises, with at least five sell-side shops coming out with praise for FSLR.
    • Guggenheim hikes its FSLR target to $74 from $63, saying early success of Series 6 and favorable conditions in the marketplace encourage more ambitious expansion plans, and that the significant bookings help create visibility and improve conviction in its model estimates incrementally.
    • Needham says management's commitment to aggressive capacity expansion highlights the growing confidence in the large backlog of contracted business, and it believes FSLR's structural advantages position it to deliver solid top- and bottom-line growth beyond the 2018 transitional year (source:
    • Other price target increases: Baird to $69 from $53, Cowen to $77 from $66, Deutsche Bank to $75 from $65.
    • Steel names including U.S. Steel (X +6.4%) and AK Steel (AKS +5.5%) enjoy hefty gains following the Commerce Department's move to impose import duties on steel from Vietnam that originated in China.
    • While the market is rewarding the shares today, Axiom Capital's Gordon Johnson maintains the DoC's decision is "virtually irrelevant in terms of supply/demand."
    • Johnson says imports of cold rolled coil and hot-dip galvanizing steel have "virtually collapsed" since November of last year.
    • Vietnam suppliers say their product does not include Chinese components, and U.S. importers have continued to buy their steel, meaning that Johnson expects about half of the current imported Vietnamese steel gets banned incrementally.
    • Also: NUE +1.2%STLD +1.3%CMC +2.4%MT +1.9%CLF +1.3%WOR +0.4%RS +0.8%SLX +0.8%.

    Biotech drug pricing should not get substantially worse next year – Mizuho

    • In an interview with Bloomberg News, Mizuho Securities' Salim Syed says pricing in the biotech sector is "not getting any better" but "will not get substantially worse" in 2018. He says pricing and M&A activity will be key areas next year and beyond after a slowdown in deals this year.
    • Mr. Syed also says lower taxes for repatriated funds will be a positive, especially for cash-rich outfits like Amgen (AMGN -1.6%) and Gilead Sciences (GILD -0.3%) adding that bringing funds back to the U.S. should stoke deals.
    • Gilead (BUY/$83): A top pick for 2018 on bullish prospects for Yescarta. It could pursue deals but it would be potentially distracting from the Yescarta launch.
    • Amgen (BUY/$192): A "risky long" with attractive balance sheet and cash for acquisitions. Likes prospects for biosimilars and cholesterol med Repatha.
    • Biogen (BIIB -1.7%) (BUY/$400): A top pick for 2018 on bullish prospects for Alzheimer's candidate aducanumab. Sees a 10% boost to share price if it improves its messaging around Spinraza in Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
    • Celgene (CELG -0.8%) (BUY/$128): Needs to do deals to reignite share growth.
    • Separately, analyst Difei Yang likes Zogenix (ZGNX -4.4%) and ViewRay (VRAY -0.7%) adding that ZGNX, Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR -3.1%), Aerie Pharmaceuticals (AERI -2.5%), Revance Therapeutics (RVNC -2%) and Achaogen (AKAO -0.5%) are all potential acquisition targets.
    • Source: Bloomberg

    TiVo CEO buys $1M in shares

    • TiVo (NASDAQ:TIVO) is up 2.8% premarket in thin trade after an SEC filing shows its chief executive picking up almost a million dollars in shares.
    • President/CEO Enrique Rodriguez bought 55,974 shares across two transactions this week (54,054 at $17.8647, and 1,920 at $17.681), for a net outlay of $999,606.
    • Shares are down 23% YTD and have fallen 9% over the past couple of weeks.
    • B. Riley analyst Eric Wold says Cinemark's (NYSE:CNK) movie subscription service is a smart strategy on the financial front.
    • "Assuming a $10 to $11 average ticket for times when these Movie Club tickets would be used, Cinemark would still net $3 to $3.50 per ticket (after the studio’s cut of the full-priced ticket) as opposed to $4.50 to $5 without the Movie Club discount," observes Wold.
    • "And with the average moviegoers only purchasing 5.3 tickets per year, the opportunity to drive increased visitation of even just one to two more times per year could have a meaningfully positive impact on Cinemark’s overall domestic box office trends as well as the financial results of Cinemark and studios alike," he adds.
    • Previously: Cinemark unveils movie membership program (Dec. 5)
    • After saying the last one was the "last one," Disney (DIS -1.2%) CEO Bob Iger is likely to take another extension of his term as CEO, past 2019, The Wall Street Journal reports -- to facilitate integration of Fox (FOX +1.1%FOXA +1.2%) assets into the company assuming the multibillion-dollar deal is done.
    • Sources say the extended tenure is likely as the biggest acquisition in Disney's history reportedly heads for some kind of endgame. The assets said to be for sale at Fox have an enterprise value between $40B and more than $60B, depending on the observer.
    • Iger would extend by another 2-3 years if the deal is done, according to CNBC.
    • Previously: Disney's Parks chief emerging as CEO succession candidate (Nov. 27 2017)
    • T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) has announced a new $1.5B stock repurchase program to last through Dec. 31, 2018.
    • That can include purchases on the open market or privately (but not buys from the holdings of parent Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY)).
    • "We also understand that Deutsche Telekom AG, our majority stockholder, or its affiliates, is considering plans to purchase additional shares of our common stock," T-Mobile says.
    • Shares are down 0.8% premarket.
    • Recode reports that last month’s revelation that Google (GOOGGOOGL) was tracking Android users without permission came from rival Oracle (NYSE:ORCL).  
    • Recode’s sources say Oracle has mounted a campaign against Google for the past year as the companies fight in federal court.
    • Other actions Oracle has taken against Google: $8.8M in lobbying, seeking EU penalties, and anti-Google billboards in Tennessee.
    • The legal fight goes back to 2010 when Oracle accused Google of copying Java to create Android. The next oral arguments in the current appeal begin tomorrow.
    • In other Google legal news, a California court dismissed class action claims that accused the company of sex-based discrimination.
    • Judge Mary Wiss said the lawsuit wasn’t appropriate because it included all female Google employees. The plaintiffs have 30 days to file a complaint on behalf of only the women who experienced pay discrimination. 
    • Oracle shares are up 0.9%.
    • Google shares are up 1.4%.

    Apple suppliers drop after Largan warns of lower Dec. revenue

    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Largan Precision (OTC:LGANF) warns of lower December revenue compared to the previous month.
    • Largan had $187.2M in November sales, which was flat on October but up 8% on the year. 
    • The revenue drop comes in a period that’s traditionally strong for iPhone shipments. Largan supplies lenses and Face ID modules for the devices.
    • Taiwan’s Economic Daily News reports that Largan’s weak December comes from a drop in orders but didn’t specify from which customers. 
    • Yuanta Investment Consulting analyst Jeff Pu thinks Apple has cut back iPhone X orders from 69M to 63M for the November to March period after previously cutting iPhone 8 and 8 Plus for 1Q18 to 16M units, half of the current quarter.   
    • Apple suppliers moving on the news: Skyworks Solutions (SWKS -0.8%), Cirrus Logic (CRUS-1.6%), Broadcom (AVGO -1.2%), and Qorvo (QRVO -3.8%).  

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Phil's Favorites

Why politicians think they know better than scientists - and why that's so dangerous


Why politicians think they know better than scientists – and why that's so dangerous

Making a point at a Washington, D.C. protest in January. stephenmelkisethian/flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

Courtesy of Elizabeth Suhay, American University School of Public Affairs

One of the most unexpected political developments in recent months has been the political awakening of scientists in the United States.

A normally reticent group (at least when it comes to politics), scientists a...

more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Richmond Fed Survey Crashes By Most In 25 Years

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When hope dies... against expectations of a small rise from March to a 16 print, April came in at a disastrous -3 (the worst data since Sept 2016).

From record highs just a couple months ago, Richmond Fed manufacturing has crashed by the most in the survey's 25 year history into contraction...

It was a bloodbath below the surface too.

New orders collapsed to -9 from +17, order backlogs plunged to -4 from +10 and while wages a...

more from Tyler

Chart School

Semiconductors Approach 200-day MA; S&P Sleeper Play

Courtesy of Declan.

There were modest losses today with most indices holding the status quo from Friday. The one exception was the Semiconductor Index as it lost over 1% in a confirmed break of support. However, it does have the 200-day MA for a likely test tomorrow. All technicals are negative and relative performance took another step lower but no change there.

The Nasdaq broke bearish wedge support but is resting on a minor support level.  Today saw a new On-Balance-Volume 'sell' trigger but the 6,800/7,500 trading ra...

more from Chart School

Insider Scoop

32 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Limelight Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: LLNW) gained 21.71 percent to close at $4.99 on Friday following a first-quarter earnings beat. The company also raised its fiscal 2018 estimates.
  • Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) shares surged 17.17 percent to close at $7.78 after reporting strong Q1 results.
  • Farmers Capital Bank Corp (NASDAQ: FFKT) rose 16.45 percent to close at $49.20. WesBanco Inc (NASDAQ: ... more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tops $9,000 As NY Fed Says "Doesn't Pass Test Of What Currency Should Be"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is now up almost 40% from its lows right before Tax-Day, breaking back above $9,000 for the first time in over a month.

But while Bitcoin is rebounding, the rest of the cryto-space is soaring...with Ripple up 85% and Ethereum up lamost 65% in the last two weeks...

As it seems 'risk-on' is back in the cryptocurrency markets after a month or two of tax turmoil...

Additionally, Bloomberg ...

more from Bitcoin


Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...

more from Biotech


Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!


The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting


The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...

more from Kimble C.S.

Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...

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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

more from M.T.M.


Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

more from OpTrader


NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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