Comment by phil

View Single Comment

phil
December 8th, 2017 at 3:26 pm

Coal/Seer – They have 200 years worth of coal only the Earth wouldn't have 200 years left if they actually burned it.   

Jabob:



Charity Coins/BDC – Well why doesn't Citibank just get a printing press and make up some currency and circulate it under the same conditions?  Because it's illegal!  Just because it's "crypto-coins" and not paper money doesn't make it more legal.  At some point, this goes to the Supreme Court.

Congress's power to coin money is exclusive: under Article I, Section 10, the states are not permitted to "coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; [or] make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts…." Whereas the prohibitions on the states are clear and detailed, Congress's grant of power under the Coinage Clause is open-ended.

Nonetheless, certain elements are clear. First, Congress is granted the authority to "coin money," which authorizes Congress to coin money from precious metals such as gold and silver. Under the Articles of Confederation, the power to coin money was a concurrent power of Congress and the states. To create a more standardized monetary system and reduce the costs of running mints, the Constitution granted this power to Congress exclusively. The elimination of the states' power to coin money and the exclusive grant to Congress provoked controversy because the power to coin money was traditionally understood as a symbol of political sovereignty. Second, Congress is empowered to regulate the value of the coins struck domestically and to set the value of foreign coins. Under the Articles, Congress held the former power but not the latter. The Constitution gave both powers to Congress to encourage domestic and foreign commerce by preventing the states from attaching disparate valuations to circulating coins.

In a series of nineteenth-century cases dubbed The Legal Tender Cases, the Supreme Court addressed the federal government's power to order its bills of credit to be accepted as legal tender for all debts, public and private. In Hepburn v. Griswold (1870), the Court held it a violation of the Obligation of Contract Clause to retroactively alter contract terms by permitting payment in "greenbacks" of an obligation incurred in gold dollars. Greenbacks were not immediately redeemable in gold. Following a dramatic change in membership, however, just one year later in the Knox v. Lee (1871), the Court expressly overruled Hepburn and upheld the Legal Tender Act as applied to both prospective and retrospective debts. Pointing to the crisis occasioned by the Civil War, Knox upheld the power to declare paper money to be legal tender. In Julliard v. Greenman (1884), the Supreme Court extended Knox, upholding the validity of legal tender laws during peacetime. The Court held that the federal government's monetary power was inherent in its sovereignty; thus it need not be enumerated in the Constitution. Justice Stephen Field's blunt dissent declared, "If there be anything in the history of the Constitution which can be established with moral certainty, it is that the framers of that instrument intended to prohibit the issue of legal tender notes both by the general government and by the States; and thus prevent interference with the contracts of private parties." The recognition of Congress's expansive discretion on monetary issues in The Legal-Tender Cases was later used to support the federal government's invalidation of gold clauses in private contracts in the 1930s.

April/Latch – I think if we survive Q1 with the tax law changes and earnings, then we're probably going to have another good year so we only need the cover until April.



Pot prices/Naybob – Yes, people seem to forget it's a weed that can easily grow almost anywhere.  Thai Stick I remember being a premium brand, didn't know they used opium – good thing it was rare.  I always liked hash for brownies – that was fun unless you needed to straighten out – then you were screwed!  We were in Amsterdam once and bought some hash cookies and we ate one each and, 30 minutes later decided we got ripped off and went off for dinner, mindlessly munching on the cookie each we had left (because at least they tasted good and boy, we were hungry).  By the time we got to the restaurant – the first cookie hit and we realized we had tragically over-indulged.  Fortunately, it was Amsterdam and we had a really good dinner (it was a Chinese restaurant with a menus that had Dutch translations) – made fools of ourselves and survived the evening.  

VRX/Advill – I think, at this point, they have stabilized and they should be able to make money going forward on $8Bn in sales though debt is still about $30Bn and will hang over their heads for a long, long time.  Is that worth paying $7Bn for the company at $20?  Well, when they had $8M in sales in 2014 (before they went insane), they netted $1Bn but all of that $1Bn would go to just interest now.  It's not really for me as it has too much baggage but, if you are looking for a bull call spread just to take a gamble, they do have good premiums to sell and you can pick up the $15 ($8.30)/$22 ($5.60) bull call spread for $2.70 so you're $1 in the money to start and make 100% of the gains up to $22 for up to $7 back (up 159%).  That's a nice, low-risk way to play them.

USCR/QC – Especially if Trump clamps down on CX, who supply half the US concrete.  People think he will because their stock has tanked:



USCR is 1/10th the size of CX so they could exponentially benefit from less Mexican supply though already priced at 100x earnings by people who chased this story a year before you did.



I don't backing things just because of protectionism.  Even CLF, I like them anyway because they have a geographical advantage (lower shipping time/cost) to their competitor, the tariffs are a bonus.  In the case of USCR – I wouldn't touch them with a 10-foot pole except for the potential that Trump will unfairly crack down on their competition and, even then, they have to increase their business 3-4x to justify where they are now.  

You might want to consider someone like TRN, who have significant concrete business and would get a nice boost, but aren't overplayed already.  HDELY is good because they are in the Northeast, unlike most.  

2 hours before/Mr M – That's my favorite time to play the Futures.  You get to read the news before others start trading. 

Songs/Latch – Doesn't work that way, I have to be naturally inspired by the day's events.  Today, all I have is:

CCR/Latch – That's a good one if you believe in Trump.

Good futures advice MrM.  I'm sitting -$10K on /KCH8 even as we speak!  Need $126.50 to get even but I'm damned sure not increasing into the weekend.  



I started with a couple at $128.50 and now 8 with the lower average.  This is about where I'd DD to get to $125 avg but not with the weekend uncertainty.  As you can see, there never was a spike back up to allow me to lighten up on the way down.  

XBT/MrM – LOL, I wouldn't touch them for at least a few weeks.  Let other people learn harsh lessons first.