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  1. phil

    Indexes seem to be holding up into the close.  

    • Saturday, Dec. 9 – Tuesday, Dec. 12Annual Meeting of American Society of Hematology, Atlanta, GA.
    • Tuesday, Dec. 12Meeting of Orthopedic and Rehabilitation Devices Panel of the FDA's Medical Devices Advisory Committee. Agenda: Marketing application from Intrinsic Therapeutics seeking approval for the Barricaid Anular Closure Device to prevent reherniation of spinal disc.
    • Wednesday, Dec. 13 (10:00 am ET): Eli Lilly LLY 2018 guidance conference call.
    • Thursday, Dec. 14 (8:30 am ET): Express Scripts ESRX: 2018 guidance conference call.
    • Saturday, Dec. 16: FDA action date (PDUFA) on Seattle Genetics' marketing application seeking approval to use Adcetris (brentuximab vedotin) to treat cutaneous T-cell lymphoma. Look for a decision by Friday, December 15.

    GDPNow Q4 forecast dips to 2.9%

    • Plugging the data in from this morning's job report, the Atlanta Fed tracker now sees Q4 GDP growth of 2.9% vs. 3.2% earlier in the week, and as high as 4.5% in early November.
    • The Blue Chip consensus forecast remains at about 2.7%.
    • December Consumer Sentiment96.8 vs. 98.8 expected and 98.5 prior.
    • Current economic conditions 115.9 vs. 113.5 prior.
    • Index of consumer expectations 84.6 vs. 88.9 prior.

    Restaurant sales flat in November

    • U.S. restaurant comparable sales were flat in November to top the average pace seen in the sector for the first ten months of the year, according to data compiled by TDn2K.
    • Comparable traffic fell 2.50% during the month, but higher prices helped to offset the decline in guests.
    • "Higher check average increases are risky in a market with steadily decreasing traffic, but brands may be using price to support margins as they face rising labor and operating costs," observes TDn2K's Victor Fernandez.

    BP says 2017 one of its biggest years ever as it shifts focus to natural gas

    • The Zohr gas field offshore Egypt will come online by the end of December, marking the completion of what BP (BP +0.7%) calls one of its biggest years ever as it shifts from crude oil toward cleaner-burning gas projects as a result of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon tragedy.
    • BP routinely ran over budget and behind schedule on projects through 2010 but has since become a leader in keeping project costs below budget and finishing on time, says Dave O'Connor, head of BP's Global Projects Organization.
    • BP completed seven major projects this year, in Egypt, Trinidad and Tobago, Oman, Australia and in the U.K. North Sea; out of the seven, only the North Sea expansion is focused on crude oil.
    • O'Connor highlights the second phase of the Mad Dog development in the Gulf of Mexico as an example of BP's renewed focus on efficiency and cost savings; the project originally was estimated at $20B in 2012, but after cutting the bells and whistles instead of starting from scratch, the cost came in at $9B last year.
    • The total U.S. rig count increased by 2 to 931, rising for the fifth consecutive week, according to Baker Hughes' latest weekly survey.
    • The oil rig count rose by 2 to 751, while the gas rig count held steady at 180.
    • Metals stocks are mostly higher after China reported exports surged 12.3% in November from a year ago, more than double expectations, and imports climbed 17.7%; X +1.5%VALE +1.3%BHP +1.2%CLF +0.9%FCX +0.8%RIO flat in premarket trade.
    • China’s demand for commodities jumped, as the world’s largest consumer of raw materials saw higher imports of copper, crude oil and iron ore; shipments of copper soared 42%, iron ore jumped 19%, and imports of crude oil hit 9.04M bbl/day, their second highest recorded level ever.
    • Traders say the import data should help support commodity prices, which have been hit by concerns about slowing economic growth in China.
    • Jefferies analysts say sharp declines in Chinese finished steel exports show improved supply-side discipline while low inventories and strong prices and margins further highlight market tightness; the firm says ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) is its sector favorite.

    • Gold prices settled at their lowest level in nearly five months, as gains in the U.S. dollar and stocks and another surge this week for bitcoin dulled demand for the yellow metal.
    • February Comex gold slipped 0.4% to settle at $1,248.40/oz., the lowest since July 20, capping a 2.6% loss this week; the SPDR Gold Trust ETF and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF tumbled a respective 2.6% and 3.9% for the week.
    • Also, “the solid jobs report implies the Fed can remain on a path of higher interest rates well into 2018,” says Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist for U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “Higher rates and higher real rates, especially since wage inflation appears stable for now, are likely pressuring gold.”
    • “Gold’s role as a safe haven and a store of value is greatly diminished at this point,” says Barnabas Gan, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking, noting improved risk appetite after the postponing of a U.S. government shutdown and further progress in Brexit talks likely will continue to weigh on gold into next week.
    • Boeing (BA +0.7%) continues to grind higher, now up ~4.5% this week to a new 52-week high, as the stock is seen as a big winner in tax reform coming out of Congress.
    • On CNBC last night, CEO Dennis Muilenburg was bullish on tax reform, saying tax cuts would unleash pent-up economic energy and that Boeing would use the savings to further innovation.
    • "We're a big growth engine for the economy… driven by what we're seeing [in] commercial traffic growth around the world," Muilenburg says, planning to leverage the fact that "less than 20% of the world's population has ever taken a single flight, believe it or not. This year alone, 100M people in Asia will fly for the first time. We see traffic growing at 7% a year, it's going to outpace GDP and it's going to drive economic growth."
    • "The first person that sets foot on Mars will get there on a Boeing rocket," the CEO says of the company's next-generation rocket, which is being assembled and will see test flights in 2019.

    • CNBC sources say Elon Musk confirmed Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is working on its own AI hardware to reduce dependence on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).
    • Musk made the comments during a talk at a company party last night. His guest was Telsa’s VP of hardware Jim Keller, who was a chip architect at AMD. 
    • Tesla’s current Autopilot hardware system utilizes Nvidia graphics cards.   
    • Musk and Keller cited power and cost control and better efficiency among the benefits of using custom hardware.         
    • Previously: Bloomberg: Tesla replacing Nvidia with Intel for infotainment components (Sept. 26)
    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is casting a long shadow in a surprise appearance at the Los Angeles Auto Show, according to The Wall Street Journal's Dan Neil. He writes that Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY), Jaguar (NYSE:TTM) and BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) are just a few of the automakers rolling out their EV concepts to carve out space in the autonomous, connectivity, electrification evolution of the industry.
    • Neil sees Tesla as a survivor despite the slow pace of Model 3 production so far and widely-discussed financial pressures. His colorful explanation is below.
    • "The company’s prodigious burn rate, an estimated $8,000 per minute—have brought out the three-eyed ravens squawking auguries of doom. Oh, please. If Tesla were to run out of money today, by tomorrow Chinese and Arab investors would be dueling in the streets over it. The doors would still open. The Model 3 would still come out and, with the help of a half-million friends, would still hasten the rise of emission-free electrics, which was Mr. Musk’s objective all along. His ownership position may not make it to the promised land but the company will."
    • Ars Technica also walked away from the LA Auto Show with a favorable view of Tesla and the Model 3.
    • Recode sources say that SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBFOTCPK:SFTBY) could invest $300M in food delivery company DoorDash.
    • The companies are still in the talking stage so the deal could fall through or materialize with a different value. 
    • SoftBank’s investment could conflict with its pending investment in Uber (Private:UBER), which operates DoorDash competitor UberEats.  
    • Previously: SoftBank Vision Fund invests in Compass (Dec. 7)

    MoviePass helps theater chain to record attendance

    • Studio Movie Grill announces record attendance for 2017 after getting a jolt of traffic from MoviePass (NASDAQ:HMNY) subscribers.
    • The company says the MoviePass model has gone over well with value-seeking millennials and is a clean fit for its dine-in concept.
    • "We are in the business of creating the habit of movie going and we are excited to be an early adopter of MoviePass," says Studio Movie Grill CEO Brian Schultz.
    • Studio Movie Grill, which has has 29 locations across 9 states, is planning to expand in 2018.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Related stocks: AMCCNKRGCMCS.

    Digitimes: Apple suppliers shipments down on month, expect weak Dec.

    • Digitimes sources report that Largan wasn’t the only Apple (AAPL +0.4%) supplier that had weak shipments in November with a further drop expected this month.
    • Catcher technology, a chassis maker, had revenue drop 10.4% on the month in November. 
    • General Interface Solutions, which provides touch panels, had a 15.53% decline after expecting sales to grow into next year. 
    • The sources say Apple lowered its iPhone X component orders 30% below forecast in November and expect the same sequential percentage drop in Q1 due to seasonality and fewer working days in the quarter. But Q1 shipments could grow on the year. 
    • Apple suppliers that can move with news: Skyworks (SWKS -0.1%), Cirrus Logic (CRUS+0.7%), Qorvo (QRVO -0.4%), and Broadcom (AVGO -0.3%).  
    • Previously: Apple suppliers recover after Broadcom sales comments (Dec. 7)
    • Previously: Apple suppliers drop after Largan warns of lower Dec. revenue (Dec. 6)

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Zero Hedge

Apple Slides After Taiwan Semi Blames "Very High-End Smartphone" For Unexpectedly Poor Guidance

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In the latest confirmation that earnings from Apple are set to disappoint, perhaps bigly, overnight, the world's largest semiconductor producer, Taiwan Semiconductor, reported disappointing guidance, with management blaming a "very high-end smartphone" prompting renewed questions about the collapse in global iPhone demand.

The market wasted no time to price in the ongoing decline in demand for $1000+ iPhones and Taiwan Semi ADRs fell more than 5% in pre-market trading while Apple, Nvidia and AMD are all dow...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Thursday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard is set to speak in Washington at 8:00 a.m. ET.
  • Data on initial jobless claims for the latest week will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Philly Fed general conditions index for April is schedule for release at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Governor Randal Quarles will testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 9:30 a.m. ET.
  • The index of leading economic indicators for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Energy Information Administration’s weekly report on natural gas stocks in underground storage is schedule for release at 10:30 a.m. ET.
  • Data on money supply for the recent week will be released at 4:30 p.m.... more from Insider

Phil's Favorites

Our Strange Attraction To Self-Destructive Behaviors, Choices, & Incentives

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

The gravitational pull of self-destructive behaviors, choices and incentives is scale-invariant, meaning that we can discern the strange attraction to self-destruction in the entire scale of human experience, from individuals to families to groups to entire societies.

The proliferation of self-destructive behaviors, choices and incentives in our socio-economic system is profoundly troubling. Exhibit 1 is the opioid epidemic (chart below). How did we reach this level of individual and social self-destruction?

There are culprits aplenty: a "healthcare" (sickcare) system that incentivizes maximizing profits by whatever means are available (for example, claiming addictive medications aren't addictive); a system that encourages the consumption of c...

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Chart School

Short Opportunity Negated

Courtesy of Declan

Well, that didn't last long.

The shorting opportunities which offered themselves yesterday didn't last the morning; morning gaps held beyond the first half-hour of trading and bar a small sell-off into the close markets finished higher and above key moving averages and trading channels.

The Dow created a breakout which now offers a potential long play. Stops go on a loss of 24,600. Technicals finished with a new long 'buy' trigger in Stochastics.

The S&P finished above the 3-week ...

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Digital Currencies

Only 0.04% Of Taxpayers Are Reporting Any Bitcoin Gains To The IRS

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

With the US tax deadline just one day away, crypto investors who traded actively during the market's run-up and inevitable meltdown should have a lot of activity to report to the IRS.

But according to a survey conducted by Credit Karma, only a handful of people who have filed their taxes using Credit Karma's tools have reported bitcoin holdings or holdings of some other cryptocurrency - fewer than 100 out of a total of 250,000 filers, or a whopping 0.04% in total.

In all likelihood, this means that (tens of) thousands of bitcoin traders are refusing to pay the IRS, either betting on the anonymity of the blockchain to conceal th...

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Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!


The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting


The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...

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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...

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How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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