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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Global Stocks, S&P Futures Soar, Ignoring 10Y Tsy Yield Creeping Ever Higher

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Global stocks, bond yields and commodities all jumped higher on Thursday while the dollar plunge continued, as investors suddenly seemed to forget the inflation fears blamed for a brutal market sell-off in recent weeks.

Last week’s volocaust is a fading, distant memory, and this morning global stocks – albeit without China which is on weekly holiday for the Lunar New Year – continue their relentless surge with the Dow set to open back over 25,000, even as yields rise and the 10Y is fast approaching 3.00%, thanks to a plunging dollar which fell for a firth day, keeping financial condition well lubricated. As a result, global stocks and futures are a sea of green this morning despite growing inflationary noise in the background.

Commenting on the overnight price action, one major bank said it can be briefly summarized as: bearish USD, bearish fixed income, bullish equities, bullish oil. As the trader notes, “We’ve definitely been here before – in fact, it was the consensus trade for 2018 until the recent market rout questioned the move.” Therefore there’s certainly a sense of déjà vu as the paradoxical moves in markets continue at least until inflation fears hit the next tipping point and launch the next equity market selloff.

In the meantime, one can scratch their heads: the bank adds that “the bewildering nature of recent price action has become a somewhat familiar feature of markets lately.”

One needs just three charts to understand what is going on on most days: futures are up, as they are this morning…

… even if yields are sharply higher, which they also are as the 10Y rises above 2.93%…

… as long as the dollar is tumbling, and financial conditions are looser.

As Reuters notes, economists were struggling to explain the turnaround except for the argument that historically it’s not unusual for stocks and bond market borrowing costs to rise in tandem with a rapidly expanding economy.

Some just blamed the weather and time of year. They speculated that strong U.S. inflation data on Wednesday that many had predicted could reignite the rout was probably distorted. They also said the looming Chinese New Year may have caused Asian traders to square up.

Meanwhile, bond traders increased their expectations for the number of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes to four by the end of next year after yesterday’s blistering CPI report. The inflation figures gave rise to debate among investors and traders on the breakdown in correlations to interest rates, as currency investors focused instead on the U.S.’s twin deficits.

“For me it’s a clear indication that inflation is not as big a threat as people made it out to be over the past couple of weeks,” said Lukas Daalder, chief investment officer at Robeco in Rotterdam. “The trend behind the market is still very strongly pointed upwards. 2017 was a very momentum-driven market, and if that’s still the case, which after yesterday it appears to be, then we will probably see new highs before too long.”

Volatility shrank back rapidly too. The VIX index fell all the way back to 18, less than half the 50-point peak touched last week.

* * *

Whatever the reason, the animal spirits were back. However, should the dollar and yields rise at the same time, run.

For now, China is off to enjoy the Lunar New Year and welcome the Year of the Dog, and there’s another celebration in EM FX as the ZAR continues to revel in the resignation of Zuma.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index took its cue from a rally in the truncated Asian session, to advance for a second day – ignoring the growing, $22 billion Bridgewater short of European stocks – as traders assessed earnings from heavyweights including Nestle and Airbus while eyeing rising bond yields that may be approaching a critical level for the direction of equity markets.

As a result, the Stoxx 600 climbed 0.4%, heading for a weekly gain of ~2%. Airbus advanced 8.9% in the best performance among single stocks on the gauge after the planemaker struck an optimistic tone in its outlook for 2018, promising earnings growth of 20%. Nestle dropped 2.6% after it posted the weakest sales growth in more than 20 years.  Elsewhere, South African exposed Old Mutual (+3.8%) and Anglo American (+3.0%) lead the FTSE 100 as South Africa now eyes life-after Zuma with Ramaphosa now appointed as Preisdent. Miners occupy a bulk of the other outperformers in the UK amid movements in the commodity complex with Antofagasta (+2.9%) also lifted after winning approval for a USD 1.1bln revamp of its Los Pelambres copper mine.

In Asia, Australia’s ASX 200 (+1.2%) was positive with its biggest movers dictated by earnings releases and as commodity names were underpinned by strength in the complex. Elsewhere, Nikkei 225 (+1.5%) advanced and managed to ignore the latest plunge in the USDJPY, which took out downside stops after Finance Minister Taro Aso said the currency’s strength isn’t abrupt enough to require intervention– as well as a slump in machine orders, while Hang Seng (+1.6%) closed the session as the outperformer in a holiday-shortened session, before it joined mainland China for Lunar New Year celebrations.

In FX, it was all about the ongoing dollar weakness, which persisted pushing the Bloomberg Dollar Index down a fifth day.  The dollar tumbled though across the board, including to a 15-month low against the yen of 106.18 yen as worries about the U.S. government’s finances seemed to set again after a White House-led spending splurge and recent corporate tax cuts. That also marked a drop of 3.8 percent from its early February peak near 110.50 yen, while the euro and pound both climbed back above the $1.25 and $1.40 thresholds.

“The story I hear most frequently from people is it’s the re-emergence of the twin deficits,” said RBC Capital Markets head of currency strategy Adam Cole, in London, of the dollar’s persistent weakness. “There seem to be concerns on the U.S. fiscal position and what that implies for the current account.”

The EUR/USD climbed a fifth day, approaching Jan. 25 high of 1.2537, which was the highest since Dec. 2014, while GBP/USD sustains advance over 1.40 on reports of the EU’s softening Brexit stance, set for fourth daily rise. As noted above, the USD/JPY slipped; the yen earlier touched its strongest level since Nov. 2016 versus the dollar on comments from the finance minister dismissing the need for intervention. The South African rand was the biggest gainer versus the dollar among its major peers on news of Jacob Zuma’s resignation; the rand appreciated to its strongest level since Feb. 2015.

Looking at the ongoing Brexit drama, UK PM May is reportedly facing a crisis related to the Brexit border deal, after Northern Ireland power sharing discussions were said to have collapsed. Separately the Telegraph reported that the EU will demand the right to raid financial services firms in Britain after Brexit and hand its regulators sweeping new powers, as Brussels moves to shackle the City of London with red tape after the UK leaves the bloc. Finally, in some good news, the BBC reported that EU diplomats have removed a so-called “punishment clause” from a draft text of the arrangement for the Brexit transition period, the BBC understands. However, it was later reported that the EU denied this was the case…

In the commodities complex, WTI and Brent crude futures trade in close proximity to recent highs seen in the wake of yesterday’ssmaller than expected build in the DoEs and comments from Saudi with prices also supported by the broad softness in the USD. Inmetals, gold prices have also benefitted from the softer USD, although gains are likely capped by the broad-based risk sentiment inthe market. Elsewhere, copper prices have hit their highest level in 10 days amid this morning’s risk environment, while priceaction was relatively limited during Asia-Pac trade given the closure of the Shanghai Futures Exchange for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 2,718.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 377.54
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 1.4% to 176.14
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 1.3% to 578.63
  • Nikkei up 1.5% to 21,464.98
  • Topix up 1% to 1,719.27
  • Hang Seng Index up 2% to 31,115.43
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,199.16
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 34,273.84
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 5,908.99
  • Kospi up 1.1% to 2,421.83
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to 0.781%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.2492
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 1.795%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.52%
  • Brent futures up 0.2% to $64.49/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,354.33
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.4% to 88.76

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Cyril Ramaphosa faces a tough road ahead as South Africa’s new president after Jacob Zuma’s resignation late Wednesday ended nine years of his scandal-marred administration. Ramaphosa remains acting president until his expected election in parliament later Thursday
  • U.S. tax authorities have requested documents from lenders and investors in real estate projects managed by Jared Kushner’s family, according to a person familiar with the matter.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Aso said the yen’s recent move isn’t abrupt enough to warrant intervention causing the yen to climb
  • A report from Politico that the European Union is looking to ease Brexit transition conditions, helped support the pound
  • Merkel vows to ensure Germany maintains balanced budget
  • Japan’s Aso says yen strength isn’t abrupt enough now to intervene
  • Kuroda says BOJ will continue to take best policy for price target
  • Australia Jan jobs 16.0k vs 15.0k est; unempl. rate 5.5% vs 5.5% est
  • Singapore Jan exports -0.3% vs 4.2% est; y/y 13.0% vs 8.9% est

Asian stocks traded higher as the region received a tailwind from US where all major indices finished with firm gains and the DJIA posted its best 4-day performance in almost a decade. ASX 200 (+1.2%) was positive with its biggest movers dictated by earnings releases and as commodity names were underpinned by strength in the complex. Elsewhere, Nikkei 225 (+1.5%) advanced and managed to overlook a firmer JPY and slump in machine orders, while Hang Seng (+1.6%) closed the session as the outperformer in a holiday-shortened session, before it joined its mainland counterparts for Lunar New Year celebrations. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with early mild pressure seen amid the uptick in riskier assets, although this was later counterbalanced amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for 1yr-10yr JGBs totalling over JPY 1tln.

Top Asian News

  • Philippine Central Bank Cuts Reserve Ratio by 1 Point to 19%
  • Abe Said to Be Likely to Nominate BOJ Governor on Friday
  • IDG-Backed China Online Credit-Checking Firm Is Said to Plan IPO
  • Cathay Pacific Supplier Topcast Aviation Is Said to Pursue Sale

European bourses trade higher across the board (Eurostoxx 50 +0.6%) in a continuation of the sentiment seen yesterday on Wall Street and overnight in Asia-Pac trade. On a sector basis, consumer staples underperform following lacklustre earnings from Swiss-titan Nestle (-2.2%), with the index heavyweight subsequently leading the SMI to lag its peers in the region. Elsewhere, South African exposed Old Mutual (+3.8%) and Anglo American (+3.0%) lead the FTSE 100 as South Africa now eyes life-after Zuma with Ramaphosa now appointed as Preisdent. Miners occupy a bulk of the other outperformers in the UK amid movements in the commodity complex with Antofagasta (+2.9%) also lifted after winning approval for a USD 1.1bln revamp of its Los Pelambres copper mine. Elsewhere, Standard Life (-4.9%) sits at the bottom of the FSTE 100 after Scottish Widows and Lloyds sent notices to co. to terminate investment management relations. Finally, earnings dominate the state of play in the CAC with Airbus (+9.3%), Schneider Electric (+3.6%) and CapGemini (+2.5%) all lifted by encouraging earnings.

Top European news

  • Dalio Causes Stir With $18 Billion Surge in European Short Bets
  • Austrian Bitcoin Scam May Affect Over 10,000 Users, Presse Says
  • In the Age of Brexit, Events Manager RELX Opts for London Base

In FX, Japan’s Finance Minister Aso has given the green light for Jpy bulls to charge on, and 106.00 vs the Usd is now within striking distance given little in the way of technical support until 105.85 vs the latest 106.20 low. Moreover, all other G10 rivals are eyeing recent peaks vs the Greenback with Cable just eclipsing the 1.4067 level posted after the BoE’s hawkish policy guidance shift on February 8th, while Eur/Usd almost challenged Fib resistance at 1.2518 ahead of the 1.2537 year to date high before slipping back below 1.2500. Usd/Chf is toppy around the bottom of a 0.9300-0.9230 range, while Nzd/Usd has rebounded above the 0.7400 handle and Aud/Usd is over 0.7950 despite mixed jobs data overnight and ahead of RBA Governor Lowe orates later today. Usd/Cad relatively steady albeit sharply down from Wednesday’s post-US CPI data spike highs and sub-1.2500 amidst ongoing NAFTA uncertainty and awaiting a speech from BoC Deputy Governor Schembri. All this leaves the Dollar Index below 89.00 again and vulnerable against a deeper set-back towards 2018 lows under 88.50, especially as the Usd continues to suffer broader losses with the likes of Usd/Zar sliding towards 11.6400 in wake of the resignation of Zuma as SA  President with immediate effect.

In the commodities complex, WTI and Brent crude futures trade in close proximity to recent highs seen in the wake of yesterday’s smaller than expected build in the DoEs and comments from Saudi with prices also supported by the broad softness in the USD. In metals, gold prices have also benefitted from the softer USD, although gains are likely capped by the broad-based risk sentiment in the market. Elsewhere, copper prices have hit their highest level in 10 days amid this morning’s risk environment, while price action was relatively limited during Asia-Pac trade given the closure of the Shanghai Futures Exchange for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Looking at the day ahead, the January PPI and IP, February empire manufacturing, February Philly Fed PMI, February NAHB housing market index and the latest weekly initial jobless claims readings are all due in the US. In Europe Q4 employment data in France and the December trade balance for the Euro area are due. The ECB’s Mersch and Praet are also slated to speak at an event in Paris.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 18, prior 17.7
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 228,000, prior 221,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.93m, prior 1.92m
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1%; Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.6%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.0%, prior 2.3%
  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 21.6, prior 22.2
  • 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.9%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.25%, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 72, prior 72
  • 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $33.8b; Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $57.5b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Boxing Valentine’s Day. My wife went to bed at 7pm last night with the twins to desperately try to catch up on sleep while I watched a rampant Liverpool win 5-0 away from home in Europe on the telly, with Bloomberg TV on my iPad alongside me to catch up with the post CPI rally. A question for long time married readers though is when does romance come back into a marriage after having children?

Anyway yesterday was one of those days where having the most important data release ahead of time probably wouldn’t have helped you much. In fact it may have helped you lose money in risk. The well above expectations number for CPI was negative for bonds – as you would have expected – but equities rallied hard (S&P 500 +1.34%) after a large sell off in the minutes following the release (S&P futures slumped c.-1.8%). The price action yesterday perhaps tells us that the normalisation from last week’s vol shock is more powerful for markets for now than the data. However if this inflation trend holds (as has been and still is our expectation) we’re in for some real fun and games in markets in 2018 once the dust settles.

To be fair, weaker US retail sales (more details later) may have confused the story somewhat but it was all about inflation. For core, once we added in the extra decimal places the number came in at +0.349% putting clear air over the consensus estimate for just +0.2% and nearly rounding up to 0.4% MoM. In fact that was the largest monthly climb since March 2005 and kept the YoY steady at +1.8% (+1.7% expected). The three-month annualized rate also jumped to the highest since 2011 (+2.9%) and the six-month annualized rate also hit the highest since 2008 (+2.6%). The underlying components appeared to also affirm that inflation was relatively broad-based while there was a similar beat at the headline level (+0.5% mom vs. +0.3% expected).

Treasury yields marched higher with 10 year yields +7.3bp higher on the day to 2.903%, but c9bp up from just before the release. 2 and 30yr yields were up 6.1 and 5.1bps on the day. A reminder that yesterday we published a note (link) showing asset prices in the first and second half of the 1960s using our economists’ framework that there are big similarities between the inflection point on inflation in the 1960s and the current day.

In terms of US equities, sectors such as Banks (+2.55%), tech (+1.95%) and energy (+1.40%) led the rally. The VIX also swung c7pts intraday to close 5.7pts lower at 19.26. As we said earlier perhaps this current vol normalisation trend held sway yesterday but if inflation continues like this it feels impossible for us to imagine vol settling back down around 10 for a persistent period. We are likely to have some big trading days this year.

This morning in Asia, markets are extending on the positive US lead. The Nikkei (+1.21%) and Hang Seng (+1.97%) are up as we type, while the Chinese markets are now closed until the 21st for the lunar New Year holidays. After the bell in the US, Cisco’s share price jumped c7% after guiding to higher than expected sales for the current quarter and plans to boost its share buybacks by $25bn. Elsewhere, the YEN rose for the fourth straight day (+0.4%), partly helped by Japan’s Finance minister Aso prior comments where he noted “the current situation doesn’t warrant special intervention. The Yen isn’t rising or falling abruptly”.

Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. European bourses initially traded lower post the US CPI print, but recovered throughout the day to be up c1%, partly aided by sound corporate results and supportive GDP prints. The Stoxx 600 (+1.07%), DAX (+1.17%) and FTSE (+0.64%) were all up and only the energy sector was in the red within the Stoxx. The VSTOXX fell 20% to 20.71. Over in government bonds, 10y Bunds and Gilts yields rose 0.7bp and 2.1bp respectively, while peripherals partly recovered from the prior day losses with yields down 1-6bp. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index weakened for the third consecutive day (-0.65%), while both the Euro and Sterling gained c0.8%. Elsewhere, the South African Rand was up 2.1% following President Zuma’s resignation. In commodities, WTI oil rebounded 2.38% to $60.60/bbl, in part as the latest EIA report showed US crude stockpiles rose less than expected last week. Precious metals gained c1.6% (Gold +1.59%; Silver +1.67%) and other LME base metals increased as the USD continues to fall (Copper +2.50%; Zinc +2.80%; Aluminium +1.80%).

Away from the markets, President Trump said he supports a 25c per gallon increase in federal gasoline and diesel taxes to help pay for upgrading roads, bridges and other public works. So perhaps there is more potential to fund his $1.5bln infrastructure plans, although Republican Senator Grassley noted the tax hike was unlikely to come up for a vote in the Senate and that “he’ll never get it by (Senator) McConnell”.

Staying in the US, our economists have been highlighting the upside risks to their growth outlook for some time. Given the recent passage of a bipartisan budget agreement provides for c$300 billion in additional discretionary spending  over the next two years, they have now raised their 2018 real GDP growth forecast (Q4/Q4) to 2.9% (+0.3ppt) and the 2019 forecast rises to 2.5% (+0.4ppt). Following on, stronger growth should put further downward pressure on the unemployment rate, which they now expect will trough at 3.2% in 2019, about 1.5ppt below NAIRU. On rates, their views are unchanged and they continue to expect four rate hikes this year and three next year. But recent developments have tilted the balance of risks to the upside.

Now turning to some of the Brexit headlines. Foreign secretary Boris Johnson seemed to support the status quo during the Brexit transition period by noting “things will remain as they are”. However, he does make a case for a clean break with the EU – leaving the single market and customs union and pursuing flexibility for the UK to choose which EU rules it wants to keep post Brexit. Elsewhere, he noted “Theresa” was the right PM for the UK to lead Brexit talks while also indicating “let’s not go there” in terms of a potential second referendum on Brexit. On the other side, the EC’s  Juncker’s response was quite colourful, he noted some in British politics “are against the truth, pretending that I’m a stupid, stubborn federalist…that I’m in favour of the EU superstate”, but “I’m strictly against (a superstate)….we aren’t the United States of America, we are the EU…”.

In Germany, Ms Merkel reiterated that the “black zero” fiscal prudence is the trademark of the CDU and “it will remain so in the future”. She noted that “if the SPD occupy the Finance Ministry in the future, our budget lawmakers will have to be even more careful that they don’t pile on new debt”.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the core CPI for January was above market at 0.3% mom (vs. 0.2%) as discussed earlier. Price increases were well spread  across the core CPI, but part of the CPI gain was from a 1.7% monthly increase in apparel prices, the biggest increase since 1990. Notably, retail sales missed expectations. In the details, headline retail sales was -0.3% mom (vs. +0.2% expected). Ex auto and gas sales (-0.2% mom vs. +0.3%) and control group sales (0.0% mom vs. +0.4% expected) were also accompanied by downward revisions to December sales. The data certainly suggested a weaker looking consumption profile to the start the year and will likely cause the street to reassess growth forecasts the current quarter. Indeed the Atlanta Fed slashed their Q1 forecast to 3.25% from 4% but be slightly careful as their could have been some post hurricanes payback here. Elsewhere, December business inventories slightly beat at 0.4% mom (vs. 0.3% expected).

The Euro area’s 4Q GDP was in line at 0.6% qoq and 2.7% yoy. Across the countries, Germany’s 4Q GDP was also in line and solid at 0.6% qoq while Italy was slightly lower than expected at 0.3% qoq (vs. 0.4%). Elsewhere, the Euro area’s December IP was above market at 0.4% mom (vs. 0.1%), while Germany’s final reading of the January CPI was unrevised at 1.4% yoy. In Sweden the Riksbank left its policy rate at -0.5% and continued to forecast a gradual tightening from the second half of this year.

Looking at the day ahead, the January PPI and IP, February empire manufacturing, February Philly Fed PMI, February NAHB housing market index and the latest weekly initial jobless claims readings are all due in the US. In Europe Q4 employment data in France and the December trade balance for the Euro area are due. The ECB’s Mersch and Praet are also slated to speak at an event in Paris. Nestle will report earnings.

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