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  1. phil

    Speaking of HMNY and adjustments.  If we're not going to capitulate then we have to adjust:

    In the OOP:

    Long Call 2020 17-JAN 2.50 CALL [HMNY @ $1.57 $-0.54] 25 2/13/2018 (619) $7,750 $3.10 $-2.88 n/a     $0.23 $-0.33 $-7,188 -92.7% $563
    Short Call 2020 17-JAN 7.50 CALL [HMNY @ $1.57 $-0.54] -25 2/13/2018 (619) $-2,625 $1.05 $-0.95     $0.10 $-0.10 $2,375 90.5% $-250
    Short Put 2020 17-JAN 5.00 PUT [HMNY @ $1.57 $-0.54] -15 2/13/2018 (619) $-3,900 $2.60 $1.30     $3.90 $0.21 $-1,950 -50.0% $-5,850
    • We're in for net $1,225 and the 15 2020 $5 puts at $3.90 ($5,850) can be rolled to 35 2020 $2.50 puts at $1.60 ($5,600) for net $250 and very little additional commitment to own the stock.  
    • The 2020 $2.50 calls @ 0.28 can be rolled to the 2020 $1 calls at 0.58 for 0.30 – that's a no-brainer for net $750
    • We can buy back the short $7.50 calls for 0.10 ($250) and we'll wait and see if we get a bounce.  We could sell the $5s to pay for more of the roll if we want to but, for 0.28, I'd rather take the chance of getting a better price.  

    In the LTP, we will make the same roll with our 50 $2.50 calls and we have no short calls.  We will also roll our 20 short 2020 $7.50 puts ($6.10) to 50 short $2.50 puts at $1.65, which is effectively $4.12 – we don't want to over-commit, so we'll take the small loss for now.

    Dilluted/Albo – We expected that to happen from day one.  This is just that shoe dropping.  

    LB/JMD – That is NOT how you lay out a position (see above).  Anyway, given very little information, I'd just roll the Jan $32.50 calls ($4.50) to the 2020 $30 calls ($6.90) for net $2.50 and you're getting the extra year for free.  The put target is fine and, when they start to recover, you can begin selling 10 (1/4) of the shorter-term calls.  Even now, June $35s are $1.35 so $1,350 for 38 days out of 619 you have to sell means you can collect over a dozen of those short sales for $16,200 while you wait.  

    As usual, the question is, why would you not be selling a few short calls almost all the time?

    HMNY/Lala – Yes, VZ owns 10% and will likely buy more.  People act as if VZ can't read books or maybe that they delivered a real asset (MoviePhone) in exchange for stock and warrants in something that is likely to implode the next Q – Because they are that stupid, I guess…  Also, HMNY themselves just spent their cash doubling up their ownership stake in MoviePass.  If anything, I think they may just be using this to play hardball with debt holders to restructure (Trump does that all the time).

    Iran/StJ – I think it's totally baked in at $70 and we'll see $65 if it turns out we're working something out with Iran.  

    Oil/Den – I agree.  Trump wants the Nobel Prize he needs to be diplomatic.  





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Zero Hedge

JCPenney Crashes After CEO Unexpectedly Quits To Join Lowe's

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In the great race between JCPenney and Sears of which retailer will be the world's slowest melting icecube, and who will file Chapter 11 (or 7) first, today the former took a decisive lead when JC Penney’s CEO Marvin Ellison unexpectedly announced he is leaving the near-insolvent department store operator to join home improvement retailer Lowe’s.

The shocking announcement came less than 3 years after Ellison took the top job at JC Penney, following an activist attempt by Bill Ackman to "fix" JCPenney ended in disaster.

The ...



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Phil's Favorites

Flat Earthers vs climate change sceptics: why conspiracy theorists keep contradicting each other

 

Flat Earthers vs climate change sceptics: why conspiracy theorists keep contradicting each other

Would a flat Earth suffer from climate change? Shutterstock

Courtesy of Gareth Dorrian, Nottingham Trent University and ...



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Chart School

Narrow Trading Ranges Set Up New Breakout Opportunities

Courtesy of Declan.

The past few days have seen markets shape narrow mini-trading ranges, each following breakouts from larger consolidations. Large Caps show this best

The S&P cleared a dual 4-month and 6-week consolidation before shaping the past 8-day 'flag'. Look for a break of 2,740 and a push to challenge the next swing high at 2,800 - although a test of this should be enough to go on and challenge all-time highs.


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Biotech

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Could this be the year for a Canadian Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

In 2013, Kyoto University’s Shinya Yamanaka was awarded one of the first Breakthrough Prizes in Life Sciences for his discovery of “induced” stem cells that enabled researchers to convert adult cells back into stem cells.

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8 Stocks Moving In Monday's After-Hours Session

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related PTX Benzinga's Daily Biotech Pulse: FDA Panel Nod For Akcea, Synergy's Revenue Miss, FDA Warns E-Liquid Makers Again 18 Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session Related 36 Biggest Movers From Friday ...

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Digital Currencies

5 Factors That Drive Bitcoin's Ups & Downs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Kayla Matthews via Hackernoon.com

The price of Bitcoin has been wildly volatile. From November to December 2017, it increased by 223 percent. It fell by 59 percent between January and February 2018, increased by 64 percent from February to March and then dropped again during March by 40 percent.

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Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

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Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

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The tricks propagandists use to beat science

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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