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Dow Clings To Longest Win Streak In 8 Months; Dollar & Bond Yields Rise

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just when you thought the China trade-war was easing…

The Dow is up 8 days in a row – longest streak in 8 months… BUT look where the Dow stalled today – at its 50% retrace from the Feb tumble…

Russell 2000 ripped up to test its all-time closing high (1615.52), then tumbled back into the red…

And a weak close spoiled the party….

Wondering what sparked the selling at the close? Simple…

Gartman: "we’ve no choice but to err quietly bullish of shares generally."

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 14, 2018

VIX bounced after pushing down to a 12 handle…

Tech stocks led the way early helped by NXP's surge after hope that Trump's backing down on ZTE opened the door for QCOM's acquisition…

FANG pumped and dumped for the 3rd day in a row…

Tesla tumbled 3% on the day…

Treasury yields were marginally higher on the day… (chatter of a lot of IG issuance suggested that rate-locks were responsible for some of the rise in yields)…

10Y remains below 3.00%…

The Dollar Index traded in a very narrow band all day, slightly lower overnight and then gaining strength through the US session and rising a little after Wilbur Ross comments in the afternoon…

Meanwhile, Argentina's Peso crashed again…holding at 25.00 where BCRA said it would buy $5bn in pesos.

And its default risk exploded higher… as its Century bond yields hit a record high at 8.45.

But we note that EM FX Carry broke its uptrend…

As Nedbank noted, the carry index is an important “canary” to monitor. The index has broken out of the bull trend at 260 and has rallied from the 255 neckline on Friday to test 260 from below. The next few days will be important, as a consolidation below 260 would confirm a major reversal. A break below the neckline at 255 and below the wave-A high at 252 would project substantial downside (to below the (red) wave-C low of early 2016). The MACD has also confirmed the break out of the bull trend.

Additionally, EM bond yields are spiking… (Dollar and local currency debt costs are soaring)

As Blockchain Week starts, crypto was bid today with Litecoin best since Friday's close…

WTI managed to hold on to gains despite the dollar strength but PMs and copper slipped during the US day session…

Finally, the market seems to have forgotten about risk again…

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch GFSI Market Risk indicator, which hasn’t posted a weekly gain since March and fell to its lowest level since Jan. 22, is at a point indicating there is less stress than normal.


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