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  1. phil

    Party poopers:

    High global corporate debt load sets stage for defaults: Moody's

    • A record number of highly leveraged non-financial companies worldwide likely will lead to a wave of defaults when the next period of broad economic stress occurs, according to a new report from Moody's Investors Service.
    • Even though the speculative-grade default rate remains low now, the non-financial corporate debt burden is now higher than the peak before the 2008-'09 financial crisis.
    • Companies with speculative-grade credit ratings now account for about 60% of all non-financial companies, Moody's says. Meanwhile, a majority of investment-grade companies are rated Baa, the lowest rung that's still considered investment grade.
    • The opportunity to borrow at low cost for mergers and acquisitions and to return capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases has proved irresistible for some investment-grade firms, leading some to adopt financial policy objectives that have led to lower ratings," says Mariarosa Verde, senior credit officer and author of the report.
    • Speculative-grade companies have about $3.7 trillion in rated debt outstanding, with B1 or lower rated debt accounting for about $2 trillion of this total, according to the credit ratings company.
    • Source: Press release.

    Japan's 2017 external assets fall, still biggest creditor nation

    • Japan's net external assets fell for a third straight year in 2017 to ¥328T as rises in gross overseas debt outpaced asset gains, though the country remained the biggest creditor nation for the 27th straight year.
    • Japan's gross external assets rose 2.7 percent to a record ¥1,012T as the increase in Japanese direct investment overseas and foreign stock investment more than offset drops in the appraised yen value of foreign currency-denominated assets.
    • The external debt grew 5.2% to ¥684T due to increased acquisitions of Japanese bonds by foreign investors and rises in Japanese share prices

    Brazil authorizes military to clear trucker protest; shares extend losses

    • Brazil's Pres. Temer has ordered the army to clear highways clogged by the continuing truckers strike that has disrupted food and fuel supplies throughout the country.
    • The government announced last night that it had reached a 15-day truce with the truckers in exchange for the elimination of a federal fuel tax and a diesel price freeze for at least 30 days, but Temer said a "radical minority" of truckers had not returned to work, prompting his decision.
    • No trucks reportedly have been able to enter the Santos port, halting soy exports, meat group ABPA said 152 poultry and pork processing plants had indefinitely suspended production, and gas stations ran out of fuel across the country.
    • Among major Brazilian shares in U.S. trading: CIG -3.8%VALE -3%BBD -2.9%ITUB-1.9%BSBR -1.7%EBR -1.6%PBR -1.4%VIV -0.5%.

    Total U.S. rig count surges by 13; oil rigs add 15 to highest since March 2015

    • The total U.S. rig count surges by 13 to 1,059 after gaining just one a week ago, according to the latest weekly survey from Baker Hughes.
    • Oil rigs jumped by 15 to 859, the highest since March 2015, while gas rigs fell by 2 to 198 and two rigs remained classified as miscellaneous.
    • Crude oil prices have been tanking today as Saudi Arabia and Russia appear to near an agreement to increase production; WTI now -4.2% to $67.74/bbl.

    Judge wants more info from big oil companies in climate change lawsuits

    • A federal judge yesterday said he needed more information before deciding whether to dismiss lawsuits by the cities of San Francisco and Oakland alleging that Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B), BP and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) should pay to protect residents from the impacts of climate change.
    • The judge also wants the companies to produce additional material backing up claims that they should not be a part of the case because the court lacked jurisdiction over them.
    • The judge cited the beneficial role oil and gas production had played in the development of the U.S. but also said he remained open to the idea that some damages may have to be paid considering the potential harm of climate change.

    uters poll: Near one-in-three chance of U.S. recession in next two years

    • Reuters poll of economists expects nearly a one-in-three chance of a U.S. recession in the next two years citing concerns about an already-old business cycle, as well as rising interest rates and barriers to trade.
    • The U.S. economy is expected to average 2.8% in 2018, 2.5% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020.
    • When asked about the likelihood of a U.S. recession over the next two year, the probability doubled to 31.0% with the most pessimistic call at 70%.
    • "The risk of a recession really picks up after a year, or sometime in 2020 because that is when you start to see the fiscal stimulus start to fade," said Joseph Song, senior U.S. economist at BofAML.

    GDPNow trims Q2 growth view on weaker existing-home sales

    • The Atlanta Fed tracker now sees Q2 real GDP growth at 4.0%, down from 4.1% on May 16.
    • The model cut Q2 real residential investment growth estimate to 1.1% from 5.4% after Thursday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors.
    • Previously: Existing home sales weaken in April (May 24)





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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

The Bulls Continue To Bet On The Fed

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Over the last several weeks, we have been discussing the potential for a market correction simply due to divergences in the technical indicators which suggested near-term market risk outweighed the reward. As is generally the case, bonds have been warning the bullish bias of equity investors was likely misplaced. I have updated last week’s chart for reference.

The increase in risks has had us rotating exposure in our portfolios to a more defensive tilt. We previously trimmed back our overweight exposure to Technology, Then, two weeks ago, we noted...



more from Tyler

Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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