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  1. phil

    Party poopers:

    High global corporate debt load sets stage for defaults: Moody's

    • A record number of highly leveraged non-financial companies worldwide likely will lead to a wave of defaults when the next period of broad economic stress occurs, according to a new report from Moody's Investors Service.
    • Even though the speculative-grade default rate remains low now, the non-financial corporate debt burden is now higher than the peak before the 2008-'09 financial crisis.
    • Companies with speculative-grade credit ratings now account for about 60% of all non-financial companies, Moody's says. Meanwhile, a majority of investment-grade companies are rated Baa, the lowest rung that's still considered investment grade.
    • The opportunity to borrow at low cost for mergers and acquisitions and to return capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases has proved irresistible for some investment-grade firms, leading some to adopt financial policy objectives that have led to lower ratings," says Mariarosa Verde, senior credit officer and author of the report.
    • Speculative-grade companies have about $3.7 trillion in rated debt outstanding, with B1 or lower rated debt accounting for about $2 trillion of this total, according to the credit ratings company.
    • Source: Press release.

    Japan's 2017 external assets fall, still biggest creditor nation

    • Japan's net external assets fell for a third straight year in 2017 to ¥328T as rises in gross overseas debt outpaced asset gains, though the country remained the biggest creditor nation for the 27th straight year.
    • Japan's gross external assets rose 2.7 percent to a record ¥1,012T as the increase in Japanese direct investment overseas and foreign stock investment more than offset drops in the appraised yen value of foreign currency-denominated assets.
    • The external debt grew 5.2% to ¥684T due to increased acquisitions of Japanese bonds by foreign investors and rises in Japanese share prices

    Brazil authorizes military to clear trucker protest; shares extend losses

    • Brazil's Pres. Temer has ordered the army to clear highways clogged by the continuing truckers strike that has disrupted food and fuel supplies throughout the country.
    • The government announced last night that it had reached a 15-day truce with the truckers in exchange for the elimination of a federal fuel tax and a diesel price freeze for at least 30 days, but Temer said a "radical minority" of truckers had not returned to work, prompting his decision.
    • No trucks reportedly have been able to enter the Santos port, halting soy exports, meat group ABPA said 152 poultry and pork processing plants had indefinitely suspended production, and gas stations ran out of fuel across the country.
    • Among major Brazilian shares in U.S. trading: CIG -3.8%VALE -3%BBD -2.9%ITUB-1.9%BSBR -1.7%EBR -1.6%PBR -1.4%VIV -0.5%.

    Total U.S. rig count surges by 13; oil rigs add 15 to highest since March 2015

    • The total U.S. rig count surges by 13 to 1,059 after gaining just one a week ago, according to the latest weekly survey from Baker Hughes.
    • Oil rigs jumped by 15 to 859, the highest since March 2015, while gas rigs fell by 2 to 198 and two rigs remained classified as miscellaneous.
    • Crude oil prices have been tanking today as Saudi Arabia and Russia appear to near an agreement to increase production; WTI now -4.2% to $67.74/bbl.

    Judge wants more info from big oil companies in climate change lawsuits

    • A federal judge yesterday said he needed more information before deciding whether to dismiss lawsuits by the cities of San Francisco and Oakland alleging that Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B), BP and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) should pay to protect residents from the impacts of climate change.
    • The judge also wants the companies to produce additional material backing up claims that they should not be a part of the case because the court lacked jurisdiction over them.
    • The judge cited the beneficial role oil and gas production had played in the development of the U.S. but also said he remained open to the idea that some damages may have to be paid considering the potential harm of climate change.

    uters poll: Near one-in-three chance of U.S. recession in next two years

    • Reuters poll of economists expects nearly a one-in-three chance of a U.S. recession in the next two years citing concerns about an already-old business cycle, as well as rising interest rates and barriers to trade.
    • The U.S. economy is expected to average 2.8% in 2018, 2.5% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020.
    • When asked about the likelihood of a U.S. recession over the next two year, the probability doubled to 31.0% with the most pessimistic call at 70%.
    • "The risk of a recession really picks up after a year, or sometime in 2020 because that is when you start to see the fiscal stimulus start to fade," said Joseph Song, senior U.S. economist at BofAML.

    GDPNow trims Q2 growth view on weaker existing-home sales

    • The Atlanta Fed tracker now sees Q2 real GDP growth at 4.0%, down from 4.1% on May 16.
    • The model cut Q2 real residential investment growth estimate to 1.1% from 5.4% after Thursday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors.
    • Previously: Existing home sales weaken in April (May 24)





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Zero Hedge

Strzok Stripped Of Security Clearance By FBI

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

FBI special agent Peter Strzok has been stripped of his security clearance, days after he was physically escorted out of his FBI office, said Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

Speaking with radio host Howie Carr and first reported by Chuck Ross of the Daily Caller, Sessi...



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Chart School

Large Caps Feel the Heat as Semiconductors Struggle

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday, Small Caps led the rally as Large Caps lost ground. Today, those same weak Large Caps took another hit and dragged Tech indices with them.  Small Caps also suffered but they have plenty of wiggle room before they hit trouble.

The Dow sell-off didn't stop at its 50-day MA and is now on course to test its 200-day MA. Technicals, aside from Stochastics, are bearish.


Of greater concern was the hit to the Semiconductor Index. The attempt to hold 1,393 support was swiftly ...

more from Chart School

Phil's Favorites

Opioids don't have to be addictive - the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

 

Opioids don't have to be addictive – the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Tao Che, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill

The problem with opioids is that they kill pain – and people. In the past three years, more than 125,000 persons died from an opioid overdose – an average of 115 people per day – exceeding the number killed in car accidents and from gunshots during the same period.

America desperately needs safer an...



more from Ilene

Insider Scoop

Micron's Latest Earnings Call Was A 'Body Blow To The Bears': Analysts Weigh In

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related MU Rosenblatt Securities: Micron's Q3 Shows 'Near-Flawless' Execution Investors Appear To Like Small Cap...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

BIS Blasts Cryptos In Special Report: "Beyond The Hype"

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

The BIS blasts cryptos over scaling issues, energy, and trust. The BIS is correct. Cryptos are fatally flawed as money.

A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) report examines cryptocurrencies in depth. The study, called "Looking Beyond the Hype" investigates whether cryptocurrencies could play any role as money.

Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Bitcoin Exchange guide all have articles on the report but not one of the bothered to link to it.

After a bit of digging, I found the crypto report is part of an upcoming BIS annual report. The BIS pre-released the crypto report today (as chapter 5).

Here's a l...



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Biotech

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

By agsandrew/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of David E. Olson, University of California, Davis

It seems that psychedelics do more than simply alter perception. According to the latest research from my colleagues and me, they change the structures of neurons th...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



more from Kimble C.S.

Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>