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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Italian Banks, Bonds Crash As Di Maio Calls For Protests Against “The Arrogance Of Institutions”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Five Star leader Luigi Di Maio addressed the Italian nation on  a live Facebook feed this afternoon calling for them to mobilize against the institution represented by President Mattarella and demanding a new election as soon as possible.

“We can not stand watching, we must react immediately firmly. Today he will hang an Italian flag out the window and ask you to do the same. We claim the pride of being Italian…”

“There are tons of lies. I have said throughout the electoral campaign that we do not want to leave the euro. Savona would not take us out of the euro, he would have asserted Italy’s interests in the EU headquarters “.

“On June 2nd I invite everyone to come to Rome for a great demonstration.”

Yesterday – with the “no” of the Quirinale to the binding of Lega and M5s on the name of Sardinian economist Paolo Savona – “was the darkest night of democracy”, he added.

“We ask to go to the vote as soon as possible. Even in August? As soon as possible”, he clarified at the end of the meeting in the Chamber with Matteo Salvini.

“We are totally convinced to carry on” the impeachment.

“President Mattarella has decided to entrust the country to a technician in the mountains.”

“It is an ignoble act not to have allowed” the birth of the government governed by M5s and Lega.

“I was a deep admirer of the Democratic Party and I am really disappointed. Some of Mattarella’s advisors should be put on trial, but there is no such institution,” he adds.

“The president has shown that he is not an impartial guarantor for our highest democratic institutions and can no longer represent us .”

“For this reason I asked the more than 160 mayors of the Lega in Lombardy to remove the photo of Mattarella from their offices.

For those who have not been paying attention, The Associated Press offers a quick 4 point explanation of Italy’s political pendemonium.

The Italian president’s decisions to quash a proposed populist coalition and ask economist Carlo Cottarelli to assemble a politically neutral government sets up the steps to an early election that could have Italy’s voters going to the polls for the second time this year.

Italy is no stranger to chaotic politics, government crises and revolving-door executives. But recent developments were remarkable even by Italian standards.

Here’s a look at how Italy got to this point, and what could come next:

1. THE RUN-UP

A national election held March 4 produced a hung parliament. The anti-immigrant, right-wing League and the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement eventually set aside populist rivalries to draft a coalition platform, which included plans for a flat-tax, rolling pack pension reforms and government subsidies to the unemployed.

On Sunday night, President Sergio Mattarella ended plans to form Western Europe’s first populist government by vetoing their euroskeptic pick for economy minister. The president argued that Italy could not be perceived as entertaining an exit from the euro.

When the League refused to budge on having Paolo Savona as economy minister, Mattarella stuck to his constitutional prerogative to veto Cabinet ministers, and the populists were foiled in their quest to govern Italy. Mattarella then asked Cottarelli to set up a non-political government to lead the country to another election.

2. COTTARELLI’S CABINET

Cottarelli, a former International Monetary Fund official, promised to quickly assemble a Cabinet. Once Mattarella approves the proposed ministers, the new government can be sworn in within a day, or even hours.

The premier-designate pledged that his “neutral” government would guarantee “prudent” management of Italy’s public debt, the second highest in Europe after Greece.

While vowing to press the European Union to respond to concerns generating discontent at home, Cottarelli stressed that Italy’s “role in the union is essential, as is our continued participation in the eurozone.”

3. PARLIAMENT’S ROLE

After being sworn in, every new government in Italy faces a mandatory confidence vote in each chamber of Parliament. The populists, who together account for a little more than half the seats in the legislature, have already given Cottarelli the thumbs down.

Should the government lose the confidence votes, Cottarelli said a new election would be scheduled as soon as “after August.” His government would then stay on in a caretaker role until the election.

Should his government pull off the confidence wins, Cottarelli said he would lead Italy through the end of the year to pass next year’s budget, after which the president would send Parliament packing and the election would be held in early 2019.

4. CAMPAIGN ALREADY OPEN

The 5-Stars and League responded to Mattarella’s veto with a chorus of criticism that Italy had ceded its sovereignty to the European Union and international financial markets.

Essentially, campaigning for the next election is up and running regardless of when the voting is done, promising a heavy dose of euro-skepticism and “Italians First” slogans, especially from the League.

Nicola Nobile, lead economist at Oxford Economics, predicted the “the next elections could become a de facto referendum on Italy remaining in the eurozone.”

In fact, you know it’s bad when Paul Krugman expresses his disappointment at the establishment’s actions…

This is really awful: you don’t have to like the populist parties who won a clear electoral mandate to be appalled at the attempt to exclude them from power because they want a eurosceptic finance minister 1/ https://t.co/D40ipG12nQ

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) May 28, 2018

Di Maio’s anti-establishment calls for a demonstration in Rome on June 2nd and demands for an election as soon as possible have sparked further downside in Italian capital markets…

Italian risk premia across the entire curve are exploding…

2Y Yields at the highest since May 2014; 10y yields climbed above 2.70% for the first time since June 2015… and the BTP-Bund 10y yield spread 231 bps, widest since 2013

Plunging bank stocks – with their massive sovereign debt holdings – into a bear market

And in case you were wondering, investors shouldn’t “buy the dips” in Italian stocks after the market plummeted on the country’s political turbulence, Societe Generale strategists including Roland Kaloyan and Charles de Boissezon write in note.

  • International investors will stay on the sidelines for now given lack of visibility in coming months, particularly if new elections are in the pipeline

  • Expects higher cost of debt for Italian companies: SocGen says Italy’s credit rating downgrade is highly probable by the next review date on Sept. 7, but most likely in the next few weeks; sovereign downgrade could potentially trigger downgrades of some Italian corporates

And Italian redenomination risk soaring…

59-year old Rome resident, Nuzzi Luciana, summed up how many Italians feel…

“I think Italians had expressed themselves and what happened seems to be wanting to cancel the sign of this expression, so, even if I don’t really know this person (Cottarelli), we are left with a bitter taste here.”

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