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  1. phil

    Nothing too exciting in the Webinar but we will have to adjust our hedges.  Notably, we need to dump DXD July $8 calls, last at 0.60 but I'm asking 0.70 (need a Dow dip) and then we'll transfer to new DXDs in the STP.

    IQ/Rookie – Where were you?

    Submitted on 2018/05/23 at 10:38 am

    IQ/Learner – $16Bn while losing $1Bn a year almost makes NFLX look attractive at $144Bn while making $500M.  NFLX has $12Bn in sales, IQ about $4Bn so if IQ made $12Bn, I bet they'd be profitable too but I doubt they are getting $10/month from Chinese people though I'm sure they can get content much cheaper….

    NFLX was doing $4Bn in 2013 and made $11M though.  IQ just IPO'd last month at $17 and already $23 after collecting $2.3Bn, which funds them for a couple of years.  They only have 60M subscribers out of 1.4Bn but, of course, that's probably 500M households, which would be the real number.  

    Metric

    Netflix

    iQIYI

    Subscribers

    119 million

    60 million

    Sales in 2017

    $11.7 billion

    $2.7 billion

    Sales Growth in 2017

    32%

    55%

    Market Cap

    $144 billion

    $13 billion

     

    From my brief check, it seems like they charge $3/month (20 Yuan), so of course they are popular.   That's the price of a Big Mac in China so they should be able to raise prices, the way NFLX did once people became addicted but, to make NFLX's revenues, they'll always need double the subscribers, so they are farther behind than you think.

    Still, the massive premiums on the 2020s make them interesting and I do like the 2020 $15 ($11.80)/$22.50 ($8.20) bull call spread for $3.60 as we can absolutely make all that money back by selling short calls.  It's going to be crazy, so let's put it in the STP and play and with it.  Our trade will be:

    • Buy 20 IQ 2020 $15 calls for $11.80 ($23,600) 
    • Sell 20 IQ 2020 $22.50 calls for $8.20 ($16,400) 
    • Sell 5 IQ July $22.50 calls for $3 ($1,500) 

    That's net $5,700 on the spread and we're using 58 out of 604 days to sell our first round.  If we have 10 more sales like that, we can sell $15,000 worth of calls just doing 1/4 sales (so little chance of getting blown out) while we wait to see if we collect $15,000 on the spread.  

    If they crash, we can consider selling puts but, for now, I don't trust crazy Chinese companies but this one did spin out of Bidu, so they're probably legit.  

    Good notes, Yodi – thanks.

    AAPL/Deano – Down on slow phone sales report, not likely to pop.

    • Mary Meeker’s annual internet trends report is out and it says that 2017 was the first year where smartphone unit shipments didn’t grow. (Read the entire report at Recode.)
    • Meeker also notes that the global smartphone ASP is declining despite the high-profile releases of premium phones like the $1,000 iPhone X.   
    • According to new IDC data, the global smartphone market declined 0.3% last year and will contract again this year before returning to growth in 2019. 
    • IDC expects smartphone shipments to drop 0.2% this year to 1.5B units but expects a roughly 3% annual growth from 2019 on with shipments reaching 1.7B in 2022 and a five-year CAGR of 2.5%.
    • China’s smartphone market dropped 4.9% last year and IDC forecasts a 7.1% drop this year before “flattening out” in 2019. 
    • Forecasts for shipments and market share by platform: Android (GOOG +0.5%)(GOOGL+0.7%), 1.24M (84.8%; -0.5% Y/Y); iOS (AAPL -0.3%), 221.4M (15.1%; +2.6%); Others, 0.7M (0.1%; -66.8%).     
    • Previously: Meeker report: Amazon gains market share, China gains on US (May 30)





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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Monday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September is schedule for release at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Treasury is set to auction 3-and 6-month bills at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic DataNews Economics Pre-Market Outlook Markets

...

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Phil's Favorites

The Market Message of the Midterms

 

The Market Message of the Midterms

Courtesy of 

I really liked Ari Wald’s weekly chart book for Oppenheimer this weekend.

Ari is arguing that the put/call ratio has jumped to a pessimistic extreme auguring well for a short-term buying opportunity. He does not believe the downturn in market breadth (NYSE advance-decline line) has put in enough time to serve as confirmation that the top of the 2016-? cyclical rally has peaked.

For my Chart o’ the Day, here’s an interesting look at the current market environment versus the last time we traded through the midterm elections in 2014…

...



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Zero Hedge

Tesla Employees Describe Musk As Polarizing, Wasteful Micromanager In New Expose

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A new CNBC expose on Tesla, the product of conversations with 35 current and former employees, has revealed Elon Musk to be a polarizing and wasteful boss who micromanages too much.

The extended report gives yet another look into a personality and work environment that helps explain the exodus of senior executives that the company has suffered over its short lifespan; it also touches on some "creative" accounting allegedly taking ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock Market Crash Deja Vu? Keep An Eye On This Pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Just over 3 weeks ago, I shared a chart looking at the divergence that has been brewing under the surface of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY). Since that post, the S&P 500 finds itself in a deep pullback, with other key stock market indices hitting correction territory at their lows.

Today we provide another look at the divergence and highlight why it’s time for investors to pay closer attention. In the chart below, we compare today’s setup to 2000 and 2007 and the market crashes that followed.  Note, though, that we have NOT broken trend support yet.

Similar to today, in 2000 and 2007 the S&P 500 made a...



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Chart School

History Rhymes with the Dow

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The next 10 years, or even the next 2 years will not be like any of the years in the past 10. Risk is moving closer and closer to the surface.

More from RTT Tv

Market risks coming to the surface:

1) Higher interest rates.

2) US Congress control.

3) China vs USA in trade.

4) World wide Leverage.

5) World wide liquidity issues.

6) US Pensions.

7) Corporate bond market....



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Digital Currencies

Grocers: Get ready to join the blockchain party

 

Grocers: Get ready to join the blockchain party

Five people died and more than 200 got sick during a 2018 E. coli outbreak, the largest in more than a decade. The bacteria was traced to contaminated romaine lettuce. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Sylvain Charlebois, Dalhousie University

In the wake of this year’s large E. coli outbreak, Walmart notified its leafy green suppliers that they must be using blockchain technology to trace their products before the end of 2019.

Walmart, one of the world’s largest retailers, has be...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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