Sign up here for a 30-day FREE trial of our PSW Report! (NO Credit Card required.) Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

View Single Comment

  1. phil

    Nothing too exciting in the Webinar but we will have to adjust our hedges.  Notably, we need to dump DXD July $8 calls, last at 0.60 but I'm asking 0.70 (need a Dow dip) and then we'll transfer to new DXDs in the STP.

    IQ/Rookie – Where were you?

    Submitted on 2018/05/23 at 10:38 am

    IQ/Learner – $16Bn while losing $1Bn a year almost makes NFLX look attractive at $144Bn while making $500M.  NFLX has $12Bn in sales, IQ about $4Bn so if IQ made $12Bn, I bet they'd be profitable too but I doubt they are getting $10/month from Chinese people though I'm sure they can get content much cheaper….

    NFLX was doing $4Bn in 2013 and made $11M though.  IQ just IPO'd last month at $17 and already $23 after collecting $2.3Bn, which funds them for a couple of years.  They only have 60M subscribers out of 1.4Bn but, of course, that's probably 500M households, which would be the real number.  





    119 million

    60 million

    Sales in 2017

    $11.7 billion

    $2.7 billion

    Sales Growth in 2017



    Market Cap

    $144 billion

    $13 billion


    From my brief check, it seems like they charge $3/month (20 Yuan), so of course they are popular.   That's the price of a Big Mac in China so they should be able to raise prices, the way NFLX did once people became addicted but, to make NFLX's revenues, they'll always need double the subscribers, so they are farther behind than you think.

    Still, the massive premiums on the 2020s make them interesting and I do like the 2020 $15 ($11.80)/$22.50 ($8.20) bull call spread for $3.60 as we can absolutely make all that money back by selling short calls.  It's going to be crazy, so let's put it in the STP and play and with it.  Our trade will be:

    • Buy 20 IQ 2020 $15 calls for $11.80 ($23,600) 
    • Sell 20 IQ 2020 $22.50 calls for $8.20 ($16,400) 
    • Sell 5 IQ July $22.50 calls for $3 ($1,500) 

    That's net $5,700 on the spread and we're using 58 out of 604 days to sell our first round.  If we have 10 more sales like that, we can sell $15,000 worth of calls just doing 1/4 sales (so little chance of getting blown out) while we wait to see if we collect $15,000 on the spread.  

    If they crash, we can consider selling puts but, for now, I don't trust crazy Chinese companies but this one did spin out of Bidu, so they're probably legit.  

    Good notes, Yodi – thanks.

    AAPL/Deano – Down on slow phone sales report, not likely to pop.

    • Mary Meeker’s annual internet trends report is out and it says that 2017 was the first year where smartphone unit shipments didn’t grow. (Read the entire report at Recode.)
    • Meeker also notes that the global smartphone ASP is declining despite the high-profile releases of premium phones like the $1,000 iPhone X.   
    • According to new IDC data, the global smartphone market declined 0.3% last year and will contract again this year before returning to growth in 2019. 
    • IDC expects smartphone shipments to drop 0.2% this year to 1.5B units but expects a roughly 3% annual growth from 2019 on with shipments reaching 1.7B in 2022 and a five-year CAGR of 2.5%.
    • China’s smartphone market dropped 4.9% last year and IDC forecasts a 7.1% drop this year before “flattening out” in 2019. 
    • Forecasts for shipments and market share by platform: Android (GOOG +0.5%)(GOOGL+0.7%), 1.24M (84.8%; -0.5% Y/Y); iOS (AAPL -0.3%), 221.4M (15.1%; +2.6%); Others, 0.7M (0.1%; -66.8%).     
    • Previously: Meeker report: Amazon gains market share, China gains on US (May 30)

Sign up here for a 30-day FREE trial of our PSW Report! (NO Credit Card required.)

See our disclaimer here.


Phil's Favorites

Trump craves good press from the 'fake news' media - just look at his White House newsletter


Trump craves good press from the 'fake news' media – just look at his White House newsletter

Courtesy of Joseph Graf, American University School of Communication

Mainstream press coverage of President Trump has been unfavorable. Thomas Patterson found that 80 percent of stories in the first 100 days of the administration were negative in tone.

The president has attacked the media as “fake news” and journalists as “the enemy of the American people.”

The president’s anti-press assaults are so...

more from Ilene


Nanomedicine could revolutionise the way we treat TB. Here's how

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Nanomedicine could revolutionise the way we treat TB. Here's how

Nanomedicine could scupper the need for TB patients to take multiple daily tablets with toxic side effects. Daniel Irungu/EPA

Courtesy of Sarah D'Souza, University of the Western Cape and Admire Dube, University of the Western Cape

Tuberculosis is one of the world’s ...

more from Biotech


Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins: Working To Engage Multi-Cloud On All Fronts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Transcript: Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins Speaks with CNBC’s Jim Cramer Today

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

The following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins and CNBC’s Jim Cramer on “Squawk on the Street” (M-F 9AM – 11AM) today, Thursday, August 16. The following are links to video of the interview on

Cisco CEO: We are working to engage multi-cloud on all fronts

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins on earnings and...

more from ValueWalk

Zero Hedge

Turkey Rules Out Capital Controls As Germany Says IMF Bailout "Would Be Helpful"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

During this morning's conference call organized by Citi, HSBC and other banks with "thousands"  of investors, Turkey's Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak - the Jared Kushner of Turkey  - eased nerves when in an attempt to bolster confidence, said that capital controls were ruled out as a policy option for Turkey. As a reminder, capital controls are widely seen as the &...

more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

Are Interest Rates Peaking? Watch The Copper/Gold Ratio!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

If you spend time researching market relationships you can better understand money flows, rotation, and reasons why money flows rotate. This can be very helpful in identifying trend changes as well.

Today, we’ll look at the relationship between 10 Year US Treasury Bond Yield (INDEXCBOE: TNX) and the ratio of Copper (NYSEARCA: JJC) to Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Interest Rates Peaking?

Looking at the chart below, we can see that treasury yields and the Copper/Gold ratio tend to peak and bottom together – this has occurred several times over the past 5 years.

Currently, the 10 Year Yield is forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern (in red) at the same time that the Copper/Gold ratio is testing important support...

more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Argus Upgrades Lululemon On Multiple Growth Levers

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related LULU Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For August 16, 2018 3 Retailers Jim Cramer Says Are Winners In A Volatile Sector... more from Insider

Chart School

Bitcoin Update - 6000 is support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Demand shows it hand at support levels, well it obvious that $6000 BTCUSD is support so far.

More from RTT Tv , Ref: Brazil bitcoin currency , Brazil New Accounts


Main Chart in video


Sure fundamentals...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

What is a blockchain token?


What is a blockchain token?

What’s this digital token good for, anyway? knipsdesign/

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

People are just becoming acquainted with the idea of digital money in the form of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, where transactions are recorded on a secure distributed database called a blockchain. And now along comes a new concept: the blockchain-based token, which I’ve been following as a blockchain researcher a...

more from Bitcoin

Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...

more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...

more from M.T.M.


Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

more from OpTrader


Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

As Seen On:

About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>