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  1. phil

    Nothing too exciting in the Webinar but we will have to adjust our hedges.  Notably, we need to dump DXD July $8 calls, last at 0.60 but I'm asking 0.70 (need a Dow dip) and then we'll transfer to new DXDs in the STP.

    IQ/Rookie – Where were you?

    Submitted on 2018/05/23 at 10:38 am

    IQ/Learner – $16Bn while losing $1Bn a year almost makes NFLX look attractive at $144Bn while making $500M.  NFLX has $12Bn in sales, IQ about $4Bn so if IQ made $12Bn, I bet they'd be profitable too but I doubt they are getting $10/month from Chinese people though I'm sure they can get content much cheaper….

    NFLX was doing $4Bn in 2013 and made $11M though.  IQ just IPO'd last month at $17 and already $23 after collecting $2.3Bn, which funds them for a couple of years.  They only have 60M subscribers out of 1.4Bn but, of course, that's probably 500M households, which would be the real number.  

    Metric

    Netflix

    iQIYI

    Subscribers

    119 million

    60 million

    Sales in 2017

    $11.7 billion

    $2.7 billion

    Sales Growth in 2017

    32%

    55%

    Market Cap

    $144 billion

    $13 billion

     

    From my brief check, it seems like they charge $3/month (20 Yuan), so of course they are popular.   That's the price of a Big Mac in China so they should be able to raise prices, the way NFLX did once people became addicted but, to make NFLX's revenues, they'll always need double the subscribers, so they are farther behind than you think.

    Still, the massive premiums on the 2020s make them interesting and I do like the 2020 $15 ($11.80)/$22.50 ($8.20) bull call spread for $3.60 as we can absolutely make all that money back by selling short calls.  It's going to be crazy, so let's put it in the STP and play and with it.  Our trade will be:

    • Buy 20 IQ 2020 $15 calls for $11.80 ($23,600) 
    • Sell 20 IQ 2020 $22.50 calls for $8.20 ($16,400) 
    • Sell 5 IQ July $22.50 calls for $3 ($1,500) 

    That's net $5,700 on the spread and we're using 58 out of 604 days to sell our first round.  If we have 10 more sales like that, we can sell $15,000 worth of calls just doing 1/4 sales (so little chance of getting blown out) while we wait to see if we collect $15,000 on the spread.  

    If they crash, we can consider selling puts but, for now, I don't trust crazy Chinese companies but this one did spin out of Bidu, so they're probably legit.  

    Good notes, Yodi – thanks.

    AAPL/Deano – Down on slow phone sales report, not likely to pop.

    • Mary Meeker’s annual internet trends report is out and it says that 2017 was the first year where smartphone unit shipments didn’t grow. (Read the entire report at Recode.)
    • Meeker also notes that the global smartphone ASP is declining despite the high-profile releases of premium phones like the $1,000 iPhone X.   
    • According to new IDC data, the global smartphone market declined 0.3% last year and will contract again this year before returning to growth in 2019. 
    • IDC expects smartphone shipments to drop 0.2% this year to 1.5B units but expects a roughly 3% annual growth from 2019 on with shipments reaching 1.7B in 2022 and a five-year CAGR of 2.5%.
    • China’s smartphone market dropped 4.9% last year and IDC forecasts a 7.1% drop this year before “flattening out” in 2019. 
    • Forecasts for shipments and market share by platform: Android (GOOG +0.5%)(GOOGL+0.7%), 1.24M (84.8%; -0.5% Y/Y); iOS (AAPL -0.3%), 221.4M (15.1%; +2.6%); Others, 0.7M (0.1%; -66.8%).     
    • Previously: Meeker report: Amazon gains market share, China gains on US (May 30)





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Zero Hedge

A Storm Is Brewing In The Southern Gas Corridor

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Venand Meliksetian via OilPrice.com,

No less than Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Turkish Cypriot President Mustafa Akinci attended a gathering in Central Turkey on 12 June. The amount and variety of attendees of this meeting reveal a common interest in one field of geopolitical developments: energy and more specifically natural gas.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Visualizing The Global Export Economy In One Map

By RaulHowMuch.net

Visualizing the Global Export Economy in One Map

President Trump has loudly complained for quite some time about U.S. trade deficits with the world, most recently following the latest G7 summit in Canada. Trump’s rhetoric implies that other countries are enjoying massive surpluses at the expense of American workers. This got us thinking about how the U.S. actually compares as an exporter in the world economy, so we create our newest map.

...

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Chart School

Semiconductors Accelerate Losses

Courtesy of Declan.

There was no real change on the end-of-week position of markets. The Semiconductor Index was the most active with an undercut close of the week's swing low Next support level is the 50-day MA.


Despite the swing low undercut in the Semiconductor Index there were no breakout reversals for the Nasdaq or Nasdaq 100; indeed, the weakness may be viewed as a buying opportunity with a test of support.

...

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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Collapse Resumes After Japan's Largest Exchange Halts Account Creation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

What started off as a hopeful week of broadening user adoption is ending on a sour note as Japan's chief regulator launched a probe of crypto-exchanges, prompting the largest to halt account creation sending the entire crypto space lower...

As CNBC reports, the order...



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Insider Scoop

Booking Holdings Is Playing Catch-Up In Online Travel Growth Areas, Analyst Says In Downgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For June 22, 2018 Booking Holdings CEO Has Some Winning Travel Tips For ...

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Biotech

Opioids don't have to be addictive - the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opioids don't have to be addictive – the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Tao Che, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill

The problem with opioids is that they kill pain – and people. In the past three years, more than 125,000 persons died from an opioid overdose – an average of 115 people per day – exceeding the number killed in ...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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