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  1. phil

    Nothing too exciting in the Webinar but we will have to adjust our hedges.  Notably, we need to dump DXD July $8 calls, last at 0.60 but I'm asking 0.70 (need a Dow dip) and then we'll transfer to new DXDs in the STP.

    IQ/Rookie – Where were you?

    Submitted on 2018/05/23 at 10:38 am

    IQ/Learner – $16Bn while losing $1Bn a year almost makes NFLX look attractive at $144Bn while making $500M.  NFLX has $12Bn in sales, IQ about $4Bn so if IQ made $12Bn, I bet they'd be profitable too but I doubt they are getting $10/month from Chinese people though I'm sure they can get content much cheaper….

    NFLX was doing $4Bn in 2013 and made $11M though.  IQ just IPO'd last month at $17 and already $23 after collecting $2.3Bn, which funds them for a couple of years.  They only have 60M subscribers out of 1.4Bn but, of course, that's probably 500M households, which would be the real number.  





    119 million

    60 million

    Sales in 2017

    $11.7 billion

    $2.7 billion

    Sales Growth in 2017



    Market Cap

    $144 billion

    $13 billion


    From my brief check, it seems like they charge $3/month (20 Yuan), so of course they are popular.   That's the price of a Big Mac in China so they should be able to raise prices, the way NFLX did once people became addicted but, to make NFLX's revenues, they'll always need double the subscribers, so they are farther behind than you think.

    Still, the massive premiums on the 2020s make them interesting and I do like the 2020 $15 ($11.80)/$22.50 ($8.20) bull call spread for $3.60 as we can absolutely make all that money back by selling short calls.  It's going to be crazy, so let's put it in the STP and play and with it.  Our trade will be:

    • Buy 20 IQ 2020 $15 calls for $11.80 ($23,600) 
    • Sell 20 IQ 2020 $22.50 calls for $8.20 ($16,400) 
    • Sell 5 IQ July $22.50 calls for $3 ($1,500) 

    That's net $5,700 on the spread and we're using 58 out of 604 days to sell our first round.  If we have 10 more sales like that, we can sell $15,000 worth of calls just doing 1/4 sales (so little chance of getting blown out) while we wait to see if we collect $15,000 on the spread.  

    If they crash, we can consider selling puts but, for now, I don't trust crazy Chinese companies but this one did spin out of Bidu, so they're probably legit.  

    Good notes, Yodi – thanks.

    AAPL/Deano – Down on slow phone sales report, not likely to pop.

    • Mary Meeker’s annual internet trends report is out and it says that 2017 was the first year where smartphone unit shipments didn’t grow. (Read the entire report at Recode.)
    • Meeker also notes that the global smartphone ASP is declining despite the high-profile releases of premium phones like the $1,000 iPhone X.   
    • According to new IDC data, the global smartphone market declined 0.3% last year and will contract again this year before returning to growth in 2019. 
    • IDC expects smartphone shipments to drop 0.2% this year to 1.5B units but expects a roughly 3% annual growth from 2019 on with shipments reaching 1.7B in 2022 and a five-year CAGR of 2.5%.
    • China’s smartphone market dropped 4.9% last year and IDC forecasts a 7.1% drop this year before “flattening out” in 2019. 
    • Forecasts for shipments and market share by platform: Android (GOOG +0.5%)(GOOGL+0.7%), 1.24M (84.8%; -0.5% Y/Y); iOS (AAPL -0.3%), 221.4M (15.1%; +2.6%); Others, 0.7M (0.1%; -66.8%).     
    • Previously: Meeker report: Amazon gains market share, China gains on US (May 30)

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Zero Hedge

A Storm Is Brewing In The Southern Gas Corridor

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Venand Meliksetian via,

No less than Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Turkish Cypriot President Mustafa Akinci attended a gathering in Central Turkey on 12 June. The amount and variety of attendees of this meeting reveal a common interest in one field of geopolitical developments: energy and more specifically natural gas.


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Crypto-Collapse Resumes After Japan's Largest Exchange Halts Account Creation

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Courtesy of Tao Che, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill

The problem with opioids is that they kill pain – and people. In the past three years, more than 125,000 persons died from an opioid overdose – an average of 115 people per day – exceeding the number killed in ...

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Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...

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The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

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Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)


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Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

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Click here for the full report.

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About Phil:

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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