Comment by phil

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phil
August 14th, 2019 at 10:21 am

Nice CMG dip for our STP!  

Short-Term Portfolio (STP) Review:  $797,688 (up 697.7%) is up $59,700 since our 7/18 review, when the S&P was at 2,975 so we're down about 100 points (3.3%) and gaining $60,000 but, of course, most of our hedges are long-term, and aren't going to kick in until we're down closer to 10% – around 2,700.  3.3% is just a blip in the grand scheme of things.  

We got a bit less aggressive after last week's nice 5% dip and we'll add hedges back if we get below 5% this time.



• TLT – Fighting the Fed has about the same results as amateur bull-fighting.  
• Short Puts – BBBY and M suffering from Retail Purge but not worried about any of them.
• CMG – Crazy gains coming from our long calls, of all things, due to the higher VIX.  I think we should cash that first spread as we simply got lucky (the 2021 $800/980 spread with the 6 short Sept $800 calls).  We can leave the new one on instead. 



• DXD – Good for well over $100,000 net as we can roll the short Oct calls.  
• MJ – Tempting to add more but not now.
• SDS – $100,000 spread netting $13,000 so good for $87,000.
• SOYB – No china deal so let's kill this one.  



• SQQQ – $400,000 spread (short calls are rollable) is still our primary hedge.  Currently net $177,375 so net $220,000 protection.  



Since the LTP can easily drop another $300,000 – we'll have to be quick to add more hedges if those -5% lines (last week's lows) fail.