Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

“Doomed To Continue” – Saxo Warns Global Trade Recession Not Over Yet

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Christopher Dembik via Saxo Bank,

Global trade recession is doomed to continue to weight negatively on economic activity for a prolonged period, as shown by the latest CPB figures. It was out at minus 0.8% year-on-year in July versus minus 1.7% in June. The month-on-month rebound was quite strong, reaching 1.9% in July, but it is likely to be short-lived considering the evolution of the three-month moving average and of most up-to-date Asian surveys.

The three-month moving average keeps moving downward, at minus 0.8% YoY in July, which is its lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis. On the top of that, Asian trade indicators are still sending warning signal about the economy.

If we look at South Korea, whose economy is 50% export driven, we have a bunch of indicators confirming the slowdown will last longer than most expected at the beginning of the year. Preliminary export data for the month of October, covering the period from the 1st to the 10th, are very worrying. The drop reached minus 8.5% YoY, and it is expected to get worse in the rest of the month. So far, South Korean’s exports went through eleven straight months of contraction.

Source: Bloomberg

Global trade will be a considerable drag on global growth this year and probably next year as China will continue to import less and trade war risks remain elevated despite “phase 1” deal’s finalization last week in Washington.

Source: Bloomberg

The next release of the CPB World Trade Monitor is scheduled for 25 October 2019.

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!





You must be logged in to make a comment.
You can sign up for a membership or get a FREE Daily News membership or log in

Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!